Sign in to follow this  
IlliniGuy76

Blake Snell 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

As a 25 year old he shot up into the elite Aces conversation.  However, I think he's going to be one of the more polarizing players going into the 2019 season.  He only saw 180 innings total last year (in 31 starts) due to the way the Rays use their staff - that has me a tad concerned.

 

Does he match his production next season?  Do we see a downtick just simply due to how they use their staff?  Is he a pitcher you identify by moving multiple pieces to try to acquire?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

180 is the new 200 for mere mortals. Most teams just don't want even their aces seeing a lineup the third time. I'm more concerned by the control. He cut down on his free passes significantly last year, but that 3+ BB/9 is never going to lead to ace results without some luck, and the 88% LOB from 2018 doesn't seem likely to repeat.

 

Irrespective of price, I'd be happy with him as my SP1 in redraft, but in NFBC he's being priced in the late 2nd / early 3rd round range where I think people are paying for last year's results.  I think I'm going to ether go after one of the arms ahead of him in rounds 1-2 or wait a round and and roll with Cole, Bauer, Severino, or Kershaw, all of whom have warts of their own, but who I see priced more appropriately.

 

Dynasty-wise, I don't think I'm selling the farm to get him before the season starts.  With an AL East-heavy schedule to begin the season, I'd be looking to see if he struggles a bit and see if the Snell owner gets nervous enough to sell a bit low.  If he excels, well, I missed out, but I also didn't give up the king's ransom it'd take to get him right now.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

As a 25 year old he shot up into the elite Aces conversation.  However, I think he's going to be one of the more polarizing players going into the 2019 season.  He only saw 180 innings total last year (in 31 starts) due to the way the Rays use their staff - that has me a tad concerned.

 

Does he match his production next season?  Do we see a downtick just simply due to how they use their staff?  Is he a pitcher you identify by moving multiple pieces to try to acquire?

 

 

his fip and xfip say regression may be in the near future

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

His stuff is just utterly devastating that I don't see much of a drop in production. As long as he can maintain his 96-98 heater he's going to dominate. 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

His stuff is just utterly devastating that I don't see much of a drop in production. As long as he can maintain his 96-98 heater he's going to dominate. 

 

its his control that worries people

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

its his control that worries people

 

But was it really that bad? I know prior to last year it was what everyone was concerned about coming into the season but it didn't seem to affect him last year due to how good he was in other places. Something to note is that he improved his walk numbers from pre to post-ASB from 3.55BB/9 to 2.48BB/9. Some will point out his low BABIP but, although there is expected to be some regression there, I see him being a guy that will produce low BABIP numbers throughout his career due to his ability to induce a high GB% and low LD%. Couple that with his near league leading SwStr% and I think he'll be able to provide close to top 10 results again this year. 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, King_of_Kings said:

The most cringeworthy thing you'll see in 2019.

 

021319_gif_snell_flossing.gif

The scariest early round pick for me just got even scarier. Thanks.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/23/2019 at 4:46 PM, BostonCajun said:

 

But was it really that bad? I know prior to last year it was what everyone was concerned about coming into the season but it didn't seem to affect him last year due to how good he was in other places. Something to note is that he improved his walk numbers from pre to post-ASB from 3.55BB/9 to 2.48BB/9. Some will point out his low BABIP but, although there is expected to be some regression there, I see him being a guy that will produce low BABIP numbers throughout his career due to his ability to induce a high GB% and low LD%. Couple that with his near league leading SwStr% and I think he'll be able to provide close to top 10 results again this year. 

 

Because of the curveball I think, more than the elite heat.  The bottom falls out of that thing and even Elite hitters can't seem to lay off.  He's going to face some excellent lineups in the AL East but though they may be great hitters, pretty much all of them have some degree of strikeout issues.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah that was a homer fest. The Stro's are a pretty tough matchup so deference there but he sucked pretty much; 3Ks vs a lineup that likes to hack in 6 IP? Not a good start.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hate to see one of my aces get beat up like that.  When I think of ace I think of a guy who rarely gets hit hard.  It happens to the best of them but happening first time out is a concern.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, B&F said:

Hate to see one of my aces get beat up like that.  When I think of ace I think of a guy who rarely gets hit hard.  It happens to the best of them but happening first time out is a concern.  

happened to sale

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would be much more concerned if Snell got beat up by a mediocre offense. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, chud12 said:

I would be much more concerned if Snell got beat up by a mediocre offense. 

 

Image result for i see what you did there gif

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, B&F said:

Hate to see one of my aces get beat up like that.  When I think of ace I think of a guy who rarely gets hit hard.  It happens to the best of them but happening first time out is a concern.  

Honestly, I think it is less concerning being the first time out. They don't push kids or veterans in ST. Snell through 75 pitches in a minor league game. He was going to make the bump to 90ish yesterday. He just hasn't had enough work because he is young and they are being very mindful of his workload. 

Nothing to see here. He wasn't sharp. They hit some HRs on his mistakes. He will adjust, build up arm strength, and will be fine. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah I’m not concerned at all either. As was stated above he had limited work in spring training and from what I saw yesterday it’s not like he was out of control. He just got hit hard by a very good offense. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Did anyone panic sell after his first start? Come forward now, we won't judge you 😂

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You can't spell Snell without s-e-x. 

Well, I mean you can, but why?

  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Yeah that's much more like it. 

He was handled start 1 by a good offense. start 2 was also against a comparable offense. Rockies are showing their typical "road mediocrity" to start this season, but they are talented nonetheless. 

This performance strikes me as he was chomping at the bit to erase the HOU start. This may be one of the most dominant starts all season in MLB.

Edited by SuperJoint
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Back on his game. Wish he could go a bit deeper but gotta love the K's.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   1 member