BostonCajun

Aaron Nola 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Nola: ADP 31.6, current rank 200

Hoskins: ADP 38.7, current rank 96

Realmuto: ADP 53.2, current rank 155

I agree that Realmuto and Hoskins have been disappointments, but Nola has been by far the most damaging pick among the 3.

Maybe Verlander wasn't the best comparison because he's actually well exceeded his ADP, not just lived up to his ADP.  Let's compare Nola to someone like Gerrit Cole who has produced right around his ADP and had virtually the same ADP as Nola.

Nola: 7 wins, 3.89 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 118 K in 104 IP

Cole: 8 wins, 3.28 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 159 K in 109 IP

That's a huge difference between the two, especially considering that in standard innings-capped leagues, one starter accounts for essentially 15% of your team's total innings.  That type of difference almost completely offsets the advantage of a late-round bargain like Ryu. 

 

 

I think you're still cherrypicking, whether you use JV or Cole to make your point. I'm not even disagreeing that you could have made a better selection at that ADP than Aaron Nola, because that's pretty obvious. But there were a lot of pitchers in roughly the same ADP range who have been as bad or worse than Nola, so several of your leaguemates are in the same boat and trying to make up for their aces not pitching like aces all season. It happens. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Reading this thread, it's a miracle the Phillies have won a game.

  • Haha 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Why?  His last three outings have been really good.  It is now that you want him, not his earlier self.

Lol I know, bust out your calendar and see when the first 2.5 months ended.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, mjb03003 said:

 

I think you're still cherrypicking, whether you use JV or Cole to make your point. I'm not even disagreeing that you could have made a better selection at that ADP than Aaron Nola, because that's pretty obvious. But there were a lot of pitchers in roughly the same ADP range who have been as bad or worse than Nola, so several of your leaguemates are in the same boat and trying to make up for their aces not pitching like aces all season. It happens. 

 

 

I agree with you that there a bunch of pitchers with similar ADPs as Nola's that have been big disappointments too. Looking at the early-round pitchers who have met expectations vs. the pitchers who have not, I think the moral of the story is, if you are going to reach for a pitcher in the first few rounds instead of taking a stud hitter, take one that has a very high K rate.  Look, pitchers are always going to be more of a risk than hitters because of injury, but dominant strikeout pitchers tend to be more reliable and consistent from year-to-year.  BABIP can fluctuate wildly from year-to-year (just look at Nola's 2016, 2017, 2018 BABIP), but if a pitcher is a dominant strikeout pitcher, that minimizes that risk.  Scherzer, Verlander, and Cole who had the three highest K rates last year have all met expectations this year.  (I guess Chris Sale is an exception to that rule, but he was kinda a different story because Sale sure didn't look fully healthy at the end of last year, so he was on my do-not-draft-list because of that).  On the other hand, guys like Nola, Kluber, and Thor who despite good ERAs struck out less than 10 batters per 9 innings last year have not lived up to expectations this year.

Edited by FootballFan101

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/6/2019 at 12:18 PM, FootballFan101 said:

 

I agree with you that there a bunch of pitchers with similar ADPs as Nola's that have been big disappointments too. Looking at the early-round pitchers who have met expectations vs. the pitchers who have not, I think the moral of the story is, if you are going to reach for a pitcher in the first few rounds instead of taking a stud hitter, take one that has a very high K rate.  Look, pitchers are always going to be more of a risk than hitters because of injury, but dominant strikeout pitchers tend to be more reliable and consistent from year-to-year.  BABIP can fluctuate wildly from year-to-year (just look at Nola's 2016, 2017, 2018 BABIP), but if a pitcher is a dominant strikeout pitcher, that minimizes that risk.  Scherzer, Verlander, and Cole who had the three highest K rates last year have all met expectations this year.  (I guess Chris Sale is an exception to that rule, but he was kinda a different story because Sale sure didn't look fully healthy at the end of last year, so he was on my do-not-draft-list because of that).  On the other hand, guys like Nola, Kluber, and Thor who despite good ERAs struck out less than 10 batters per 9 innings last year have not lived up to expectations this year.

That may especially be true now. Pitching to contact has different meaning these days, with so many balls leaving the park. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

#8 ranked SP over the last 30 days.

2 Wins, 2.21 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 45 Ks in 40.2 IP. 

 

Since April, he's posted the following line:

6 Wins, 2.96 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 92 Ks in 79 IP (10.48 K/9)

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, rcarena said:

That may especially be true now. Pitching to contact has different meaning these days, with so many balls leaving the park. 

 

 

Also, if the ball is different, you have to figure it feels different in a pitcher's hand. Another possible reason some top tier guys struggled with command. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/8/2019 at 8:37 AM, mjb03003 said:

#8 ranked SP over the last 30 days.

