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J.T. Realmuto 2019 Outlook

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3 hours ago, NoHablaIngles said:

in a one catcher league, i think investing in any catcher is a bad idea. 

 

I prefer to go no catcher strategy or simply choose from anyone from the free agent pool. There is little seperation between the 5th best guy and the 20th best guy.

 

 

In H2H the guy with the catcher adding stats vs the guy not having one can be the difference in winning a LOT of weeks.  It isn't like anyone usually wins a category by 20 RBIs, more like a couple.  Leaving a slot empty is asking for it with the it being another loss.  Try and keep all slots filled at all times in H2H whether travel days when your prime guy is out and you put a bench player in or in your catching slot.  That's why getting one of the handful of good catchers is important. 

 

In roto over a full year they are important too.  Most offensive categories are simply QUANTITY stat gatherers.  In a 5x5 only average is quality over quantity and in other leagues that is subbed for by OBP or OPS.  But Runs, Steals, RBIs and HRs are staples in almost all leagues and catchers contribute to the total.  Empty slots net you nada.

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If he stays around ADP 50 he’s a definite buy in 2 catcher leagues.

 

Amy higher and you are forgoing guys Iike Bellinger and Rendon and I’m not willing they pay that price.

Edited by Magoo

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According to Roster Resource, Realmuto will be hitting 5th, and I've seen some sources projecting cleanup (right behind Harper). I usually fade highly priced catchers, but the setup for him to succeed in Philly is too great to ignore.

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36 minutes ago, Del Rio said:

According to Roster Resource, Realmuto will be hitting 5th, and I've seen some sources projecting cleanup (right behind Harper). I usually fade highly priced catchers, but the setup for him to succeed in Philly is too great to ignore.

 

I doubt he hits cleanup with Hoskins there.  But even at 5th he's likely to have McCutcheon behind him as protection and plenty of people on base ahead of him.  All aboard the hype train.

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I normally blow off catcher..but awfully tempted this year to pay the price for Realmuto.

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I'm a huge Realmuto guy- I've owned him for years in dynasty, so naturally this season I'm ecstatic about his outlook in Philadelphia. I think he has the potential for a very good season and should coast into the number 1 catcher spot; however, I'm avoiding him in redrafts (and only in redrafts). Why? Well, to me, injury risk. 

 

Now, I realize this seems odd considering he's gone four straight years eclipsing 440 ABs and is only 27 years old. I don't say injury risk because of prior injuries and I think he's going to get hurt, but simply because of replacement costs and values. When your catcher goes down, you are quite literally scraping the bottom of the barrel for a replacement, and you go from getting the best production in the league at the position to the worst. If that injury lingers or is an extended absence, you're really hurting. 

 

Per NFBC ADP, Realmuto is going off the board at pick 51. In that same range you have guys like Eugenio Suarez, Ozzie Albies, Gleyber Torres, and Jean Segura. Just above Realmuto you have Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Cody Bellinger, and Khris Davis. Each of those players will likely give you the same or better production that Realmuto does, but if one of those guys gets hurt, it hurts you much less than if your catcher does. Replacing a SS or 1B or OF is much easier than replacing a C. 

 

I realize that I'm basing my avoidance of most likely the #1 catcher on a hypothetical situation, but for me personally I want to exit my draft/auction with what I feel puts me in the best position to win. If I take Eugenio Suarez instead of JT Realmuto, I know I'm getting similar production throughout the season, and if he goes down it doesn't cripple me like losing Realmuto would. I'll let another team in the draft take that chance. 

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2 hours ago, adifazio27 said:

I'm a huge Realmuto guy- I've owned him for years in dynasty, so naturally this season I'm ecstatic about his outlook in Philadelphia. I think he has the potential for a very good season and should coast into the number 1 catcher spot; however, I'm avoiding him in redrafts (and only in redrafts). Why? Well, to me, injury risk. 

