Homerj24

Shane Bieber 2019 Outlook

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I own Bieber so I’m a bit biased but I have a good feeling about Biebs this season. 

He had some bad luck in 2018 with a .356 BABIP so there should be some regression in that department. He did look hittable at times last year but he struck out over a batter per inning and doesn’t give up many walk

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Has it been confirmed when his first start is? Assuming he's 5th which puts him into next week?

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Yeah when is this guy starting?

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On 3/30/2019 at 2:24 PM, whips02 said:

Yeah when is this guy starting?

 

Tonight and dealing at that. 

I’m officially a belieber boys. 

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Bieber didn't factor into the decision in Friday's 3-2 win over the Blue Jays, allowing two runs on two hits and two walks over six innings while striking out nine.

Spin: It was an impressive first start of 2019 for the right-hander, even if it did come against a Toronto offense that's made most of the pitchers it's faced so far look good. Bieber was a popular sleeper pick this preseason, and his 11:2 K:BB through eight innings won't dampen the hype. He'll next take the mound Thursday in another potentially juicy matchup, on the road against the Tigers.

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Biebs is cruising so far this year, pretty excited about him in my keeper league. I think he is going to ascend to very good #2 status in a hurry.

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Agreed. He even had some Ks on his FB today (against DET so maybe not saying a whole lot) which sat at about 93. What was encouraging to me was to see him go to the changeup a decent amount as well.  When he has that pitch working he really shines.

 

A lot of the criticism coming into the year was that he is going to hurt your ratios since he's in the zone too much. No worries about that after watching his start today; something like 65% strikes.

 

 

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On 4/11/2019 at 4:04 PM, Lebanasty said:

Agreed. He even had some Ks on his FB today (against DET so maybe not saying a whole lot) which sat at about 93. What was encouraging to me was to see him go to the changeup a decent amount as well.  When he has that pitch working he really shines.

 

A lot of the criticism coming into the year was that he is going to hurt your ratios since he's in the zone too much. No worries about that after watching his start today; something like 65% strikes.

 

 

 

I love Bieber and think he'll go down as one of the best value picks this year.  He was just unlucky with BABIP last year, his walk rate and K rate were elite, and now that BABIP luck is starting to normalize.  It never made any sense to me how Bieber was going 110 picks after someone like Aaron Nola, when if you looked at the advanced stats, Bieber was superior to Nola last year (just Nola got very lucky and Bieber got very unlucky last year with BABIP luck)

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On 3/3/2019 at 11:11 AM, taobball said:

 

I   C   BS. 

Did he "mostly" pitch well. Based on what factor? K/BB? Great, he's the next Josh Tomlin. Let's crown him. 

Shane Bieber going where he is being drafted, not even discussing this upside, is absolutely ridiculous. Shane Bieber had a 4.55 ERA last year. He was not a good pitcher. But everyone wants to be all optimistic because on a few distinct metrics he ranked with a low FIP/xFIP and a good K/BB. But K/BB isn't everything or the only thing and people are simply missing a guy who is a highly flawed pitcher.

 

V. LHP:

.311 / .362 / .547 

 

I mean holy-s----balls that's awful. That's not "he struggles v. LHPs" that's "he turns every Left-Handed batter into a Hall-of-Fame caliber player." I mean a .900 freaking OPS? THATS INSANE! 

And there's repertoire issues abound here that have this making logical sense. His Slider, which is a pitch with hefty splits, is his best pitch. He has no real change-up to speak of, and his fastball was hit hard all last year. He has an inconsistent Curveball that may be his most effective POTENTIAL weapon against Lefties. 

 

Shane Bieber is a massively flawed  pitcher that people want to pretend is the greatest regression candidate this year simply because he throws strikes, regardless of what happens once those strikes get into the barrels of his opponents bats. Don't draft Shane Bieber, and don't listen to CBS. 

 

 

 

 

Has your opinion changed at all so far? I haven't watched his starts so I don't know if he's done anything differently. He seems like a real wild card ROS

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17 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Has your opinion changed at all so far? I haven't watched his starts so I don't know if he's done anything differently. He seems like a real wild card ROS

 

No. Can you name the quality lefties he’s faced this year? I’ll do the experiment for us since it’s been 3 GS. 

