BostonCajun

Aaron Nola 2019 Outlook

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1 minute ago, papasmurf said:

Fangraphs still has his Hard Hit% below 30% coming into today. But it really seems he's getting hit pretty hard still. Is the FG stats accurate?

 

FG uses something other than Statcast for their hard hit data. 

Not including tonight, his Hard Hit% on FG is 29.7%

Stacast has him at 42.3% but that also includes tonight

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27 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

I told you guys he’s back. Nothing to worry about. 

 

🤣

Well done sir. Well done. 

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In all seriousness he looked good tonight. Last homer at the end was frustrating. Deep in the count and just couldn’t finish it. He’s been looking better though. I don’t need 2018 Aaron Nola. However top 10 SP Nola would be nice. 

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58 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Pitches 6 against the Cards, giving up just one run and five baserunners...and no chatter. Did he look as good as his line indicates?

 

Basically what everyone else said. Took an inning or two to really get rolling, but he seems to be locating his fastball a bit better and his curve looks to be regaining its bite with each start. If he can keep his fastball command up, he'll be able to set up his curve like he did last season. Also threw some solid changeups for strikes and was generally hitting his spots on the corners/edges of the strike zone. Said earlier this game was a big test for me, he passed and imo should be rolled out there in all matchups going forward. 

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Never doubted him. Never considered benching him. Set it and forget it, people. Ron Popeil. 

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Tough test tonight against the Brew Crew to kick off a two-start week. Have to start him after the last couple solid performances. 

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If he's missing his spots he's gonna get crushed by this lineup. The one thing working in his favor is the weather. Not gonna be hitting weather. Mid 40s and wet and with the wind blowing in. 

Here's hoping for 7 innings of 2 run ball.

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He’s gonna give up 3 runs today. However the 9k’s through 7 innings and only 5 hits with no walks will even it out. It’ll be a solid day. 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, papasmurf said:

How is his command gonna be on a cold day. Scary.

 

Nola really looked awful tonight.  When you walk the worst hitter in the major leagues Travis Shaw twice (who probably couldn't even make contact if you set the ball on a tee for him right now), how is that not concerning?  And he continues to give up a ton of homeruns too.  Not a good combination.

Nola definitely made a great choice by taking the guaranteed money this offseason.

I thought his 2018 numbers were extremely lucky and I was expecting a regression to his 2017 numbers, but I never thought Nola would suck this badly.  We're almost a third of the way through the season (9 starts) and Nola, a 3rd round pick on average, has actually provided a very large negative effect on your team's ERA and WHIP.  

I know Nola's owners will kill me for saying this, but I think it's 50-50 whether Nola even finishes the year as a top 50 starting pitcher at this point.

Edited by FootballFan101
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Nola really looked awful tonight.  When you walk the worst hitter in the major leagues Travis Shaw twice (who probably couldn't even make contact if you set the ball on a tee for him right now), how is that not concerning?  And he continues to give up a ton of homeruns too.  Not a good combination

I thought his 2018 numbers were extremely lucky and I was expecting a regression to his 2017 numbers, but I never thought Nola would suck this badly.  We're almost a third of the way through the season (10 starts) and Nola, a 3rd round pick on average, has actually provided a very large negative effect on your team's ERA and WHIP.  

I know Nola's owners will kill me for saying this, but I think it's 50-50 whether Nola even finishes the year as a top 50 starting pitcher at this point.

 

Could be a hidden injury.
[...]

What a disappointment

Edited by tonycpsu

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1 hour ago, papasmurf said:

 

Could be a hidden injury.
[...]

What a disappointment

 

Definitely could be injury.  From 2016 to 2018, Nola's peripherals were remarkedly consistent with varying degrees of luck (unlucky in 2016, extremely lucky last year).  This year his peripherals are way worse across the board and his 4.86 ERA has, if anything, been a little lucky even (5.05 FIP).

Other than Kluber who got hurt, all of the other early round pitchers besides Nola have righted the ship by now.  There's no way to pass this off as just as early season blip anymore. 

I can't remember the last time a starting pitcher getting drafted in the top 3 rounds was this terrible.  Matt Harvey in 2016 maybe?  Can't remember if he was quite a 3rd round pick or was a little below that.

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His velocity is fine though. His velocity has actually increased from last year, so I'm not sure if it's an injury he's hiding.

 

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I just don’t think he looks as dialed in as he used to. True Aces not only beat you with their filthy stuff they also have a mental advantage because they know hitters are weak and inferior to them. Nola doesn’t ooze confidence to me at all. I think some of it can be attributed to a new catcher. 

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, GriffeySwag said:

His velocity is fine though. His velocity has actually increased from last year, so I'm not sure if it's an injury he's hiding.

 

 

His command is the problem, not velocity.  In contrast to the vast majority of early round pitchers, Nola doesn't have overpowering stuff and relies on command, so it was eye-opening when he walked 5 guys on Opening Day (despite being lucky and only allowing 1 run that game) and it's gone all downhill since then.  But hey, look at the bright side: Nola is still incredibly undefeated on the season!

Edited by FootballFan101
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16 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

His command is the problem, not velocity.  In contrast to the vast majority of early round pitchers, Nola doesn't have overpowering stuff and relies on command, so it was eye-opening when he walked 5 guys on Opening Day (despite being lucky and only allowing 1 run that game) and it's gone all downhill since then.  But hey, look at the bright side: Nola is still incredibly undefeated on the season!

