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Cody Bellinger 2019 Outlook

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What's the outlook on this guy? I have him in dynasty but am concerned about him being moved off 1B...

 

He had an unbelievable rookie year but struggled at times last year. Does he rebound?

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With Bellinger, especially in a dynasty, it needs to be remembered that he is still only 23.  BB/9 looks good (11.7 then 10.9) , K/9 still acceptable (26.6 & 23.9), BABIP of 313 is a bit high but not concerning at all.  wRC+ of 120 & ops+ of 120.  The only huge drop off was the slg% going from 581 to 470, but it think a lot of that was a change in approach and overall maturing in the game.  I personally loved the steps he took last year, wasn't swinging for the fences every pitch (only half of them, ha).

 

The one thing that will not be an issue is PT.  162 games played in 2018. 

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I know he 'played' in 162, but he sat against a bunch of lefties in Aug/Sept...it was kind of annoying, to the point where I sat him some periods because the NL West has a bunch of lefty starters in the div...He's really fine against them too, which made his handling by Roberts even more bothersome. I do not see him being moved off 1B or anything, but it's pretty clear they will deploy Freese at 1B v most LH pitchers, but he should still shift to OF for starts against southpaws. I think a big season is on tap.

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Last season PT was just the result of the Dodgers having a surplus of toys to play with, and they were giving their players as much rest as they could. After the Puig/Kemp trade and losing Manny/Dozier, there isn't any reason to assume that Bellinger won't be getting a typical starters' ABs. That being said, I do think it is more likely that Bellinger will be used in the OF with Muncy the everyday 1B. He may still get enough time at 1B to keep the eligibility for 2020, but he will primarily be in the outfield.

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Steamer has him at 29 HR, 77/89 R/RBIs and a .256 Avg in 592 ABs with 10 steals. I think you'd hope for more, but those are fine stats for middle/end of the 4th where he's going (45 in average ADP), knowing there is upside.  But might be a reach too much into the 3rd for him, though, with the BA risk. SB chip ins mitigates that risk to a degree, but seems like a guy where the hype is outpacing reality.  

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6 hours ago, jbj said:

Last season PT was just the result of the Dodgers having a surplus of toys to play with, and they were giving their players as much rest as they could. After the Puig/Kemp trade and losing Manny/Dozier, there isn't any reason to assume that Bellinger won't be getting a typical starters' ABs. That being said, I do think it is more likely that Bellinger will be used in the OF with Muncy the everyday 1B. He may still get enough time at 1B to keep the eligibility for 2020, but he will primarily be in the outfield.

 

I agree with this. I do think that LA adds another right-handed option for their OF. I think Bellinger is in the OF with Muncy at 1st and Chris Taylor at 2nd on most days. There will be times where Muncy plays 2nd and Belli goes back to 1B. He'll maintain his eligibility. 

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Career .782 careers OPs in his first 2 seasons and he's only 23 and we are worried about a platoon? That would be so stupid of Dave Roberts.

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On 1/22/2019 at 10:58 PM, jspeco9 said:

Career .782 careers OPs in his first 2 seasons and he's only 23 and we are worried about a platoon? That would be so stupid of Dave Roberts.

Dave Roberts is stupid though...

 

I get that the Dodgers have been to the postseason and the common belief is that Roberts is a good manager, but I would argue that they under achieve with him and his lineup construction is mind boggling at times.

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19 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

Dave Roberts is stupid though...

 

I get that the Dodgers have been to the postseason and the common belief is that Roberts is a good manager, but I would argue that they under achieve with him and his lineup construction is mind boggling at times.

It's not really Dave Roberts fault but more so the Dodgers organization as they have recently shifted to a much more statistical analytical approach given recent personnel changes throughout the organization therefore the team has been and most likely will continue to play the matchup game and make more seemingly unconventional lineup and defensive configurations which are based more on data research and scouting than Dave Roberts own intuition or decisions.   Loosing some key players in the mix from last year might soften the approach this year in terms of Bellingers playing time but if he struggles early in the year or for an extended period of time it most likely will result in some sort of platoon or a loss of starts.  

