Schmakky141

Kelce - Draft idea for 2019

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Just thinking out loud here guys, seeking pro’s and con’s opinions for my “method to madness”....

 

hear me out...

 

im in an 8 team league where every coach has a reasonably solid team...

(yes, i would rather a 12, but being in a small town in australia, we are limited to finding people with the same pssion for NFL)

I won our leagues 2018 season last year, and therefore, our leagues rule is  the reverse the seasons final standings for the following years draft order. (Ie. 1st place gets 8th pick, 2nd place gets 7th pick........... 8th place gets 1st pick. Etc)

 

i know it’s EXTREMELY early to predict anything, but f--- it, its fun......

predicting our draft round 1 next season looks something like this -

(im pick 8 ***)

 

ROUND 1 -
1 - Gurley
2 - Saquon
3 - Zeke/Mccaffrey
4 - Zeke/Mccaffrey
5 - Gordon (Chargers fan)
6 - Connor (Steelers fan)
7 - Kamara
*** 8 - Bell/Chubb/Mixon/Adams/Nuk
 
Heres the Travis Kelce relevance...
at my round 2 pick (pick 2.1, 9th overall), i am strongly considering on a major reach of taking Kelce, and while it sounds stupid to take him ahead of guys like AB, Mixon, Nuk. Etc....
REASONING =
• I have always personally believed drafting on the ends (picks 1 or 8) you need to be very BOLD with your selections as it is a long time before your next pick.
(In this example, round 3.8 - pick 24 is my next pick)
• If i was to reach on Kelce at 2.1, my thoughts are that it will potentially and hopefully cause a panic amongst the league, as we are all very aware how helpful a top teir TE is in an 8 team league, and feel between my round 2 and 3 picks that Ertz, Kittle and possibly even Ebron (if im lucky) may all be reached on and taken.... therefore pushing 1-3 fallers down toward my round 3.1 pick... (best case scenario)
• im certain Ertz and Kittle would be reached on if Kelce goes EARLY and taken before my next pick, which pushes 2 guys that “shouldnt”
be there at my pick for round 3.
• I also go by a theory in drafting that “YOU HAVE TO REACH TO GUARENTEE GETTING WHAT YOU WANT” and Kelce has proven he is worth the reach posting WR1 numbers consecutive seasons, and with Mahomes at the helm now, even more so...
• worst case scenario, i do this and i get off to a bad win-loss record to start the season, i have trade value in Kelce who demands “paying overs” on the trade market, and can really be a helpful tool on the trade block if needed... again, worst case scenario... fall back insurance...
• the “blindside” factor, that it will potentially change/put off any predraft planning the other 7 coaches have done... None of them will plan for TEs to start going off the board so early in their mock drafting. Etc, giving me an advantage to be able to plan for it, while all their preseason plans go out the window...
 
 
 
just thinking out loud and gettind carried away, haha, but would appreciate your opinions on this thought???
 
 
cheers guys

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On the back to back picks go RB first, then Kelce TE is very weak after him, Kittle, Ertz, Ebron. Left Gronk off the list since he's gonna retire after the Super Bowl. 

Edited by Rush2112
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9 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

On the back to back picks go RB first, then Kelce TE is very weak after him, Kittle, Ertz, Ebron. Left Gronk off the list since he's gonna retire after the Super Bowl. 

Thanks for replying...

 

so you like the idea of Kelce at 9th overall

(round 2, pick 1) based off of the thoughts behind it?

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1 hour ago, Schmakky141 said:

Thanks for replying...

 

so you like the idea of Kelce at 9th overall

(round 2, pick 1) based off of the thoughts behind it?

If you have internet you dont need to restrict yourself to your aussie brothers. Theres plenty of sites where you can join redraft/keeper/dynasty

 

Id probably pass and then try to pick up kittle later. I dont know, I always seem to do fine without taking a TE within the top 6 rounds.

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I'm fine with it.  TE only goes about four deep, and as someone who suffered through Jimmy Graham this season, I say lock in the sure thing.

 

Return the favor?

 

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5 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

If you have internet you dont need to restrict yourself to your aussie brothers. Theres plenty of sites where you can join redraft/keeper/dynasty

 

Id probably pass and then try to pick up kittle later. I dont know, I always seem to do fine without taking a TE within the top 6 rounds.

Thanks for that...

I am im a few leagues yeh... some are 12 team PPR aswell.....

The one i am in referance to however, is my main league as we have a cash buy in, a plaqued trophy and a private facebook page with weekly awards for best coaching move/decision and penalties for the worst one..... voted by the league... Everyone gets into and its a decent league to be apart of...

This is the one i put most effort in and the one thats got me scratching my head as we already have determined to draft order based on last seasons final standings.

 

 

My problem is if I pass on Kelce at the round 2 area... I may aswell just snag somebody in the later rounds because i highly doubt Kelce, Ertz, Kittle or Ebron will be there at the 3/4 turnaround for my 3rd and 4th pick...

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I think Kelce is worthy of a 2nd round pick though I would think that he’d go into round 3 in an 8 team league. I could be wrong though. 

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51 minutes ago, GreatScott! said:

I think Kelce is worthy of a 2nd round pick though I would think that he’d go into round 3 in an 8 team league. I could be wrong though. 

Thanks mate.

 

I personally think in an 8 teamer, he “should” make it to the third round also... but i really dont see him making it to my end of the round, 3.8 pick...

 

the round 2.1 pick (9 overall) is to cause panic amongst the league, mess up any predraft plants they may of had, gain me a “set and forget” at a very shallow position... 

If another coach was to panic, and take Ertz and Kittle once Kelce gets reached on... that pushes 2 guys back down further to my 3.8 pick that “shouldnt” of been available for me that late in round 3....

