Homerj24

Shane Bieber 2019 Outlook

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Good K9 and BB9 rates last season, but got hit around a bit. What can we expect this season?

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4 minutes ago, Homerj24 said:

Good K9 and BB9 rates last season, but got hit around a bit. What can we expect this season?

Hard to say, but I would guess he learned a lot last year, and will work hard to refine his pitch  selections and locations.

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Like Carrasco and Kluber he has a pretty avg/bad fastball. He’s working with the right group of guys to adjust/improve. I’m all in at his current price. 

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Posted (edited)

CBS thinks he could a #2 starter, which feels a tad aggressive. He did pitch well last year, mostly. But when he got hit, he got blowed up. I'd be confident taking him a little earlier than his current price to see if he can make some adjustments. He still pitches is a bad division, so matchups should be juicy [...]

Edited by tonycpsu
League/format-shaming removed.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

CBS thinks he could a #2 starter, which feels a tad aggressive. He did pitch well last year, mostly. But when he got hit, he got blowed up. I'd be confident taking him a little earlier than his current price to see if he can make some adjustments. He still pitches is a bad division, so matchups should be juicy, especially if you are playing in a caveman league that still uses wins. 

 

I   C   BS. 

Did he "mostly" pitch well. Based on what factor? K/BB? Great, he's the next Josh Tomlin. Let's crown him. 

Shane Bieber going where he is being drafted, not even discussing this upside, is absolutely ridiculous. Shane Bieber had a 4.55 ERA last year. He was not a good pitcher. But everyone wants to be all optimistic because on a few distinct metrics he ranked with a low FIP/xFIP and a good K/BB. But K/BB isn't everything or the only thing and people are simply missing a guy who is a highly flawed pitcher.

 

V. LHP:

.311 / .362 / .547 

 

I mean holy-s----balls that's awful. That's not "he struggles v. LHPs" that's "he turns every Left-Handed batter into a Hall-of-Fame caliber player." I mean a .900 freaking OPS? THATS INSANE! 

And there's repertoire issues abound here that have this making logical sense. His Slider, which is a pitch with hefty splits, is his best pitch. He has no real change-up to speak of, and his fastball was hit hard all last year. He has an inconsistent Curveball that may be his most effective POTENTIAL weapon against Lefties. 

 

Shane Bieber is a massively flawed  pitcher that people want to pretend is the greatest regression candidate this year simply because he throws strikes, regardless of what happens once those strikes get into the barrels of his opponents bats. Don't draft Shane Bieber, and don't listen to CBS. 

 

 

 

 

Edited by taobball
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Bieber is more of a guy to take a flier on late and see if he can improve upon last season.  I agree that CBS is being overly optimistic there, but while I wouldn't draft him in a spot where I'd have to rely on him, I wouldn't completely ignore him either.  For all of the bad there is in his statistics from last season, he did get a bit unlucky with some things (his BABIP is ridiculously high).

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Just now, KilloWertz said:

Bieber is more of a guy to take a flier on late and see if he can improve upon last season.  I agree that CBS is being overly optimistic there, but while I wouldn't draft him in a spot where I'd have to rely on him, I wouldn't completely ignore him either.  For all of the bad there is in his statistics from last season, he did get a bit unlucky with some things (his BABIP is ridiculously high).

 

I wouldn't completely ignore him in a vacuum. I will absolutely completely ignore him at ADP 170 and probably in the top 250. 

 

Why is his BABIP ridiculous? I agree it is high. I do not agree it is ridiculous. It's unsustainable based on metrics that we have from players who play in the MLB. What if Bieber just isn't that good? He gave up a frickin 43.9% Hard% and 10.5% Soft%. People took him to the opposite field, pull side, all they wanted, all day. Again, this dude made the AVERAGE MLB Lefty look like a HALL OF FAME caliber player last year. 

 

To me, based on last year, there is NOTHING unsustainable about that BABIP, or at least a BABIP right in that range. I don't believe he got unlucky, I believe he lacks the appropriate skill-set in his repertoire to survive in the zone he wants to pound so much, and hitters just get on his pitches and smack the crap out of them. 

 

He could no doubt improve by adding a change-up or something, but .350 or not, I expect him to have an atrocious BABIP if he comes into next year with all the same arrows in his quiver he had in 2018. 

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Posted (edited)

Put it this way:

 

If I saw a HITTER who had the following batted ball profile:

 

22.0% LD%, 5.6% Pop-Up%, 36.0% / 33.6% / 30.4% Pull% / Cent% / Oppo%, 43.9% Hard%, and a 10.5% Soft%

 

I would project that player for probably a .350 BABIP. 

Edited by taobball
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2 hours ago, taobball said:

 

I   C   BS. 

Did he "mostly" pitch well. Based on what factor? K/BB? Great, he's the next Josh Tomlin. Let's crown him. 