 

First game was Toronto. Smoak was out looks like he faced Brito, McKinney, and Tellez. Second was Detroit. They didn’t even play CStew. Candelario is technically Switch but blew chunks v RHP last year. That leaves Niko Goodrum? Seattle in start three is clearly the best lineup he’s faced, but even that’s a lineup more-or-less defined by its righties. Haniger/Santana/Encarnacion are the heart. Bruce / Smith / Gordon are the lefties. Two have better feet than bats arguably. One has a sub-.200 BA. 

Hell get a bunch of great matchups in the AL Central so maybe that’ll be enough to carry value. Until he consistently beats good lefties he won’t have taken the step I need to see. He hasn’t done that yet. You couldn’t make a lineup of good lefties with all three opponents combined. I’d consider Niko Goodrum the toughest out of the bunch. Niko, btw, was 1-2 with a BB and SB before Bieber was pulled in their encounter. 

 

Someone can bump me when he plays a legitimate lineup (Mariners still bleh to me comparatively despite hot start) with legitimate lefties. Till then, DGAF. I want to see him play the twinkies. When does that happen?

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I didn't realize Volgly was sitting out. He's probably the M's best Lefty. Weird how its worked with sitting their everyday lefties/Switch vs Bieber (Smoak, CStew, Volgy)

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

No. Can you name the quality lefties he’s faced this year? I’ll do the experiment for us since it’s been 3 GS. 

 

First game was Toronto. Smoak was out looks like he faced Brito, McKinney, and Tellez. Second was Detroit. They didn’t even play CStew. Candelario is technically Switch but blew chunks v RHP last year. That leaves Niko Goodrum? Seattle in start three is clearly the best lineup he’s faced, but even that’s a lineup more-or-less defined by its righties. Haniger/Santana/Encarnacion are the heart. Bruce / Smith / Gordon are the lefties. Two have better feet than bats arguably. One has a sub-.200 BA. 

Hell get a bunch of great matchups in the AL Central so maybe that’ll be enough to carry value. Until he consistently beats good lefties he won’t have taken the step I need to see. He hasn’t done that yet. You couldn’t make a lineup of good lefties with all three opponents combined. I’d consider Niko Goodrum the toughest out of the bunch. Niko, btw, was 1-2 with a BB and SB before Bieber was pulled in their encounter. 

 

Someone can bump me when he plays a legitimate lineup (Mariners still bleh to me comparatively despite hot start) with legitimate lefties. Till then, DGAF. I want to see him play the twinkies. When does that happen?

The Athletic had a great article about how he has worked on a change up.  I'm not sure how much he's throwing it in the early going, but if he develops a solid change up it could go a long way to him improving against lefties 

Edited by RTW10

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27 minutes ago, RTW10 said:

The Athletic had a great article about how he has worked on a change up.  I'm not sure how much he's throwing it in the early going, but if he develops a solid change up it could go a long way to him improving against lefties 

 

Sure if anyone adds a Change-Up that is average to above to their arsenal it changes their arsenal. But he's not throwing one / throwing one much and the results, while inconclusive, aren't exactly what I'd want to see. To put it in a raw count, he's thrown roughly 150 Fastballs, roughly 150 Breaking Balls, and roughly 15 Change-Ups. So not just 10:1 but 10:10:1 when it comes to Change-Up usage. Hasn't gotten it hit hard yet, but also only has 1 Swing and Miss and more than 50% of the Change-Ups he's thrown have been ignored as Balls. 

The real difference so far and the difference that seems in the early going to define the year moving forward is not the Change but the Curve. THe Curve is his pitch to neutralize lefties it seems. That pitch has been far more effective in the early going. And it's certainly a fine repertoire if not ideal to throw a Quality, commanded Fastball + Slider + Curve. But it's not ideal, he allowed a .310+ BA v. LHH last year, and he hasn't FACED tough lefties consistently. 