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9th overall is too rich for me tbh. 

Would understand this if it was a 16 team league where your just watching people draft for an hour when your pick is over (trust me, I've been there).

 

Ertz or Kittle should be there at pick 24 when it's your turn again. And I think the difference between a Nuk (example for WR going at 8) and AJG (example for WR going at around 24) is larger than Kelce to Ertz.

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I would grab the top rb and top wr and on the swing try and tie up Kelch with mahomes. 8 teams are extremely close and just about everyone has rbs. finding ways to win those odd positions are the key, Tight End would be that odd position.

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3 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

I would grab the top rb and top wr and on the swing try and tie up Kelch with mahomes. 8 teams are extremely close and just about everyone has rbs. finding ways to win those odd positions are the key, Tight End would be that odd position.

 

What?

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I persoanlly would rather take RB1 and WR1 at my 8-9 pick, i would have first pick at WR of Nuk, Adams, Hill, Thomas, Julio and AB.

 

But, i think the choice to pass on one of these big names to get Kelce (whos numbers arent that far behind this crop) alongside his positional value being that TE is tough to come by.

I know once Kelce goes in my league, that Ertz and Kittle go straight after..... without hesitation.....Our league from previous seasons understands the importance of TE set and forget too much. Kelce literally carried the coach who finished top seed in regular season to a 11-3 record... I dont see Ertz or Kittle making it to 24 if i dont take Kelce at TE1 off the board.

If i can cause a panic domino effect at TE early, that “should” push WR names such as Evans, OBJ, Juju, Green, Allen down to my 24 pick for my WR1 slot.

While aiming at guys in the 5/6 turn around like Golladay for WR2.

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20 minutes ago, Schmakky141 said:

I persoanlly would rather take RB1 and WR1 at my 8-9 pick, i would have first pick at WR of Nuk, Adams, Hill, Thomas, Julio and AB.

 

But, i think the choice to pass on one of these big names to get Kelce (whos numbers arent that far behind this crop) alongside his positional value being that TE is tough to come by.

I know once Kelce goes in my league, that Ertz and Kittle go straight after..... without hesitation.....Our league from previous seasons understands the importance of TE set and forget too much. Kelce literally carried the coach who finished top seed in regular season to a 11-3 record... I dont see Ertz or Kittle making it to 24 if i dont take Kelce at TE1 off the board.

If i can cause a panic domino effect at TE early, that “should” push WR names such as Evans, OBJ, Juju, Green, Allen down to my 24 pick for my WR1 slot.

While aiming at guys in the 5/6 turn around like Golladay for WR2.

Then just grab delanie Walker in the 10th

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Just now, bhawks489 said:

Then just grab delanie Walker in the 10th

hahaha.

if I choose to go with the RB1/WR1 option, I would seriously consider doing that or Hunter Henry.

I went this approach last year with Trey Burton at round 8 and was left picking up the pieces all season in the TE area.

cost me crucial matchups until I took a risk and traded for Gronk who wasn't any better. (got him cheap, don't worry haha).

 

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IMO, if there is a player you want, you take him. I agree if you go Kelce, that someone in Rd 2 or Rd 3 before you will scoop up Ertz & Kittle which should help you get a RB/WR in rd 3-4. I think there are a number of drafts where Mahomes goes rd 2 (maybe even rd 1 & if so, they are going to target Kelce &/or T Hill, to have a nice combo, which makes sense to me. 

 

And it is not too early to think about next season's draft. :D

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1 hour ago, DarinB300 said:

IMO, if there is a player you want, you take him. I agree if you go Kelce, that someone in Rd 2 or Rd 3 before you will scoop up Ertz & Kittle which should help you get a RB/WR in rd 3-4. I think there are a number of drafts where Mahomes goes rd 2 (maybe even rd 1 & if so, they are going to target Kelce &/or T Hill, to have a nice combo, which makes sense to me. 

 

And it is not too early to think about next season's draft. :D

Thank you... 

This guy gets it...

 

The want for Kelce as a set and forget TE, is a big part in this... but the fact that it causes fallers from round 2 onwards means it could potentially land me a better team than i should be able to draft... 

Throw in the possibility of Mahomes going early causing a similar trend in the QB area...

 

 

Thank you.

 

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Few years back I played in a 8 teamer.  I had #2 overall, I think it was 2015. I took Gronk, I figured there's would be tons of depth at all the other positions so cornered the market some by taking Gronk, didn't win the league, but team was playoff bound, 

 

as as long as Kielce plays 16, it's a solid pick, you could be really bold and take ertz and Kelce, absolutely corner the market, in a 8 teamer, there will be p,entry of depth all thru the draft 

Edited by 1972Miamidolphins
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2 hours ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

Few years back I played in a 8 teamer.  I had #2 overall, I think it was 2015. I took Gronk, I figured there's would be tons of depth at all the other positions so cornered the market some by taking Gronk, didn't win the league, but team was playoff bound, 

 

as as long as Kielce plays 16, it's a solid pick, you could be really bold and take ertz and Kelce, absolutely corner the market, in a 8 teamer, there will be p,entry of depth all thru the draft 

Its definitely a bold strategy... to take both TEs off the board early to thin out the position for the rest of the league, and rely heavily on the best trade offer..... probly a little too rich for my blood, but definitely not dumb in my opinion.

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In an 8 team having a stud TE is a must, as there are plenty of QB/WR/RBs to go around. Go for it.

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On 1/27/2019 at 5:28 PM, Schmakky141 said:

Its definitely a bold strategy... to take both TEs off the board early to thin out the position for the rest of the league, and rely heavily on the best trade offer..... probly a little too rich for my blood, but definitely not dumb in my opinion.

 

Pretty dumb.

 

 

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