Shane Bieber going where he is being drafted, not even discussing this upside, is absolutely ridiculous. Shane Bieber had a 4.55 ERA last year. He was not a good pitcher. But everyone wants to be all optimistic because on a few distinct metrics he ranked with a low FIP/xFIP and a good K/BB. But K/BB isn't everything or the only thing and people are simply missing a guy who is a highly flawed pitcher.

 

V. LHP:

.311 / .362 / .547 

 

I mean holy-s----balls that's awful. That's not "he struggles v. LHPs" that's "he turns every Left-Handed batter into a Hall-of-Fame caliber player." I mean a .900 freaking OPS? THATS INSANE! 

And there's repertoire issues abound here that have this making logical sense. His Slider, which is a pitch with hefty splits, is his best pitch. He has no real change-up to speak of, and his fastball was hit hard all last year. He has an inconsistent Curveball that may be his most effective POTENTIAL weapon against Lefties. 

 

Shane Bieber is a massively flawed  pitcher that people want to pretend is the greatest regression candidate this year simply because he throws strikes, regardless of what happens once those strikes get into the barrels of his opponents bats. Don't draft Shane Bieber, and don't listen to CBS. 

 

 

 

 

Rotoworld, I'd like to delete my post please, haha.

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2 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Rotoworld, I'd like to delete my post please, haha.

 

I mean I could be wrong. And it was just the CBS opinion. But also so many others. I've seen so many people talking about him and his K/BB, but between the splits, and a repertoire that makes SENSE to have bad splits, and the Batted Balls, I just don't see WHY.

 

He can make guys mis in the zone which is valuable. New traits / new skills can get him to a place beyond where he is now. But when we look BACK, I don't think it's fair at all to say he was a better than 4.55 ERA pitcher last year. I don't believe he was, personally. So he needs to improve to justify his ADP, and I usually don't pay for improvements, and partiuclarly ones I don't see much evidence of yet. 

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4 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I mean I could be wrong. And it was just the CBS opinion. But also so many others. I've seen so many people talking about him and his K/BB, but between the splits, and a repertoire that makes SENSE to have bad splits, and the Batted Balls, I just don't see WHY.

 

He can make guys mis in the zone which is valuable. New traits / new skills can get him to a place beyond where he is now. But when we look BACK, I don't think it's fair at all to say he was a better than 4.55 ERA pitcher last year. I don't believe he was, personally. So he needs to improve to justify his ADP, and I usually don't pay for improvements, and partiuclarly ones I don't see much evidence of yet. 

Yeah I should have excluded the #2 quote because that sounded absurd when I read It, but I wondered if I had missed something with the Beebs. Apparently I had not. 

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And also in general, I love pitchers in this division because I suspect it will still be teh worst line-ups as a whole this year. But even streaming him... I don't care about the names. If I see L's or S's throughout the line-up, I'm gonna be really scared about streaming Shane Bieber no matter what caliber of L or S they are.   

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I dont see an issue with his repertoire. His curve just fine. He just doesnt have the aresenal or command to pitch like Cliff Lee. 

 

I see his issues just more in experience. Dont buy for a second he was unlucky though. I'm not in that group.

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10 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

I dont see an issue with his repertoire. His curve just fine. He just doesnt have the aresenal or command to pitch like Cliff Lee. 

 

I see his issues just more in experience. Dont buy for a second he was unlucky though. I'm not in that group.

 

A change-up is still far more ideal than a curveball when it comes to balancing splits. Yes great pitchers including Clayton Kershaw do it, but there's also a reason why damn near everyone still teaches a change-up. I don't think his Curve is a terrible third pitch, just a little inconsistent. His fastball gave up a .300+ BA, .500+ SLG, and generates only 6.5% Whiffs. 

 

I don't know. I don't really like the long term projection here too much either as a rotation piece. The Slider is the only thing I'm really confident in. No Fastball No Change-Up scares me and I'm worried that's where we sit right now. 

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4 hours ago, taobball said:

 

I mean I could be wrong. And it was just the CBS opinion. But also so many others. I've seen so many people talking about him and his K/BB, but between the splits, and a repertoire that makes SENSE to have bad splits, and the Batted Balls, I just don't see WHY.

 

He can make guys mis in the zone which is valuable. New traits / new skills can get him to a place beyond where he is now. But when we look BACK, I don't think it's fair at all to say he was a better than 4.55 ERA pitcher last year. I don't believe he was, personally. So he needs to improve to justify his ADP, and I usually don't pay for improvements, and partiuclarly ones I don't see much evidence of yet. 

 

I agree with this, the upside he has in in his development year to year, not what he did last year. He's one of those guys who lived in the zone through the minors but his stuff isn't good enough to do that in the bigs. If he learns to pitch out of the zone more effectively his walks might go up but he should become a better overall pitcher. I won't be paying for the hope that happens this year. At best, I will be using him as a streamer against right handed heavy teams if/when he is dropped by whoever drafts him.

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A 23 year old haveing trouble with curve ball consistency happens. Its a difficult pitch to throw where you want it and/or not hang.