 

And yeah Bellinger might have played in 162 games last year but he did not start in every game either especially in the final couple of months of the season.  It is much easier and a bit misleading to play every game in the national league when you can be used daily as a pinch hitter on days you don't start.  

 

I think Bellinger should rebound if he can prove to make adjustments as the league adjusted to him last year, he is only 23 there is plenty of reason to expect growth and improvements as he matures.  However, I would not expect it nor reach for him in redraft leagues expecting him to recapture his rookie year magic as that could very well go down as one of, if not the best seasons of his career.  

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8 hours ago, 2Balls1Bat said:

It's not really Dave Roberts fault but more so the Dodgers organization

 

When you keep your best hitters on the bench for not one, but two W.S. games in a row, all because of 'what the statistics say', and you also take Hill out of the game when he's pitching lights out, only to get lit up and lose...

 

Then yes, I'd say it's Dave Roberts fault.

 

Good manager. But manages himself out of winning important ballgames.

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At his ADP he is an easy AVOID. People are still paying for 2017 numbers. He was exposed in the 2017 playoffs and that exploitation continued into the 2018 regular season and he was ultra exposed in the 2018 playoffs. 

 

If this is how you want to start your draft in the Top 50 then have at it. 

 

 

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I believe some people said the same thing about Barry Bonds back in the day when he was a young Pittsburgh Pirate and totally flopped in the playoffs

 

in 1990 at the age of 25 Bonds hit .167 with 1 RBI in a 6 game playoff

 

in 1991 at the age of 26 Bonds hit .148 with 0 RBI iin a 7 game playoff

 

I think he did OK during the subsequent regular seasons.

 

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3 hours ago, Cdub2k said:

At his ADP he is an easy AVOID. People are still paying for 2017 numbers. He was exposed in the 2017 playoffs and that exploitation continued into the 2018 regular season and he was ultra exposed in the 2018 playoffs. 

 

If this is how you want to start your draft in the Top 50 then have at it. 

 

 

Eh. The SBs give him a decent floor in 5x5 with upside for me.  30/15 really isn't that far fetched. Even if it comes with .250/.260

 

I'm taking him all day every day over Hoskins. Believe most 5x5 player raters had Bellinger beating Hoskins last year despite less HR/RBI.  Yeah, Hoskins is the more polish hitter. Just the value of getting 10-15 SB with that kinda power upside from 1B.

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6 hours ago, Cdub2k said:

At his ADP he is an easy AVOID. People are still paying for 2017 numbers. He was exposed in the 2017 playoffs and that exploitation continued into the 2018 regular season and he was ultra exposed in the 2018 playoffs. 

 

If this is how you want to start your draft in the Top 50 then have at it. 

 

 

 

What ADP are you looking at?  I am seeing him 40-50 and even his season last year netted him a top 50 finish in most formats.  His numbers were down, but a 120 wRC+ sure isn't shabby.  I am pretty excited about his season as a dynasty owner, but will be more cautious in redrafts to not draft him before the 4th round. 

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6 hours ago, jb_power said:

I believe some people said the same thing about Barry Bonds back in the day when he was a young Pittsburgh Pirate and totally flopped in the playoffs

 

in 1990 at the age of 25 Bonds hit .167 with 1 RBI in a 6 game playoff

 

in 1991 at the age of 26 Bonds hit .148 with 0 RBI iin a 7 game playoff

 

I think he did OK during the subsequent regular seasons.

 

Are you saying Bellinger is going to start juicing? 

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4 hours ago, tsh00k said:

 

What ADP are you looking at?  I am seeing him 40-50 and even his season last year netted him a top 50 finish in most formats.  His numbers were down, but a 120 wRC+ sure isn't shabby.  I am pretty excited about his season as a dynasty owner, but will be more cautious in redrafts to not draft him before the 4th round. 

ESPN has him at 38th overall. 

