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(Way Too) Early RB Rankings 2019

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10 minutes ago, Forestbull said:

Jacobs has only one game to go on and he had less than half of the rushing yards as Mack.

Mack has dominated against great rush defenses in the past.

The only bad thing is he used to get game scripted out. This offseason the staff said they wanted him as an every down back and they had him in there when they were in a negative game script.

I dont understand how you can rank Jacobs over him. 

Gurley is obviously a better talent but it seems they are gonna limit him and be in a timeshare with Brown. The worst part is Brown got all the goal lines carries.

Fournette has been trending in the wrong direction. 

 

 

I'm with you on Gurley. That knee scares the crap out of me. Given the fact that they limited his touches and he avoided contact the way he did after they drafted an RB in the 3rd, signed M Brown again and hearing all summer that no one knew how TG's arthritic knee would react, it seems to me like the Rams just used him exactly the way they did in the play offs: limited touches and no goal line work. 

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It's not just the guys I am arguing with on this thread but seems to be the majority of players are still sleeping on Mack. That OL is the best rushing unit I have seen in awhile. I think it is still a great opportunity to buy low. Even after the 174 yd game (2019 rushing leader)

Btw since returning from his injury last season (week 6) he has a better ypc number than the guy in Texas who is now the highest paid RB.

 

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Everyone getting so defensive about their RBs.  My guy's better.  No my guy is better!

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I don't think anyone is defensive... Just trying to make their cases.

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7 minutes ago, TTo34 said:

Everyone getting so defensive about their RBs.  My guy's better.  No my guy is better!

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I'm in too many leagues, just about everyone is my guy 

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6 minutes ago, TTo34 said:

Everyone getting so defensive about their RBs.  My guy's better.  No my guy is better!

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I don't own any of the guys being discussed, I just think it's laughable to be vaulting players up your rankings because they're the "2019 rushing leader". This is how leagues are won and lost in trades. 

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20 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

I don't own any of the guys being discussed, I just think it's laughable to be vaulting players up your rankings because they're the "2019 rushing leader". This is how leagues are won and lost in trades. 

Did Mack not play last year?

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On 9/6/2019 at 2:59 PM, FFCollusion said:

***Full Point PPR***

2019RB.png

T1: Self Explanatory.  Giants sucked last year, OBJ was out 4 games, and Barkley was still a beast.  The entire offense runs through him, and the possibility of Daniel Jones theoretically only adds to his upside.  Zeke, now that he's signed, is the only other legit workhorse in the league with zero 'on field' question marks.  He doesn't catch as many passes as Barkley, only reason he isn't #1.

T2: We'll start with the hate early.  Gurley was significantly more productive than Zeke and Barkley last year when he was 100%.  I'm not sure I'm buying this arthritis stuff, but that could easily backfire.  But Jay Ajayi's knee was 'bone on bone' and he was able to run for 200 yards a game just fine.  On top of that, CJ Anderson came in and was equally as productive as Gurley across the board... potentially a negative for some, but what that tells me, is that Gurley can show up at 50% and still be a top 5 back. No offense to CJA, but let's be real.  Bell is a polarizing player for the fantasy community this year (and last).  You either believe or you don't.  I believe he's one of the best backs in the league, period.  His team doesn't scare me as much as his running style (patience) and whether or not it will successfully transfer to a new o-line/offense.

T3: CMC and Kamara are Elite RBs on good teams that catch the ball better than anyone else.  Both are easily justified as #1 off the board, I support that mentality, just not my personal preference.  DJ is only held back by the question marks of his offense, combined with his past struggles with injuries in my opinion.  Could easily be #1 back at the end of the year, but the unknowns drop him to #7.

T4: Conner and Mixon.  Look great but short track records and massive offensive shifts this offseason.

T5: Carson, Cook, Fournette.  Talent, Situation and Opportunity to be top 5 backs... that might combine for a total of 16 games played this year.  The upside is there, so is the risk.  I ranked them in order of how valuable I think they'll be 'while healthy'.

T6: The first cliff in my opinion.  Freeman was once upon a time the #1 RB of the year by a large margin, but that was long ago.  Coleman gone, if he can stay healthy, on this offense, he has the potential to return to that level of production, but age is creeping.  Jacobs is a rookie, and unknown, but should get all the opportunities in the world to be a top 12 back, and AB opens this offense significantly.  Lynch ran for about 900 yards in '17. Doug Martin ran for about 800 in '18.  Jacobs (at this time in their careers) doesn't have to be much better to eclipse the 1k mark easily.  Sony Michel looks incredible in my opinion.  His concerns are due to health and hoodie BUT... he's on one of the most reliable offenses in the league, was 6th in Red Zone Rushes last year despite missing 3 games, and Gronk, their previous #1 Red Zone threat is now gone.  Edelman, Gordon, and DT are an upgrade across the board to Hogan, Amendola, and... I can't even remember, Dorsett?  Tom's arm in decline, and another Super Bowl run on the horizon.  I've been a Mark Ingram fan for a long time, I think he's criminally undervalued by not only the fantasy community but by the NO coaching staff for years.  Now we'll finally see what happens when/if he has a bellcow role.  Might get vultured by Jackson from time to time, but this offense is going to run, run, and run, and the running QB opens lanes for RBs.