2 Wins, 2.21 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 45 Ks in 40.2 IP. 

 

Since April, he's posted the following line:

6 Wins, 2.96 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 92 Ks in 79 IP (10.48 K/9)

 

Nola's ERA is back down close to his career norm (last year's 2.37 ERA was obviously a gigantic outlier), but a 1.31 WHIP is absolutely horrendous for a 3rd round pick and is way above Nola's career norm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Nola's ERA is back down close to his career norm (last year's 2.37 ERA was obviously a gigantic outlier), but a 1.31 WHIP is absolutely horrendous for a 3rd round pick and is way above Nola's career norm

 

Sure but over the past month he's been pitching like an ace.  Perhaps he's figured it out.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Nola's ERA is back down close to his career norm (last year's 2.37 ERA was obviously a gigantic outlier), but a 1.31 WHIP is absolutely horrendous for a 3rd round pick and is way above Nola's career norm

 

The whip is taking longer to correct after the horrid start. You just quoted a post that states his whip since April has been  1.19. His overall numbers may not end up where you want them to or where we expected after last season but his ros stats are Are looking like they will be right there including his whip. In June and July his whip combined to roughly 1.09. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mehtavg2000 said:

 

Sure but over the past month he's been pitching like an ace.  Perhaps he's figured it out.  

 

Exactly. I don't care what he's done to begin the year. I care about recent results and he's clearly turned the corner and is now producing like we expected. I don't care about his final line. If anything it might bring us a bit of a discount next year. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everything that I read about him here and reddit about his stats and that last year was the anomaly convinced me to trade him. And I did. And now I’m sad.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

 

Exactly. I don't care what he's done to begin the year. I care about recent results and he's clearly turned the corner and is now producing like we expected. I don't care about his final line. If anything it might bring us a bit of a discount next year. 

 

13 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

 

The whip is taking longer to correct after the horrid start. You just quoted a post that states his whip since April has been  1.19. His overall numbers may not end up where you want them to or where we expected after last season but his ros stats are Are looking like they will be right there including his whip. In June and July his whip combined to roughly 1.09. 

 

Well, April stats count just as much in the standings as July stats do.   And also mid-June was the point when Nola turned it around, not the end of April.  

March/April: 5.68 ERA, 1.58 WHIP

May 1 - June 15: 4.38 ERA, 1.46 WHIP

Since June 15: 0.76 ERA, 0.87 WHIP

Sure, it's nice that Nola has turned a corner and if we are just talking about value rest of the season, then I agree with you.  However, if we're discussing whether Nola has been a bust or not this year, then I totally disagree with you because one great month doesn't make up for two and a half bad ones, especially given Nola's ADP.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As big of a bust as Nola has been overall this year, matchups don't get much friendlier than the one vs Detroit tomorrow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
On 7/17/2019 at 9:20 PM, FootballFan101 said:

 

 

Well, April stats count just as much in the standings as July stats do.   And also mid-June was the point when Nola turned it around, not the end of April.  

March/April: 5.68 ERA, 1.58 WHIP

May 1 - June 15: 4.38 ERA, 1.46 WHIP

Since June 15: 0.76 ERA, 0.87 WHIP

Sure, it's nice that Nola has turned a corner and if we are just talking about value rest of the season, then I agree with you.  However, if we're discussing whether Nola has been a bust or not this year, then I totally disagree with you because one great month doesn't make up for two and a half bad ones, especially given Nola's ADP.

 

Obviously, he isn't the Nola of last year numbers wise but I don't know how he can be considered a bust, a bust is somebody that hardly contributes.

What you had done with his numbers, you could do with any pitcher in baseball to get to your point.  The bottom line is Since May 1, he's got a 3.10 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP.  He was awful for the first month but since then, The ERA is quite a bit lower than his career while the WHIP is only a tad higher.  

He's given up more than 3 runs exactly 3 times since April 15th, that's 17 starts.  He's not a bust.

Edited by boomzdaddy
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, boomzdaddy said:

 

Obviously, he isn't the Nola of last year numbers wise but I don't know how he can be considered a bust, a bust is somebody that hardly contributes.

What you had done with his numbers, you could do with any pitcher in baseball to get to your point.  The bottom line is Since May 1, he's got a 3.10 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP.  He was awful for the first month but since then, The ERA is quite a bit lower than his career while the WHIP is only a tad higher.  

He's given up more than 3 runs exactly 3 times since April 15th, that's 17 starts.  He's not a bust.

