Ry34No

Daniel Vogelbach 2019 Outlook

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2017/2018 AAA: 756 ABs 37 HRs 143 RBIs .290/.400+ 143bb/157ks

 

FREE VOGELBACH!!!

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6 hours ago, Ry34No said:

2017/2018 AAA: 756 ABs 37 HRs 143 RBIs .290/.400+ 143bb/157ks

 

FREE VOGELBACH!!!

 

Ive always been a fan of Vogelbach.

He’s had good numbers in the minors but couldn’t get much going in the majors although he never got consistent playing time. 

 

He has 4 homers and is hitting .197/301 OBP in 127 major league AB’s (145ish PA’s). 

In 2018 he had 100 PA’s and hit .207/.324 OBP. 

Maybe he will get a shot at some consistent 

PT at some point this year. 

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11 hours ago, Ry34No said:

2017/2018 AAA: 756 ABs 37 HRs 143 RBIs .290/.400+ 143bb/157ks

 

FREE VOGELBACH!!!

 

For what purpose?  To totally fail at the major league level yet again?  I agree he should get more regular ABs during call-ups but it is a real Catch-22.  He might get better with more regular play but every time he plays he does poorly so he never gets awarded regular play.

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3 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

For what purpose?  To totally fail at the major league level yet again?  I agree he should get more regular ABs during call-ups but it is a real Catch-22.  He might get better with more regular play but every time he plays he does poorly so he never gets awarded regular play.

A total of 127 ABs in a 3 year span is enough to know he's a failure... His walk rate is legit and a full season of ABs is what he needs. If there's ever a year it's this year with the Mariners in full rebuild mode. 

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23 minutes ago, Ry34No said:

A total of 127 ABs in a 3 year span is enough to know he's a failure... His walk rate is legit and a full season of ABs is what he needs. If there's ever a year it's this year with the Mariners in full rebuild mode. 

 

Where does he play?  I just think he is one of the guys that has a AAAA label on him and will never get out from under it's shadow whether that is fair or not.

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His best spot is hitter. With cruz out of Seattle finally, they can let Vogelbach hit if they want. The problem is they’re currently loading up on past their prime 1B/OF/DH types, so there may not be room for Vogelbach, but plenty have suggested E5 won’t start the season in Seattle. 

 

I think Vogelbach can hit if given the chance, but that’s all he can do. He’s a woeful defender with 20-30 grade speed. 

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with the Seager injury do the Mariners move Healy back to 3B and let Vogelbach play 1B?

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On 1/25/2019 at 12:09 PM, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

For what purpose?  To totally fail at the major league level yet again?  I agree he should get more regular ABs during call-ups but it is a real Catch-22.  He might get better with more regular play but every time he plays he does poorly so he never gets awarded regular play.

 

Yet again? He hasnt had a shot to really play. Healy and Cano locked down 1b last year and Cruz/Cano locked down the DH. He only filled in here and there in place of Healy when Cano was suspended and it was never consistent. 

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when has he been given a fair shot? dude has monster thunder in the bat. Like AJ Reed, I just think they need more time to adjust. Tall, thick first base prospects are like tight ends, they rarely hit their stride right away. 

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I think Vogelbach gets the lion share of reps at 1B. Last year, E3 played 190 innings at 1B, Vogey approached that (141 inn) with his limited time in the bigs last year. Small sample size, but Vogey ran a 10.8 UZR vs E3's -1.2 last year at 1B. I do think that there is a possibility that Bruce could play some 1B and let Dylan Moore get a few reps in RF but overall i think Vogelbach gets a good look here.

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He should play at least vs RHPs but whether he does is anyone's guess.

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AAAA player.  Dude sucks.  His bat is sooooooo slow.  I would be shocked if he ever did anything in the bigs.  

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If he was good he would have cleared a spot for himself..

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On 3/15/2019 at 3:17 PM, Cmilne23 said:

AAAA player.  Dude sucks.  His bat is sooooooo slow.  I would be shocked if he ever did anything in the bigs.  

 

You certainly follow the Mariners more than I do, but this article does lay out the case. Vogelbach has always had the plate discipline, but didn’t hit for the power he should given his size. He told a writer from FanGraphs a year ago in spring training that he was trying to hit the ball more in the air, drive the ball instead of just hitting singles. He specifically mentioned driving his hips through his finish and working on top hand strength instead of cutting his swing off for contact. As a result, he posted his highest ISO for his career in AAA in 2018.

