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Prospects Live Top 100 Prospects

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57 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

Matthew Liberatore makes the list at 92 but Eric Pardinho is nowhere to be found? 

 

Pardinho is so small...he wouldn't crack my top 100 either. He's listed at 5'10 but apparently that is even a stretch.  

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2 hours ago, Coach George said:

 

Pardinho is so small...he wouldn't crack my top 100 either. He's listed at 5'10 but apparently that is even a stretch.  

 

I get that would prevent him from being at the top of the list right now.  But dominance is dominance and he dominated much more so than Libeatore.

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If he dominates Double A, that'll answer all the obvious questions people have regarding him and be well inside the top 50.  

 

Nothing has changed here what's held up his prospect ranking.  

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4 hours ago, FouLLine said:

Glad to see Deivi made the list but why so low?

 

Love to see my boy Tyler Freeman made the list.  He is so under rated.

 

The difference between Andres Gimenez and Isaac Paredes just shows they got it wrong on one of them.  They statistically are the same player except Paredes hit better in AA and carried better peripherals the entire season.  I like Jazz, but seriously  how is he ranked higher than Paredes?  Let alone nearly 50 spots higher?

 

Kieboom vs Lux... How is Kieboom ranked that much higher on the fantasy end?  

 

Triston McKenzie at 93, Keller 99, and McKay at 90 is absolutely laughable.  I personally would take McKenzie over Luzardo #16 and especially Puk at #22 dude's hurt right now.

 

 

 

1. Deivi -  Love the player. Really do.... but he is 5'10"/163 lbs. That's a tough combo to expect to be that much higher when he is still in A-ball (other than 1 appearance at AA to end the season). There have been guys his size that have been very successful, but its definitely an additional challenge to overcome.

 

2. Agreed on Tyler Freeman. Definitely under-rated.

 

3. I am not sure I would call them statistically the same considering Gimenez has consecutive 28+ steal seasons and Paredes has 8 total steals in his career, but this one feels like a trajectory assessment. That is, Gimenez has gotten better more linearly that Paredes.

 

4. Kieboom is higher because he's been better longer. Lux really surged last season.... before that he was way under-performing. I agree that Lux will surge this year in the rankings if he repeats. I don't think you'll see much difference after this year.

 

5. This is the one we'll disagree most on. I don't think McKenzie, Keller, and (especially) McKay have near the mult-+ pitch stuff and control mix that Luzardo has. Puk dominated spring training last year before getting hurt. He also has 2 potentially elite pitches. I don't believe that McKenzie/Keller/McKay combine to have 2 elite offerings. They are all solid number 3 starters.... and McKay might not even be that. He needs to start pitching against like-aged competition before I accept that he might not become Matt Davidson.

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On ‎1‎/‎25‎/‎2019 at 2:37 PM, oswald737 said:

India as a top 20 prospect. That's surprising.

I don't see it either, didn't hit in the low minors where he shoulda raked and K's 44 times in 150 AB's

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5 hours ago, oswald737 said:

 

1. Deivi -  Love the player. Really do.... but he is 5'10"/163 lbs. That's a tough combo to expect to be that much higher when he is still in A-ball (other than 1 appearance at AA to end the season). There have been guys his size that have been very successful, but its definitely an additional challenge to overcome.

 

2. Agreed on Tyler Freeman. Definitely under-rated.

 

3. I am not sure I would call them statistically the same considering Gimenez has consecutive 28+ steal seasons and Paredes has 8 total steals in his career, but this one feels like a trajectory assessment. That is, Gimenez has gotten better more linearly that Paredes.

 

4. Kieboom is higher because he's been better longer. Lux really surged last season.... before that he was way under-performing. I agree that Lux will surge this year in the rankings if he repeats. I don't think you'll see much difference after this year.

 

5. This is the one we'll disagree most on. I don't think McKenzie, Keller, and (especially) McKay have near the mult-+ pitch stuff and control mix that Luzardo has. Puk dominated spring training last year before getting hurt. He also has 2 potentially elite pitches. I don't believe that McKenzie/Keller/McKay combine to have 2 elite offerings. They are all solid number 3 starters.... and McKay might not even be that. He needs to start pitching against like-aged competition before I accept that he might not become Matt Davidson.

