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IlliniGuy76

Blake Snell 2019 Outlook

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3 hours ago, Ecofolux said:

Yeah Monday @NYY  :(    ughhhhh what to do? Last time he was DESTROYED at Yankee Stadium, but the start before that he was very good at Yankee Stadium...

 

He has a lot of weapons.  He won't be using the same pitches as last time.

He did well against them in his home start.  

Not a lot of other options.

Unlikely he will be blown up again.

 

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I'm starting him tonight. Period.

He's put together two good starts in a row (one of which against the Yanks, albeit at home) and for me that was the one thing I wanted to see out of him before moving him off the bench. On top of that, he's got a fantastic 12.2 K/9 and his K/BB is a hair under 4, while at the same time his BABIP against is way elevated at .351 (not to mention he isn't even in the top 30 in HR allowed in MLB and he hasn't even given up the most HR on his own team).

The dude is primed and set for a massive correction in the RIGHT direction, and I'm banking on Cy Young caliber numbers in the second half with how nasty his stuff is.

Look, you drafted him in the third or fourth round, most likely, and you didn't spend that high of a draft pick just to leave the guy on the bench because it's the Yankees - especially after he's put himself together over his last two starts and especially when the numbers scream for a turnaround.

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6 minutes ago, Dmourning said:

I'm starting him tonight. Period.

Three periods in a row. How can you argue with that?!

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Odds tonight

Quality start - 50%

Blowup - 25%

Gem - 15%

Other - 10%

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43 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

Is he a twice through the lineup guy now?

 

He just throws so many pitches and they treat him with kiddie gloves.  Not a good combination for fantasy.  

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13 hours ago, B&F said:

 

Odds tonight

Quality start - 50%

Blowup - 25%

Gem - 15%

Other - 10%

I should’ve bet the “Other”!

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Setting aside fantasy results he pitched well in a tough matchup.  Trying to be optimistic here.

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11 minutes ago, B&F said:

 

Setting aside fantasy results he pitched well in a tough matchup.  Trying to be optimistic here.

 

I agree. Hitters were being very patient with him and working the counts full multiple times yet he was able to get out of a lot of those at bats unscathed and still only wound up with 3 hits and 2 walks against. This obviously hindered his ability to go deeper. He was averaging roughly 20 pitches per inning finishing with 93 after 5. So they opted to have his night end without going back out for the 6th, which I know we all were upset about because we wanted one more inning for stats, but I think was the wise choice. They let him finish with a good line, albeit inefficient, but this could have been a nice confidence booster after what they did to him last time out in Yankee Stadium. He gets the White Sox and the Blue Jays next so things are looking up imo. 

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The problem with Mr. Snell is that he may be coming around as a real life pitcher but his ceiling is dramatically capped as a fantasy pitcher this year.  He’s had 19 starts and has only surpassed 6 innings twice.  He’s only completed 7 innings once.  For QS leagues, that severely limits his value.  Maybe the book is out on him but he’s had a high pitch count early in games all year.  The other issue with him is that he doesn’t exactly have a high floor.  He’s been pummeled in quite a few games.  So low floor and low ceiling.  Not at all what we expected when we drafted/kept this guy.

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He’s been throwing an unusually high percentage of FBs recently.  I wonder if he’s having trouble gripping his breakers.

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23 minutes ago, BMcP said:

He’s been throwing an unusually high percentage of FBs recently.  I wonder if he’s having trouble gripping his breakers.

 

might be the seams on the new balls this year?

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2 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

might be the seams on the new balls this year?

I thought the balls were new last year.  

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1 hour ago, gbill2004 said:

I thought the balls were new last year.  

 

Snells balls were new last year, he's still looking for them this year. Oh err, that's not what you meant.

 

pVcwR.gif

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4 hours ago, mehtavg2000 said:

The problem with Mr. Snell is that he may be coming around as a real life pitcher but his ceiling is dramatically capped as a fantasy pitcher this year.  He’s had 19 starts and has only surpassed 6 innings twice.  He’s only completed 7 innings once.  For QS leagues, that severely limits his value.  Maybe the book is out on him but he’s had a high pitch count early in games all year.  The other issue with him is that he doesn’t exactly have a high floor.  He’s been pummeled in quite a few games.  So low floor and low ceiling.  Not at all what we expected when we drafted/kept this guy.

Wow, that's extremely troubling information. How bad was he last year in QS opportunities?

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1 hour ago, AnonymousRob said:

Wow, that's extremely troubling information. How bad was he last year in QS opportunities?

 

He had 31 starts last year.  He pitched more than 6 innings in 13 of them.  He had 19 QSs.  This year he has 9 QSs in 19 games.  So his QS rate is a little lower than last year but he's definitely not going as deep in games.  Also, he only had 2 starts the entire year where he was "blown up".  This year he's already had 4 or 5 "blow ups".  Troubling indeed.

Edited by mehtavg2000

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More disturbing information:

His xWOBA for the slider and curveballl in 2019 are drastically lower compared to 2018.

Unless he finds his CB and SL again expectations should be lowered. 

Trade value might be higher than his rest of season performance.

The good?  He can probably still be a sold starter with his fastball and changeup alone. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, B&F said:

More disturbing information:

His xWOBA for the slider and curveballl in 2019 are drastically lower compared to 2018.

Unless he finds his CB and SL again expectations should be lowered. 

Trade value might be higher than his rest of season performance.

The good?  He can probably still be a sold starter with his fastball and changeup alone. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

agree, he's got to figure out the breaking pitches.

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