BostonCajun

Aaron Nola 2019 Outlook

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With the ASB coming up the Phillies might want to seriously consider a trip to the Inept List to try and get him straightened out in the hopes of a second half bounce back. He’s the Jose Ramirez of pitchers this year in that a drop off this steep is simply inexplicable.

Also, I thought that article above about ace form was from The Onion.

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Bought low on him and regretting it. The signs were there. His SIERA was over a point above his ERA. Still though would not sell now. He had looked better (still not good but better) before today and Atlanta has a good lineup

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Disgusting. Walk, HBP, blast.

His middle name is loser.

Dunno where the FB command went. I am sure I ain't the only one to wonder if it's a hidden injury, but we're in mid June, if there's something, you'd think they woulda found it by now.

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, quietj said:

 

Can’t get much worse for us owners that own this bust. I just can’t comprehend the drastic difference between Nola last year and this year. How does a young 26 year old that’s supposed to be in his prime just fall off a cliff this this?

 

Well, he did benefit from extraordinary BABIP luck last year that made him look a lot better than he was actually was.  Still, Nola was obviously still a solid pitcher the last few years.  Reminds me a lot of Tim Lincecum the way Nola fell apart at such young age.

Edited by FootballFan101
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1 hour ago, TribeFoo said:

With the ASB coming up the Phillies might want to seriously consider a trip to the Inept List to try and get him straightened out in the hopes of a second half bounce back. He’s the Jose Ramirez of pitchers this year in that a drop off this steep is simply inexplicable.

Also, I thought that article above about ace form was from The Onion.

 

J-Ram vs Nola is an interesting comparison.  Personally, I don't love J-Ram, but I see much more chance of him bouncing back the 2nd half of the year than Nola.  At least J-Ram is still running a ton and hitters usually don't lose it as suddenly as pitchers do.

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3 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

J-Ram vs Nola is an interesting comparison.  Personally, I don't love J-Ram, but I see much more chance of him bouncing back the 2nd half of the year than Nola.  At least J-Ram is still running a ton and hitters usually don't lose it as suddenly as pitchers do.

 

If you're going to give credit to JoRam for running, you can at least give Nola credit for K'ing a good amount of guys.

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50 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

If you're going to give credit to JoRam for running, you can at least give Nola credit for K'ing a good amount of guys.

 

J-Ram is 3rd in the majors in SB.  Nola is 23rd in the majors in strikeouts.   Even last year, Nola only averaged a little over 9 Ks per 9 IP, which is good but nothing amazing for this day and age where hitters swing for the fences and strike out so much.

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2018 was a fluke. absolutely.

 

didn't have the elite stuff at any point of his career.

Nola - control = SP #2~3 at best.

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pirates might want to make a move for this guy. I am sure trading Josh Bell and Vazquez would be a good "pirate" move.

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9 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

J-Ram is 3rd in the majors in SB.  Nola is 23rd in the majors in strikeouts.   Even last year, Nola only averaged a little over 9 Ks per 9 IP, which is good but nothing amazing for this day and age where hitters swing for the fences and strike out so much.

 

You can give him credit for K's and still think he's a bust. He is a bust at this point, last night was the final straw for me. But he is striking out 10.10 per nine. What's frustrating isn't that he's been flat out awful; the reason I've been fairly optimistic on him until now has been that he has shown flashes of old Nola. He has had games where he had control over everything and was fooling hitters, only to blow up in the fifth or sixth or seventh. And I think mentally it's gotten to him. Every time it starts to look like he's found his way back he reverts. He'll pitch well for a few innings then he just loses it. I honestly don't even have an explanation at this point other than potentially hiding an injury or just not being mentally there. I'm annoyed as a fantasy owner and ******** pissed as a Phillies fan.

He's crap at this point and the only reason he's not this year's biggest bust is the existence of JoRam's .202/.298/.302 line.

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11 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

J-Ram is 3rd in the majors in SB.  Nola is 23rd in the majors in strikeouts.   Even last year, Nola only averaged a little over 9 Ks per 9 IP, which is good but nothing amazing for this day and age where hitters swing for the fences and strike out so much.

