BrianM

Larry Fitzgerald 2019 Outlook

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On 6/19/2019 at 11:34 AM, SvanE42 said:

Going at the top of the 9th round in PPR right now (WR40). Absolute steal as your WR4. The Cardinals really can't be any worse than last year and I am starting to get excited about DJ and Kyler Murray. If those two are a success, Larry Fitz should follow closely behind them. 

 

He's definitely available around that point in mocks but personally, I've always liked picking guys in this part of the draft that have some "boom" potential. Sure Fitzgerald minimizes the risk with the pick, but at the juncture in the draft (late 8th/9th round in PPR), don't you want someone who could breakout and provide a substantial return on your investment. Guys like Watkins, Allison, Westbrook, MVS, Davis to name a few.

I see Fitz as someone who will be on your bench for much of the season as that guy too valuable to drop, yet not productive enough to start. Those guys are the worst.

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Larry gets no respect.  Didn't have the greatest year last season but that whole offense was dumpster fire.  Air Raid offense favors quick passes and getting the ball out, so why wouldn't that mean a lot of targets going Larry's way?  I think he'll be a bargain at his ADP.

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43 minutes ago, CooL said:

Larry gets no respect.  Didn't have the greatest year last season but that whole offense was dumpster fire.  Air Raid offense favors quick passes and getting the ball out, so why wouldn't that mean a lot of targets going Larry's way?  I think he'll be a bargain at his ADP.

 

i'll give him respect (see below), but i'm kinda glad his 2-page thread is only two pages and not the 65 pages of a damien williams onslaught-out-of-control-and-going-nowhere...

 

1 hour ago, nonstopfan said:

 

He's definitely available around that point in mocks but personally, I've always liked picking guys in this part of the draft that have some "boom" potential. Sure Fitzgerald minimizes the risk with the pick, but at the juncture in the draft (late 8th/9th round in PPR), don't you want someone who could breakout and provide a substantial return on your investment. Guys like Watkins, Allison, Westbrook, MVS, Davis to name a few.

I see Fitz as someone who will be on your bench for much of the season as that guy too valuable to drop, yet not productive enough to start. Those guys are the worst.

 

considering that last year in the desert rotted because of multiple offensive issues, not least of all poor QB play, isn’t it at least possible that in the air raid and its increased volume of plays, larry fitzgerald returns to where he was in 2017? certainly, he has not shown signs of slowing down, though the cardinals as a whole (hole?) slowed down last season. i know i was offended.

 

true, he’ll have competition for targets, and true some of this competition is great, but that might be mitigated by competent QB play and competent coaching. not suggesting murray is the new mahomes, but predicting / projecting competency seems safe enough. i know one thing: fitzgerald will see the shares of snaps his veterancy deserves; the three rookies and kevin white will watch and learn from fitzgerald.

 

so, just two seasons ago, 2017, larry fitzgerald saw 161 targets, corralled 109 of these targets, earned 1156 yards, and saw the end zone 6 times. if his catch rate stays the same but he loses 25% of these targets, we’re looking at 76 receptions and almost 900 yards. that would put fitzgerald within the top 24 for WRs using 2018 stats (for both receptions and for yards).

 

so the short of it is, fitzgerald’s ADP in full-PPR is 7.12, yet his solidity could easily put him in the WR20 to WR30 range at season’s end. his game-play, hands, and usage should keep his weekly floor solid as he sees 5-10 targets.

 

while he may lack the upside you’re noting, fitzgerald definitely does not seem to be a bench-sitter; seems a much better bet / value for weekly WR2 numbers at 7.12 than golladay, cook, boyd, lockett, etc. at their round 3 to round 5 price tag… just sayin’

is larry fitzgerald the rocket WR1 seen here in the superbowl 10 years ago, no, but a 7.12 price tag seems a no-brainer.

2018_01_31_11_46_22.gif

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1 hour ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

i'll give him respect (see below), but i'm kinda glad his 2-page thread is only two pages and not the 65 pages of a damien williams onslaught-out-of-control-and-going-nowhere...

