BostonCajun

Aaron Nola 2019 Outlook

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22 hours ago, mjb03003 said:

Fun with numbers:

Last 30 days: 2.73 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 42 Ks (33 IP)

Last 14 days: 2.45 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 26 Ks (18.1 IP)

Last 7 days: 2.92 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 14 Ks (12.1 IP)


His K/9 (10.30) is currently a career high, meanwhile his BABIP allowed (.345) and HR/FB allowed (20.4%) are easily career worsts. 

If he can get the walks (3.90 BB/9 vs. a career 2.60 mark) in check, it seems like he will deliver pretty much what owners were hoping for when they drafted him. 

 

Nola looked good yesterday against the Cards and he's certainly pitched better recently, but he's still currently only the 79th ranked SP so far this year.  He'd have to pitch like Pedro Martinez circa 1999 the rest of the year to make up for his horrific April and return even value for his owners compared to his ADP (top 10 among SP).

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Nola looked good yesterday against the Cards and he's certainly pitched better recently, but he's still currently only the 79th ranked SP so far this year.  He'd have to pitch like Pedro Martinez circa 1999 the rest of the year to make up for his horrific April and return even value for his owners compared to his ADP (top 10 among SP).

 

There are countless players who don't end up where they are drafted every year, including top 10 guys. It's really not noteworthy but you keep going repeating the same thing over and over. You are full of solid analysis and I am really learning new things reading your stuff.

Edited by roadawg
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1 hour ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Nola looked good yesterday against the Cards and he's certainly pitched better recently, but he's still currently only the 79th ranked SP so far this year.  He'd have to pitch like Pedro Martinez circa 1999 the rest of the year to make up for his horrific April and return even value for his owners compared to his ADP (top 10 among SP).

 

Add "moving forward" to the end of my post, because that's really what I care about. I used the last stats from the last 30, 14, and 7 days to illustrate that Nola has already turned a corner and started pitching pretty close to what owners were expecting on draft day. There's really no point in focusing on his season long rank and wringing your hands about where he stacks up against other pitchers who didn't have a rough April. What's done is done. We've got 4 months (2/3 of the season) left, and Nola could definitley be that ace he was drafted to be the rest of the way. 

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1 hour ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Nola looked good yesterday against the Cards and he's certainly pitched better recently, but he's still currently only the 79th ranked SP so far this year.  He'd have to pitch like Pedro Martinez circa 1999 the rest of the year to make up for his horrific April and return even value for his owners compared to his ADP (top 10 among SP).

 

Rating depends on format, for example where I own him he's 54th, five basic categories plus holds, K/9, and QS for pitchers. In the same league he's also 16th over the last 30, and fifth over the last fifteen (which admittedly doesn't mean much for SP, but still). Point is he seems to be turning the corner. Keep in mind it's also entirely possible to have one bad month and still finish close to what was expected. Nola's April saw him finish with a 5.68 ERA. His May ERA was 2.73. He's brought his season ERA down by 150 points since the end of April (5.68 at end of April to 4.18 now). If his next four months are closer to May than to April, he can still finish with good numbers, maybe not exactly third/fourth round value, but close enough that anyone who drafted him won't have any complaints, because most fantasy baseball players know that a lot of the time early round picks don't return exact even value. As long as the guys you drafted early don't turn into complete pumpkins (JRam) and a few of the guys you drafted late do better than expected (Bell) you did fine at the draft. 

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Posted (edited)

2018 is a fart in the wind.  Just get me .25 cents on the dollar from draft value and I’ll be happy at this point.  He isn’t sniffing anything remotely close to last year.  That was an aberration.  

Edited by Cmilne23
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[Comments removed.  There's more than enough to complain about on the topic of Aaron Nola's 2019 fantasy outlook -- we don't need general complaining about your draft / team.  Take that stuff here.]

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6 minutes ago, jackg1162 said:

This guy has been a real piece of s--- this year.

I just sent my buddy, a fellow Phillies fan, a text that said Nola is a real POS. Soooooooo I agree fully with this assessment.

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Since I don't own any shares in Nola this year I am rather enjoying his 2019 season so far.  Next Year he be cheaper to draft cause I won't be bidding on him Vs anyone that has him this year. Maybe I can get him for a Buck or two.

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Looking like an ace!

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Anyone who explains why someone won’t be an ace in advance of the season in the player thread deserves some acclaim.

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The scariest part is that his peripherals actually support his awful surface stats.

 

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On 5/31/2019 at 9:48 AM, phillyphan21 said:

 

Rating depends on format, for example where I own him he's 54th, five basic categories plus holds, K/9, and QS for pitchers. In the same league he's also 16th over the last 30, and fifth over the last fifteen (which admittedly doesn't mean much for SP, but still). Point is he seems to be turning the corner. Keep in mind it's also entirely possible to have one bad month and still finish close to what was expected. Nola's April saw him finish with a 5.68 ERA. His May ERA was 2.73. He's brought his season ERA down by 150 points since the end of April (5.68 at end of April to 4.18 now). If his next four months are closer to May than to April, he can still finish with good numbers, maybe not exactly third/fourth round value, but close enough that anyone who drafted him won't have any complaints, because most fantasy baseball players know that a lot of the time early round picks don't return exact even value. As long as the guys you drafted early don't turn into complete pumpkins (JRam) and a few of the guys you drafted late do better than expected (Bell) you did fine at the draft. 