 

But his season era is a 3.77! haha. Just kidding. Multiple people have tried to make this point to him yet he keeps beating a dead horse saying Nola is a bust. I agree with you. He had an Atrocious April and a couple bad starts in between then and now but other than that he has largely been in line with his career numbers. Is he what he was last year? No, but he is very far from a bust. Man would I love to be in a league with people who consider Nola a bust this year so I could have bought low. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

 

But his season era is a 3.77! haha. Just kidding. Multiple people have tried to make this point to him yet he keeps beating a dead horse saying Nola is a bust. I agree with you. He had an Atrocious April and a couple bad starts in between then and now but other than that he has largely been in line with his career numbers. Is he what he was last year? No, but he is very far from a bust. Man would I love to be in a league with people who consider Nola a bust this year so I could have bought low. 

 

It's because he wants so much to be right. He's been running his victory lap since the third April start. I will openly admit that I had given up on him late May/early June. He was atrocious in April and inconsistent in May. He's not what he was last year but it appears safe to say he's not a bust at this point. He had a rough go of it early on but baseball is a game of sample sizes and streaks. He seems to have gotten through the worst and now talent has taken over. 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/23/2019 at 10:24 AM, boomzdaddy said:

 

Obviously, he isn't the Nola of last year numbers wise but I don't know how he can be considered a bust, a bust is somebody that hardly contributes.

What you had done with his numbers, you could do with any pitcher in baseball to get to your point.  The bottom line is Since May 1, he's got a 3.10 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP.  He was awful for the first month but since then, The ERA is quite a bit lower than his career while the WHIP is only a tad higher.  

He's given up more than 3 runs exactly 3 times since April 15th, that's 17 starts.  He's not a bust.

 

The problem is even if Nola gets his ERA and WHIP back down to his career averages (the ERA seems doable but the WHIP seems a big stretch), that's not enough to justify his 3rd round ADP.  In order to live up to his ADP, Nola would have had to come close to last year's numbers or at least split the difference between last year and his career averages.  Instead, Nola has been worse than his career averages.

My definition of bust is relative to ADP.  Nola is currently the 157th ranked player in Yahoo.  For a late round pick, that would be a good year.  For a 3rd round pick, that's a bust in my book.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
On 7/23/2019 at 11:23 AM, phillyphan21 said:

 

It's because he wants so much to be right. He's been running his victory lap since the third April start. I will openly admit that I had given up on him late May/early June. He was atrocious in April and inconsistent in May. He's not what he was last year but it appears safe to say he's not a bust at this point. He had a rough go of it early on but baseball is a game of sample sizes and streaks. He seems to have gotten through the worst and now talent has taken over. 

 

As I said when we made the bet at the beginning of the season, if Nola finishes the year with a ERA under 2.80 as you predicted, trust me, I won't run and hide, I'll be the first guy to admit that I was wrong.  However, even with his recent hot streak, Nola still has a 3.61 ERA, which is even worse than the 3.30-3.50 ERA I predicted.  And to be frank, Nola is lucky his ERA isn't worse than 3.61 right now.  His FIP is 4.21 and his xFIP is 3.95 

Believe or not, I don't have a personal vendetta against Nola.  I actually think he's a good above-average MLB pitcher.  I had him on a bunch of my teams in 2017 when he was dirt cheap and was coming off a very unlucky 2016 season.  However, coming off of last year's lucky season where his ERA was significantly better than his peripherals, Nola just struck me as a very overrated player in drafts this year, especially considering he had the same ADP as Gerrit Cole, who had way better peripherals last year.

Edited by FootballFan101
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

As I said when we made the bet at the beginning of the season, if Nola finishes the year with a ERA under 2.80 as you predicted, trust me, I won't run and hide, I'll be the first guy to admit that I was wrong.  However, even with his recent hot streak, Nola still has a 3.61 ERA, which is even worse than the 3.30-3.50 ERA I predicted.  And to be frank, Nola is lucky his ERA isn't worse than 3.61 right now.  His FIP is 4.21 and his xFIP is 3.95 

Believe or not, I don't have a personal vendetta against Nola.  I actually think he's a good above-average MLB pitcher.  I had him on a bunch of my teams in 2017 when he was dirt cheap and was coming off a very unlucky 2016 season.  However, coming off of last year's lucky season where his ERA was significantly better than his peripherals, Nola just struck me as a very overrated player in drafts this year, especially considering he had the same ADP as Gerrit Cole, who had way better peripherals last year.

 

It's not just a hot streak, he's turned the corner. Last thirty days his ERA has been 1.59 and his WHIP 0.93. Now he won't keep that blistering pace up, but watching him he is firing on all cylinders again. I've kept it no secret that I had all but given up on him at one point. But he is back, and with a third of the season left to go his ratios should end up somewhere between 2017 and 2018. Probably closer to the former but solidly out of bust territory. You can't just look at the 3.61 and say he's having a bad year (btw that's 27th in the league and he should move up), you have to look at what he's doing now. Ratio stats take a while to correct themselves, on the hitting side Goldy started off worse than Nola this year and still finished with good numbers. 