T7: Everyone will cry about Chubb here and it's fair and justified.  I'm not a slave to ADP or expert ranks.  In fact, I haven't even seen any expert ranks.  I didn't see enough of Chubb last year, this strikes me as a team that wants to emphasize Baker and the passing game of OBJ/Landry.  I'm sure Chubb will be fine, but I've seen this organization mishandle RBs for the last 5 years (minimum) and... I'm not as sold on Baker and this offense as everyone else in the entire world.  Henry... has sucked his entire life except for 2 games.  The upside is enormous (like him) but I don't trust him and the Titans suck.  Lindsay had a really nice season last year, but was arguably the quietest 1k rushing season I can ever remember, on a forgettable team, that for some reason wants to force the issue with Royce Freeman... don't ask me.
Basically, these are 3 guys who could easily be top 12 backs, but it won't be on my team.  I'd rather see them be RB1s on someone else's team, than RB3s on mine.

T8: White and Cohen.  Criminally underrated and under valued as PPR studs, but because they do it in a non-typical manner, people overlook them.  Even I'm too low and  I love these guys.  They take way less beating, yards come easier, and TDs are never expected, always icing!  White finished 7th overall last year and Cohen ended 11th, and neither of them broke 100 carries.  Guys like this never get taken out of the game due to game script and when trailing they eat up those dump offs like crazy.

T9: Hey these guys might be 3 down backs but... <reasons>

T10: Melvin Gordon... Gotta rank him somewhere right?  Required to play 6 games minimum, and the team has a week 12 bye.  That means he has to be back for Week 11.  Can't trust him week 11, bye week 12, you probably start him for weeks 13, 14, 15, and 16 before the fantasy season ends.  That 'could' be a playoff changing player for whoever gets him at his ~6th-7th round price, and since he's listed as out, you toss him in IR and forget about it.  In the 6th round, you probably have the core of your team drafted, this is a top 12 fantasy RB that will be fresh when you need him most.  If he comes back any sooner, it's gravy.

T11: Kerryon and Damian Williams... Might be workhorse backs for their teams or Or ORRRRRR they might be committee backs.  I have much more faith in Kerryon than Damian, but at their actual ADPs, both are DND for me anyways, so their rank isn't really relevant in the grand scheme.

T12: Duke and Barber.  Duke's upside is significantly higher, probably deserves to be at least 1 tier higher.  Additionally he comes with a real safety net of 'White/Cohen-lite' at the very least, with realistic potential to be just as valuable as them overall.  Barber... no one WANTS to own him... even if you own him you don't WANT to start him... but you can't deny the workload for as long as it exists.

T13: McCoy and Hyde.  The old guys everyone loves to hate.  But that deep down everyone knows there's a coin flip chance that they are the #1 backs on their teams.  How effective or valuable they can be in that role is up for debate.  Both could return RB2 value if things break right for them, but there are multiple concerns preventing anyone from buying that possibility.  Understandable, however they're both dirt cheap I own them both all over the place and just along for the ride with zero expectations.

T14: Committee backs that could prove they deserve to get the lions share, but we all know it's probably not going to happen and you'll be stuck with them rotting on your bench all year, because god forbid someone picks them up and THAT'S the week the coaching staff gives them 20 touches all of the sudden.

There's a couple other names that deserve mention and probably someone I completely forgot but oh well.
Whoever gets the majority of the LAC workload should be top 24... somewhere. Ekeler or Jackson.
Drake...  Some people believe, I'd rather take the guy I haven't seen suck for 3 years straight and take the complete unknown in Ballage, but it could quite possibly be Drake that runs away with the job out of nowhere.  Breida and L.Murray deserve mentions.  Breida looked great last year I don't think I want any part of the 9ers until I see signs of life.  Maybe next year.  Mark Ingram, in my opinion, is multiple times better than L.Murray... and Ingram couldn't be relied on last year in your lineup, so I'm not touching Murray.  I don't believe in Penny, I called Howard a bust before last season and my stance hasn't changed.  Prior to this week, I would have ranked Adrian Peterson well inside the top 36, but now he might be a healthy scratch?  What the hell happened there.  Ty Montgomery had some nice flashes on GB, but LeVeon is such a good pass catcher on his own, I'm not sure TyMont can be the Duke/Cohen/White of that team. Darwin... Everyone loves him, but 2 backs "ahead" of him. Emphasis on the air quotes.  I think CJ Anderson will be more involved than anyone wants to admit.  Chris Thompson is a guy that shows up for 3-5 weeks, absolutely dominates and then disappears again.  If he ever locks that role down consistently, look out.  After Week 1, newly signed veteran salaries are no longer guaranteed; I'll be keeping an ear to the ground Mon/Tues for Jay Ajayi rumors.