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I like the talent but the 4th is an overdraft imo.  You are paying for upside or the hope that he takes a step forward. The 10sb projection is valuable but I'd rather invest a 4th elsewhere.

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21 hours ago, dicka24 said:

I like the talent but the 4th is an overdraft imo.  You are paying for upside or the hope that he takes a step forward. The 10sb projection is valuable but I'd rather invest a 4th elsewhere.

Who are you taking in the 4th that's so much more realible?

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On 1/22/2019 at 7:08 AM, tsh00k said:

With Bellinger, especially in a dynasty, it needs to be remembered that he is still only 23.  BB/9 looks good (11.7 then 10.9) , K/9 still acceptable (26.6 & 23.9), BABIP of 313 is a bit high but not concerning at all.  wRC+ of 120 & ops+ of 120.  The only huge drop off was the slg% going from 581 to 470, but it think a lot of that was a change in approach and overall maturing in the game.  I personally loved the steps he took last year, wasn't swinging for the fences every pitch (only half of them, ha).

 

The one thing that will not be an issue is PT.  162 games played in 2018. 

 

I'm curious as to why you think the .313 BABIP is high given that we have so little sample to go off of for his career. He went .299 to .313 from one year to the next

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I just gave up a ton to get him. He’s a huge bounce back candidate. I recently read an article about the drop off of home runs, especially since the steroid area. They asked one of the experts in the article if a 50 HR season will happen again anytime soon, and if so who had the chance to do it. His answer, Bellinger.

 

I expect Cody to have 1B & OF eligibility every year. 

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30 minutes ago, Team Dynasty said:

I just gave up a ton to get him. He’s a huge bounce back candidate. I recently read an article about the drop off of home runs, especially since the steroid area. They asked one of the experts in the article if a 50 HR season will happen again anytime soon, and if so who had the chance to do it. His answer, Bellinger.

 

I expect Cody to have 1B & OF eligibility every year. 

I just did the opposite and traded him away. I still like him despite his power drop last year and should bounce back to a degree, I just think his ADP of around 40 is too close to last years despite dropping off 14 HRs and actually having a full season of ABs. The ADP can be justifiable but after last season I thought the hype would be way down for him but his trade value seems to be through the roof still even in redrafts. For example, I was able to save $15 salary and get Hader in a Holds league for him. 

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1 hour ago, Team Dynasty said:

I just gave up a ton to get him. He’s a huge bounce back candidate. I recently read an article about the drop off of home runs, especially since the steroid area. They asked one of the experts in the article if a 50 HR season will happen again anytime soon, and if so who had the chance to do it. His answer, Bellinger.

 

I expect Cody to have 1B & OF eligibility every year. 

Promote this guy.  In a world of conservative projecting,  we have an optimist.  I like it.  

 

This kid is sweet af. The "he's been exposed" narrative is going to piss him off and i think he's going to grow up a bit and just go HAM.  If you're in,  you're buying into the talent ceiling.  Im in.  

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7 hours ago, Team Dynasty said:

I recently read an article about the drop off of home runs, especially since the steroid area. They asked one of the experts in the article if a 50 HR season will happen again anytime soon, and if so who had the chance to do it. His answer, Bellinger.

Stanton and Judge both had over 50 homeruns in just 2017, and I say both of them have a better chance of getting to 50 in 2019 than Bellinger.

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Check out Bellinger's 1st half of 2017 compared to the following three halves he had in 2017-2018. The floor may be high due to the stolen bases but it looks like he may have been figured out to a certain extent.

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On 1/27/2019 at 4:58 AM, jspeco9 said:

Who are you taking in the 4th that's so much more realible?

 

In his immediate NFBC ADP vicinity (46), I'd take Rendon every day.  I also think Bogaerts is a less risky pick who may well match him in SB, while beating him in R, RBI, and AVG, losing only in HR and perhaps not by that much.

 

But as I look over the ADP I see that Bellinger is in a tight tier as far as 1B goes.  After Goldy/Freeman, Rizzo is going at 36, then Bellinger at 46, then no one until Carp at 71.  Not sure what to make of this at the moment.

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