Ok, I've rambled a bit but my point is there's still a third of the season left and with the way he's been pitching the past month plus, Nola should finish with solid numbers. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

As I said when we made the bet at the beginning of the season, if Nola finishes the year with a ERA under 2.80 as you predicted, trust me, I won't run and hide, I'll be the first guy to admit that I was wrong.  However, even with his recent hot streak, Nola still has a 3.61 ERA, which is even worse than the 3.30-3.50 ERA I predicted.  And to be frank, Nola is lucky his ERA isn't worse than 3.61 right now.  His FIP is 4.21 and his xFIP is 3.95 

Believe or not, I don't have a personal vendetta against Nola.  I actually think he's a good above-average MLB pitcher.  I had him on a bunch of my teams in 2017 when he was dirt cheap and was coming off a very unlucky 2016 season.  However, coming off of last year's lucky season where his ERA was significantly better than his peripherals, Nola just struck me as a very overrated player in drafts this year, especially considering he had the same ADP as Gerrit Cole, who had way better peripherals last year.

 

Just want to add I do believe that you don't have a vendetta. I, and others it seems, just think you were a bit quick with the bust label, calling him one after three starts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

The problem is even if Nola gets his ERA and WHIP back down to his career averages (the ERA seems doable but the WHIP seems a big stretch), that's not enough to justify his 3rd round ADP.  In order to live up to his ADP, Nola would have had to come close to last year's numbers or at least split the difference between last year and his career averages.  Instead, Nola has been worse than his career averages.

My definition of bust is relative to ADP.  Nola is currently the 157th ranked player in Yahoo.  For a late round pick, that would be a good year.  For a 3rd round pick, that's a bust in my book.

 

MIke Trout was drafted consensus #1 overall in 99% of drafts.  He's ranked 3rd/4th this year, therefore he's a bust.  Mookie Betts and Arenado were typically top 3 in most drafts and are ranked in the 20's...BUSTS.  Bregman ranked as a late 2nd/early 3rd rounder but is ranked 39th overall.  BUST!

I'd say the consensus definition of a bust is a guy you draft very early who does absolutely nothing to help your team.  It's essentially a waste of a pick.  If Nola keeps pitching like he has since June, he has the ability to win a lot of championships for teams with that effort.  He may have screwed owners in the first 2 months, but he's definitely producing now and had jumped from a 500-ish overall rank to a 150-ish rank (135 in my league) with just one and a half months of good pitching.  It's possible if he continues this hot streak he could end up right at the value he was drafted at.

 

Edited by cizastro
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's a big difference between a bust and a disappointment, IMO. 

With some of the disappointments we've seen from pitchers like Sale, Snell, Thor, here is Nola who has been pretty good overall for about 3 months now.  

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, cizastro said:

 

MIke Trout was drafted consensus #1 overall in 99% of drafts.  He's ranked 3rd/4th this year, therefore he's a bust.  Mookie Betts and Arenado were typically top 3 in most drafts and are ranked in the 20's...BUSTS.  Bregman ranked as a late 2nd/early 3rd rounder but is ranked 39th overall.  BUST!

I'd say the consensus definition of a bust is a guy you draft very early who does absolutely nothing to help your team.  It's essentially a waste of a pick.  If Nola keeps pitching like he has since June, he has the ability to win a lot of championships for teams with that effort.  He may have screwed owners in the first 2 months, but he's definitely producing now and had jumped from a 500-ish overall rank to a 150-ish rank (135 in my league) with just one and a half months of good pitching.  It's possible if he continues this hot streak he could end up right at the value he was drafted at.

 

 

Maybe disappointing or overvalued would be a better word to describe Nola than bust.  Obviously Nola is not a bum who does absolutely nothing to help your team; he's certainly an above-average MLB pitcher.

However, pitching at his career ratios would not have been close to enough to justify his 3rd round ADP (he would have needed to at least split the difference between his career ratios and his 2018 ratios to do that) and Nola hasn't even pitched as well his career ratios this year (his ERA isn't that far off but his WHIP is way worse)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's clawed his way all the way back into the top 100 in Yahoo 5x5 leagues. Ranked #98 overall now. 

 

Mar/April: 5.68 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 32 Ks, 2 W in 31.2 IP (6 starts)

May: 2.73 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 42 Ks, 4 W in 33 IP (6 starts)

June: 4.31 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 36 Ks, 0 W in 31.1 IP (5 starts)

July: 2.52 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 43 Ks, 3 W in 39.1 IP (6 starts)

August: 2.37 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 20 Ks, 2 W in 19 IP (3 starts)

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...