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Apollo_87

Zion Williamson 2019-2020 Outlook (and his impact this season)

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So a couple of  items to go through:

1. This year, we had Ayton getting picked as high as late 3rd - early 4th round in 9-cat 12-teams. How high could Zion 'once in a generation / next LeBron' get picked? There's no way anyone would consider spending a 2nd round pick on a rookie, right?

2. How many teams are going to deliberately start tanking to get him, and what are the fantasy implications? Seems to be a 4-way battle between Knicks, Bulls, Cavs and Suns for the eventual #1 pick where he's likely to go. If I owned any players from those teams (see: Zach Lavine), I'd start trying to unload. If you're holding out for someone to come back from injury from these teams (see: Porzingis, Love), I just don't see the teams featuring those guys when there's a shot at the Zion sweepstakes - there's nothing to gain for either of them by playing those guys.

 

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20 minutes ago, Apollo_87 said:

So a couple of  items to go through:

1. This year, we had Ayton getting picked as high as late 3rd - early 4th round in 9-cat 12-teams. How high could Zion 'once in a generation / next LeBron' get picked? There's no way anyone would consider spending a 2nd round pick on a rookie, right?

2. How many teams are going to deliberately start tanking to get him, and what are the fantasy implications? Seems to be a 4-way battle between Knicks, Bulls, Cavs and Suns for the eventual #1 pick where he's likely to go. If I owned any players from those teams (see: Zach Lavine), I'd start trying to unload. If you're holding out for someone to come back from injury from these teams (see: Porzingis, Love), I just don't see the teams featuring those guys when there's a shot at the Zion sweepstakes - there's nothing to gain for either of them by playing those guys.

 

Why unload players from those 4 teams you mentioned? There's only 1 Zion and only 1 team can get him. Besides, why unload good young players from those teams like Porzingis, Carter Jr., Booker, Ayton, etc.?

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After winning an NCAA championship, he will do a rousing pep talk with the Warriors to boost their confidence for game 4 of the NBA finals seemingly facing adversity because they only won by 30 in game 3 giving them a 3-0 lead.

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28 minutes ago, Apollo_87 said:

So a couple of  items to go through:

1. This year, we had Ayton getting picked as high as late 3rd - early 4th round in 9-cat 12-teams. How high could Zion 'once in a generation / next LeBron' get picked? There's no way anyone would consider spending a 2nd round pick on a rookie, right?

2. How many teams are going to deliberately start tanking to get him, and what are the fantasy implications? Seems to be a 4-way battle between Knicks, Bulls, Cavs and Suns for the eventual #1 pick where he's likely to go. If I owned any players from those teams (see: Zach Lavine), I'd start trying to unload. If you're holding out for someone to come back from injury from these teams (see: Porzingis, Love), I just don't see the teams featuring those guys when there's a shot at the Zion sweepstakes - there's nothing to gain for either of them by playing those guys.

 

I'm easily going to spend a first rounder on Zion and if you think rookies can't get picked in the first round you have a zero percent chance of landing him.

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I think he is a second rounder but wouldn’t be surprised if someone goes to the first.

 

i looked up LeBron in his rookie year and he was a first round value (6th overall I believe). Zion is special but not LeBron. I think will be a much better Draymond in real life and a slightly better RoCo in fantasy. A lot of his value will be in stocks and he will turn it over a lot. 

 

But he is so fun to watch which would make him a lot of fun to own. He might also overshadow other rookies who might get at better value.

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11 minutes ago, DeadfootGhazi said:

I think he is a second rounder but wouldn’t be surprised if someone goes to the first.

 

i looked up LeBron in his rookie year and he was a first round value (6th overall I believe). Zion is special but not LeBron. I think will be a much better Draymond in real life and a slightly better RoCo in fantasy. A lot of his value will be in stocks and he will turn it over a lot. 

 

But he is so fun to watch which would make him a lot of fun to own. He might also overshadow other rookies who might get at better value.

ActualMammothBaldeagle-small.gif

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50 minutes ago, RedRaider27 said:

Why unload players from those 4 teams you mentioned? There's only 1 Zion and only 1 team can get him. Besides, why unload good young players from those teams like Porzingis, Carter Jr., Booker, Ayton, etc.?

Cause all 4 teams will start tanking closer to end of season to improve their odds of getting Zion. And the first 4 teams tend to have the best odds (25%, 19.9%, 13.8%, 13.7% of landing the #1 pick)

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4 minutes ago, Apollo_87 said:

Cause all 4 teams will start tanking closer to end of season to improve their odds of getting Zion. And the first 4 teams tend to have the best odds (25%, 19.9%, 13.8%, 13.7% of landing the #1 pick)

Beginning with the 2019 draft, the NBA will change the lottery odds (the bottom three teams will all have an equal 14% chance of winning the top pick) and increase the number of teams selected in the lottery from three to four.

