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Allen Robinson 2019 Outlook

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18 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

So you're saying 1000-1250 yards? It's not impossible, and he was on a 1000 yard pace last season, but Trubs hasn't had a 1000 yard receiver yet in the past 2 years. "rock solid" is a bit of an overstatement - to me he's somewhere on the WR3/WR2 border.

I am very confident he will break the 62.7 yards/game that adds up to 1k yards, absolutely.

Trubisky not having a 1000 yard receiver yet doesn't concern me a bit. As I mentioned he was quite inexperienced coming into the league, for starters. Combine that with a stone age John Fox offense as a rookie and what he had to work with; Kendall Wright, Dontrelle Inman, Josh Bellamy? Wright had 1079 yards in 2013. That's the only time anyone out of this group had 1k. A pack of WR2/WR3 types not worthy of force feeding anything.

2018 new offense but ARob still not quite right physically after ACL tear (he even discussed this himself this summer, how different he felt coming into 2019 compared to 2018). An offseason of rehab instead of full focus on offense and chemistry is generally way underestimated by most. Anthony Miller exciting talent, but a rookie and was dinged up the whole year.

And as I said, coaching tendencies tends to get too much attention imo. Unless you have a moron as a coach or OC, like Mike McCoy, if a player is good enough he will get the ball. QB tendencies and stats, especially for a young QB with only two years in this league, often overstated as well.

Sometimes you also just need to accept there is player growth, and not just look at historical stats. Trubisky is likely better in the second year in the offense. ARob 2019 certainly is a different animal compared to ARob 2018.

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Just now, SyNdicateZ said:

I always go for WR that are targeted alot.AROB is targeted ALOT. 

My concern is the quality of the targets. ARob had to make quite a few acrobatic catches and Trubisky looked flat out awful. I'm debating selling high here.

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Just now, smeeze said:

My concern is the quality of the targets. ARob had to make quite a few acrobatic catches and Trubisky looked flat out awful. I'm debating selling high here.

TRUBISKY will get better. Both teams struggled. It was the first game. ARob is a legit WR. He will be fine. Dude still surpassed 100 yards even with the lack of target  quality using a few "acrobatic catches". I dont think everygame will be a DEF struggle and think Trubisky improves some.

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1 hour ago, SyNdicateZ said:

I always go for WR that are targeted alot.AROB is targeted ALOT. 

 

Me too. That's why I couldn't resist him when he was sitting there mid-draft amongst a bunch of crap RBBC RBs. I don't expect 14 targets and 100 yards every game but I do expect very healthy targets. Trubisky is competent enough to get him the ball fairly frequently.

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I think the biggest thing he showed is that he's 100% recovered from injury.  Last year he still didn't look right.  I grabbed him in pretty much all my leagues for the same reason as below.

Edited by humanpuck
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18 minutes ago, owenmills said:

 

Me too. That's why I couldn't resist him when he was sitting there mid-draft amongst a bunch of crap RBBC RBs.

 

Edited by humanpuck

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ARob is one of my favorite underrated players, and I’m glad I own him everywhere and started him with AB sitting out.

 

This is crazy: A Rob, in his last 2 games, has recorded 13 targets and 13 targets. 13 targets per game is 208 on the season. Unlikely obviously, but 10 per game is more than reasonable after we have seen him get 13 in each of his last 2 games. If he regresses back to 10 targets per game the rest of the season, he’ll end the year with 160+ targets and be a WR1.

 

Here are targets for WRs last year:

Julio 170

Adams 169

AB 168

JuJu 166

Hopkins 163

Thielen 153

Diggs 149

Landry 149

Thomas 147

Evans 138

 

 

If he regresses all the way down to 8-9 targets per game the rest of the year, still that is pushing 140 targets, and would basically lock him in as a mid WR2 or higher

Edited by elroypedro

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My biggest worry here is that the Bears will rely on their run game and defense to win games this year, leaving him with few positive game scripts and limited chances for big games.

The talent is there, and he proved that he can be a great fantasy option with a lousy QB in 2015/16.  If anything, Trubitsky throwing his fair share of picks will just force them into higher scoring games that would benefit A-Rob.

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Why does Trubisky have to be so bad? It’s sad. Trubisky and Bortles. Talk about catching the football from some idiots his whole career.

Edited by hangin n wangin
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Wow just found this in the stats...

 

A Rob last 4 games targets:

13

13

7

14

 

And that 7 target game was week 16 where the Bears went up big early against GB and Robinson had his lowest snap count of the year(only 46 snaps) while a bit injured and resting for the playoffs. 

 

Just averaging 10 targets per game makes a player a virtual lock to be a WR1. All signs are pointing that way, but to be safe let’s assume that he regresses heavily down to averaging 8-9 targets per game that he started last season at before some of his injury problems after his ACL started glaring up last year. That basically locks him in with a WR2 floor. Some TDs would be nice though, as we haven’t seen that from him as a Bear yet

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25 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Why does Trubisky have to be so bad? It’s sad. Trubisky and Bortles. Talk about catching the football from some idiots his whole career.

 

he doesn't have to be so bad

but trubisky excels at being bad, so we must give him credit for that.

and credit the packers defense against a top 10 offensive line.

all in all, until i see 3 solid games back-to-back-to-back, i know where i stand with trubisky:

source.gif

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The fact is trubiski was awful and this guy feasted. What about last night wasn’t sustainable over a season? He was clearly the best player on the field for the bears O and was used appropriately. If anything he could have or should have had an even bigger night with his endzone usage. I’m all in on this guy, all the moreso if Mitch improves only just a little 

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10 hours ago, claptondecheeks said:

Damn what round did you guys get A-Rob that he's your WR3? I got him in the 5th but he's my WR2. I went RB-WR-RB-RB-WR

7th Rnd  (pick 73) in a twelve team league. People were afraid Trubisky would not be able to throw consistently to Robinson.

