BigPapi44

Corbin Burnes 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

Thoughts on him making the Brewers rotation and expectations of him this year and long-term.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quick back of the napkin outlook:

- Brandon Woodruff and Zach Davies stand between Burnes and a starting spot.  Neither wow me in any real way.

- RosterResource has Burnes in the pen.

- Steamer has him for 13 games started with 74 IP.

 

I think he starts in the pen and if an injury should befall a starter he'll move into the rotation.  I like his upside though.  Does he qualify at SP in fantasy leagues?  If so, I'd consider him as a nice RP to slot into my SP spot for ratios and bonus Ks.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure: Per RotoWire News: General  Manager David Stearns said Burnes will enter the 2019 season as a starter, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (10/23/2018)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1) He only pitched out of the pen for Brewers last year (RP eligibility only)

2) Both Stearns and CC never wavered once and repeatedly stated he is a starter and will be handled as such this season/moving forward

3) Doesn't appear to be a carved out spot for him in rotation at the moment

4) They like him a ton and would not part with him for Machado or any other players

5) He's really quite good and will pitch important innings for MKE

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

-Probably my favorite pitching prospect in baseball because of my format (weekly h2h where you can use him as RP). Hiding down at 337 adp on NFBC because his role is unknown. In my format, he has the chance to be the most valuable pitcher in the league which explains some of my bullishness, but I really do like him as a starter.

 

-Talent-wise, he was drafted in the 4th rd, 111 overall from St. Mary's College so we aren't talking about a no sh*t can't miss guy, which IMO is why so many pubs missed on him and put him at the back end of their top 100s. Except for Law and Longenhagen, who were bullish and had him in the 25-35 range. This is his fangraph's scouting grades.

 

Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Future Value
55 / 55 50 / 55 50 / 55 45 / 50 50 / 60 55

 

-Going into this past year, my two favorite (not necessarily best) pitching prospects were Joey Lucchesi and Corbin Burnes because they both had ELITE minor league out generation skills. This made me very certain that I was going to get a close to MLB ready #3 type pitcher. Someone I could project into an automatic start verse a weak or so-so NL offense.

 

-Steamer and depth charts both project a 4.53 ERA and 4.50 FIP. They project 30 BBs to 67 Ks. Just a really weak projection IMO.

 

Did you know that in AAA Corbin Burnes posted a 5.15 ERA with a .4.22 FIP? Hmmm, plus one for the projection systems.

 

Did you know that in AAA Corbin Burnes posted a 7.24 ERA with a 1.82 WHIP at Home? With 27 Ks and 18 BBs in 32.1 IP.

 

Did you know that in AAA Corbin Burnes posted a 3.69 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP away? With 54 Ks and 13 BBs in 46.1 IP.Seriously, Corbin Burnes will never throw another pitch above 6K feet again, -10 for his steamer projection.

Edited by Light Tower Power
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's a quiet sleeper for me. Think some people will have forgotten about him after pitching in the pen for awhile and guys like Whitley, Luzardo, and Keller likely coming up this year. Hoping to score him for cheap ish prices in trade and drafts before the season starts

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He wasn't very good in AAA (given the PCL), so if Brewers really want him to be a starter, maybe they will ask him to prove he's mastered AAA first. There's 3 guys in front of him (Davies, Woodruff, Peralta) going for the last 2 spots, I don't see him being the favorite for it, although a strong Spring Training can change that. If he lights up Spring Training, he will have my attention.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Sidearmer said:

He wasn't very good in AAA (given the PCL), so if Brewers really want him to be a starter, maybe they will ask him to prove he's mastered AAA first. There's 3 guys in front of him (Davies, Woodruff, Peralta) going for the last 2 spots, I don't see him being the favorite for it, although a strong Spring Training can change that. If he lights up Spring Training, he will have my attention.

 

Lol, he pitched at 6,000 feet elevation. Throw that sh*t out....

 

To your point, they aren't playing at Colorado Springs this year, so AAA could be beneficial, but his MLB numbers were good as a reliever.

 

Davies blows btw... Burnes is the most talented of the group as a 3 pitch pitcher.

Edited by Light Tower Power
  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Light Tower Power said:

 

Lol, he pitched at 6,000 feet elevation. Throw that sh*t out....

 

To your point, they aren't playing at Colorado Springs this year, so AAA could be beneficial, but his MLB numbers were good as a reliever.

 

Davies blows btw... Burnes is the most talented of the group as a 3 pitch pitcher.

 

Yes at elevation but still AAA hitters. He wasn't just average he was pretty awful in his time there. If he improved since getting the call up then he will do better if he starts in AAA this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Yes at elevation but still AAA hitters. He wasn't just average he was pretty awful in his time there. If he improved since getting the call up then he will do better if he starts in AAA this year.

