urban2014

Allen Robinson 2019 Outlook

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As someone who drafted him in Dynasty last season, it’s been a rough ride. This season wasn’t impressive at all, barring 1 or 2 games. What are your expectations?

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I expect continued improvement and more reliable results as Trubisky continues to grow and mature in this offense.

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38 minutes ago, urban2014 said:

As someone who drafted him in Dynasty last season, it’s been a rough ride. This season wasn’t impressive at all, barring 1 or 2 games. What are your expectations?

 

There's multiple things going on with Robinson and the Bears offense.

 

1) He had multiple injuries that forced him to miss games and play hurt in multiple others

2) The Bears offense spread out the ball to 5-6 receiving targets. Robinson had 5.9 targets per game and that number is skewed by a couple big games.

3) Trubisky looked like an average QB in 2018. Relying on Nagy who schemed open the #1 read for easy yards. Once Trubisky was forced in to reading a defense and going through the route tree he looked pretty bad.

 

I think Robinson has the talent to be #1 fantasy WR but I don't think he will reach that level with the Bears spreading out the ball and Tannehill 2.0 throwing to him.

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Arob is flex material only wr3 with upside. you can't reliably predict his utilization week to week because Nagy wants to implement a lot of misdirection and limit trubiskys errors. 

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WR36 on a per game basis in half ppr leagues in '18.

 

In '19, top 30 is about the best you can hope for I think.  Nagy spreads it around too much and I don't think Trubisky is much better than Blake Bortles.   Just my personal opinion.

 

There's meat on the bone for a big TD spike in '19 though.  They seemed to look his way a lot when they reached the red zone.  Just couldn't connect very often.  But I don't want to bank on touchdowns unless it's Adams/AB/Hopkins.

Edited by Lord_Varys
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14 hours ago, FISH20 said:

Trubisky looked like an average QB in 2018. Relying on Nagy who schemed open the #1 read for easy yards. Once Trubisky was forced in to reading a defense and going through the route tree he looked pretty bad.

Imagine that...a coach that sees the importance in getting the #1 read open for his qb.

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There might be a bump in health next season, finally being a full-time participant in camp will help...but this doesn't appear be an offense that will feed one wr.   Nothing more than a bye-week dice roll unless some new chapters are added to the playbook. 

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Everyone still down on him going into his 2nd year off an ACL injury/offensive system? Maybe progress by Trubisky and adding Montgomery helps?

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I’m a Robinson owner so I’d love to see him be a bigger part of a higher powered passing O, but the Bears aren’t built like that.

 

I see CHI winning by running the ball and playing strong D.  Drafting Montgomery only reinforces that, and I think he’s the right guy in a prime spot to thrive in that environment and that kind of game planning. 

They’ll still pass but I see them trying to limit Trubisky to some where around 31-32 attempts a game.  Figure his completion percentage to go up slightly given his increased experience, and I’m figuring Trubisky to post about 3800-3850 passing yards on 505 attempts with 345 completions this year with around 26-28 passing TDs.

 

Now going to Robinson with those Trubisky numbers, if he stays healthy I think he is probably good for about 110-115 targets and about 70 catches for around 950-980 yds.  What is going to determine whether he’s a WR2 or a WR3 is going to be TDs.  If he can catch 8-10 of those TDs, he may sneak into WR2 territory.  If not, he’d be a very solid WR3.  

 

I would love to think differently, but I can’t see a situation with what the Bears are likely to do that he can get to 1050+ yards and 12+ TDs.  I figure them to try to shorten games and play into their D with a lot of running and higher percentage passing.  So even with a healthy Robinson, their passing game and thereby WR opportunities figure to be capped.

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Posted (edited)

One of the true fantasy enigmas of his generation. Overall a disappointment in 2018 who still managed to show up huge in a couple of games. I like the chances of he and Trubisky's chemistry improving somewhat. We know Robinson is a talented WR with all the tools. We also know how frustrating he can be to own. That said, I think high-end WR3 is within reason. I wouldn't expect much more than that, but A-Rob is the kind of guy who owners seem to be wrong about almost every season. 