 

http://www.nba.com/article/2017/09/28/nba-board-governors-approves-changes-draft-lottery-system

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6 minutes ago, Apollo_87 said:

Cause all 4 teams will start tanking closer to end of season to improve their odds of getting Zion. And the first 4 teams tend to have the best odds (25%, 19.9%, 13.8%, 13.7% of landing the #1 pick)

 

wrong. the odds have changed this year. 

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I think everybody knows which team will win the lottery to pick Zion. I give a clue - where will finish LBJ his career?

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10 minutes ago, montanski said:

Beginning with the 2019 draft, the NBA will change the lottery odds (the bottom three teams will all have an equal 14% chance of winning the top pick) and increase the number of teams selected in the lottery from three to four.

 

http://www.nba.com/article/2017/09/28/nba-board-governors-approves-changes-draft-lottery-system

Definitely wasn't aware of that. Dang.

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1 hour ago, DeadfootGhazi said:

I think he is a second rounder but wouldn’t be surprised if someone goes to the first.

 

i looked up LeBron in his rookie year and he was a first round value (6th overall I believe). Zion is special but not LeBron. I think will be a much better Draymond in real life and a slightly better RoCo in fantasy. A lot of his value will be in stocks and he will turn it over a lot. 

 

But he is so fun to watch which would make him a lot of fun to own. He might also overshadow other rookies who might get at better value.

 

According to BBM Lebron was 45th in 9-cat in his rookie season, how do you check and still miss by 39 spots?

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9 minutes ago, qpeeters said:

 

According to BBM Lebron was 45th in 9-cat in his rookie season, how do you check and still miss by 39 spots?

Maybe he plays in a 45 team league, you don't know his life.

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LOL 2nd rounder next year...have fun not winning your league if you take him that early.  I probably, depending on the landing spot, wouldn't take him inside the top 40-45, so I don't expect to get him in drafts next season

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56 minutes ago, mihs said:

Maybe he plays in a 45 team league, you don't know his life.

Could be a 1000 team league and doesnt matter, 6th overall is 6th overall. He was just posting straight nonsense. 

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1 hour ago, qpeeters said:

 

According to BBM Lebron was 45th in 9-cat in his rookie season, how do you check and still miss by 39 spots?

Ah damn I looked at 04-05 by accident. Thanks for catching. Ignore my last comment lol

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I think Zion can be more resembled by a Charles Barkley that can shoot and is muscle instead of fat. He is not like Lebron James or will ever be Lebron James. I think he is very unique. Almost like a Larry Johnson or Shawn Kemp type player. I would personally not spend my 1st round pick on him. I would strongly consider a 2nd but still be hesitant drafting a rookie who still has to prove himself with such a high pick knowing I can get an Embiid or Karl Anthony Towns with my top pick or even a Giannis Antetokounmpo.

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17 hours ago, tobeyreichman18 said:

I think Zion can be more resembled by a Charles Barkley that can shoot and is muscle instead of fat. He is not like Lebron James or will ever be Lebron James. I think he is very unique. Almost like a Larry Johnson or Shawn Kemp type player. I would personally not spend my 1st round pick on him. I would strongly consider a 2nd but still be hesitant drafting a rookie who still has to prove himself with such a high pick knowing I can get an Embiid or Karl Anthony Towns with my top pick or even a Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Yeah, it seems like Zion doesn't have the driving ability in the half court as Lebron does. You get somewhat of a mix between Lebron and Griffin.  

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8 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Yeah, it seems like Zion doesn't have the driving ability in the half court as Lebron does. You get somewhat of a mix between Lebron and Griffin.  

Never thought about the Griffin comparison. Sounds about right though. 

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On 1/17/2019 at 4:48 PM, tobeyreichman18 said:

I think Zion can be more resembled by a Charles Barkley that can shoot and is muscle instead of fat. He is not like Lebron James or will ever be Lebron James. I think he is very unique. Almost like a Larry Johnson or Shawn Kemp type player. I would personally not spend my 1st round pick on him. I would strongly consider a 2nd but still be hesitant drafting a rookie who still has to prove himself with such a high pick knowing I can get an Embiid or Karl Anthony Towns with my top pick or even a Giannis Antetokounmpo.

 

I like your Shawn Kemp comparison.  Actually maybe a bit of a mix between Kemp and Larry J.  I love Zion but I'd be reluctant to use a first-rounder or a second-rounder either.  A third-round pick seems about right.  I have a feeling someone will pull the trigger in the second round at the latest in most leagues, though. 

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