Homerj24

Shane Bieber 2019 Outlook

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On 4/17/2019 at 8:09 AM, taobball said:

Someone can bump me when he plays a legitimate lineup (Mariners still bleh to me comparatively despite hot start) with legitimate lefties. Till then, DGAF. I want to see him play the twinkies. When does that happen?

 

Only because you asked.

He played MIN on 6/4: 7IP, 5H, 1BB, 7K, 2ER
Both ER on solo HRs.

The lefties in the lineup were:
Kepler 0-4
Polanco 1-4
Cruz 0-4
Rosario 1-4
Gonzalez 2-4
Total: 5-20

2019
vs R: 26.1% K-BB%
vs L: 26.2% K-BB%
 

Interested to hear if your assessment has changed since mid April, although I've no clue how it would not have.

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On 7/1/2019 at 10:59 AM, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Bieber is a truly elite pitcher.

 

K% - 31.7%
BB% - 5.5%
FIP - 3.39
xFIP - 3.08
SIERA - 3.21

He has positive pitch values for all of his pitches, including a 6.4 score for his slider. If he lowers that HR/9 a bit, we are looking at a bonafide ace.

There, fixed that. 😀  One could make the argument that he is already, but I'm not ready to give him that label yet unless he's actually made adjustments and the last 4 games in a row without giving up a HR isn't a fluke.

It's not quoting two posts on separate pages for me for some reason, so I'll just respond here.  taobball has never liked him, so I'm not sure anything would have changed with him.  Well, that and the fact that he's not around much anymore.  I wouldn't worry about it, as Bieber is proving doubters wrong.

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9 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

There, fixed that. 😀  One could make the argument that he is already, but I'm not ready to give him that label yet unless he's actually made adjustments and the last 4 games in a row without giving up a HR isn't a fluke.

It's not quoting two posts on separate pages for me for some reason, so I'll just respond here.  taobball has never liked him, so I'm not sure anything would have changed with him.  Well, that and the fact that he's not around much anymore.  I wouldn't worry about it, as Bieber is proving doubters wrong.

He generally goes strong here during draft season and early on, and then disappears. It’s an established MO

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Posted (edited)

[...]

Seriously though, stating the obvious, it was one hell of a performance.  It's actually amazing in a way how far he's come this season, going from a pitcher some people doubted coming into the season to a bonafide ace.

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story

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I havent paid much attention to him until i just looked up his numbers. Very impressive to the point where he could be a top 10 ROS arm? 

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He'll crack the top 10 SP on the ESPN player rater with his gem tonight (was 12 before the outing), and there's no reason to believe it's not sustainable.

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Posted (edited)
On 7/4/2019 at 1:03 PM, KilloWertz said:

There, fixed that. 😀  One could make the argument that he is already, but I'm not ready to give him that label yet unless he's actually made adjustments and the last 4 games in a row without giving up a HR isn't a fluke.

It's not quoting two posts on separate pages for me for some reason, so I'll just respond here.  taobball has never liked him, so I'm not sure anything would have changed with him.  Well, that and the fact that he's not around much anymore.  I wouldn't worry about it, as Bieber is proving doubters wrong.

He's a different pitcher this year. Last year he only really had the slider working for him. Curve ball was inconsistent and his fastball got too much of the plate. Which lead to major platoon splits

His curveball is way more consistent now, he's developed a respectable change up(which is a stickler with tao's pitching valueations) and he's been better at spotting his fastball. I personally liked him pre-season because i believed in his curve ball would be better + extremely smooth repeatable mechanics would give him room to locate his fastball in the right spots to not get pounded as bad.

Did not see the development of his change up coming. A lot of major pitching breakouts in recent years come from guys full fledged 4 pitch mixes or 3 solid pitches. (Snell, Giolitto and now Bieber) . Something he did not have in the pre-season.

Edited by Slatykamora

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What a STUD!

im curious where guys in redraft leagues drafted him?

i play in a dynasty league and scooped him up when he was called up last year. He has really come a long way. Last year he put up decent numbers but he has taken his game to another level this season. 

