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J.T. Realmuto 2019 Outlook

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Conventional wisdom says to never pay for catching. And usually that’s the best way to go.

 

But this year, we have a weird situation, especially for deep leagurs of 15 or more teams, or leagues that require you to start to catchers. In those formats, it looks like we have a couple catchers who may be worth quite a bit more than the rest. And after a bum year last year, Gary Sanchez worries me a little.

 

Thus we have Realmuto as the sole stud catcher we can be confident in. He’s still youngish. He had solid numbers in Miami with a bad lineup in a pitcher’s park. And he might be traded soon. 

 

All this makes me put him put him up in the fringe top 50 players in the afore-mentioned league settings. 

 

What say ye?

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Catcher always sucks,  but i don't ever recall it being this bad.  Might be the first time in ten years i target the stud C, i think it's a viable play this season

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I think if you're in a 12 or less team league with 1 catcher, you should definitely wait. Do not draft a stud. Only guy that's interesting is Gary Sanchez if he falls further than he should.  Realmuto provides some reliability to the position, but unless its a 15+ league or you need 2 catchers, his overall stats will be underwhelming for a pick that early.

 

Salvador Perez is probably a great target as he is every year. Inexplicably he is still in his 20s. Everyone has had him on their team once, so nobody is rushing to get him. He can usually be had a very good value and rarely gets days off.  Trade some BA for HR between him and Realmuto

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3 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I think if you're in a 12 or less team league with 1 catcher, you should definitely wait. Do not draft a stud. Only guy that's interesting is Gary Sanchez if he falls further than he should.  Realmuto provides some reliability to the position, but unless its a 15+ league or you need 2 catchers, his overall stats will be underwhelming for a pick that early.

 

Salvador Perez is probably a great target as he is every year. Inexplicably he is still in his 20s. Everyone has had him on their team once, so nobody is rushing to get him. He can usually be had a very good value and rarely gets days off.  Trade some BA for HR between him and Realmuto

This is usually my don't even think about it mantra.   I am starting to wonder though if the odds of making up the difference with an OF or SP later is going to be higher than the garbage pile dart throw that exists post JT. 

 

At some point there has to be a line on that.  

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3 minutes ago, WahooManiac said:

This is usually my don't even think about it mantra.   I am starting to wonder though if the odds of making up the difference with an OF or SP later is going to be higher than the garbage pile dart throw that exists post JT. 

 

At some point there has to be a line on that.  

 

The thing is, in a 12 or less 1 catcher league, you'll be able to find that one guy who puts up production close to Realmuto most likely. ESPN Player Rater isn't up right now to show the difference, but a guy ilke Wellington Castillo or even Cerveill in a good year could put up 80+% of what Realmuto does for you, which isn't a ton to begin with.

 

Realmuto projected at 277 and 21 HR. That's certainly great for a catcher in 2019, but like Avisail Garcia might be able to do that as an undrafted OF in a shallowish league.

 

I would draft Realmuto if you find yourself in a snake round with nobody jumping out at you. Sometimes you have a bad feeling between a pitcher and a hitter and you don't feel great about either top guy, so you just take catcher. I don't have a problem with that. 

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

 

I would draft Realmuto if you find yourself in a snake round with nobody jumping out at you. Sometimes you have a bad feeling between a pitcher and a hitter and you don't feel great about either top guy, so you just take catcher. I don't have a problem with that. 

I haven't sat down and finished rankings,  or even anything close to it yet,  but it feels like this could be the move this year.  

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Realmuto looks like he's headed to the Phillies. I'd imagine this is going to shoot him up the boards a bit. Counting stats could see a significant jump. Had 74 runs and 74 RBI last year. That could be 85/85 now

 

 

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You could realistically turn a .270/20 projection into a .280/25 projection and add a ton of R+RBI with this move. Great for JTR. 

 

In a two catcher league, he's on the board for me VERY high. Maybe 2nd-3rd? 

Edited by taobball

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Just now, taobball said:

You could realistically turn a .270/20 projection into a .280/25 projection and add a ton of R+RBI with this move. Great for JTR. 

Agree. I think we see the best season out of JT this year (aside from steals). I think he will play more games and will be much more happy and motivated to go to work everyday. Huge get for the Phillies and this still allows them to add another big time piece. 

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I'm always worried about a catcher getting injured, at least more frequently than a regular position player.  He landed in a great spot, but I'll probably have him undervalued due to injury risk vs other drafters. 

 

Anyone have a link to good statistics on average time on the DL for catchers vs. position players?