 

IF I were overreacting to Week 1, my update would look something like this.
*Still Full Point PPR*

Week1.png

Top 7 remain unchanged, with the exception of Bell and Gurley swapped.
One more week of committee Gurley and he falls behind CMC and Kamara

D.Cook was the best looking RB on the field last week in my opinion, I mean that.  If he stays healthy he has just as good a chance to finish top 5 as anyone.
Carson was exactly what I expected.  This tier leap-frogged Conner/Mixon.  I'm assuming Mixon only misses 1 week and that maybe they can run the ball in a game.  Steelers imploded which I enjoyed, but I'm sure they'll bounce back.  Incredibly pretentious to assume Bell and AB can walk away and nothing changes.
Henry, Mack, and Ekeler all deserved their large jumps.  I still need to see Henry do it for a longer period before I believe/invest.  Mack looked great, we'll see how the IND situation plays out without Luck, so far so good.  Ekeler will eventually lose his job so it's tough to properly value him, but if you own him, you start him until Gordon shows up.

Michel, Freeman, Chubb all $#!+ the bed, but I'm partially ignoring it... for now.

White and Cohen "are who we thought they were."

Kerryon is splitting with CJA as expected and in an OT game, the numbers may be inflated for both.
Gordon... Assuming he shows up for Week 10.
Damien, the loss of Tyreek keeps his outlook safe for now, I think McCoy is coming though.  Likely a committee all year but great offense.

A bunch of guys who could be 3 down backs for their teams, but the team sucks or refuses to commit.  Flip a coin, but Singletary looked the most interesting.  I should have put him at the top of this tier, but god that offense is awful.

Duke, Thompson, and Burkhead... the lesser versions of White/Cohen, fun to own in PPR as pseudo WRs in the RB position.

AP's value depends on Thompson's involvement, whether McLaurin/Keenum was a fluke, and the health of Guice.  McCoy and Hyde are coming for lead back roles, but will both be sharing touches with CoP backs for the time being.  Might be a few weeks, might be all year.

Ballage, Sanders, D.Mont are just stuck in 3 way committees, or the worst offense in the league.  I chose Ballage over Drake because I expect more garbage time, less Goal Line opportunities.  Murray, despite 1 nice run, is still a worse version of Ingram.  6 Carries, 3 targets isn't dependable.  Maybe a different story if the Saints are blowing someone out and he's just killing clock, but that's a hard pass for me.

I'm not buying M.Brown, Sproles, Hilliard, or Gallman.  I am buying Burkhead.  I'm keeping an eye on Mike Davis.  Gio is a nice 1 week rental, but that's all I expect.

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54 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

 

 

I'm with you on Gurley. That knee scares the crap out of me. Given the fact that they limited his touches and he avoided contact the way he did after they drafted an RB in the 3rd, signed M Brown again and hearing all summer that no one knew how TG's arthritic knee would react, it seems to me like the Rams just used him exactly the way they did in the play offs: limited touches and no goal line work. 

 

This bears mentioning. I watched the game and I count at least 2 times where Gurley jogged out of bounds rather than fight for the extra 2 yards. That and being on a snapcount must be worrisome, but he's an interesting buy low if you managed to get Malcolm Brown this week.

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It's true if you overreact in a week 2 trade, it could be terrible for your team ...

 

What also is terrible, is missing your chance to buy someone trending upwards before they hit (or everyone is onboard the train)... While releasing others that were overhyped or not panning out before they bust without value.

Edited by ponza88
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19 minutes ago, stickman786 said:

Where would you guys rank MArk ingram? Guss got more carrys though was  inefficient.

Probably had to do with the game being over at halftime and a blowout.

