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Boudewijn

(Way Too) Early RB Rankings 2019

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Based on a discussion in the Ezekiel Elliott thread, I did some number crunching on the top-5 RBs; I consider the main candidates to be CMC, Zeke, Saquon, Gurley and Kamara (in no particular order).
 

So let's compare career numbers for CMC, Zeke, Saquon, Gurley and Kamara.

Years

Games

games/year

touch/game

yd/game

rec/game

TD/game

Fmb/gm

CMC

2

32

16.0

16.3

95.3

7.4

0.6

0.2

Zeke

3

40

13.3

25.1

131.2

4.3

0.9

0.3

Saquon

1

16

16.0

22.0

126.8

7.6

0.9

0.0

Gurley

4

58

14.5

21.2

110.9

4.3

1.0

0.2

Kamara

2

31

15.5

15.4

101.5

6.6

1.0

0.1

 

CMC: had an insane year in 2018, but that's a one year sample. If you take both 2017 and 2018, he ranks the lowest of these 5, but of course we expect 2019 to be more like 2018. Very durable so far 
Zeke: highest yards, also highest touches per game. That could lead to durability issues in due time. Maybe less interesting in high PPR formats.
Saquon: fantastic year, high yards, high receptions, high TDs, but just a one season sample (where he was the entire NYG offense)
Gurley: longest career (but still young), High TD average, again fewer receptions for PPR formats. Had a recent knee issue, which always scares me.
Kamara: Good numbers, despite not having had a 300+ touch season so far. Could go even further with Ingram either gone or in a more limited role.

So the fact is, it'll be really interesting to separate these 5, and I'm looking forward to your rankings. State your format (Std, .5 PPR or PPR), and rank these studs, or add a name you consider also relevant in the discussion.

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.5ppr

 

Redraft:

Gurley

Saquon

Zeke

CMC

Kamara

 

Dynasty Start Up:

Saquon, 21, 1 year exp

CMC, 22, 2 

Zeke, 23, 3

Gurley, 24, 4

Kamara, 23, 2

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If I'm the 5th pick I rejoice getting any of them. The better focus of this thread would be RB6-RB20

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5 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

If I'm the 5th pick I rejoice getting any of them. The better focus of this thread would be RB6-RB20

Knock yourself out :) 


@elroypedro, you had a ranking in the Derrius Guice thread that made sense to me:

Quote

My Tiers

1

Barkley, Gurley, CMC, Zeke, Kamara.

2

Gordon, Mixon, Chubb, Cook, KJ, Conner

3

Guice, Fournette, DJ, Bell, Michel, A Jones, Lindsay


I'd like to add Cohen, Carson and White there somehow in tier 3 or 4.

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5 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Knock yourself out :) 

Gettin' late but I'll work on it tomorrow;)

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You can put the top 5 in any order actually and there would be an argument for it.

 

6 Melvin Gordon

7 Nick Chubb

8-12 Conner, Mixon, Bell, DJ, Cook in any order

 

8-12 are the guys where you could get Top 10 numbers but there is still a question mark to them (either team, staying healthy or coaching changes).

 

I'm super hot on Nick Chubb. Prediction: RB5+ in Std scoring

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1 hour ago, thebadferret said:

You can put the top 5 in any order actually and there would be an argument for it.

 

6 Melvin Gordon

7 Nick Chubb

8-12 Conner, Mixon, Bell, DJ, Cook in any order

 

8-12 are the guys where you could get Top 10 numbers but there is still a question mark to them (either team, staying healthy or coaching changes).

 

I'm super hot on Nick Chubb. Prediction: RB5+ in Std scoring

I agree on all of those.

 

I'd even expand the 8-12 group to include a few more guys like Aaron Jones etc.

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Superstars: Barkely, Gurley, Zeke

Stud RB1s: Kamara, CMC, Chubb, Gordon

Mid range RB1s: Conner, KC RB1, Mixon

Low end RB1s: Jones, DJ, Michel, Fournette

High end RB2s: Guice, Mack, Henry, Cook

Mid range RB2s: McKinnon, Carson

Low end RB2s: D Freeman, Kerryon, HOU RB1, Lindsay, Cohen

 

Will wait to see where Bell lands.

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46 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Superstars: Barkely, Gurley, Zeke

Stud RB1s: Kamara, CMC, Chubb, Gordon

Mid range RB1s: Conner, KC RB1, Mixon

Low end RB1s: Jones, DJ, Michel, Fournette

High end RB2s: Guice, Mack, Henry, Cook

Mid range RB2s: McKinnon, Carson

Low end RB2s: D Freeman, Kerryon, HOU RB1, Lindsay, Cohen

 

Will wait to see where Bell lands.

 

Maybe I'm too high on this 2 guys personally but I would rank them one category higher and if the stars align I see atleast one of them as Mid range RB1s

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1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

Superstars: Barkely, Gurley, Zeke

Stud RB1s: Kamara, CMC, Chubb, Gordon

Mid range RB1s: Conner, KC RB1, Mixon

Low end RB1s: Jones, DJ, Michel, Fournette

High end RB2s: Guice, Mack, Henry, Cook

Mid range RB2s: McKinnon, Carson

Low end RB2s: D Freeman, Kerryon, HOU RB1, Lindsay, Cohen

 

Will wait to see where Bell lands.

