BostonCajun

Aaron Nola 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Damn Yankee said:

 

5 ERA & 1.5 WHIP.  Certainly doesn't look like one on paper today...

but it's a win! 😶

Only 3 runs, but 4 walks, but at Wrigley with the wind blowing out, I’ll take it 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Something is totally off with him this year. Maybe he is nursing an injury but hes definitely not the guy we saw last year (or the year before that)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, wahoos1 said:

Only 3 runs, but 4 walks, but at Wrigley with the wind blowing out, I’ll take it 

Had 3 innings of command, and then it evaporated again. Was all over and lacked any confidence.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This guy sucks this year. Keep expecting him to turn it around anddd nothing. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

guy looked way worse than his final line, which was mediocre at best in its own sense.

lost his command entirely after the 4th inning. literally looked like a scrub.

[...] 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[...] 

Even in a poor performance today, 2 more outs would have made it a QS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 
 
 
 
3
On 4/19/2019 at 9:07 AM, BostonCajun said:

 

I read the article as well and although it proves that his bad start is backed by underlying numbers the simpler way to put it is that he's struggling with his command and his control. He hasn't been able to throw his breaking balls for strikes which has allowed hitters to sit back on the fastball. As a result he's getting hit harder, his walks are up, his K% and SwStr% are down and everyone is panicking. @buzzkilloton even said he'd trade him straight up for Castillo, Marquez or Bieber. No man. No. Once Nola finds his command and can throw his breaking balls for strikes the rest of his numbers will normalize to somewhere between his 2017 and 2018 numbers. No way am I selling not only because I think hes fine but also because his value is at its lowest right now due to all the overeating. 

 

Sorry bro the sell high shipped has sailed. You wont be getting Castillo or Bieber for him. Marquez maybe but depends on the owner. Personally i rather have Marquez because you know hes going to be elite on the road.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, jhsong916 said:

guy looked way worse than his final line, which was mediocre at best in its own sense.

lost his command entirely after the 4th inning. literally looked like a scrub.

[...] 

 

It's like he pitched 2 different games. I didn't watch it but had MLB Gamecast open on a tab. He was spotting his FB right on the edges early on and cruised through 3. Then he was all over the place especially in the 4th and labored through 2.1. Very lucky to have given up just 3.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, papasmurf said:

 

It's like he pitched 2 different games. I didn't watch it but had MLB Gamecast open on a tab. He was spotting his FB right on the edges early on and cruised through 3. Then he was all over the place especially in the 4th and labored through 2.1. Very lucky to have given up just 3.

 

 

Exactly. Almost every start he looks like he finally found his groove in the early innings... and BAM! after the 4th or 5th inning he turns into a 4th or 5th starter...

I don't know what's wrong with him... And that's what makes this even more concerning. His peripherals suggest that he will come back to his own self (But they also suggest that he won't be the 'ace' we saw in 2018, so that's a bummer in its own sense), but if you look at the actual starts, he looks completely lost after a certain inning. It seems like his soul is possessed by Pivetta... literally.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not a whole lot of positives with him this year but his last two starts he's posted swinging strike rates closer to his career norm (13.2 and 11.8%) and he posted his two highest first pitch strike rates of the year. His zone contact rates are still ugly, although two starts ago it was 85% which is actually one of his lowest on the year which is...good in 2019 for him but not good at all, overall.

His four seamer is just getting annihilated this season, xba and slg of .288/.553 on the year. It actually did really well in this last start, but his sinker got crushed. I dunno, just trying to talk myself into him not being useless this year. His xfip is in the 3.7 range now, got that goin for us which is nice I guess....

God speed Nola soldiers, could be a long season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is becoming one of those situations where even if you buy low, you’re still kind of scared that he will perform worse than the guy you are offering as trade bait.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, jhsong916 said:

 

Exactly. Almost every start he looks like he finally found his groove in the early innings... and BAM! after the 4th or 5th inning he turns into a 4th or 5th starter...

I don't know what's wrong with him... And that's what makes this even more concerning. His peripherals suggest that he will come back to his own self (But they also suggest that he won't be the 'ace' we saw in 2018, so that's a bummer in its own sense), but if you look at the actual starts, he looks completely lost after a certain inning. It seems like his soul is possessed by Pivetta... literally.

 

I get your point, but to be honest, Nola has not pitched as well as even a fantasy 4th or 5th starter this year.  He's pitched at a waiver wire level so far .  His 4.53 ERA is bad and his 1.54 WHIP is truly atrocious.  The Phillies do obviously have an elite offense (as evidenced by Nola's zero losses despite his poor pitching) so Nola should post a decent amount of wins, but that doesn't make up for the bad ratios.

Nola's peripherals from 2016 to 2018 were remarkably consistent and suggested that while he would not be the fantasy 'ace' he was in 2018 (when he had an unsustainable low BABIP), he would still be a solid top 25 fantasy pitcher like in his 2017 season.