 

Personally like his chances because it does show a lot of promise of being a legit plus pitch. Something maturity/experience helps with. IMO. I think eventually he is going to realize that he can't just pound his fastball for strikes at will because the pitch is not good enough. My feeling is when he gets more confident in his curve. He will feature it more vs southpaws. Right now he used his breakers 44% vs RHP, but only 34% vs LHP. Obviously do the significant more confidence in his slider. 

 

Maybe i'm way off and curve isn't enough..but i'm not super down on him long term yet. Fastball isn't good, but i think plays down do the way he uses it right now.

 

Do agree with the bottom line of the ADP probably not being ideal right now.

 

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I view Bieber as SP5 material. If he can grab some consistent QS then that would be great, but I don't see a big upside to him.

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12 minutes ago, BCMarch10 said:

I view Bieber as SP5 material. If he can grab some consistent QS then that would be great, but I don't see a big upside to him.

Whatchu Talkin Bout Willis ?

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As a Tribe fan, here is my perspective.  

Shane will  have a solid season.  Right now he's a #5.  He has good control with his fastball and a good slider that misses bats.  His issue is his pitch mix when he goes 2nd and 3rd time through the order.  He doesn't have an above average 3rd pitch yet either.   Once he develops a 3rd pitch and then fixes his mix, he will be solid.  I wouldn't overpay this year in redrafts.  I would stash him in keeper or dynasty leagues. 

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I think there is some decent upside here. 

I like that he doesn’t walk many batters but the downside is his seems very hittable at times. Not sure if it’s true or not but I read somewhere last year that he seemed afraid to walk batters and didn’t throw as many pitches outside the zone. 

Small sample size but he’s pitched pretty well this spring so far. It would be great if he was picking Kluber’s brain a bit. 

 

2 scoreless innings on Wednesday and then a good outing today. 

Shane Bieber struck out four batters over three innings of one-run ball Monday in a Cactus League start against the Padres.

He of course issued zero walks. It's another fine spring outing from Bieber, who worked two scoreless frames in his Cactus League debut last Wednesday. The arrow is pointing up in a big way for the 23-year-old right-hander, who posted a 1.47 ERA and 77/7 K/BB ratio over 79 2/3 innings last season in the minors while also showing promise in stretches for the Indians. He'll open as the No. 5 starter in Cleveland and is a pretty great value in early fantasy drafts with a Yahoo ADP of 166.2.

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Another solid spring outing for Bieber. 

I hope he throws some balls outside the zone this season. With his pinpoint control he should beable to mix it up a bit and have some more success.  

 

Shane Bieber struck out four batters over four shutout innings in a Cactus League start against the Rockies on Saturday.

Bieber was in complete control, allowing just one hit over four frames. He also did not walk a batter. He’s allowed only one run on three hits with nine strikeouts and zero walks over nine innings of work this spring. The 23-year-old righty has become a trendy industry sleeper pick because of his extensive track record of pinpoint control (1.81 BB/9 in 114 2/3 major-league innings last year). However, the central question in his profile is whether he was around the plate too much in his brief exposure to big-league hitters, which led to consistently hard contact and a bloated 4.55 ERA. If Bieber can pitch out of the zone effectively and get hitters to consistently chase moving forward, he’s going to evolve into an elite fantasy start

 

 

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What is it about this dude that I do not like? I mean numbers aside, he just looks average to me and gets to much of the plate more often than I like

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32 minutes ago, RolandoRoomes said:

What is it about this dude that I do not like? I mean numbers aside, he just looks average to me and gets to much of the plate more often than I like

He does get to much of the plate from time to time, he's a young pitcher, still has a lot of growth  to achieve. 

I think he doesn't trust his stuff like he should. Might be the best 5th starter in the AL, I think he will get better

each year, I watched him pitch in a spring training last week, and he still was getting to much of the plate, but

in a game I didn't watch yesterday, he pitched 4 innings, gave up one hit, struck out 4, yes it was spring training 

game, but he made some adjustments , can't complain about that.

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This guy looks almost exactly like 2013 Corey Kluber. Probably too much to ask him to produce like 2014 Kluber however. Being in the weakest division in baseball doesn't hurt. His splits are a concern but he's working lefties dead red center and with his control, that's partly a pitch calling and confidence issue. His third time through the order penalty is both small sample size and likely exacerbated by being too predictable; very common for a 23 year old in his first go through in the majors.

He ran out a 3.30 xFIP and a 3.45 SIERA which is very hard to fake. He threw 114 innings last season and that is large enough sample to show his K rate, BB rate, and HR rate are stable. BABIP has a ways to go before it's stable but he's had high numbers in the minors so unless he alters his approach itt may always be on the high side and add some volatility right now.

He's running around $3-4 in auctions at the moment so I'm buying.

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Today he went 5IP 0H 0 R 2BB 8SO 

However it was against basically the Rockies AAA lineup. Still, he pitched as well as you could ask him to.  This is a guy that I just can’t get a good feel for this season. 

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