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IlliniGuy76

Blake Snell 2019 Outlook

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I wasn't going to say anything but I can't help myself due to the massive overreactions I'm seeing in this thread. Yeah he's gotten blown up a few times this year which seems even more significant than it should given how historically dominant Snell was in 2018. That was one of the best seasons a SP has ever put together.

 

That being said, he's not a bust, a drop, a sell low, or any of that! He's a dominant ace who had a couple recent bad starts that is causing unnecessary panic. This has a lot to do with recency bias as 3 of his 5 bad starts this year have come in his last 4 outings. Add in the fact that pitching as a whole has been horribly inconsistent this year leaving fantasy owners frustrated and you get people saying things like we need to bench him. 

 

Here is the list of starts Snell has given up 3 ER or more this year.

-March 28th vs HOU (5ER in 6 IP) - HOU offense is a juggernaut and can make any SP's final line look like this.

-May 1st at KC (7 ER in 3 IP) - This one was completely unexpected.

-June 4th at DET (6 ER in 4.1 IP) - Same here...unexpected.

-June 14th vs LAA (3 ER in 3.1 IP) - This was his first start back after the toe injury in which he was thought to be altering his delivery slightly to accommodate the pain he was still feeling.

-June 19th at NYY (6 ER in 0.1 IP) - NYY have dominated Snell throughout his career except for his prior 2 starts against them on May 6th (5.2 IP 2 ER 12 ks) and May 18th (6 IP 1 ER 9 ks)

 

In his 11 other starts Snell has given up either 0 runs or 1 run in 8 of them while the other 3 he only gave up 2 runs. All his metrics indicate that he's getting unlucky. His FIP (3.37) and xFIP (3.13) both say that his ERA should be lower. His BABIP (.329) is nearly 40 points higher than his career average while his hard hit% is actually down. He's making bats miss more than he ever has and his walk rate is right in line with his 2018 season. He's also giving up less contact this year than he ever has. However, one thing I did notice that was different about this year is that he's using his FB less and his curveball more. In 2018 51.5% of his pitches were FB and 20.2% were CB. This year 41.1% are FB and 29.7% are CB. I'm not sure if he's just trying to put people down more with his curve or what but this is the only thing that stood out to me as being different from his 2018 season. 

 

To conclude....START SNELL!

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1 minute ago, BostonCajun said:

I wasn't going to say anything but I can't help myself due to the massive overreactions I'm seeing in this thread. Yeah he's gotten blown up a few times this year which seems even more significant than it should given how historically dominant Snell was in 2018. That was one of the best seasons a SP has ever put together.

 

That being said, he's not a bust, a drop, a sell low, or any of that! He's a dominant ace who had a couple recent bad starts that is causing unnecessary panic. This has a lot to do with recency bias as 3 of his 5 bad starts this year have come in his last 4 outings. Add in the fact that pitching as a whole has been horribly inconsistent this year leaving fantasy owners frustrated and you get people saying things like we need to bench him. 

 

Here is the list of starts Snell has given up 3 ER or more this year.

-March 28th vs HOU (5ER in 6 IP) - HOU offense is a juggernaut and can make any SP's final line look like this.

-May 1st at KC (7 ER in 3 IP) - This one was completely unexpected.

-June 4th at DET (6 ER in 4.1 IP) - Same here...unexpected.

-June 14th vs LAA (3 ER in 3.1 IP) - This was his first start back after the toe injury in which he was thought to be altering his delivery slightly to accommodate the pain he was still feeling.