 

 

Gimenez does offer more SB potential but will taper off as he advances.  His SB% isn't all that great, which isn't a good sign in the lower leagues.  But outside of that Paredes flat out, out hit Gimenez... Better peripherals too and got stronger as the season went on.  I like both players I just don't get the gap between their rankings.  I'll take the better hitter projecting to translate easier over the guy who will steal 15 maybe 20 bases.

 

Kieboom and Lux will be good prospects to parallel this season.  My point is they too should be within a few spots of each other.  Not 14 to 58 or whatever it was. 

 

Puk is hurt his stock should have dropped more than it has.  He really hasn't gone down much from where he was ranked before the injury.  McKenzie is highly under rated.  I've watched extended tape on McKenzie and his fastball curveball combo is good enough to devastate even MLB hitters his first time through the league over a 60 game period or so.

 

McKay is playing with guys his level.  The vast majority of good college players drafted in the same year ended the season if not played most of their season in advanced A ball.  McKay will be in AA to start and his pitching could be big league ready next year.  I assure you McKay will be a better hitter as well as pitcher than Davidson if they let him do both.

 

Luzardo got hit hard in his small 4 start sample in The PCL.  Real hard.  Now I wouldn't take Keller over Luzardo but Triston for sure and McKay maybe too.  Luzardo has 150.67 innings (42 of which were in rookie ball) in his minor league career Triston McKenzie has 328.33 and Luzardo is less than 2 months younger.  Triston has more innings in Advanced A and AA than Luzardo does in his entire minor league career.

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17 minutes ago, BIG SKI said:

I don't see it either, didn't hit in the low minors where he shoulda raked and K's 44 times in 150 AB's

 

Well he hit fine for his debut but not well enough to be ranked that high in my eyes.  

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3 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

 

Gimenez does offer more SB potential but will taper off as he advances.  His SB% isn't all that great, which isn't a good sign in the lower leagues.  But outside of that Paredes flat out, out hit Gimenez... Better peripherals too and got stronger as the season went on.  I like both players I just don't get the gap between their rankings.  I'll take the better hitter projecting to translate easier over the guy who will steal 15 maybe 20 bases.

 

Kieboom and Lux will be good prospects to parallel this season.  My point is they too should be within a few spots of each other.  Not 14 to 58 or whatever it was. 

 

Puk is hurt his stock should have dropped more than it has.  He really hasn't gone down much from where he was ranked before the injury.  McKenzie is highly under rated.  I've watched extended tape on McKenzie and his fastball curveball combo is good enough to devastate even MLB hitters his first time through the league over a 60 game period or so.

 

McKay is playing with guys his level.  The vast majority of good college players drafted in the same year ended the season if not played most of their season in advanced A ball.  McKay will be in AA to start and his pitching could be big league ready next year.  I assure you McKay will be a better hitter as well as pitcher than Davidson if they let him do both.

 

Luzardo got hit hard in his small 4 start sample in The PCL.  Real hard.  Now I wouldn't take Keller over Luzardo but Triston for sure and McKay maybe too.  Luzardo has 150.67 innings (42 of which were in rookie ball) in his minor league career Triston McKenzie has 328.33 and Luzardo is less than 2 months younger.  Triston has more innings in Advanced A and AA than Luzardo does in his entire minor league career.

Puk got hurt 1 year McKenzie is the next Carl Edwards(way to light to be a SP'er full time). Has yet to stay healthy for a full season

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3 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

Well he hit fine for his debut but not well enough to be ranked that high in my eyes.  

I could see a young high school kids doing that in Rok and  low-A, but when college kids do that is it not a red flag?

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3 minutes ago, BIG SKI said:

I could see a young high school kids doing that in Rok and  low-A, but when college kids do that is it not a red flag?

 

I mean I certainly aren't projecting eliteness from that.  But I'm also not going to say he didn't hit.  I'm with you India shouldn't be in the top 20 the way I see it.  But that's where they have him.  I think a lot of it has to do with how good he was in college and sometimes it takes that first year to really adjust to wood.