 

It's the consistently that really changes things too. Quality is one thing, but even if they were higher quality, he's faced mostly scattered lefties this year. Goodrum bats fourth, a little later you deal with a S... Brito Leads-Off, a few righties between him and Tellez... Why the Twins are a match I'll be glued to regardless of result is that the likely lineup is Kepler (L), Polanco (Batting L), Cruz, Rosario (L) just to get things started. The individual quality will be interesting to see, but more so it'll be how many times can he make his "best lefty pitches" and if he can make them consistently enough to make it through a line-up multiple times that stacks lefties at the top. 

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I thought for a second he may miss the braves, but with an off day on Thursday and Monday looks like CLeveland might be going 4-Man for the time being. Hopefully he starts against the Braves and not Miami. The Braves should at least help build the sample quite a bit, one way or the other (Inciarte, Markakis, Albies (S), Freeman) 

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Also: If Shane Bieber pitches better this year, it does not retroactively make him "more unlucky" last year. Narratives get written by victors and if that's what the narrative becomes then that's what the narrative will become, whether I like it or not. But even if he plays his way to a Cy Young it doesn't mean that it happened because "Luck shifted" as opposed to him making changes to improve himself and cover up those blemishes he had from the year previously. I don't know if there's a way you can convince me that him turning Lefties into HOFers last year was luck, even if he's standing on a podium at the end of the year. If his Curve functions more as a "Plus" pitches than simply a "Third Pitch" as it has so far this season, we'll see where he lands when the dust settles. But I don't believe he was unlucky last year, plain and simple. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, taobball said:

But I don't believe he was unlucky last year, plain and simple.

 

For the sake of argument, I took a look at Bieber (I drafted him) A couple of things jump out. First as to his lefty/righty splits and luck, in his 485 batters faced last season he ran into 257 lefties to 228 righties. Even amongst the lefty heavy MLB only about 38% of hitters are left handers. That's an inordinate amount to face. The rest of the Indians starters faced under a 50/50 ratio of LH/RH hitters. Maybe teams were stacking against a rookie? Cleveland in all its wisdom, is the 25th team by shifts. We can already see a problem. Of course lefty hitters are so much more common than the general population because they hit RH pitchers much better than their RH counterparts are are, metaphorically speaking, evolutionarily selected for it.

Looking even closer to the slugging advantage lefties got from Sugar Shane it was basically the difference with Lucas Duda and Eduardo Escobar who combined for for 9 hits with 6 doubles and 3 home runs.

I think, especially for a rookie, he was a little unlucky.

Edited by Chaco Chicken

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6 minutes ago, Chaco Chicken said:

 

For the sake of argument, I took a look at Bieber (I drafted him) A couple of things jump out. First as to his lefty/righty splits and luck, in his 485 batters faced last season he ran into 257 lefties to 228 righties. Even amongst the lefty heavy MLB only about 38% of hitters are left handers. That's an inordinate amount to face. The rest of the Indians starters faced under a 50/50 ratio of LH/RH hitters. Maybe teams were stacking against a rookie? Cleveland in all its wisdom, is the 25th team by shifts. We can already see a problem. Of course lefty hitters are so much more common than the general population because they hit RH pitchers much better than their RH counterparts are are, metaphorically speaking, evolutionarily selected for it.

Looking even closer to the slugging advantage lefties got from Sugar Shane it was basically the difference with Lucas Duda and Eduardo Escobar who combined for for 9 hits with 6 doubles and 3 home runs.

I think, especially for a rookie, he was a little unlucky.

 

If you’re okay to below average against a handedneess, even the lesser one, you can survive. Chacin isn’t great v Lefties and wasn’t all last year. The problem is if he truly is really bad. If he threw a changeup I’d be more likely to buy it. A change is the ideal way to handle the split. Curve is alright, but his Curve at least last year wasn’t a bread-and-butter pitch like his slider. If his Curve turns to a great pitch, with great command, he’ll probably be fine. If he can’t spot it, his Fastball isn’t great and a slider has bad splits and is in general a tough pitch to throw against the opposite hand. Hitters can’t sit on anything if you can throw a Curve/Fastball with above-adequate command. I don’t necessaily believe he did that as consistently last year. 