 

 

considering that last year in the desert rotted because of multiple offensive issues, not least of all poor QB play, isn’t it at least possible that in the air raid and its increased volume of plays, larry fitzgerald returns to where he was in 2017? certainly, he has not shown signs of slowing down, though the cardinals as a whole (hole?) slowed down last season. i know i was offended.

 

 

 

true, he’ll have competition for targets, and true some of this competition is great, but that might be mitigated by competent QB play and competent coaching. not suggesting murray is the new mahomes, but predicting / projecting competency seems safe enough. i know one thing: fitzgerald will see the shares of snaps his veterancy deserves; the three rookies and kevin white will watch and learn from fitzgerald.

 

 

 

so, just two seasons ago, 2017, larry fitzgerald saw 161 targets, corralled 109 of these targets, earned 1156 yards, and saw the end zone 6 times. if his catch rate stays the same but he loses 25% of these targets, we’re looking at 76 receptions and almost 900 yards. that would put fitzgerald within the top 24 for WRs using 2018 stats (for both receptions and for yards).

 

 

 

so the short of it is, fitzgerald’s ADP in full-PPR is 7.12, yet his solidity could easily put him in the WR20 to WR30 range at season’s end. his game-play, hands, and usage should keep his weekly floor solid as he sees 5-10 targets.

 

 

 

while he may lack the upside you’re noting, fitzgerald definitely does not seem to be a bench-sitter; seems a much better bet / value for weekly WR2 numbers at 7.12 than golladay, cook, boyd, lockett, etc. at their round 3 to round 5 price tag… just sayin’

 

 

is larry fitzgerald the rocket WR1 seen here in the superbowl 10 years ago, no, but a 7.12 price tag seems a no-brainer.

2018_01_31_11_46_22.gif

Man warner was so freakin accurate, I agree larry is a steal right now. The last game shows that this offense willl be using a lot of short/ intermediate routes which benefit larry. Ill be starting him in my flex weekly and load up in rbs in the 4th and 5th.

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2 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

i'll give him respect (see below), but i'm kinda glad his 2-page thread is only two pages and not the 65 pages of a damien williams onslaught-out-of-control-and-going-nowhere...

 

 

considering that last year in the desert rotted because of multiple offensive issues, not least of all poor QB play, isn’t it at least possible that in the air raid and its increased volume of plays, larry fitzgerald returns to where he was in 2017? certainly, he has not shown signs of slowing down, though the cardinals as a whole (hole?) slowed down last season. i know i was offended.

 

 

 

true, he’ll have competition for targets, and true some of this competition is great, but that might be mitigated by competent QB play and competent coaching. not suggesting murray is the new mahomes, but predicting / projecting competency seems safe enough. i know one thing: fitzgerald will see the shares of snaps his veterancy deserves; the three rookies and kevin white will watch and learn from fitzgerald.

 

 

 

so, just two seasons ago, 2017, larry fitzgerald saw 161 targets, corralled 109 of these targets, earned 1156 yards, and saw the end zone 6 times. if his catch rate stays the same but he loses 25% of these targets, we’re looking at 76 receptions and almost 900 yards. that would put fitzgerald within the top 24 for WRs using 2018 stats (for both receptions and for yards).

 

 

 

so the short of it is, fitzgerald’s ADP in full-PPR is 7.12, yet his solidity could easily put him in the WR20 to WR30 range at season’s end. his game-play, hands, and usage should keep his weekly floor solid as he sees 5-10 targets.

 

 

 

while he may lack the upside you’re noting, fitzgerald definitely does not seem to be a bench-sitter; seems a much better bet / value for weekly WR2 numbers at 7.12 than golladay, cook, boyd, lockett, etc. at their round 3 to round 5 price tag… just sayin’

 

 

is larry fitzgerald the rocket WR1 seen here in the superbowl 10 years ago, no, but a 7.12 price tag seems a no-brainer.

 

 

You make some good points, but viewing Fitzgerald as a WR2 and being more productive than Golladay, Body, Lockett? We will have to disagree there.

