Boudewijn

(Way Too) Early RB Rankings 2019

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42 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

You are just making that up. See above for the actual stats that blow your random idea out of the water

 

Woah.  I'm obliterated out of the water with those facts.

 

Couple months with a hurt Cam won't be the same as a whole season, now that teams have some tape.

 

What you have is an anecdote.  Bad QB play = less scoring = worse for everyone on the offense... those are the real facts.

Edited by Lord_Varys
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24 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

I want to see CMC do it again before I draft him before Kamara or Zeke 

 

I feel a good portion of his appeal is snap count ( unsustainable at his position ) and usage ( unsustainable at his position)

 

He will either burn bright next 2 years and fizzle out hard or he will be scaled back a bit.  That's why I want to wait a see, no way he breaks his own RB pass catching record next year though unless the perfect storm of the Carolina QB situation occurs again. 

 

Yeah, 91 percent snap count. Was any other RB even close? Gurley was at 75, Saquon at 83, and Zeke at 82. Surely CMC won't repeat that next year. And like you said, he won't repeat or break his RB receiving record. 

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13 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Yeah, 91 percent snap count. Was any other RB even close? Gurley was at 75, Saquon at 83, and Zeke at 82. Surely CMC won't repeat that next year. And like you said, he won't repeat or break his RB receiving record. 

 

Barkley = ineffective QB/line play, lost TE and stud wr at various parts of season, losing team

CMC=  injured QB, lost vet TE, losing team

zeke=   stagnant offense, mediocre QB play, was a losing team but they turned it around

gurley=  solid QB play, winning team, slight injury

Edited by dashoe

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CMC is getting too much disrespect in this thread. Barkley also only has done it one year and his QB situation is going to get worse as well as Manning will just decline yet no one gives him s---.

 

The second half of the season CMC was the best fantasy performer and it wasn't even close. Second place was damn near a TD behind him per game in terms of average. 

 

Over the second half of the season CMC averaged more than Gurley did over the first half. The same Gurley that people were proclaiming a cheat code, MVP candidate, unfair, and etc. Sure, he isn't in that tier though.

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

CMC is getting too much disrespect in this thread. Barkley also only has done it one year and his QB situation is going to get worse as well as Manning will just decline yet no one gives him s---.

 

The second half of the season CMC was the best fantasy performer and it wasn't even close. Second place was damn near a TD behind him per game in terms of average. 

 

Over the second half of the season CMC averaged more than Gurley did over the first half. The same Gurley that people were proclaiming a cheat code, MVP candidate, unfair, and etc. Sure, he isn't in that tier though.

 

 

Oh please dude stop it, no one is disrespecting CMC, everyone is valid in correlating his 2nd half performance to Cam's health and  the team losing 7 out of 8 games. 

The issue is with his SITUATION not his TALENT. 

You guys need to be able to comprehend the difference :lol:

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

CMC is getting too much disrespect in this thread. Barkley also only has done it one year and his QB situation is going to get worse as well as Manning will just decline yet no one gives him s---.

 

The second half of the season CMC was the best fantasy performer and it wasn't even close. Second place was damn near a TD behind him per game in terms of average. 

 

Over the second half of the season CMC averaged more than Gurley did over the first half. The same Gurley that people were proclaiming a cheat code, MVP candidate, unfair, and etc. Sure, he isn't in that tier though.

 

I don't see anyone questioning his value during the second half of 2018. What I see (and agree with) is folks questioning his ability to duplicate that in 2019. As for Barkley, I have seen some questioning whether he can repeat 2018. Personally, I see neither Barkley nor CMC repeating their 2018 seasons. It's not a lack of respect, but rather offensive issues that won't repeat themselves in 2019, imho. I believe both offenses will find other weapons on offense they can lean on to preserve the mileage on their two star RBs. 

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3 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

Oh please dude stop it, no one is disrespecting CMC, everyone is valid in correlating his 2nd half performance to Cam's health and  the team losing 7 out of 8 games. 

The issue is with his SITUATION not his TALENT. 

You guys need to be able to comprehend the difference :lol:

It's disrespectful to not mention him with those dudes period. I don't care what you validate it as.  Everyone has questions. Gurley isn't even touching the ball and has questions of playing when it matters most, Barkley has Eli and only one year, Kamara has Ingram, and Elliot has a terrible coach and mediocre QB. Over 30 PPG for the second half of the season is impressive no matter how you slice it. 

 

Out of everyone, I think Elliot is the safest pick. Either way, I really couldn't care less who I get if i am picking top 4.