 

Its a numbers based argument because thats what’s easy. The numbers v LHH jump off the page. But it’s the logic that I care the most about. If he threw a change it would be different. If his rep was different it would be different. But it isn’t, so it’s not. 

 

And lets also be clear: I didn’t bury him. I had him short of ADP, but I like AL Central pitchers and I think there’s upside here. All I’m saying now is essentially there’s very little that has happened this season that should change my viewpoint. He hasn’t been tested the way I need to see him tested and that’s all that matters to me

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6 hours ago, taobball said:

I thought for a second he may miss the braves, but with an off day on Thursday and Monday looks like CLeveland might be going 4-Man for the time being. Hopefully he starts against the Braves and not Miami. The Braves should at least help build the sample quite a bit, one way or the other (Inciarte, Markakis, Albies (S), Freeman) 

As of right now, he's getting Miami.  Bieber, regardless of where he still pitches on the days their 5th starter would have pitched, would likely be considered their 4th starter now with Clevinger out and wouldn't get skipped or pushed back anymore like he did in the first week.

Not trying to argue or knock you at all (nothing personal), but I really do hope that Bieber makes you dead wrong this season.

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7 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

As of right now, he's getting Miami.  Bieber, regardless of where he still pitches on the days their 5th starter would have pitched, would likely be considered their 4th starter now with Clevinger out and wouldn't get skipped or pushed back anymore like he did in the first week.

Not trying to argue or knock you at all (nothing personal), but I really do hope that Bieber makes you dead wrong this season.

 

So who is starting Sunday have they brought someone up yet? Miami better for fantasy numbers, worse for getting to discover Bieber. 

 

And no doubt. I don’t take disagreements the wrong way unless they come from a negative place. Plus Jorge Polanco and Jeff McNeil are life. You’re not hating/loving my real boys. He’s got talent and does a lot of things well. I’m just still waiting to see if he does enough things well this year. The curve has yielded much better results and could effectively even splits a good deal. But I want to see that with good lefties is all. 

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53 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

So who is starting Sunday have they brought someone up yet? Miami better for fantasy numbers, worse for getting to discover Bieber. 

 

And no doubt. I don’t take disagreements the wrong way unless they come from a negative place. Plus Jorge Polanco and Jeff McNeil are life. You’re not hating/loving my real boys. He’s got talent and does a lot of things well. I’m just still waiting to see if he does enough things well this year. The curve has yielded much better results and could effectively even splits a good deal. But I want to see that with good lefties is all. 

ESPN has Kluber still on Friday, with Bauer on Saturday, and Bieber on Sunday.  I was going by Yahoo on my earlier post, which has Kluber going Saturday, Bauer on Sunday, and then Bieber on Tuesday.  Whichever source you think is more reliable I suppose, but the ESPN one makes sense since they would have no need for a 5th starter since they are off tomorrow and next Monday.  So, I guess there is still a possibility Bieber faces Atlanta.

I'm not going to declare that Bieber is a fantasy ace after 3 starts, although shutting down Seattle was encouraging. I don't buy the start for their offense either, and obviously they only had a handful of lefties in there last night, but they still do have some solid hitters in the lineup regardless of whether they are hitting over their heads right now.  Bruce did hit the only HR he's given up so far last night (obviously a lefty).  Even though he is due for some regression, as nobody finishes with stats this low, it would actually be pretty interesting to see him face Atlanta if he ends up doing so.  If he pitches good in that game, then maybe it will be time for more people to start believing.

 

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Following up my last post....  The post game show for the Indians tonight listed Kluber for Friday, so I guess ESPN is correct.

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Posted (edited)

I think I'm convinced. It's still small sample territory but his wOBA vs his xwOBA is beating expectations by 100 points. And that is with a supremely low babip. Expect a regression here and with his hard hit near 50% it could be painful.

Edited by Chaco Chicken

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On the fence on whether I'm starting him today or not given that it's another rough matchup.  On one hand, he's been great on the road so far in his career.  On another, it's Houston in Houston.  They have been held in check so far by Bauer and a bad Kluber though...

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