 

Huh, it was Colorado springs bud.

 

Away: AAA Corbin Burnes posted a 3.69 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP.

 

Of course he would do better in AAA, they don't play in Colorado Springs anymore.

 

If he sucked so bad in AAA, why the hell would they promote him to MLB? To get him the hell out of Colorado Springs, IMO.

Edited by Light Tower Power

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Light Tower Power said:

 

Huh, it was Colorado springs bud.

 

Away: AAA Corbin Burnes posted a 3.69 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP.

 

Of course he would do better in AAA, they don't play in Colorado Springs anymore.

 

3.69 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in neutral AAA environment is still very pedestrian.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

3.69 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in neutral AAA environment is still very pedestrian.

 

Certainly a fair take. He was in the PCL (notoriously offensive environment). I don't feel like breaking down each start to see how much he was impacted. Here's the quick and dirty ball park factors.

 

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-stats-triple-a-ballpark-factors/c-208823408

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Light Tower Power said:

 

Certainly a fair take. He was in the PCL (notoriously offensive environment). I don't feel like breaking down each start to see how much he was impacted. Here's the quick and dirty ball park factors.

 

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-stats-triple-a-ballpark-factors/c-208823408

 

Everyone is aware of this, but its still AAA hitters. He has to at least be average there in my opinion to get a shot. However, I'm not making the decisions so we will see how it plays out.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What concerns me with him is how little success he had with his secondary pitches. Yes, he's immensely talented, but at the MLB level it was really only his fastball that got him results. (Pitch Values Per 100)

 5c60d040e9a73_ScreenShot2019-02-10at8_30_01PM.png.1ded3356e2ea32c8a89cf82733db7fed.png

Not a great look for a starter. Obviously he can improve, but he NEEDS to improve to be a viable starter I think.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, the GM of the team indicated that they were looking at him as a starter this year.  I suspect his role will get sorted out with Spring Training performances and/or injuries.  Right now, I see him as the front-runner for the last rotation spot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do we know if he’s in the rotation or if not, what his bullpen role will be?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Jub Jub said:

Do we know if he’s in the rotation or if not, what his bullpen role will be?

He made the rotation!

Todd RosiakVerified account @Todd_Rosiak

(With Chacin), Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Zach Davies will round out the Brewers’ rotation to start the season, Craig Counsell says. Chase Anderson will open in the bullpen.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There was never talk of anything but him working as a SP...not that teams can't reverse course

Just be aware that all these young arms are gonna be limited on innings and the Crew will do all sorts of quirky things with openers and skipping guys in April...

I like Burnes a bunch, he will be good...also Nelson looks like he's returning by the end of April too

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Who's the better of these 3, or how would you rank them for fantasy this year?

 

Woodruff

Burnes

Peralta

 

????

Edited by dicka24

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, dicka24 said:

Who's the better of these 3, or how would you rank them for fantasy this year?

 

Woodruff

Burnes

Peralta

 

????

Exactly what I'm trying to figure out. I have Woodruff right now and dropped Peralta. I would say it's a toss up between those two with Woodruff being the safer option.

Burnes is last in my book, but my book has never been read.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, hangin n wangin said:

Exactly what I'm trying to figure out. I have Woodruff right now and dropped Peralta. I would say it's a toss up between those two with Woodruff being the safer option.

Burnes is last in my book, but my book has never been read.

I looked at their minor league numbers and I'd rank them the same I think.  Woodruff, Peralta, then Burnes.  Peralta's minor league K rates are very good, but I'd seen it said that he's a limited pitcher.  I'm a bit ignorant of these Brewers kids though. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, dicka24 said:

I looked at their minor league numbers and I'd rank them the same I think.  Woodruff, Peralta, then Burnes.  Peralta's minor league K rates are very good, but I'd seen it said that he's a limited pitcher.  I'm a bit ignorant of these Brewers kids though. 

Peralta just scares the s--- out of me. 22 years old, only really throws fast balls, allows a ton of fly balls, walks a ton of people, and plays in a fly ball hitters paradise. That's why I dropped him for Woodruff. I think he will be really, really good eventually, but I think he goes through growing pains.

Edited by hangin n wangin
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd rank Woodruff above the other two, by a decent margin.

 

Peralta is the 'sexier' of the others, but may be more volatile.   But it's hard to ignore the K rate.

At this point (assuming waivers or very late in drafts), I'd lean toward Peralta over Burnes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, dicka24 said:

Who's the better of these 3, or how would you rank them for fantasy this year?

 

Woodruff

Burnes

Peralta

 

????

I like the order you have, with Burnes having the most upside. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow, very surprised at the comments above.  Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff in order for me both short & long term. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.