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in Dynasty Leagues where would you rank Bieber among the starting pitchers? He has to be in the same tier as a guy like Walker Bueher, right? 

 

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1 minute ago, Under500Forever said:

in Dynasty Leagues where would you rank Bieber among the starting pitchers? He has to be in the same tier as a guy like Walker Bueher, right? 

 

 

Considering his age and the fact he isn't a hard thrower which reduces his injury risk I would put him up there with just about anyone.

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On 7/24/2019 at 10:29 PM, Under500Forever said:

What a STUD!

im curious where guys in redraft leagues drafted him?

i play in a dynasty league and scooped him up when he was called up last year. He has really come a long way. Last year he put up decent numbers but he has taken his game to another level this season. 

 

I took him in the 11th round of a 12 team redraft league. Absolute steal. Brightttttttt future.

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On 3/3/2019 at 12:11 PM, taobball said:

 

I   C   BS. 

Did he "mostly" pitch well. Based on what factor? K/BB? Great, he's the next Josh Tomlin. Let's crown him. 

Shane Bieber going where he is being drafted, not even discussing this upside, is absolutely ridiculous. Shane Bieber had a 4.55 ERA last year. He was not a good pitcher. But everyone wants to be all optimistic because on a few distinct metrics he ranked with a low FIP/xFIP and a good K/BB. But K/BB isn't everything or the only thing and people are simply missing a guy who is a highly flawed pitcher.

 

V. LHP:

.311 / .362 / .547 

 

I mean holy-s----balls that's awful. That's not "he struggles v. LHPs" that's "he turns every Left-Handed batter into a Hall-of-Fame caliber player." I mean a .900 freaking OPS? THATS INSANE! 

And there's repertoire issues abound here that have this making logical sense. His Slider, which is a pitch with hefty splits, is his best pitch. He has no real change-up to speak of, and his fastball was hit hard all last year. He has an inconsistent Curveball that may be his most effective POTENTIAL weapon against Lefties. 

 

Shane Bieber is a massively flawed  pitcher that people want to pretend is the greatest regression candidate this year simply because he throws strikes, regardless of what happens once those strikes get into the barrels of his opponents bats. Don't draft Shane Bieber, and don't listen to CBS. 

 

 

 

 

 

Shane Bieber was the bargain of the century getting drafted outside the top 130.  Honestly speaking, Bieber's peripherals are almost the same as last year with only very slight improvements, the main thing is just that the bad luck he had last year normalized and his ERA is matching his xFIP and FIP this year.  Even with all the emphasis on advanced stats nowadays, I still feel that fantasy owners look too much at a pitcher's ERA the previous year and not enough at their xFIP and FIP.  I mean, Bieber was going 100 picks later than Aaron Nola went the two of them basically had the same peripherals last year, Nola was just crazy lucky and Bieber crazy unlucky.

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On 7/1/2019 at 10:59 AM, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Bieber is a truly elite pitcher.

 

K% - 31.7%
BB% - 5.5%
FIP - 3.39
xFIP - 3.08
SIERA - 3.21

He has positive pitch values for all of his pitches, including a 6.4 score for his slider. If he lowers that HR/9 a bit, we are looking at a 3.00 ERA pitcher.

 

In all fairness, Bieber was an elite pitcher last year too; he just got historically unlucky with this ERA  

K% - 24.3%

BB% - 4.7%

FIP - 3.23

xFIP - 3.30

SIERA - 3.45

It was crazy with those peripherals that he was going outside the top 140.  Even if you reached for him and spent a pick around 125 on him, that was pretty much guaranteed profit, especially given that he pitches in the same division as three rebuilding teams with bad offenses.

 

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Last year, I'd say borderline.  Regardless of the peripherals, he still left the ball over the plate too much and still earned at least some of the hard contact (and obviously HRs).

Presently though, he's an elite pitcher without a doubt.  He's figured out how to still be a control pitcher like he was, but not leave the ball over the plate too much.  He's pretty much the Indians' new Corey Kluber at this point.

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