Edited by SenatorSpaceman
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This guy is right in that crop of extremely polarizing WRs in that 46-60th range. These are guys with significant upside with chances at being a bargain at their respective ADPs. 

I still do not know if i have a favorite out of the bunch. I agree with the previous posters- year 2 post ACL makes this extremely enticing. Year 2 in an offense with upside, same pieces all here, better RB1 (potentially)... 75-90 catches, 1000 yards, 8-10 TDs seems very reasonable here..

By the way, the guys in this tier i am referencing are Godwin, Boyd, AJ Green (massive 2nd half upside, very risky), DJ Moore, Alshon, Lockett, and Calvin Ridley. Each of these guys in their individual situations have a chance at eeking into the top 15 WRs by years end, and all of them also could be low end WR3's as well. How are we comparing A-Rob to this group?

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A rob is below that group but I do think his value this year is really enticing.

 

If you recall, he destroyed the eagles for 10-149 and a TD in the postseason. I know everyone destroyed the eagles DBS but still, it showed promise he was fully back.

 

Miller is already hobbled and Burton hasn't practiced all off-season. They need A ROB

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14 hours ago, Motown_Magic said:

the guys in this tier i am referencing are Godwin, Boyd, AJ Green (massive 2nd half upside, very risky), DJ Moore, Alshon, Lockett, and Calvin Ridley...How are we comparing A-Rob to this group?

I’d rank that group Green, Ridley, Lockett, Boyd, Robinson, Godwin, Jeffrey, Moore.

I’m not as high on Moore and Godwin as others are. Also, I’d take Mike Williams and Will Fuller over half of those guys (including Robinson) and I’d prefer Robby Anderson to a couple of them. 

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A-Rob feels like a safe floor kind of WR, but probably a capped ceiling based on how Nagy will spread the ball around.  Right now FFC is showing him going sandwiched between Pettis / Anderson and Kirk / Fuller at the beginning of the 7th round in 12 teamers.  I feel like that's a pretty fair spot for him. 

Personally, I'm passing on Pettis and Anderson, and choosing between the other three if I have the opportunity.  Who I like depends a lot on league size, team makeup, previous picks, etc.  Fuller has the highest ceiling I would say, but also carries the most risk.  A-Rob feels the safest.  If I've rolled the dice with earlier picks then A-Rob is probably who I would go with to know that I'll get that baseline production.  

Also at the 6/7 turn and WR31 off the board, you're buying him at WR3 pricing.  So not bad value IMHO.

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Does Robinson play much in the slot? Trubisky seems to be much better targeting his receivers down the middle compared to the outside, seems like this could benefit Anthony Miller more.

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One thing that I believe will help is a likely regression to the bears defense. Defenses like what they had last year are rarely duplicated, and Vic leaving certainly doesn't help. 

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14 hours ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

Trubisky seems to be much better targeting his receivers down the middle compared to the outside

I'm not sure.

image.png.736c2c7ce448ca3d6df3d5bfca43683b.png

Based on last year's data (on PFR) it seems pretty even, with his deep passes in the middle ever so slightly better, and his shorter passes more or less even. If what you say is correct then I'd expect a bump in the short/middle.

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In the past 8 months since last season ended he has 18 posts in his thread, and zero rotoworld updates on his profile page. Talk about quiet. I'm not overly excited about him but he fell pretty far in my draft and seems to be a value pick this year. I got him as my WR4(in a league you can start 4 WRs). If Trubisky can even improve a little and ARob can stay healthy he may have a pretty strong year. 

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Reports out of camp have been great, a beat writer called him camp mvp. I think there’s major value because people see the bears and his name so far removed and yawn. He’s a great guy to have as a wr3 with upside for a 2.

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Damien Williams! I am playing ARob but wouldn’t over Damien. McCoy won’t play much first game and even against Jacksonville I would go Williams and Ingram ove4 ARob

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I was going to play Julio, Edelman, and Diggs but now I’m tempted to play him over Diggs because of the hamstring.

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Looked great tonight! 7-102 on 14 targets. Made some tough contested catches & easily the top WR read in that offense

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