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Another stab at ROS Rankings:
Tier 1

1. Zeke

2. Barkley

3. CMC

4. Cook

Tier 2

5. Kamara

6. DJ

7. Chubb

8. Lev Bell

Tier 3

9. Josh Jacobs

10. Todd Gurley

11. Aaron Jones

Tier 4

12. Fournette

13. Carson

14. Marlon Mack

15. Derrick Henry

16. Austin Ekeler

Tier 5

17. Sony Michel

18. Kerryon Johnson

19. James Conner

20. Joe Mixon

21. Mark Ingram

22. David Montgomery

Tier 6

23. Damien Williams

24. Matt Breida

25. Miles Sanders

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49 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

Another stab at ROS Rankings:
Tier 1

1. Zeke

2. Barkley

3. CMC

4. Cook

Tier 2

5. Kamara

6. DJ

7. Chubb

8. Lev Bell

Tier 3

9. Josh Jacobs

10. Todd Gurley

11. Aaron Jones

Tier 4

12. Fournette

13. Carson

14. Marlon Mack

15. Derrick Henry

16. Austin Ekeler

Tier 5

17. Sony Michel

18. Kerryon Johnson

19. James Conner

20. Joe Mixon

21. Mark Ingram

22. David Montgomery

Tier 6

23. Damien Williams

24. Matt Breida

25. Miles Sanders

Stopped reading when I saw Ekeler at 16.

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21 minutes ago, ponchsox said:

Stopped reading when I saw Ekeler at 16.

 

You think it’s too high or too low?

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1 minute ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

You think it’s too high or too low?

He belongs in the third tier, even with the threat of Gordon’s return.

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1 hour ago, Chwf3rd said:

Another stab at ROS Rankings:
Tier 1

1. Zeke

2. Barkley

3. CMC

4. Cook

Tier 2

5. Kamara

6. DJ

7. Chubb

8. Lev Bell

Tier 3

9. Josh Jacobs

10. Todd Gurley

11. Aaron Jones

Tier 4

12. Fournette

13. Carson

14. Marlon Mack

15. Derrick Henry

16. Austin Ekeler

Tier 5

17. Sony Michel

18. Kerryon Johnson

19. James Conner

20. Joe Mixon

21. Mark Ingram

22. David Montgomery

Tier 6

23. Damien Williams

24. Matt Breida

25. Miles Sanders

 

Lions are about to give up this committee nonsense. Kerryon tier 3 with tier 2 upside. Buy low now.

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15 minutes ago, ponchsox said:

He belongs in the third tier, even with the threat of Gordon’s return.

 

I get having him up there but I think Gordon gets his old role back 

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15 minutes ago, ponchsox said:

He belongs in the third tier, even with the threat of Gordon’s return.

Oh please, of course you have to bake Melvin coming back week 8-10 into these rankings. I think he belongs in tier 4 (though probably right after Fournette), and then drops to that tier 6 group when Melvin comes back.

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2 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

I get having him up there but I think Gordon gets his old role back 

Doesn’t matter. He will score enough fantasy points through 10 weeks Plus with Gordon to finish there. I’ll bet he finishes with more fantasy points than LF.

Edited by ponchsox

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On 9/16/2019 at 2:43 PM, Chwf3rd said:

Another stab at ROS Rankings:
Tier 1

1. Zeke

2. Barkley

3. CMC

4. Cook

Tier 2

5. Kamara

6. DJ

7. Chubb

8. Lev Bell

Tier 3

9. Josh Jacobs

10. Todd Gurley

11. Aaron Jones

Tier 4

12. Fournette

13. Carson

14. Marlon Mack

15. Derrick Henry

16. Austin Ekeler

Tier 5

17. Sony Michel

18. Kerryon Johnson

19. James Conner

20. Joe Mixon

21. Mark Ingram

22. David Montgomery

Tier 6

23. Damien Williams

24. Matt Breida

25. Miles Sanders

Just thought it might be helpful to list top 25 in pts so far this season after 2 weeks to show how they differ from expectations.

Ekeler

Cook

CMC

D Henry...if include last night he comes in first...barely.

Jacobs

Ingram

Zeke

Saquon 

Mack

DJ

Bell

Malcolm Brown

Carson

Mostert 

Aaron Jones

Chubb

Gurley

Devin Singletary

Jeff Wilson

Kerryon

Barber

Damien

Fournette...this is after 3 games played...ouch.

Montgomery

James White

 

The difference between Ekeler and tenth place guy is avg of 8pts a game. Diff to 20th place is over 12 pts a game.

Cook and Austin E are the only two guys who have had great games back to back. Others have had great game mixed with so so game. 

Henry and Mack are the guys that seem to get under ranked the most to me considering their volume. 

Fournette has to be biggest bust.

And Zeke has to be fave to lead league at RB ROS.

Also Conner and Kamarra just missed top 25 in my leagues although dependong on settings your leagues may have them ranked higher

Edited by David447
Mispelling

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Remember when everyone had Kerryon and Mack ahead of Jones? 😆

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4 minutes ago, pbjfb said:

Remember when everyone had Kerryon and Mack ahead of Jones? 😆

Remember when 2 games have been played

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22 minutes ago, pbjfb said:

Remember when everyone had Kerryon and Mack ahead of Jones? 😆

You can make a good argument for having Mack rated over Jones simply based on volume. Jones is on a much better offense though. 

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