BostonCajun

Aaron Nola 2019 Outlook

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On 6/24/2019 at 10:03 AM, papasmurf said:

Let anyone start 30 times vs. MIA and ERA will be below 3.50.

Maybe he finishes the year with an ERA of like 2. That will salvage the year, otherwise he's already done bad enough to sink alot of teams. Imagine if you had Nola, Wheeler, and Carrasco (like me).

 

 

Me too... and I bet we were both thinking what a monster trio heading into the season. lol

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The Met lineup he faced yesterday was not bad. Cano was out. McNeil, Alonso, Conforto, Dom Smith, Wilson Ramos are all tough hitters. Cautiously hopeful for the second half. 

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Just keep starting him every time and stop trying to time the good/bad starts. 

He's had two, maybe three really crappy starts since April. He's mixed in a few more mediocre starts than we were all expecting/hoping for, but he's clearly still got the "stuff" to dominate any and every time out. There's only maybe a dozen starters I'd rather have moving forward. 

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Posted (edited)

[...]  If he can keep those BB's down I think we may see a very good 2nd half. 

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story
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Now the time to try and buy low on this guy? 

 

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29 minutes ago, Jrick45 said:

Now the time to try and buy low on this guy? 

 

 

Eh, speaking as a Nola owner, any owner who has held this long is unlikely to be selling low. Any owner who traded for him this year is even more unlikely to sell low. I had someone in my league ask about him this week, and I told him he wouldn’t be willing to pay what it would cost. 

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43 minutes ago, Jrick45 said:

Now the time to try and buy low on this guy? 

 

Time to buy is always after a bad start.  Now that he dominated he probably gave owners hope.  I always pounce when someone gets shelled.  Best chance to catch someone in midst of emotions. 

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He and Pivetta are swapping spots in the rotation making Nola a two start pitcher this week. He was supposed to go Wednesday at Atlanta but now he's Tuesday at Atlanta and Sunday at the Mets. 

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On 6/24/2019 at 10:03 AM, papasmurf said:

Let anyone start 30 times vs. MIA and ERA will be below 3.50.

Maybe he finishes the year with an ERA of like 2. That will salvage the year, otherwise he's already done bad enough to sink alot of teams. Imagine if you had Nola, Wheeler, and Carrasco (like me).

 

 

I realize it's probably too late for most owners, especially in roto leagues, but Nola has finally come around these last three starts and regained his 2017-2018 form. 

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Bought low ( kinda ) and couldn't be happier.  His last 3 games have been as dominant as he was last year.  This current start against one of the best offenses in baseball is definitely proof that his Ace status is BACK BABY!!!  His mound presence is as confident as ever, and he has total command of his arsenal.  Run support won't be an issue, whatsoever, so we could be looking at a top 15 SP ROS.

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Just now, Macgregor said:

Well...

He's allowed one run over twenty-three innings these past three games, and tonight might be the only win he gets to show for it.

QS > W  

 

That's a fact, for sure.  I'm stating the obvious, I guess, in that the Phillies are one of the top 10 offenses when they're healthy, and not slumping.  Segura is back to healthy, and Harper had his early season struggles.  Hoskins should be even better in the 2nd half, and even JT's stats should see an increase if you look at his career production.  They might make a move for another big bat for a playoff push, too.  I'd like to see them get Pillar from the Giants.

 

 Nola is in a great position to rack up wins with an ERA under 3.4.

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@Macgregor Yes, we can most definitely agree that we don't have to be concerned when Nola takes the bump anymore (fingers crossed, lol). 

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Coulda used this from Day 1. Dunno how many owners still has a shot after the Nola poop in the first half. But anyway, at least he ain't hurt. Whatever was the problem he's over it.

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9 hours ago, papasmurf said:

Coulda used this from Day 1. Dunno how many owners still has a shot after the Nola poop in the first half. But anyway, at least he ain't hurt. Whatever was the problem he's over it.

 

I really don't see how one pitcher having an underwhelming (but not disastrous) first half could spoil your whole season. Pitchers are inherently risky investments and somewhat volatile week to week and month to month. Nola has his season ERA under 4.00 and is just outside the top 15 in Ks on the season. Those who drafted Kluber, Snell, Carrasco, Syndergaard, Flaherty, Taillon, Paxton, Clevinger, etc... are either in the same boat or worse off than those who took Nola. And I know their ADPs were not identical but I think you see the point - lots of owners are dealing with disappointing "stud" SPs, and this happens every year. The key is and always will be to get elite or near-elite production from late round picks and waiver pickups to compensate for whichever "stud" SP is not getting it done. 