The thing about saying how good he was from 2015-2017 would hold more weight if he wasn't 35 years old with 16 years of NFL wear and tear on his body. In 2017, he had the likes of JJ Nelson, Chad Williams, Jaron Brown, the oft-injured John Brown and the mighty Jermaine Gresham that he had to share targets with. He had a washed up AP, Kerwynn Williams and a soon to be retired Chris Johnson at RB. Let's just say that this team did not win 8 games because of their offense.

DJ, Isabella, Kirk and Clay will definitely soak up substantial targets from Murray. Which brings me to my main point which is Murray. I'm sorry, I'm not ready to crown this guy just yet. I have some reservations with just how good Murray and in this air raid system by Kliff Kingsbury in getting the ball to his receivers. 

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24 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

You make some good points, but viewing Fitzgerald as a WR2 and being more productive than Golladay, Body, Lockett? We will have to disagree there.

The thing about saying how good he was from 2015-2017 would hold more weight if he wasn't 35 years old with 16 years of NFL wear and tear on his body. In 2017, he had the likes of JJ Nelson, Chad Williams, Jaron Brown, the oft-injured John Brown and the mighty Jermaine Gresham that he had to share targets with. He had a washed up AP, Kerwynn Williams and a soon to be retired Chris Johnson at RB. Let's just say that this team did not win 8 games because of their offense.

DJ, Isabella, Kirk and Clay will definitely soak up substantial targets from Murray. Which brings me to my main point which is Murray. I'm sorry, I'm not ready to crown this guy just yet. I have some reservations with just how good Murray and in this air raid system by Kliff Kingsbury in getting the ball to his receivers. 

 

maybe i wasn't clear in my post, but when i say "weekly WR2 numbers" over golladay, boyd, and lockett, i mean that fitzgerald's floor is more stable: he'll net the 10-15 points per week, whereas those other receivers will net 3 points some weeks, 30 points other weeks. fitzgerald has the higher floor, though his upside is limited.

also, i disagree regarding wear and tear: last season was essentially a vacation for fitzgerald as the WRs essentially had sundays off.

i really like the ricky seals-jones grab we saw this week, not sure how much clay will factor in. and of course the WR corps is deep, but i project kirk and fitzgerald being the only constants in the corps. isabella talk has been silenced by keyjohnson (and i'm loaded on isabella in dynasty), plus isabella seems a better fit for the slot (fitzgerald's space), which makes projecting his 2018 usage difficult.

again, if fitzgerald was going several rounds earlier, i'd be more inclined to see your point, but the 7.12 price tag is peanuts, and it means you've already drafted your starting team... be worth it / economical to draft fitzgerald at 7.12 and sit him the first week just see the reality in arizona, and the cost is negligible. but regarding your reservations about arizona's offense, it looked energetic and solid for the first preseason action, albeit brief for the first string.

 

 

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Still quiet on this front. Think I snagged this guy in 8th round in 2 leagues. Just seems some value is still there...

 

Still was a wr3 in a bad offense. This team is gonna throw like crazy, they'll have to with that Trainwreck of a defense.

Is he just too boring?

 

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solid Safe WR in PPR and ill be looking to snag as my WR3/4 or first bench WR ish

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Took Fitz in the 9th round. Crazy to think the guy had 110 catches just 2 seasons ago. I believe he finishes as their #1 WR, despite the moves they made in the draft/off season. 

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8 minutes ago, jwilsonxo said:

Took Fitz in the 9th round. Crazy to think the guy had 110 catches just 2 seasons ago. I believe he finishes as their #1 WR, despite the moves they made in the draft/off season. 

Agreed this offense looks like a lot of quick slants and screens etc, passes not longer than 15 yards. Fitz should be pretty good really interested to see how he does game one. 

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4 hours ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

Is he just too boring?

 

Yup, pretty much. Even when he was putting up WR1 PPR numbers a few years ago nobody talks about him until the end of the season when they call him a sneaky value and then go back to ignoring him next season. Get used to it :) He's always a great value and I can't see how the "possession" receiver in this offense doesn't end up having great PPR value.