Yes, Nola was better in May than in April, but he still posted a brutal 1.39 WHIP in May.  Something is seriously wrong with this guy.  We're 13 starts into the season now, and Nola has performed at a waiver wire level so far this year.  Look, I know we disagreed prior to the season about your claim that Nola was a bonafide fantasy ace, but, still, Nola's consistent peripherals from 2016 to 2018, while not elite, were top 20-25 caliber.  This year, Nola's peripherals have taken a huge step backwards and almost fully support his brutal 4.63 ERA (4.39 FIP) and his 1.53 WHIP is flat-out atrocious.  I expected Nola to regress all the way back to his 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP numbers from 2017, but I never expected Nola would be this bad where honestly fantasy owners so far would have been better off not having a 3rd round pick than drafting Nola.

It seems like every time Nola has a good start and everyone on here declares that Nola is back and is going to perform like an ace rest of the season, Nola always follows up that good start with a stinker.  Honestly even in most of Nola's "good" starts this year, he's walked too many guys.  

It's very rare for any pitcher to have a WHIP over 1.50, and I can't recall ever seeing a 3rd round pitcher do it.  (I'm not sure they were quite top 3 rounds, but Tim Lincecum in 2012 and Matt Harvey in 2016 come to mind as early round picks that posted awful ratios, but even they didn't have WHIPs over 1.50.)  Nola is looking like a bust of historic proportions this year.

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)

It’s gotta be a mental issue with him. Did he get paid recently? Just looked and yes he did. Maybe now that he has some $ he isn’t approaching the game the same way he used to. He’s fat and happy. 

Edited by Hatfieldodger

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I mean honestly guys... I hate to say this... looking like Yu Darvish without the top notch velocity out there. 

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My brain cannot comprehend that this guy is un-startable. I find it just as perplexing as JoRam, honestly.

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I hate to say it, but the warning signs for regression were there.

 

What I am surprised about is his lack of control and command. Now that he's lost that aspect of his game, his room for error has diminished. His fastball command just has not been there the entire year. He cant throw that front door 2-seam to lefties, he can't locate his four seam to get ahead in counts.

 

His changeup was terrible yesterday. Countless balls in the dirt nearly hitting the plate. 

 

At this point the only consistent pitch he has is his curveball

 

Just gotta hope he finds his control somehow. 

 

Can't trade him low, just gotta hold and hope

 

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I’m so ******** sick of this guy. I fell asleep early and missed the 6th inning. Lovely stat line by this bum yet again. 

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No one expected an ERA in the 2's again, but a 4.63 ERA, 1.53 (!!) WHIP, and 31 BB in 70 IP? That's a cliff-dive and well beyond normal regression.

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razall today said this..

Quote

Aaron Nola – 5 1/3 IP, 6 ER, ERA at 4.63.  Not sure how familiar you are with Nola’s game, but it’s usually solid 9-ish Ks and great command.  So far this year, he’s getting more Ks (fractionally), but his command just isn’t there.  Everything else looks relatively normal, now that small samples have normalized.  My guess is it’s mechanics thing and he’ll right the ship. So, while I didn’t love him coming into this year, I’m in the Buy Low camp.

 

pitcherlist..

Quote

Aaron Nola5.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Awwwww this was supposed to be the game! The one where a strikeout-heavy lineup succumbs to the will that is Nola and his finally-commanded fastball! YOU WERE THE CHOSEN ONE! Just 7 whiffs overall – six on curveballs – and 26/93 CSW is meh. This is the zone plot of his fastballs and you can see that this isn’t the Nola we know and love. It’s sad, really. I think he will get there this year, but until this is zone heavy and on the edges, we’re not going to be living every day like it’s Nola day

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16149&position=P

on the season 10.16 K/9, career high. but the 3.99 B/9 is also career high, and that needs to be better.

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2 hours ago, Hatfieldodger said:

It’s gotta be a mental issue with him. Did he get paid recently? Just looked and yes he did. Maybe now that he has some $ he isn’t approaching the game the same way he used to. He’s fat and happy. 

I would think mental issues are the least of his problem. (Well aside from the embarrassment of getting destroyed every night.) If there's an actual physical problem rather than just not being very good, an injury or mechanical issue seems way more likely than anything going on in his head

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, jackg1162 said:

This guy is basically Jose Quintana from last year.  Only drafted 3 rounds earlier.

 

Quintana posted a 4.03 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP last year.  Not good numbers obviously and probably not numbers worth owning in most leagues, but still a heck of a lot better than Nola's numbers this year.

Edited by FootballFan101

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