-June 19th at NYY (6 ER in 0.1 IP) - NYY have dominated Snell throughout his career except for his prior 2 starts against them on May 6th (5.2 IP 2 ER 12 ks) and May 18th (6 IP 1 ER 9 ks)

 

In his 11 other starts Snell has given up either 0 runs or 1 run in 8 of them while the other 3 he only gave up 2 runs. All his metrics indicate that he's getting unlucky. His FIP (3.37) and xFIP (3.13) both say that his ERA should be lower. His BABIP (.329) is nearly 40 points higher than his career average while his hard hit% is actually down. He's making bats miss more than he ever has and his walk rate is right in line with his 2018 season. He's also giving up less contact this year than he ever has. However, one thing I did notice that was different about this year is that he's using his FB less and his curveball more. In 2018 51.5% of his pitches were FB and 20.2% were CB. This year 41.1% are FB and 29.7% are CB. I'm not sure if he's just trying to put people down more with his curve or what but this is the only thing that stood out to me as being different from his 2018 season. 

 

To conclude....START SNELL!

 

 

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How confident are we today @MIN?

I can make a case to start him.

1) Twins have cooled off.

2) The Yankees are the only team that has hit well against him the past 2 seasons.

3) Most likely none of us are going to do well in our leagues if Snell doesn't contribute in a positive way.  He wasn't a draft day steal.

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11 minutes ago, B&F said:

How confident are we today @MIN?

I can make a case to start him.

1) Twins have cooled off.

2) The Yankees are the only team that has hit well against him the past 2 seasons.

3) Most likely none of us are going to do well in our leagues if Snell doesn't contribute in a positive way.  He wasn't a draft day steal.

I'm starting him with confidence!  

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24 minutes ago, gbill2004 said:

I'm starting him with confidence!  

I’m starting him with my eyes closed and my teeth grinding.

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I didn't think I would regret drafting a player more than I did Yu Darvish last season.

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Only good news is it clearly a mechanical issue.  

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Snell looking like trash. How do you give up 11 hits in 3 innings?

Bench until further notice!

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2 minutes ago, sasnumberonefan said:

This guy is awful. Strongly considering dropping. 

Dont do anything rash.  He's absolutely obliterated any pitching staff hes been on.  We're all mad.  It wojld just make it worse if he went cy young in the second half on someone elses team. A surefire sit though.

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5 minutes ago, B&F said:

Only good news is it clearly a mechanical issue.  

how do we know its a mechanical issue? I didnt watch the game. He was pulled before I got a chance to tune in..

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Blaaron Snola has been my favorite pitcher to own this year 

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7 minutes ago, Orioles123 said:

do it

 

I did. why do I care. 

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He doesn't just lose.  He loses in style.  Over the last month, has he been the worst starting pitcher in baseball?  How is that even possible for him to have a stretch like this with such elite talent.  Truly bizarre.  He must have no mental toughness at all.

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Could he be tipping his pitches?  Its not the toe because he had a great stretch after the injury.  And if it was mechanical,youd figure he would still have some sporadic success...at least an inning.or 2 here and there.  The fact that he has been so sysyematically and thoroughly shelled leads me to think tipping.  I mean even matt moore hasn't had a stretch this bad.

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Including today, over his last 5 starts, dude has a 12.11 ERA. You could say "oh he's faced tough teams etc etc". but his lone win and quality start over that stretch was against Boston. That stretch also includes getting knocked around by the TIGERS and a decrepit old Miguel Cabrera.

I'm done getting burned by this guy. He's riding my bench indefinitely until he gets whatever issues resolved and strings together some decent consecutive starts.

(Don't drop him though, at least not yet)

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Guy got positively roasted today - hard to say if it's bc Twins got hot or Snell just lost it.

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1 minute ago, Skoodog said:

Guy got positively roasted today - hard to say if it's bc Twins got hot or Snell just lost it.

This isnt just 1 start. Hes been mind blowingly bad 4 out of 5.  

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Still has one minor league option year left...  Any Cy Young winners ever been sent down?

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A great chance he's hurt and it's the elbow. Pitchers can still throw with a tear in the UCL, eventually the pain will be too much, or it will become a complete tear. Hopefully I'm wrong. Nothing else makes a lot of sense. Then again when he first come up from the minors dude had these type issues, never could be trusted. Then it seem he figured it all out last season.

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