 

That's a good point about the scarcity of SBs.  Nola's also 6-1 though.

 

If we want to technical, Nola is helping you in 2 of the standard cats (Ws & Ks), or at least not hurting you, and killing you in ERA & WHIP.  Whereas Ramirez is elite in SBs and is killing you in 4 other cats.

 

They're both busts, but I'd rather have Nola thus far.

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12 hours ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

You can give him credit for K's and still think he's a bust. He is a bust at this point, last night was the final straw for me. But he is striking out 10.10 per nine. What's frustrating isn't that he's been flat out awful; the reason I've been fairly optimistic on him until now has been that he has shown flashes of old Nola. He has had games where he had control over everything and was fooling hitters, only to blow up in the fifth or sixth or seventh. And I think mentally it's gotten to him. Every time it starts to look like he's found his way back he reverts. He'll pitch well for a few innings then he just loses it. I honestly don't even have an explanation at this point other than potentially hiding an injury or just not being mentally there. I'm annoyed as a fantasy owner and ******** pissed as a Phillies fan.

He's crap at this point and the only reason he's not this year's biggest bust is the existence of JoRam's .202/.298/.302 line.

 

Well, even bad pitchers have games or stretches where they look good, don't they?  I mean Ivan Nova, who has probably been the worst pitcher in the MLB this year, had a great game vs Houston earlier this game and beat Gerrit Cole.  We're 15 starts into the year, and Nola has the 4th worst WHIP among all pitchers in baseball with enough innings to qualify.  There's not really any way to put a positive spin on things at this point.  Yes, maybe, he hasn't sucked quite as bad since April 15th as he did his first 4 starts, but he's still been bad since then.  I did think that there was a time at the end of May where it looked like Nola might be finally coming out of it.  I pretty much lost all hope for Nola after that disaster in San Diego in what should have been a very favorable matchup.

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Well, even bad pitchers have games or stretches where they look good, don't they?  I mean Ivan Nova, who has probably been the worst pitcher in the MLB this year, had a great game vs Houston earlier this game and beat Gerrit Cole.  We're 15 starts into the year, and Nola has the 4th worst WHIP among all pitchers in baseball with enough innings to qualify.  There's not really any way to put a positive spin on things at this point.  Yes, maybe, he hasn't sucked quite as bad since April 15th as he did his first 4 starts, but he's still been bad since then.  I did think that there was a time at the end of May where it looked like Nola might be finally coming out of it.  I pretty much lost all hope for Nola after that disaster in San Diego in what should have been a very favorable matchup.

 

You're missing my point. I'm acknowledging that this is very likely a lost season at this point. What makes it frustrating is that every game it seems like he's back on track and then he just loses it. Seriously actually watch one of his starts. The Cincy game is an example of this, he was making first pitch strikes, had command over his FB, and bite to the curve. Then the sixth inning came and he just didn't. And in a lot of games he loses it before that point. 

It would almost be better if he did look flat out awful all the time, instead he frustrates by looking fine early on and then just losing it at what I can only surmise is the mental level. 

To me this is reminiscent of Greinke's 2010, where he followed up a breakout with a 4.17 ERA. Greinke was trying to do too much and seemed to let past success get in his head, I think it's the same with Nola. 

And if you still think I'm being "too positive" I will leave you with this. If you can show positivity in regards to JoRam, anyone should be able to show positivity in anyone, since, you know, JoRam is arguably the biggest bust in fantasy baseball history. 

Edited by phillyphan21
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Posted (edited)
On 6/17/2019 at 9:32 AM, phillyphan21 said:

 

You're missing my point. I'm acknowledging that this is very likely a lost season at this point. What makes it frustrating is that every game it seems like he's back on track and then he just loses it. Seriously actually watch one of his starts. The Cincy game is an example of this, he was making first pitch strikes, had command over his FB, and bite to the curve. Then the sixth inning came and he just didn't. And in a lot of games he loses it before that point. 