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19 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

It's disrespectful to not mention him with those dudes period. I don't care what you validate it as.  Everyone has questions. Gurley isn't even touching the ball and has questions of playing when it matters most, Barkley has Eli and only one year, Kamara has Ingram, and Elliot has a terrible coach and mediocre QB. Over 30 PPG for the second half of the season is impressive no matter how you slice it. 

 

Out of everyone, I think Elliot is the safest pick. Either way, I really couldn't care less who I get if i am picking top 4.

 

1. None of those other teams lost their last 7 of 9 games and their offenses completely meltdown due to their QB being injured

2. Context is important not citing a players ppg over a sample size

 

yeah but out of  Gurley-zeke-barkley-kamara, CMC is the only rb on an offense that has no idea as to the health of their starting QB

You know what u will get from Dak-Eli-Goff-Brees in predicting how those offenses will operate and add to the mix Rivera is entering next season on the hot seat

Edited by dashoe

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19 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

It's disrespectful to not mention him with those dudes period. I don't care what you validate it as.  Everyone has questions. Gurley isn't even touching the ball and has questions of playing when it matters most, Barkley has Eli and only one year, Kamara has Ingram, and Elliot has a terrible coach and mediocre QB. Over 30 PPG for the second half of the season is impressive no matter how you slice it. 

 

Out of everyone, I think Elliot is the safest pick. Either way, I really couldn't care less who I get if i am picking top 4.

 

Definitely impressive...definitely a stud in 2018...definitely a 1st rd pick in 2019. But I don't think he'll repeat 2018's numbers. No one is saying he wasn't a top 2 RB in 2018, and no one is saying he wasn't the best RB in fantasy over the last half of 2018. But I don't see how it's disrespectful to say he won't repeat those numbers in 2019. 

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3 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Definitely impressive...definitely a stud in 2018...definitely a 1st rd pick in 2019. But I don't think he'll repeat 2018's numbers. No one is saying he wasn't a top 2 RB in 2018, and no one is saying he wasn't the best RB in fantasy over the last half of 2018. But I don't see how it's disrespectful to say he won't repeat those numbers in 2019. 

That's not disrespectful. However, not even mentioning him with the other guys is. Even if he averaged 50 yards less per game over the second half of the season he would still have been #1. So even with fairly significant regression, he would have been the best either way.

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11 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Definitely impressive...definitely a stud in 2018...definitely a 1st rd pick in 2019. But I don't think he'll repeat 2018's numbers. No one is saying he wasn't a top 2 RB in 2018, and no one is saying he wasn't the best RB in fantasy over the last half of 2018. But I don't see how it's disrespectful to say he won't repeat those numbers in 2019. 

 

 

 

We saw the same reaction last year with DJ and his fanboys saying those discounting his future production were crazy and being irrational but  it was quickly demonstrated how a new QB and coaching staff can affect a players outcome the following season regardless of how studly they were in a previous season.

Now DJ went from guaranteed top 3 stud talk to maybe he can be a stud again  2nd-3rd rd pick :lol:

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10 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

 

We saw the same reaction last year with DJ and his fanboys saying those discounting his future production were crazy and being irrational but  it was quickly demonstrated how a new QB and coaching staff can affect a players outcome the following season regardless of how studly they were in a previous season.

Now DJ went from guaranteed top 3 stud talk to maybe he can be a stud again  2nd-3rd rd pick :lol:

I want to clarify that I am assuming Newton will not sit out 2019.

 

Comparing apples to oranges. Cardinals got a new coach and a rookie QB (wasn't even anything special as a prospect). The same coach is still coaching the Panthers and as far as I am aware Newton is their QB until we hear otherwise. Also, Cardinals were actually quite decimated with injuries on their line so it didn't help either. 

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2 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I want to clarify that I am assuming Newton will not sit out 2019.

 

Comparing apples to oranges. Cardinals got a new coach and a rookie QB (wasn't even anything special as a prospect). The same coach is still coaching the Panthers and as far as I am aware Newton is their QB until we hear otherwise. Also, Cardinals were actually quite decimated with injuries on their line so it didn't help either. 

 

 

That wasnt a direct comp.  It was an example of how a change in situation can drop a bona fide stud top3 pick rb into an above average cross fingers maybe he can be a stud again rb. 

The point is how situation is more relevant to rb performance than talent or what the rb did the previous season.

 out of gurley-zeke-barkley-kamara. .  cmc has the biggest question mark in terms of situation next season with his stud QB currently injured and don't forget Rivera is in the hot seat.

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Still no actual reason why CMC will be worse posted in this thread. In fact, nothing even close to a valid argument has been presented. Just random conjecture. 

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3 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

Still no actual reason why CMC will be worse posted in this thread. In fact, nothing even close to a valid argument has been presented. Just random conjecture. 