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Ok, I may be on board w/ the JT Realmuto love now. If he can hit .280 with 15-18 HR with half of his at-bats in Marlins park, then he can hit .290 with 22 or so HR with half his at bats at Citizens Bank.

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17 minutes ago, Khahan said:

Ok, I may be on board w/ the JT Realmuto love now. If he can hit .280 with 15-18 HR with half of his at-bats in Marlins park, then he can hit .290 with 22 or so HR with half his at bats at Citizens Bank.

 

I think 85 / 25 / 85 / .280 / 5 is a very realistic possibility in this new scenery with upside for more. The floor is probably what he did last year in Miami 

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Totally agree with what everyone is saying, but if you are playing in a league with anyone who is taking it seriously, this is going to inflate his value a ton. I still think the best value is going to be waiting on a catcher and trying to snag one of the middle tier ones (Perez, Yadi, Contreras, Posey, Grandal, or Ramos) who are all ADP 110-145 ish. I think thats where the value is.

 

If your playing 5x5 and the Phillies land Harper, this may change. He could lead all catchers in both runs and RBIs with that lineup.

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4 hours ago, taobball said:

You could realistically turn a .270/20 projection into a .280/25 projection and add a ton of R+RBI with this move. Great for JTR. 

 

In a two catcher league, he's on the board for me VERY high. Maybe 2nd-3rd? 

 

Pump the brakes.  Is he really going to do that much more than he did last year?   Will he play 1b?  That’s 50ab he won’t have if he doesnt.  He’s going in the 4th -5th now.  Going to Phillie doesn’t rocket him up another two rounds unless there is some indication he’s going to run again.   

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12 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

 

Pump the brakes.  Is he really going to do that much more than he did last year?   Will he play 1b?  That’s 50ab he won’t have if he doesnt.  He’s going in the 4th -5th now.  Going to Phillie doesn’t rocket him up another two rounds unless there is some indication he’s going to run again.   

 

Well firstly, in terms of playing 1B... maybe? It's not that crazy if they don't have Harper. It's not crazy that they could have a lineup featuring JT at 1B and Rhys in the OF. I don't think it likely though.

 

But more to the point, he had fewer PAs than Wilson Contreras and Salvador Perez. He had slightly more than Grandal, Molina, and Barnhart. It's not that crazy to assume he has the same volume margin. If Philly and he don't reach an immediate long-term accord, this is a two year settlement as well to a position that has long-term durability concerns. Not crazy he gets 500+ABs pretty easily. 

 

Also to be clear, 2nd to 3rd I said was in a 2 C league.

 

You say "that much more." I don't see it the same way. Marlins Park sucks. The Park Factors for it last year were atrocious. Citizen's Bank is great. The HR Factor for it is consistently among the top 1-5 in the league. You're going from a park that ranges from -17% to -25% roughly to a park that ranges from +15% to +23% roughly. 

 

You're going from a park that suppresses HRs in a line-up that has no protection to a line-up that is highly productive and a park taht is among the best in baseball for hitting HRs. 

 

This is a reaction, but I don't think it is an overreaction. I think it is an accurate adjustment to moving from a terrible park to great park and from a terrible lineup to a great lineup. This is fantastic for his fantasy value. 

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^ and im not saying he’s going to suck or He shouldn’t be the first catcher off the board, but go back and look at all of the catchers who were taken in the second round.  Sanchez last year, posey, mauer, maybe lucroy a few times.  They often disappoint and you’re passing on so many good players in rounds 2-3.  That’s more of why I wouldn’t take him there

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9 hours ago, taobball said:

You could realistically turn a .270/20 projection into a .280/25 projection and add a ton of R+RBI with this move. Great for JTR. 

 

In a two catcher league, he's on the board for me VERY high. Maybe 2nd-3rd? 

 

I think getting away from the Marlins' home stadium will help him out, but I'd still be hesitant to take him that early. He's probably still on the very low end of the top 50 or 60, and I tend to go best available regardless of position in the early rounds. He's ranked 81 right now on fantasypros, and even with the inevitable bump that'll be coming I don't know if I can justify picking him in the second or third round when guys like Benintendi, Soto, Nola, Correa, and Rendon among others will likely end up as late second to early fourth round picks, depending on league size. JT will have a very good to great season, but there's just too much talent ahead of him for me to justify that early of a draft pick.

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20 minutes ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

I think getting away from the Marlins' home stadium will help him out, but I'd still be hesitant to take him that early. He's probably still on the very low end of the top 50 or 60, and I tend to go best available regardless of position in the early rounds. He's ranked 81 right now on fantasypros, and even with the inevitable bump that'll be coming I don't know if I can justify picking him in the second or third round when guys like Benintendi, Soto, Nola, Correa, and Rendon among others will likely end up as late second to early fourth round picks, depending on league size. JT will have a very good to great season, but there's just too much talent ahead of him for me to justify that early of a draft pick.