2016: 25.1 K%, 6.0 BB%, 0.81 HR/9, 3.08 FIP, 3.08 xFIP

2017: 26.6 K%, 7.1 BB%, 0.96 HR/9, 3.27 FIP, 3.38 xFIP

2018: 27.0 K%, 7.0 BB%, 0.72 HR/9, 3.01 FIP, 3.21 xFIP

Nola's peripherals this year are a dramatic decline from his 2016-2018 peripherals

2019: 25.9 K%, 9.8 BB%, 1.40 HR/9, 4.29 FIP, 3.78 xFIP

Edited by FootballFan101

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Did he have the same catcher from 2016-2018? 

His control is off, as evidenced by the big increase in BB%, and his homer rate has jumped sharply, indicating that when he misses his spot, he is putting the ball in a dangerous location. 

Is it just mechanics? Mental? I wish he could go on the IL so I can just stash him there until he figures it out. 

He's the worst kind of player to own right now. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Which Nola do we get today?  Strap in and hope for the best!

 

Ponderous....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

there's no doubt in my mind that he will shut the cards down today.  they are a dumpster fire.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Vintage Nola appearance today boys buckle up. 7 inning shut out. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty bad forecast tonight (we are going to the game) 😥. Hopefully he doesn't pitch 2 or 3 then not come back from a rain delay. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ryansm11 said:

Vintage Nola appearance today boys buckle up. 7 inning shut out. 

 

I like your enthusiasm but I would take the under.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Love his chances at a W today. The opposing pitcher is an extremely wild lefty making his MLB debut. Said lefty has a 6.35 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 9.8 H/9, 2.5 HR/9 and 4.3 BB/9 over the span of 9 appearances (7 starts) and a total of 39.2 IP in AAA this year. Debuting in a hitters park vs. a tough lineup won’t help his cause either.

 

Edit- Probably a moot point since the weather in Philly is awful right now with tornado warnings, etc. Zero chance at a doubleheader tomorrow too since Philly flys out to LA tomorrow night for a weekend series against the Dodgers.

Edited by Dislimb

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, papasmurf said:

 

I like your enthusiasm but I would take the under.

Hey I was pretty close! 1 run over 7. I’ll take it 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fun with numbers:

Last 30 days: 2.73 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 42 Ks (33 IP)

Last 14 days: 2.45 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 26 Ks (18.1 IP)

Last 7 days: 2.92 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 14 Ks (12.1 IP)


His K/9 (10.30) is currently a career high, meanwhile his BABIP allowed (.345) and HR/FB allowed (20.4%) are easily career worsts. 

If he can get the walks (3.90 BB/9 vs. a career 2.60 mark) in check, it seems like he will deliver pretty much what owners were hoping for when they drafted him. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He was pretty awesome last night. He was definitely getting squeezed last night by the ump which I believe played a role in all three of his walks:

 

993819374_chart(3).png.f00ef19ff8decdf1e1a335cc75c75779.png1018937489_chart(4).png.3e1798391cbf19437f50caaaf6e7fa23.png1688285009_chart(5).png.a0770f5eb70af222b001600bce96ded9.png

 

He had all of his pitches working last night. It was good to see the change up get some swings and misses. Overall, 14 swinging strikes and 36 CSW. Very encouraging start. 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, to_be_quite_frank said:

He was pretty awesome last night. He was definitely getting squeezed last night by the ump which I believe played a role in all three of his walks:

 

993819374_chart(3).png.f00ef19ff8decdf1e1a335cc75c75779.png1018937489_chart(4).png.3e1798391cbf19437f50caaaf6e7fa23.png1688285009_chart(5).png.a0770f5eb70af222b001600bce96ded9.png

 

He had all of his pitches working last night. It was good to see the change up get some swings and misses. Overall, 14 swinging strikes and 36 CSW. Very encouraging start. 

 

 

Wow, that's some horrible umping.  Those "balls" are essentially fully in the strike zone.  I was expecting maybe something along the line where it could go either way but those are all pretty iron-clad strikes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, cizastro said:

 

Wow, that's some horrible umping.  Those "balls" are essentially fully in the strike zone.  I was expecting maybe something along the line where it could go either way but those are all pretty iron-clad strikes.

 

They all happened in the first few innings and he was able to put it past him and continue to execute. The Goldschmidt AB was maddening. Back to back perfect change ups in the bottom of the zone. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, to_be_quite_frank said:

 

They all happened in the first few innings and he was able to put it past him and continue to execute. The Goldschmidt AB was maddening. Back to back perfect change ups in the bottom of the zone. 

 

And he opened the next AB with a pitch in the same location for a called strike. Also allowed one earned run in five of his last seven. I think he's getting back on track. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.