 

Truthfully, on January 23, everything written is conjecture. The reasons some believe he will have less production in 2019 is conjecture...the reasons why others believe he will repeat it is also conjecture. 

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

 

That wasnt a direct comp.  It was an example of how a change in situation can drop a bona fide stud top3 pick rb into an above average cross fingers maybe he can be a stud again rb. 

The point is how situation is more relevant to rb performance than talent or what the rb did the previous season.

 out of gurley-zeke-barkley-kamara. .  cmc has the biggest question mark in terms of situation next season with his stud QB currently injured and don't forget Rivera is in the hot seat.

Most people draft in August. If the draft was now you’d have a point but it’s not. More than likely, their coach isn’t getting fired at this point and Newton will play.

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5 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Defenses will figure it out.  No good ever came to a running back who's QB situation went from bad to worse.

 

Agree, see David Johnson. Zeke and Gurley both benefited from better QB play.

Edited by petekrum

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3 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

 

That wasnt a direct comp.  It was an example of how a change in situation can drop a bona fide stud top3 pick rb into an above average cross fingers maybe he can be a stud again rb. 

The point is how situation is more relevant to rb performance than talent or what the rb did the previous season.

 out of gurley-zeke-barkley-kamara. .  cmc has the biggest question mark in terms of situation next season with his stud QB currently injured and don't forget Rivera is in the hot seat.

 

 

The same applies to your position too :lol:

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Most people draft in August. If the draft was now you’d have a point but it’s not. More than likely, their coach isn’t getting fired at this point and Newton will play.

I would argue most draft after the preseason. The week before week 1.

Edited by devaster

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51 minutes ago, petekrum said:

 

Agree, see David Johnson. Zeke and Gurley both benefited from better QB play.

Since when has Zeke known any other QB? And Gurley played with good and bad Goff. Difference being the coach and not the QB. I agree with your general idea on QB play impacting a RB for DJ though. But there was a lot more wrong with the Cardinals than just Rosen. DJ should not have been that bad last season.

 

And we saw AD play with some of the worst QB's in the league for a decade and churn out rushing titles every season. OL and defense are far bigger factors than QB play.

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58 minutes ago, devaster said:

Since when has Zeke known any other QB? And Gurley played with good and bad Goff. Difference being the coach and not the QB. I agree with your general idea on QB play impacting a RB for DJ though. But there was a lot more wrong with the Cardinals than just Rosen. DJ should not have been that bad last season.

 

And we saw AD play with some of the worst QB's in the league for a decade and churn out rushing titles every season. OL and defense are far bigger factors than QB play.

 

My reference to Zeke was that he was more effective this year once they obtained Cooper and the passing game became more dangerous, and was Gurley not markedly more effective with good Goff than bad Goff?

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13 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

but u are sort of missing the bigger point the panthers lost 7 out of their last 8 games and didnt make the playoffs

 

Dumping off to CMC will guarantee they won't win games and the coaches get fired so your position that a gimpy Cam is good for CMC is unsustainable going forward

 

 

That's the point I was trying to make.

 

There is a difference between real life football and fantasy football and it's that coaches don't care for fantasy football, but care for wins.

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5 hours ago, thebadferret said:

 

That's the point I was trying to make.

 

There is a difference between real life football and fantasy football and it's that coaches don't care for fantasy football, but care for wins.

 

Exactly! Some sort of miss the context of how a player got his points when they only cite the boxscore.

When the argument  to take him as a top 3 is look at CMC's 2nd half of the season you have to look at what was significant about his 2nd half production. We know it was because Cam was gimpy and as a result the Panthers lost 7 of 8. His production didnt increase as a result of the team winning which is a critical factor. 

So do people really think that this sort of production is realistic to predict going into next season?

I doubt it is, the more likely outcome is what CMC produced when the panthers were winning games with a healthy Cam. 

He is still a 1st rd pick but I'm not taking him ahead of the more predictable production of zeke-gurley-barkley

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16 hours ago, elroypedro said:

Still no actual reason why CMC will be worse posted in this thread. In fact, nothing even close to a valid argument has been presented. Just random conjecture. 

 

Only 1 other player in the last 7 years hit the 90%+ snap percentage that CMC did this year.  Historical evidence would point to some regression and I think it would be more surprising for him to repeat what he did this year.

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16 hours ago, elroypedro said:

Still no actual reason why CMC will be worse posted in this thread. In fact, nothing even close to a valid argument has been presented. Just random conjecture. 

 

I'm really interested what "actual reasons" are for you; definition of it. This whole thing is just a guessing game.There is no "I know" in Fantasy Football.

 

But if you want to bet you're money that 28ppg can be upheld, feel free to take out your purse.

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