I would put Mcafferey in the “Superstar” category .. Dude absolutely killed this year and he still doesn’t get his just due smh 

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1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

Superstars: Barkely, Gurley, Zeke

Stud RB1s: Kamara, CMC, Chubb, Gordon

Mid range RB1s: Conner, KC RB1, Mixon

Low end RB1s: Jones, DJ, Michel, Fournette

High end RB2s: Guice, Mack, Henry, Cook

Mid range RB2s: McKinnon, Carson

Low end RB2s: D Freeman, Kerryon, HOU RB1, Lindsay, Cohen

 

Will wait to see where Bell lands.

 

I'd have to elevate CMC to the Superstar level. 

Chubb down to the mid-range RB1, maybe low-end RB1. 

Johnson up to mid-range RB1 ith the new HC hire. 

If the Jags hire McCoy as their OC, will Fournette remain in the RB1 conversation, especially with his injury history? 

If AP doesn't sign with the Redskins, I think Guice should get bumped up to Low end RB1 level. 

Will McKinnon get enough touches to be a mid-RB2? 

Kerryon at least a High end RB2, imho. 

 

Where does Ingram fit in? If he stays in NOLA, I'd guess mid-RB2. If he goes elsewhere and is the bellcow, he has legit mid-RB1 ability. 

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8 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Where does Ingram fit in? If he stays in NOLA, I'd guess mid-RB2.

 

I'd probably still draft all those other guys ahead of him.

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51 minutes ago, thebadferret said:

Maybe I'm too high on this 2 guys personally but I would rank them one category higher and if the stars align I see atleast one of them as Mid range RB1s

 

I love Kerryon Johsnon as much as anyone.  But I want to see a Lions RB do it over a whole season before I draft them as a top 16 RB.

 

Dalvin's OL and OC turnover worries me too much.  And his injury history.  Wouldn't surprise me if he was an RB1 again, just pricing in risk.

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2 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

I'd have to elevate CMC to the Superstar level.

 

For me, I worry about Cam's shoulder and about a little let down after the massive (I'd argue unsustainable) volume.  Wouldn't surprise me to see him do it again though, just my own concerns.

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22 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

No real love for the fantasy football playoffs MVP and #1 overall RB weeks 14-17...........Derrick Henry.

 

3rd OC in 3 years coming in, I worry the offense struggles yet again. 

 

Also he can disappear if Titans get in a big hole. 

 

I've got him as a high end RB2 and think he improves his output year over year again, but there's just too many other guys that don't have the concerns that he does.

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8 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

3rd OC in 3 years coming in, I worry the offense struggles yet again. 

 

Also he can disappear if Titans get in a big hole. 

 

I've got him as a high end RB2 and think he improves his output year over year again, but there's just too many other guys that don't have the concerns that he does.

 

I agree. I saw a thread for best RBs 2019 and had to come get my Henry jab in.

 

Titans are promoting from within to fill the OC position so maybe that helps. End of the season was enticing to see what he is capable of.

 

Only 3-4 receiving targets a game would be enough to raise his fantasy floor tremendously. Hope Titans upgrade OLine wherever possible.

 

If you subscribe to the train of thought that players try harder in a contract year to try to get a big $$$ contract then 2019 is Henrys year.

 

I'm hoping for a top 10 RB finish. 

 

If they can figure out a way to use him in the passing game he can go even higher.

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15 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Titans are promoting from within

 

I read Mark Helfrich could be the guy, and if so, I wouldn't like it.  He's a Chip Kelly spread/option disciple.

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auction values, I think the top 5 guys (CMC, Gurley, Zeke, Barkely and Kamara) in that order are going for $65 min in a 12 team $200 league.  I would expect at least a few to go in the low $70s during my draft and in the past i think maybe 1 or 2 guys have ever gone more than $70.  

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Every year i pass on the top5 rb's and i buy all of the  fallen angel starters I can after the top 5

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7 minutes ago, RUGOO said:

auction values, I think the top 5 guys (CMC, Gurley, Zeke, Barkely and Kamara) in that order are going for $65 min in a 12 team $200 league.  I would expect at least a few to go in the low $70s during my draft and in the past i think maybe 1 or 2 guys have ever gone more than $70.  

 

I buy starting rb's  $50 and under,  sweet spot in the $20-30 range which always seems to work out for me

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No one bumping Kamara to the top with the future absence of Ingram...interesting.

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1 minute ago, psygolf said:

No one bumping Kamara to the top with the future absence of Ingram...interesting.

 

I personally think that Ingram is replaced by someone good even if he leaves.   I expect Kamara's usage to match what he got this season.  Maybe a slight uptick, but I dont see them running him into the ground.    Their offense works best with Kamara not running it 300 times.   That said, I still like Kamara nearly as much as the rest of these top guys in PPR, i'm just not ready to 1-5 yet. 

 

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14 hours ago, Gohawks said:

CMC

Elliot

Barkley

Gurley

Kamara

 

 

CMC+Barkley were on bad offenses playing from behind  and both have QB's returning next year with big question marks

I prefer to bet on the  Gurley+elliot+kamara with teams that made the playoffs, winning records and more stable QB situations. if I am spending high draft capital.

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