 

Now, I realize this seems odd considering he's gone four straight years eclipsing 440 ABs and is only 27 years old. I don't say injury risk because of prior injuries and I think he's going to get hurt, but simply because of replacement costs and values. When your catcher goes down, you are quite literally scraping the bottom of the barrel for a replacement, and you go from getting the best production in the league at the position to the worst. If that injury lingers or is an extended absence, you're really hurting. 

 

Per NFBC ADP, Realmuto is going off the board at pick 51. In that same range you have guys like Eugenio Suarez, Ozzie Albies, Gleyber Torres, and Jean Segura. Just above Realmuto you have Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Cody Bellinger, and Khris Davis. Each of those players will likely give you the same or better production that Realmuto does, but if one of those guys gets hurt, it hurts you much less than if your catcher does. Replacing a SS or 1B or OF is much easier than replacing a C. 

 

I realize that I'm basing my avoidance of most likely the #1 catcher on a hypothetical situation, but for me personally I want to exit my draft/auction with what I feel puts me in the best position to win. If I take Eugenio Suarez instead of JT Realmuto, I know I'm getting similar production throughout the season, and if he goes down it doesn't cripple me like losing Realmuto would. I'll let another team in the draft take that chance. 

 

I get what you're saying. To me, every catcher not named Realmuto has a high degree more risk. There's really no one in the ballpark of Realmuto's projection for me. And for that reason, I'm taking probably higher than ADP, and not lower. There's no way I take Albies or Torres over Realmuto. Zero chance there, though that has a bit more to do with those individual players. Players like Khris Davis and Carlos Correa and Jean Segura are very close. Bogaerts and Bellinger are the only two I probably take over Realmuto. Maybe Suarez. 


You use the term "similar production" too much. Replacement level production is what we're batting here, not a vacuum. The difference between Suarez / Realmuto and the difference in stats between Moustakas and a not-top-5 C are a bit different. 

 

Give me Realmuto. 

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Any chance Kapler let's JTR run more this year, or are the days of hoping for 8+ SBs over? Forecaster says he still has the legs to hit dd SBs if he'd get the green light more often. I'm not holding my breath, however. 

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1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

Any chance Kapler let's JTR run more this year, or are the days of hoping for 8+ SBs over? Forecaster says he still has the legs to hit dd SBs if he'd get the green light more often. I'm not holding my breath, however. 

Kapler is analytics hipster. Walks and homers.

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Any ideas on what pitchers he won't catch for?  I wonder because I'm not sure how much time he will see at 1B this year on non-catching days. 

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4 minutes ago, Greenline said:

Any ideas on what pitchers he won't catch for?  I wonder because I'm not sure how much time he will see at 1B this year on non-catching days. 

 

He wont play first. 

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With Sal Perez basically out for the season, there's maybe 5 viable catchers who can hold down a starting spot. Grandal, Realmuto, Posey, Molina, and Sanchez. Everyone else is garbage, and Sanchez was awful last season. If you're in a 12-team league you're riding the carousel of Kurt Suzuki, Wilson Ramos, Jon Lucroy, etc.

Of these players, Realmuto was the ONLY catcher with over 300 points in fantasy last season in ESPN standard points scoring.

If you dont end up with Realmuto, you'll have to have the pain of using acquisitions on catchers who play 3 days a week. The names out there are not good this year, and it makes Realmuto an easy 5th round pick or so in my eyes just to save the headache.

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12 minutes ago, Baloo said:

With Sal Perez basically out for the season, there's maybe 5 viable catchers who can hold down a starting spot. Grandal, Realmuto, Posey, Molina, and Sanchez. Everyone else is garbage, and Sanchez was awful last season. If you're in a 12-team league you're riding the carousel of Kurt Suzuki, Wilson Ramos, Jon Lucroy, etc.

Of these players, Realmuto was the ONLY catcher with over 300 points in fantasy last season in ESPN standard points scoring.

If you dont end up with Realmuto, you'll have to have the pain of using acquisitions on catchers who play 3 days a week. The names out there are not good this year, and it makes Realmuto an easy 5th round pick or so in my eyes just to save the headache.