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I am not saying Nola alone sunk anyone's team. But I would imagine some teams that have Nola may also have other non-performing SPs (like I did). That's why I said how many. Obviously not every team that has Nola is done.

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On 7/3/2019 at 8:58 AM, mjb03003 said:

 

I really don't see how one pitcher having an underwhelming (but not disastrous) first half could spoil your whole season. Pitchers are inherently risky investments and somewhat volatile week to week and month to month. Nola has his season ERA under 4.00 and is just outside the top 15 in Ks on the season. Those who drafted Kluber, Snell, Carrasco, Syndergaard, Flaherty, Taillon, Paxton, Clevinger, etc... are either in the same boat or worse off than those who took Nola. And I know their ADPs were not identical but I think you see the point - lots of owners are dealing with disappointing "stud" SPs, and this happens every year. The key is and always will be to get elite or near-elite production from late round picks and waiver pickups to compensate for whichever "stud" SP is not getting it done. 

 

I get what you are saying, but the difference between Nola and someone like Verlander (who had a similar ADP) has been astronomical so far this year.  That easily cancels the advantage of one late-round bargain, for example Ryu.

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5 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

I get what you are saying, but the difference between Nola and someone like Verlander (who had a similar ADP) has been astronomical so far this year.  That easily cancels the advantage of one late-round bargain, for example Ryu.

 

I get that as well, but you could play that game with literally any position. Chose Hoskins over Bellinger to be your 1B? Dang. Hoskins hasn't sunk your team, but his .265 average and 19 homers sure don't match up to Bellinger's .344 and 30. Chose Realmuto over Sanchez to be your C? Shoot. Realmuto has 50 Runs, 10 HR, 39 RBI, and a .268 average... good enough for a starting fantasy C, but Sanchez has 37 Runs, 24 HR, 57 RBI, and a .255 average.

 

You can't nail every pick...

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28 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

I get that as well, but you could play that game with literally any position. Chose Hoskins over Bellinger to be your 1B? Dang. Hoskins hasn't sunk your team, but his .265 average and 19 homers sure don't match up to Bellinger's .344 and 30. Chose Realmuto over Sanchez to be your C? Shoot. Realmuto has 50 Runs, 10 HR, 39 RBI, and a .268 average... good enough for a starting fantasy C, but Sanchez has 37 Runs, 24 HR, 57 RBI, and a .255 average.

 

You can't nail every pick...

 

Well, Nola has been a lot worse relative to his ADP than Realmuto or Hoskins have been relative to theirs.  Is it possible to draft Nola and still win your league?  Sure, it's possible if you hit on enough late-round picks and free agent pickups, and no one in your league runs away with it.  But having an early round pick like Nola perform like a late round pick is a big hole to overcome and can easily be the difference between winning and not winning your league in competitive leagues.

I guess this statement is moreso true for roto leagues rather than H2H leagues (where the last few weeks of the season mean much more than the rest of the season).  Nola looks like he has finally turned a corner these past 3 starts and I think he'll pitch fine in the 2nd half, but he performed like utter garbage for the first 2 1/2 months and did a lot of harm for fantasy owners in that span. 

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Well, Nola has been a lot worse relative to his ADP than Realmuto or Hoskins have been relative to theirs.  Is it possible to draft Nola and still win your league?  Sure, it's possible if you hit on enough late-round picks and free agent pickups, and no one in your league runs away with it.  But having an early round pick like Nola perform like a late round pick is a big hole to overcome and can easily be the difference between winning and not winning your league in competitive leagues.

I guess this statement is moreso true for roto leagues rather than H2H leagues (where the last few weeks of the season mean much more than the rest of the season).  Nola looks like he has finally turned a corner these past 3 starts and I think he'll pitch fine in the 2nd half, but he performed like utter garbage for the first 2 1/2 months and did a lot of harm for fantasy owners in that span. 