His statcast data from his limited opportunity in the bigs paints the same story (his changes worked):

1) His average EV would have ranked 17th, just ahead of Khris Davis. 

2) His Hard Hit % would have ranked 7th, just ahead of JD Martinez.

3) His Barrels/PA would have ranked 71st right behind teammate Mitch Haniger.  Not as impressive as the first two, but good enough to rank ahead of Bryce Harper. In fact, Statcast has Harper listed as Vogelbach’s most comparable hitter. 

 

I say “would have qualified” because he only had 61 batted ball events due to a lack of opportunity, and the lack of opportunity partially stemmed from a crowded roster at the positions he can handle and an unimpressive triple slash when he did get to play.  Those surface stats are misleading, however, with an xAVG of .261 and xSLG of .483. Now with Seager shelved and Vogelbach out of options, he may actually get to play, whether in Seattle or somewhere else. 

For a cost of free (essentially), I’ll roster him to see what happens. 

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Big Boi gonna eat with the injury to Seags.

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Moran had a 40% FB rate in AAA. All this talk about swing change, then his FB rate fell to 29% in the majors. There is a pretty long list of guys who's FB% declines once into the majors. When can no longer swing they way they want facing stiff pitching that forces them back in normal habbits.

 

Vogly is one of those guys who will end up with high K and BB due to extreme patience. So lack of balls in play demand an elite HR/FB rate. No Speed, likely a lower BA. On a terrible team for R/RBI. There is a ton of appeal in OBP or deeper leagues. 5X5 12 teamers? Meh.  What's he do that Ryan O'hearn can't? Other than being a more recognizable name and less fat

 

Muncy needed to matain a near 30 HR/FB rate with 44% FB rate to do what he did last year. Which he got do in a loaded Dodgers lineup. The King of Power and god of Statcast Joey Gallo only had a 27 HR/FB rate last year.

 

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On 3/16/2019 at 9:51 PM, Slatykamora said:

Moran had a 40% FB rate in AAA. All this talk about swing change, then his FB rate fell to 29% in the majors. There is a pretty long list of guys who's FB% declines once into the majors. When can no longer swing they way they want facing stiff pitching that forces them back in normal habbits.

 

Vogly is one of those guys who will end up with high K and BB due to extreme patience. So lack of balls in play demand an elite HR/FB rate. No Speed, likely a lower BA. On a terrible team for R/RBI. There is a ton of appeal in OBP or deeper leagues. 5X5 12 teamers? Meh.  What's he do that Ryan O'hearn can't? Other than being a more recognizable name and less fat

 

Muncy needed to matain a near 30 HR/FB rate with 44% FB rate to do what he did last year. Which he got do in a loaded Dodgers lineup. The King of Power and god of Statcast Joey Gallo only had a 27 HR/FB rate last year.

 

 

Vogelbach should certainly only be a deep league guy, but the strawman of Ryan O'Hearn was an argument that was never made.  NFBC ADP since the start of March has O'Hearn going at pick 349.  Vogelbach is going almost 200 picks later at pick 548.  That's the difference.

 

Sure I'd rather have O'Hearn, but Vogelbach is basically a free last-pick guy to see what happens, and there's a plausible chance it works out.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, JFS179 said:

 

Vogelbach should certainly only be a deep league guy, but the strawman of Ryan O'Hearn was an argument that was never made.  NFBC ADP since the start of March has O'Hearn going at pick 349.  Vogelbach is going almost 200 picks later at pick 548.  That's the difference.

 

Sure I'd rather have O'Hearn, but Vogelbach is basically a free last-pick guy to see what happens, and there's a plausible chance it works out.

 O'hearn is an example of an end of roster player for 12 teamers. That his ADP is 349 kinda proves that. Not a strawman. I could use a ton of different players as an example to illusrate that is clearly a watch list guy in 12 teamers. That was the point.

 

 

Edited by Slatykamora

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Fair enough.  Every league is different. 

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I die a bit inside every time I know this loser has an active thread on this board 🤮

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7 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

I die a bit inside every time I know this loser has an active thread on this board 🤮

our local garbage pick up company is "Vogel Disposal".  I think of Danny boy every time I take the garbage out for pick up.

 

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I think he is worthy of an active thread now

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10 minutes ago, Ry34No said:

I think he is worthy of an active thread now

 

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Posted (edited)

I may need to eat crow on the Big Bod.  He’s crushing the ball now.  Never expected to see this.  Mariners got a tough problem to have keeping all these sluggers in the lineup.  

Edited by Cmilne23

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