 

Format dependent. There are more than 5 catchers who are startable and useful in 5x5 roto leagues. I'm playing my first points league in decades this year, so I'm not sure about points. 

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2 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Format dependent. There are more than 5 catchers who are startable and useful in 5x5 roto leagues. I'm playing my first points league in decades this year, so I'm not sure about points. 

 

Also depends on if you have 2 or 1 starting catchers. In a 2 catcher Roto league, I'd easily take Realmuto in the 4th round. Maybe end of the 3rd

 

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36 minutes ago, taobball said:

He wont play first. 

I'd put the O/U on his 1B starts at like 3 and probably lean toward the under, but keep in mind the Phillies are reportedly going with just a 4-man bench of Altherr, Williams, Kingery, and Knapp, which leaves Kingery as the only legitimate backup behind all four infield positions.  The infielders will all need days off from time to time, and there's only one Scott Kingery.  Kapler loves to tinker with his lineups, and even if he's being directed by the front office to tinker less with starting lineups, that goes out the window with in-game management.  Put all of that together, and I can see a path toward a fair number of 1B appearances for JT to get his bat in the lineup when needed, even if he's rarely if ever starting there.

I mean, this is the guy who gave Carlos freaking Santana 19 games and 62 PA appearing at *third base* last year.

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12 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

I'd put the O/U on his 1B starts at like 3 and probably lean toward the under, but keep in mind the Phillies are reportedly going with just a 4-man bench of Altherr, Williams, Kingery, and Knapp, which leaves Kingery as the only legitimate backup behind all four infield positions.  The infielders will all need days off from time to time, and there's only one Scott Kingery.  Kapler loves to tinker with his lineups, and even if he's being directed by the front office to tinker less with starting lineups, that goes out the window with in-game management.  Put all of that together, and I can see a path toward a fair number of 1B appearances for JT to get his bat in the lineup when needed, even if he's rarely if ever starting there.

I mean, this is the guy who gave Carlos freaking Santana 19 games and 62 PA appearing at *third base* last year.

 

Tbf, if there's one spot that can play 162, it is a young Rhys at first. 

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Just now, taobball said:

Tbf, if there's one spot that can play 162, it is a young Rhys at first. 

 

There's "is physically capable of playing the position for 162" and "is physically capable of restraining Kapler from rotating other guys in after he hits a random 2-for-15 stretch at the plate."  Kapler's a pretty strong dude, and his will to be unorthodox is even stronger.

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I grabbed him at 55 in a 12-team, 5x5 Roto league. A little early, maybe, but I had no interest in missing out on the middle tier of catchers and having to scuffle to find solid at bats. Just got ahead of the problem.

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damn he gunned Albies down like it was nothing. 

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1. Andrew McCutchen (R) LF
2. J.T. Realmuto (R) C
3. Bryce Harper (L) RF
4. Rhys Hoskins (R) 1B
5. Maikel Franco (R) 3B
6. Phil Gosselin (R) SS
7. Cesar Hernandez (S) 2B
8. Aaron Altherr (R) CF
9. Jake Arrieta (R) P
 
 
New lineup today. Wonder if this is just because they are facing a lefty or if this is here to stay?
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24 minutes ago, lazershow said:

Nice while it lasts, but Segura will be back in that spot when he's healthy.

 

Forgot about Segura being out. This makes more sense now

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, lazershow said:

Nice while it lasts, but Segura will be back in that spot when he's healthy.

 

11 minutes ago, to_be_quite_frank said:

 

Forgot about Segura being out. This makes more sense now

 

Has to do with some injuries... Kingery was at that 2 hole for Segura... he goes down and Caesar is probably in the dog house after yesterday.... wasn't paying attention to a drop ball on the basepaths and was terrible at the plate. He probably wouldn't even be playing today if they weren't down Segura and Kingery.

Edited by XxxOilOverloadxxX

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Did anyone else think this guy would be putting up much better than he is as of now currently?

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