 

Honestly at first glance I'm thinking India just might be one of those guys that loses quite a bit of power from composite to wood.  

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On 1/31/2019 at 10:37 PM, brockpapersizer said:

 

The exceptional ones do not have tremendous value in fantasy. In the last 10 years there's been like 1-4 entire seasons (not players) that provided early round value. I'm think that one year Mauer went nuts, Gary Sanchez a few years ago, and posey had a couple decent years and I think napoli maybe one.

 

I'm not saying you don't want a good consistent catcher, but even the top ones aren't studs every yesr and the studs put up the value of like a good ci option at best.

 

They also get hurt a lot. If you play in deeper two catcher leagues they certainly become more valuable because a good one is sure better than a black hole which is most.

 

 

 

Positional scarcity at this extreme position is underrated. My point. It doesnt take the big raw numbers you cited to land top value, a good example might be many of Posey's better years or Mauer's merely "good years" … Yadi Molina best as well, all net early round value in positional context. The seasons you cited rate out as some of the best fantasy seasons of the last decade when you add in the multiplier. This is single catcher. 

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1 hour ago, blabuwe said:

 

. The seasons you cited rate out as some of the best fantasy seasons of the last decade when you add in the multiplier. This is single catcher. 

 

I disagree here. The seasons were not some of the best when you add in a multiplier. There is no multipler. They did very well compared to other catchers. Getting blake snell in round 20 last year was much more valuable than than a 25-300 catcher. The counting stats can easily be made up at other positions. Of course those seasons are very useful, but the idea that they count for multiple more is not correct.

 

 If you have an extra OF2 instead of an OF5 for instance, that's probably close to the same difference of an elite catching year and your normal 15 hr 255 catcher. 

 

10 more home runs and 30 points of batting average counts the same if that difference is at catcher or outfield. It actually probably counts for more at outfield since the 30 points of ba would likely be across more plate appearances. 

 

Also every time we saw those super elite catching years lately they were always followed by a decent drop down the following year. So getting Joe Mauer in that one amazing year was awesome, if you paid first round the following year to get that catcher advantage you failed. 

 

You want a good catcher but the difference between a solid Salvador perez or molina season vs the 10th-12 best catcher is a lot less than I belive you're making it out to be.

 

 

Check the right column for the value the players put up for their teams. Look at catcher and then look at outfield 

 

http://fantasy.espn.com/baseball/playerrater

Edited by brockpapersizer

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The difference between the best catcher last year and the 11th best catcher ( realmuto vs chinrios) was essentially the same difference between Mookie Betts and Mike Trout (1st and 4th outfielder). Lorenzo cain+ chinrios was the same value as having realmuto + springer.  Could do this drill forever, it's not a big difference.

 

So last year I'm sure you might think off the top of your head you'd rather have mike trout and realmuto than Betts and chinrios. Basically the same and Realmuto was the best guy who cost a mid round pick and chinrios was picked up off the waiver wire. It obviously takes a bigger upgrade elsewhere to make that up in those rare elite catcher years, but still not that improbable to do.

 

 

Edited by brockpapersizer

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17 hours ago, BIG SKI said:

Puk got hurt 1 year McKenzie is the next Carl Edwards(way to light to be a SP'er full time). Has yet to stay healthy for a full season

 

Yes similar build to Edwards... So that is a concern.  But I'm willing to roll the dice as look at Chris Sale he's a long wiry guy too.  Triston is so young and so lanky putting weight on as he ages shouldn't really be a problem.  The impressive thing is how hard he can throw while being so light.  The kid already probably has more pro innings than any pitcher his age, which tenders more experience but also more wear and tear.

 

 

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14 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

The difference between the best catcher last year and the 11th best catcher ( realmuto vs chinrios) was essentially the same difference between Mookie Betts and Mike Trout (1st and 4th outfielder). Lorenzo cain+ chinrios was the same value as having realmuto + springer.  Could do this drill forever, it's not a big difference.