 

Nola, Hoskins, and Realmuto were all drafted within about 20 picks of one another based on the ADP data I'm looking at. They were all early round picks and they've all been relative disappointments. I just don't see how any of them buries your team, unless you swung and missed on SEVERAL other picks as well. The fact that you chose Verlander as the guy you could have taken instead of Nola is very convenient, as he's having a truly dominant season. You could have just as easily taken Snell or Kluber (or Syndergaard, or Carrasco...) instead of Nola and you'd be even worse off.

Nola has turned a corner and while he didn't live up to ADP for the first month or two, he's been very good lately and looks like he could very well justify his ADP by the time it's all said and done. I don't understand all of the hand-wringing over Nola...the dreadful April stats are way back in the rear view mirror. 

Edited by mjb03003
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17 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

he's been very good lately and looks like he could very well justify his ADP by the time it's all said and done

 

He has been very good lately, but he was going around the 2-3 turn in mixed league drafts, with a 25 ADP, or SP #6.  He's right now the #44 overall *starting pitcher* (not player) on the ESPN player rater, including his excellent recent work.  Maybe you and I didn't use that high a pick to get him, but a lot of people did.  Of the arms drafted ahead of him, none are worse on the season so far except for Kluber.

I can see him climbing into the back end of the top 10 if he holds on to the gains he's made in recent weeks, but he's got a *lot* of debt to work off to get anywhere close to his ADP.

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26 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

He has been very good lately, but he was going around the 2-3 turn in mixed league drafts, with a 25 ADP, or SP #6.  He's right now the #44 overall *starting pitcher* (not player) on the ESPN player rater, including his excellent recent work.  Maybe you and I didn't use that high a pick to get him, but a lot of people did.  Of the arms drafted ahead of him, none are worse on the season so far except for Kluber.

I can see him climbing into the back end of the top 10 if he holds on to the gains he's made in recent weeks, but he's got a *lot* of debt to work off to get anywhere close to his ADP.

 

On Yahoo, Snell was ranked higher and is worse. Right behind Nola in the preseason Yahoo rankings were Carrasco and Thor, and both are worse. 

But yeah, he’s got a lot of climbing to do, and I doubt he’s a top 10 SP by year’s end. Frankly, I like Nola’s chances of approaching that realm as I do guys like Kluber, Snell, Carrasco, and Thor. 

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1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

Of the arms drafted ahead of him, none are worse on the season so far except for Kluber

And coincidentally, Nola owners would've been a lot better off if he was right next to Kluber on the shelf for the first 2.5 months 

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2 hours ago, cs3 said:

And coincidentally, Nola owners would've been a lot better off if he was right next to Kluber on the shelf for the first 2.5 months 

Why?  His last three outings have been really good.  It is now that you want him, not his earlier self.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, mjb03003 said:

 

Nola, Hoskins, and Realmuto were all drafted within about 20 picks of one another based on the ADP data I'm looking at. They were all early round picks and they've all been relative disappointments. I just don't see how any of them buries your team, unless you swung and missed on SEVERAL other picks as well. The fact that you chose Verlander as the guy you could have taken instead of Nola is very convenient, as he's having a truly dominant season. You could have just as easily taken Snell or Kluber (or Syndergaard, or Carrasco...) instead of Nola and you'd be even worse off.

Nola has turned a corner and while he didn't live up to ADP for the first month or two, he's been very good lately and looks like he could very well justify his ADP by the time it's all said and done. I don't understand all of the hand-wringing over Nola...the dreadful April stats are way back in the rear view mirror. 

 

Nola: ADP 31.6, current rank 200

Hoskins: ADP 38.7, current rank 96

Realmuto: ADP 53.2, current rank 155

I agree that Realmuto and Hoskins have been disappointments, but Nola has been by far the most damaging pick among the 3.

Maybe Verlander wasn't the best comparison because he's actually well exceeded his ADP, not just lived up to his ADP.  Let's compare Nola to someone like Gerrit Cole who has produced right around his ADP and had virtually the same ADP as Nola.

Nola: 7 wins, 3.89 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 118 K in 104 IP

Cole: 8 wins, 3.28 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 159 K in 109 IP

That's a huge difference between the two, especially considering that in standard innings-capped leagues, one starter accounts for essentially 15% of your team's total innings.  That type of difference almost completely offsets the advantage of a late-round bargain like Ryu. 

 

Edited by FootballFan101

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