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Posted (edited)
On 8/11/2019 at 10:08 AM, nonstopfan said:

 

He's definitely available around that point in mocks but personally, I've always liked picking guys in this part of the draft that have some "boom" potential. Sure Fitzgerald minimizes the risk with the pick, but at the juncture in the draft (late 8th/9th round in PPR), don't you want someone who could breakout and provide a substantial return on your investment. Guys like Watkins, Allison, Westbrook, MVS, Davis to name a few.

I see Fitz as someone who will be on your bench for much of the season as that guy too valuable to drop, yet not productive enough to start. Those guys are the worst.

Fitz could definitely go for 100/1200/12 this year.

Arizona could have, what, 650-700 pass attempts this year?

They're gonna run 70-80 plays/game, right?

That's at least the plan I think.

Not saying its gonna happen, just that Fitz has as much upside as any WR from the 4th round on

 

Edit: so I was reading an article, maybe mmqb, that was talking about the air raid offense.  One of the key things is that there aren't really a ton of designed routes - it's more backyard, get open type concepts.  The design is to create lots of space and for the WR+QB to recognize where the opening is going to be and meet up there.  While I'm a bit skeptical of the prospects for such a thing working as a base offense in the NFL, if anyone is going to make it work it's one of the best receivers to ever play the game

Edited by SadFaceHappy

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Larry is just the old veteran who doesn't get any respect or attention.  I'd happily have him as my WR3.  Maybe a little boring, doesn't have the ceiling as a lot of the other guys in the league, but he's dependable.

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Read this nice little tidbit on Rotoballer.com...

 

"The hype surrounding Kyler Murray is real. Everybody is buying into Arizona's fast-paced and bombing offense under Kliff Kingsbury. Oh, and Larry Fitzgerald will keep burning defenses as he has been doing for the last gazillion years. Some things never change."

 

True or not true?

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56 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Read this nice little tidbit on Rotoballer.com...

 

"The hype surrounding Kyler Murray is real. Everybody is buying into Arizona's fast-paced and bombing offense under Kliff Kingsbury. Oh, and Larry Fitzgerald will keep burning defenses as he has been doing for the last gazillion years. Some things never change."

 

True or not true?

And it was posted 9/1/19

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I'm not buying the Kirk hype. I will gladly take Fitz in PPR as a WR3.

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Took Fitz as WR3 in my main 3-keeper league.  After those first proven guys are taken off the board, the wr landscape this draft in particular was one sizable risk after another.  Fitzgerald comes with the same risk but costs way less which can maybe help you stack other positions.  At least I'm hoping it works out that way.  I can certainly see one last year in the sun for Larry.  

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Fitz is going to get opportunity in this offense.  Especially if it turns shootout.

 

Not surprised.  He lead his team in targets with 13.

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Yeah I think the main thing is that he actually looked good. He looked plenty fast enough and still competing at a high level out there. I specifically remember them throwing it to him 2 times in a row in the redzone in one of the drives. 

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Only guy I have on all 4 of my teams - and yahoo grades killed me for drafting him every time.

That's fine.

No idea why everyone sleeps on this guy for the last like 5 years.

100+ catches, 1200+ yards, 10+ TDs this season.  That's a fairly conservative estimate 

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3 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Only guy I have on all 4 of my teams - and yahoo grades killed me for drafting him every time.

That's fine.

No idea why everyone sleeps on this guy for the last like 5 years.

100+ catches, 1200+ yards, 10+ TDs this season.  That's a fairly conservative estimate 

I think you estimates for the season are a little high but still expect him to have a good one.

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19 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Only guy I have on all 4 of my teams - and yahoo grades killed me for drafting him every time.

That's fine.

No idea why everyone sleeps on this guy for the last like 5 years.

100+ catches, 1200+ yards, 10+ TDs this season.  That's a fairly conservative estimate 

 

All Yahoo's dumb algorithm talked about after my draft was how dumb I was for drafting Larry in the 7th in a 12 team league. LMAO

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Got this dude in the 11th - love it! Zona’s defense is bad and they’re going to be throwing a ton this year. Absolute money as my WR3.

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Dropped Allison after TNF and grabbed Fitz, figured he would be some steady hands for Murray to throw to - seems about right.  Wish I actually had started him (and Watkins) this week.  How we feeling about him next week at the Ravens tho?

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