 Let's see how next week goes. I subbed A. Brown with Robinson after the news yesterday. 

From what I saw, ARob was open and Trubisky didn't see  him quite a few times. Then Trubisky throws into double coverage in the end zone. Mitch never looked at anyone but Robinson on the play so the free safety went ARobs way and grabbed the int.

I think if Robinson had not been tripping over one GB DB in the end zone, he might have been able to haul that pass in the end zone and take it away from the Packer DB. He was off balance when the ball arrived and could not make it a jump ball. 

I was expecting the Bears O-Line to be better. They looked bad on several stunts and blitzes by the Packers. 

If they give Trubisky some protection, ARob might be a steal in the 7th Rnd.

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57 minutes ago, rabaak said:

From what I saw, ARob was open and Trubisky didn't see  him quite a few times. Then Trubisky throws into double coverage in the end zone. Mitch never looked at anyone but Robinson on the play so the free safety went ARobs way and grabbed the int.

I think if Robinson had not been tripping over one GB DB in the end zone, he might have been able to haul that pass in the end zone and take it away from the Packer DB. He was off balance when the ball arrived and could not make it a jump ball. 

I agree and this is true. I saw the same thing but haven't seen anyone else talking about it. This was a great game for Arob despite the offensive struggles so hopefully it's a sign of things to come.

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2 hours ago, cyberer said:

The fact is trubiski was awful and this guy feasted. What about last night wasn’t sustainable over a season? He was clearly the best player on the field for the bears O and was used appropriately. If anything he could have or should have had an even bigger night with his endzone usage. I’m all in on this guy, all the moreso if Mitch improves only just a little 

 

His target share and the percentage of passes thrown are not sustainable. Did you forget this already happened week 2 last year and what happened in game 3?

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2 hours ago, elroypedro said:

Wow just found this in the stats...

 

A Rob last 4 games targets:

13

13

7

14

 

And that 7 target game was week 16 where the Bears went up big early against GB and Robinson had his lowest snap count of the year(only 46 snaps) while a bit injured and resting for the playoffs. 

 

Just averaging 10 targets per game makes a player a virtual lock to be a WR1. All signs are pointing that way, but to be safe let’s assume that he regresses heavily down to averaging 8-9 targets per game that he started last season at before some of his injury problems after his ACL started glaring up last year. That basically locks him in with a WR2 floor. Some TDs would be nice though, as we haven’t seen that from him as a Bear yet

 

Aare you just making up stats? He got 12 this week and 13 in the wild card game. 8 in Week 16 and 7 in Week 15. 

Edited by Itachi_is_the_goat

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3 minutes ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

 

His target share and the percentage of passes thrown are not sustainable. Did you forget this already happened week 2 last year and what happened in game 3?

12 targets on 40-something passes is not that unsustainable for a guy like Allen Robinson. But the Bears won't/shouldn't pass the ball 40-odd times again, specially with that defense and QB. Even if his receptions go down, his red zone looks will go up. Da Bears didn't do s--- last night except in the drive where Allen got like 3 catches. I don't think they can be that inept again.

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15 minutes ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

His target share and the percentage of passes thrown are not sustainable. Did you forget this already happened week 2 last year and what happened in game 3?

 

13 targets is clearly not sustainable but it's not outlandish to think he could have a slight uptick from last year, where he had 94. Then he's over 100 targets with Trubisky in his 3rd year, although I'm not holding out hope for growth there. There's a lot to like especially considering how depressed his ADP seemed to be. 

Edited by owenmills

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3 minutes ago, claptondecheeks said:

12 targets on 40-something passes is not that unsustainable for a guy like Allen Robinson. But the Bears won't/shouldn't pass the ball 40-odd times again, specially with that defense and QB. Even if his receptions go down, his red zone looks will go up. Da Bears didn't do s--- last night except in the drive where Allen got like 3 catches. I don't think they can be that inept again.

 

Miller played 20% of thee snaps probably because of injury and Burton was out for the week. Not sure this is going to be the norm target share. 

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10 minutes ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

 

Aare you just making up stats? He got 12 this week and 13 in the wild card game. 8 in Week 16 and 7 in Week 15. 

 

Nope was quoting ESPN stats, and those assholes transposed weeks 1-17 with weeks 17-1. Their fault.

 

And he actually had 14 targets this game that the stats changed to 13 this morning. I just went through tape and he had 14 targets, so they should change that back. 

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He's a set and forget WR1 ROS. Let's not overthink this - his QBs consistently feed him, QB quality doesn't hurt his floor and he's a monster in the red zone. Large sample size. And he had Dez Bryant comps coming out of college. AR15 is legit. 

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9 minutes ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

 

Miller played 20% of thee snaps probably because of injury and Burton was out for the week. Not sure this is going to be the norm target share. 

Honestly the targets didn't seem to be distributed naturally yesterday. It was weird. Allen would get all the targets I've drive, Taylor Gabriel was the focus over like 2 drives and never heard from again. Cohen was the focus from the slot. Mike Davis was not really featured, he was just the safety valve that Trubisky kept going to bc he didn't want to lob it up to the WRs.

We will see what they do next week. I think they'll run more, so the number of passes to go around will drop, but not too much bc they'll actually get first downs so they'll run more plays overall.

Edited by claptondecheeks

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5 minutes ago, rylaughlin said:

He's a set and forget WR1 ROS. Let's not overthink this - his QBs consistently feed him, QB quality doesn't hurt his floor and he's a monster in the red zone. Large sample size. And he had Dez Bryant comps coming out of college. AR15 is legit. 

I think that’s a possibility, with WR2 floor. Not really a ton of room for argument either way

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