 

Firstly, let's be clear I said TWO catcher leagues. There's a big difference for catcher value in 1 Catcher and 2 Catcher leagues. I wouldn't move him into that range in a 1 Catcher League.

 

Secondly, I think the top-end of Catcher looks worse than it has in a while. Contreras had a down year. Sanchez's BA is concerning. Posey's power has been going down as his age goes up. 

 

Realmuto offers clear BA, Power and power upside, SB potential, and could lead the position in R+RBI. In a two catcher league, that's worth being drafted over Rendon and Correa I'd say at this point in the process. 

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in a one catcher league, i think investing in any catcher is a bad idea. 

 

I prefer to go no catcher strategy or simply choose from anyone from the free agent pool. There is little seperation between the 5th best guy and the 20th best guy.

 

Realmuto has alot of hype behind him and if you can get him for a discount, great. But remember gary sanchez, and buster posey and so on. Relying on catchers as a key part of your team is a bad strategy. they are very fickle, and the defensive wear and tear on their bodies is already massive.

 

Of course, relying on catchers is inevitable in a 2-catcher league in which case guys like sanchez and realmuto is valuable. but i dont play in any of those :P

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2 hours ago, NoHablaIngles said:

in a one catcher league, i think investing in any catcher is a bad idea. 

 

I prefer to go no catcher strategy or simply choose from anyone from the free agent pool. There is little seperation between the 5th best guy and the 20th best guy.

 

Realmuto has alot of hype behind him and if you can get him for a discount, great. But remember gary sanchez, and buster posey and so on. Relying on catchers as a key part of your team is a bad strategy. they are very fickle, and the defensive wear and tear on their bodies is already massive.

 

Of course, relying on catchers is inevitable in a 2-catcher league in which case guys like sanchez and realmuto is valuable. but i dont play in any of those :P

 

Eh, I dont' think that's necessarily fair. To use two other players' shortcomings to knock a third is usually not the best way of doing things. 

 

Buster Posey's been on a HR decline for quite some time now. AT&T/Oracle suck for HR hitting. His decline as a power hitter was predictable. 

Gary Sanchez has a flaw in his approach. He pops-up a lot, pulls the ball a lot, and had some real concerns IMO coming into 2017/8. 

 

And meanwhile the position as a whole remains down at the high end. Contreras had a bad year. Posey's power probably isn't coming back... Grandal's a great potential value in Milwaukee. I mean people are, at least IMO, giving Gary Sanchez way too much benefit of the doubt in early ADP for someone who was, with all due respect, terrible last year. That's cause the position sucks.

 

Realmuto's prime aged. His line-up projects to be great. He's in a great park. I don't see the similar pitfalls that I think were evident with the other two players. And regardless I just don't think these two should be used as an arguemnt against a differnet player. 

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10 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Eh, I dont' think that's necessarily fair. To use two other players' shortcomings to knock a third is usually not the best way of doing things. 

 

Buster Posey's been on a HR decline for quite some time now. AT&T/Oracle suck for HR hitting. His decline as a power hitter was predictable. 

Gary Sanchez has a flaw in his approach. He pops-up a lot, pulls the ball a lot, and had some real concerns IMO coming into 2017/8. 

 

And meanwhile the position as a whole remains down at the high end. Contreras had a bad year. Posey's power probably isn't coming back... Grandal's a great potential value in Milwaukee. I mean people are, at least IMO, giving Gary Sanchez way too much benefit of the doubt in early ADP for someone who was, with all due respect, terrible last year. That's cause the position sucks.

 

Realmuto's prime aged. His line-up projects to be great. He's in a great park. I don't see the similar pitfalls that I think were evident with the other two players. And regardless I just don't think these two should be used as an arguemnt against a differnet player. 

 

That's a reasonable take. But I just dont see value in paying for a catcher in a 1-catcher league. A catcher has so much on his plate that hitting is a bonus

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5 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

That's a reasonable take. But I just dont see value in paying for a catcher in a 1-catcher league. A catcher has so much on his plate that hitting is a bonus

 

I don’t necessarily disagree as a whole strategy, specifically because I think in a 1-Catcher league it will probably never hurt you too much. 

 

I think Realmuto, both because of what I project and what the rest of the catchers are projected for, is so far and away his own tier for me that I consider him an exception, even if I’m leaning towards that frame of mind. 

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