 

So last year I'm sure you might think off the top of your head you'd rather have mike trout and realmuto than Betts and chinrios. Basically the same and Realmuto was the best guy who cost a mid round pick and chinrios was picked up off the waiver wire. It obviously takes a bigger upgrade elsewhere to make that up in those rare elite catcher years, but still not that improbable to do.

 

 

No idea what format your talking about (5 OF "softball" format could change the playing field there) but in my league the spread between Realmuto and Chirinos is **4 times** greater than the spread between Trout and Mookie!!

 

This is the kind of math or lack thereof I'm citing.

 

Besides that Rob was (unpredictably) the #5 ranked catcher in my league last year, the difference is even greater when you compare Realmuto to the 8 or 9 slot. 

 

Yes I understand that catchers after the first tier are pretty close. I'm not talking about an average-to-meh Salvy season, I'm talking about the possibility you get a (prior to last year) Posey type season which is pretty friggin valuable if you do that math.  That's why we look at a Bart. 

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40 minutes ago, blabuwe said:

 

Yes I understand that catchers after the first tier are pretty close. I'm not talking about an average-to-meh Salvy season, I'm talking about the possibility you get a (prior to last year) Posey type season which is pretty friggin valuable if you do that math.  That's why we look at a Bart. 

 

Posey is a hall of famer imo or pretty Damn close at worst. He had just 2 seasons of 300 and over 20 bombs. Drafting a catcher for those great seasons that aren't league winners isnt what I'd do. That being said, Barts hit tool will not touch Posey's. He's also in an awful park for now.

 

The spread between realmuto may be four times but that's basically because Realmuto is a 4 and Chinrios is a 1. When you're comparing outfielders or potion players whose production is immensely more valuable than an 18 hr 290 no steal season with limited rbis and runs because of time off, you're really not gaining a ton compared to other seasons.

 

A catchers value over an elite position player is not multiplied by anything unless they are putting up the same stats as other first rounders. They aren't. 

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I have always thought that drafting a catcher is similar to a tight end in fantasy football  You can draft a stud early that is a productive as a regular position or you wait to the end of the draft and draft a tight end that is projected for 500 received yards and 5 TDS or a catcher that is projected to hit 250 with 15 homers. The problem today is the lack of stud catchers makes drafting a catcher early a bad bet.

 

On the other hand I did an initial 30 team dynasty draft last year and it seemed no one was taking catching prospects.  I drafted Keibert Ruiz in the 14th round, MJ Melendez in the 40th round and Miguel Amaya in the 39th round.

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5 minutes ago, Lonny Baxter said:

I have always thought that drafting a catcher is similar to a tight end in fantasy football  You can draft a stud early that is a productive as a regular position or you wait to the end of the draft and draft a tight end that is projected for 500 received yards and 5 TDS or a catcher that is projected to hit 250 with 15 homers. The problem today is the lack of stud catchers makes drafting a catcher early a bad bet.

 

On the other hand I did an initial 30 team dynasty draft last year and it seemed no one was taking catching prospects.  I drafted Keibert Ruiz in the 14th round, MJ Melendez in the 40th round and Miguel Amaya in the 39th round.

 

Catching prospect mostly don't pan out it's such a demanding position and they have to work with every Starting pitcher. It's such a cerebral position it's like being the QB of the team (to a lesser extend)  they don't have time to work their offensive craft like other position players.

Edited by LivingOnTheEdge

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Tight end analogy is pretty good, but sometimes the top tier tight ends in their prime are on park with a wr1. Catchers almost never have the production of a top outfielder. 

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So, in this combined top 100 ranking, Brujan is more of a #3 prospect in the TBR system rather than a #7 (per top 30 list).

 

It would be nice to inter-relate the different lists since it's from the same site; I get the human stuff as explained by the author, but once they have the combined top 100 list cooked out, I would think it will be easier to re-rank the top 30.

 

Looking strictly the TBR prospects: PL has Brujan @ 33 and indicated that he is #7 TBR prospect, but there were only 2 TBR prospects ahead of Brujan in Franco and Honeywell. #3 McKay, #4 Sanchez, and #5/#6 Lowes/Lowes were all ranked behind Brujan on the PL Top 100 list with the Lowes' not even on the top 100 list. It can get confusing. 

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