It would almost be better if he did look flat out awful all the time, instead he frustrates by looking fine early on and then just losing it at what I can only surmise is the mental level. 

To me this is reminiscent of Greinke's 2010, where he followed up a breakout with a 4.17 ERA. Greinke was trying to do too much and seemed to let past success get in his head, I think it's the same with Nola. 

And if you still think I'm being "too positive" I will leave you with this. If you can show positivity in regards to JoRam, anyone should be able to show positivity in anyone, since, you know, JoRam is arguably the biggest bust in fantasy baseball history. 

 

Well, in your June 15th post before Nola's start against the Braves, you did say that you thought Nola "should still be solid enough ROS that his owners shouldn't have too many complaints outside of the walks."  So that is why I felt you were being too positive.  Now you are saying that it's very likely a lost season for Nola.  I guess Nola's disaster against the Braves was the straw that broke the camel's back, in terms of your confidence in him?

Personally, the start against the Padres was the one where I lost all hope for Nola after.  It seemed like Nola was making some strides in his last few starts in May (although he was still walking too many guys and posting a poor WHIP), but then he went out and got totally demolished against a bottom 10 offense in a pitcher's park.  On the other hand, the Braves have in my opinion the best offense in the NL, so Nola getting shelled by them didn't really surprise me at all.  

If you want some good news, the Phillies' back-to-back rainouts mean that instead of facing the Nationals in Washington where he got absolutely destroyed earlier this season (even though Trea Turner was injured at the time), Nola gets to face the Marlins at home on Friday.  If Nola can't pitch well against the Marlins joke of a lineup, I think whether to drop him has to at least become a valid debate?

Edited by FootballFan101

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Posted (edited)

I got rid of him. in points leagues you cannot have SPs giving you minus points numerous times. in head to head its different. right now he is long term bench. maybe next year. 

Edited by mlb2019

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His start was pushed back a day.  Instead of Washington, he gets the Marlins.  Good, since he was a firm sit for me.  I'll probably roll him out tomorrow though.

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I know it was the Marlins but I’m surprised to not see a single post about his last start. 8 innings of two run ball while striking out 10 and walking just one is awesome no matter who you’re facing. 82 of his 107 pitches were thrown for strikes and he also had 18 swings and misses. He gets the Mets on Thursday at home. 

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35 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

I know it was the Marlins but I’m surprised to not see a single post about his last start. 8 innings of two run ball while striking out 10 and walking just one is awesome no matter who you’re facing. 82 of his 107 pitches were thrown for strikes and he also had 18 swings and misses. He gets the Mets on Thursday at home. 

bench

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3 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

I know it was the Marlins but I’m surprised to not see a single post about his last start. 8 innings of two run ball while striking out 10 and walking just one is awesome no matter who you’re facing. 82 of his 107 pitches were thrown for strikes and he also had 18 swings and misses. He gets the Mets on Thursday at home. 

Most teams who invested highly in him are probably on the football forum preparing for nfl season.  Monster bust. 

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Let anyone start 30 times vs. MIA and ERA will be below 3.50.

Maybe he finishes the year with an ERA of like 2. That will salvage the year, otherwise he's already done bad enough to sink alot of teams. Imagine if you had Nola, Wheeler, and Carrasco (like me).

 

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Did anyone who watched these two outings notice anything different or these two great starts because of the teams he faced?

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4 hours ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

Did anyone who watched these two outings notice anything different or these two great starts because of the teams he faced?

He got his rind back. All NOLA needs is that hot lather and he's butter.

 

Better hop on this gravy train boyos, because this thing has biscuit wheels.... 

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6 hours ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

Did anyone who watched these two outings notice anything different or these two great starts because of the teams he faced?

Today was all about the curve, had complete control of it in a way that hasn't existed this year.

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15 hours ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

Did anyone who watched these two outings notice anything different or these two great starts because of the teams he faced?

 

He finally had command of his curve ball and stopped walking so many guys.  Plus facing the Marlins and Mets obviously helps.  Before we say Nola is "back", let's see how he does vs the Bravos next week.  

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