 

He has not had his fastball command all year. It's so strange. He's been relying on the curve ball a ton to get strikes. 

His first pitch strike rate is down, walk rate up. 

I think it's fixable. It's not ideal but fixable 

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At this point, his draft cost is a sunk cost.  He's obviously not returning that value.  But, what do you do about that?

 

He is what he is right now.  He had 3 "pretty good" starts, followed by a bad one against an offense we'd probably sit most guys against.

 

I'll probably continue to set and forget, but certainly don't blame people for benching him against top offenses. 

 

No point in dwelling on where you drafted him, or trying to compare him to deGrom or Scherzer, unless you like being angry.

 

 

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12 hours ago, 89Topps said:

At this point, his draft cost is a sunk cost.  He's obviously not returning that value.  But, what do you do about that?

 

He is what he is right now.  He had 3 "pretty good" starts, followed by a bad one against an offense we'd probably sit most guys against.

 

I'll probably continue to set and forget, but certainly don't blame people for benching him against top offenses. 

 

No point in dwelling on where you drafted him, or trying to compare him to deGrom or Scherzer, unless you like being angry.

 

 

 

I do think there's something off at this point. I do still think he's immensely talented but something just isn't right. Don't know if it's physical or mental at this point, and it's certainly not ideal, but it is fixable. I'm back to where I was before the St Louis start, cautiously optimistic that something will click and he can salvage his season. Put simply, he's too good to be performing as poorly as he has been. 

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12 hours ago, 89Topps said:

At this point, his draft cost is a sunk cost.  He's obviously not returning that value.  But, what do you do about that?

 

He is what he is right now.  He had 3 "pretty good" starts, followed by a bad one against an offense we'd probably sit most guys against.

 

I'll probably continue to set and forget, but certainly don't blame people for benching him against top offenses. 

 

No point in dwelling on where you drafted him, or trying to compare him to deGrom or Scherzer, unless you like being angry.

 

 

 

You have to set and forget, especially in a 14-team league.

 

Can't move him with his value in the tank. 

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, IceGoat said:

 

You have to set and forget, especially in a 14-team league.

 

Can't move him with his value in the tank. 

 

Well, in most leagues you can probably get Nola for dirt cheap right now.  As overvalued as I thought Nola was in the preseason coming off a year with incredible BABIP luck, I think the pendulum has swung the other way now and it's to the point where I'm looking to buy him now.  [...]

Edited by tonycpsu
Trade returns are extremely situation / league specific and thus don't belong here.

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53 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Well, in most leagues you can probably get Nola for dirt cheap right now.  As overvalued as I thought Nola was in the preseason coming off a year with incredible BABIP luck, I think the pendulum has swung the other way now and it's to the point where I'm looking to buy him now.  [...]

 

The command issue is real though.  
Hopefully it's just some mechanical or mental block that he can work through. His probs started late last year actually, 

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12 hours ago, papasmurf said:

 

The command issue is real though.  
Hopefully it's just some mechanical or mental block that he can work through. His probs started late last year actually, 

 

Yeah I'm still optimistic that he will be a solid contributor this year, even if not an ace like last season. Willing to give him a break on the last start out given opponent and conditions. 

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On 5/13/2019 at 8:30 PM, papasmurf said:

 

Could be a hidden injury.
[...]

What a disappointment

A loss of command can be an initial sign of a labral tear, without any other symptoms being present yet.  So this is a possibility.

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On 5/13/2019 at 9:28 PM, FootballFan101 said:

 

Nola really looked awful tonight.  When you walk the worst hitter in the major leagues Travis Shaw twice (who probably couldn't even make contact if you set the ball on a tee for him right now), how is that not concerning?  And he continues to give up a ton of homeruns too.  Not a good combination.

Nola definitely made a great choice by taking the guaranteed money this offseason.

I thought his 2018 numbers were extremely lucky and I was expecting a regression to his 2017 numbers, but I never thought Nola would suck this badly.  We're almost a third of the way through the season (9 starts) and Nola, a 3rd round pick on average, has actually provided a very large negative effect on your team's ERA and WHIP.  

I know Nola's owners will kill me for saying this, but I think it's 50-50 whether Nola even finishes the year as a top 50 starting pitcher at this point.

 

This is accurate and a solid post.  I kept him on the cheap but definitely structured my draft around the assumption that he would be at least 80% of the pitcher he was in 2018.  You're right that those of us who did that are getting crushed right now by his numbers.  Here's hoping that it turns around...but right now it's so bad, I actually considered the ugly buy-low offer I got yesterday offering me Zach Davies for Nola straight up.  It's laughable that I actually did a little research before turning it down.

 

Let's hope for better moving forward!

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3 hours ago, Damn Yankee said:

 

This is accurate and a solid post.  I kept him on the cheap but definitely structured my draft around the assumption that he would be at least 80% of the pitcher he was in 2018.  You're right that those of us who did that are getting crushed right now by his numbers.  Here's hoping that it turns around...but right now it's so bad, I actually considered the ugly buy-low offer I got yesterday offering me Zach Davies for Nola straight up.  It's laughable that I actually did a little research before turning it down.

 

Let's hope for better moving forward!

I got Nola for Odorizzi in one league this week.  I don't view Nola as an ace (his 2018 numbers were the result of an incredibly lucky BABIP), but I'm hopeful he can return to 2017 level with a ERA of around 3.50 and a WHIP around 1.20 for the rest of the season.

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