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Allen Robinson 2019 Outlook

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I’m really confused why people are down on this guy. The #1 Wr is supposed to have a high target share. 

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12 minutes ago, cyberer said:

I’m really confused why people are down on this guy. The #1 Wr is supposed to have a high target share. 

 

Probably cause of his acl tear..... Years ago, I drafted him that year .....so I pass on him every year

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19 minutes ago, CABLE87 said:

 

Probably cause of his acl tear..... Years ago, I drafted him that year .....so I pass on him every year

I usually downgrade guys the year after tearing an ACL. By year 2, I don't really consider it.

Edited by EaglesRocker97

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I do not own AR15 anywhere.  I'm going to copy paste what I said last night in the forum group chat:

AR15 looked fantastic tonight, and I don't mean the box score. His release off the line, routes, body positioning at the side line, and his most impressive catch of the night, was the one that didn't even count. I would be optimistic for his season, but own him no where. So much so, that went to go see who drafted him, because I thought maybe I could buy low while they thought they were selling high, only to find out he was drafted in the 5th... whoops!

I can't speak to Trubisky, the targets, or the offense as a whole yet... but AR15 looked REALLY good to me last night.
I would be willing to buy low.  And before the Trolls quote me crying "How can you buy low on a guy who went 14/7/102?!? waahhh"

There are people, hell right above this post even, who are claiming last night was a fluke, unsustainable, Trubisky sucks, yadda yadda yadda.  There are scenarios where people who draft AR15, watched last nights game, and think this is a 'sell high' time for AR15.  What I'm telling you, is that if you can find an owner who wants to sell high, there are scenarios where both owners get what they want.  One thinks they're selling high while the other thinks they're buying low, and both teams walk away with a win.  That is a legitimate possibility and worth exploring for believers.

His ADP is currently in the 6th~7th round of 12 team PPR leagues.  If I were in a league where he went there or lower or an auction where he went cheap, I'd be willing to send out a feeler offer, at equal or slightly higher value, with a cap of the 5th round max and see where it goes.

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In the eight games after he returned from injury he averaged 8 targets per game (including a playoff game). That would give him 128 over a full season. That, or slightly more, is certainly reasonable for a player of his caliber and considering his team context. They have no other great pass catchers. He isn't on the Rams. 

For reference, he had 151 targets in each of 2015 and 2016 in Jacksonville.

 

Trubisky is a problem for him but we have seen him produce despite bad QB play before. 

 

Robinson is a solid WR2 with upside for me and was a great value being drafted as a WR3.

Edited by Ace_King

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I just want to point out hes not AR15 anymore

due to regulations and government overreach hes now

AR12

 

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As can be said of quite a few WRs, A Rob is a top 8 receiver in a Chiefs uni. But alas, he is not. He did look great last night but in the Bears O is not going to translate to consistent WR2. He 'll have some big games and a nice receiver for the Bears but he cannot be counted on in fantasy. Mid WR 3 at best. 

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2 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

I do not own AR15 anywhere.  I'm going to copy paste what I said last night in the forum group chat:

AR15 looked fantastic tonight, and I don't mean the box score. His release off the line, routes, body positioning at the side line, and his most impressive catch of the night, was the one that didn't even count. I would be optimistic for his season, but own him no where. So much so, that went to go see who drafted him, because I thought maybe I could buy low while they thought they were selling high, only to find out he was drafted in the 5th... whoops!

I can't speak to Trubisky, the targets, or the offense as a whole yet... but AR15 looked REALLY good to me last night.
I would be willing to buy low.  And before the Trolls quote me crying "How can you buy low on a guy who went 14/7/102?!? waahhh"

There are people, hell right above this post even, who are claiming last night was a fluke, unsustainable, Trubisky sucks, yadda yadda yadda.  There are scenarios where people who draft AR15, watched last nights game, and think this is a 'sell high' time for AR15.  What I'm telling you, is that if you can find an owner who wants to sell high, there are scenarios where both owners get what they want.  One thinks they're selling high while the other thinks they're buying low, and both teams walk away with a win.  That is a legitimate possibility and worth exploring for believers.

His ADP is currently in the 6th~7th round of 12 team PPR leagues.  If I were in a league where he went there or lower or an auction where he went cheap, I'd be willing to send out a feeler offer, at equal or slightly higher value, with a cap of the 5th round max and see where it goes.

 

THIS

People are WAY overreacting to a terrible performance from Trubisky last night.  Robinson looked fantastic - any wise owner would look at this as a buy low based on how Trubisky looked & a scared Robinson owner who wants to sell & get whatever he can right now for him.

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Just now, IlliniGuy76 said:

 

THIS

People are WAY overreacting to a terrible performance from Trubisky last night.  Robinson looked fantastic - any wise owner would look at this as a buy low based on how Trubisky looked & a scared Robinson owner who wants to sell & get whatever he can right now for him.

I think it is the Bears O-line that needs to be fixed. They were a pretty good unit last year. They did not look good last night. Give Mitch a little time and see if the results are much better. 

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17 minutes ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

 

THIS

People are WAY overreacting to a terrible performance from Trubisky last night.  Robinson looked fantastic - any wise owner would look at this as a buy low based on how Trubisky looked & a scared Robinson owner who wants to sell & get whatever he can right now for him.

 

Buy low on Robinson? lol...

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Yeah, the Bears oline got mangled. As per PFF, Trubisky was under pressure 39.6% of his dropbacks. He only faced that amount of pressure in ONE game last year. For the whole 2018 season he had the ninth lowest pressure rate at 28.2% of dropbacks. His 39.6% from last night would have landed second highest pressure rate 2018 behind only Deshaun Watson at 41.1%. Puts it in some context.

From PFF's game analysis:

Quote

Despite all the dogging on Trubisky this far, he actually performed better than normal in a clean pocket. In fact, he graded out better than Rodgers on those plays. In addition, both of Trubisky's big time throws came when there wasn't a blitz. However, when he was hit with adversity, Trubisky literally fell apart.


What's a little puzzling is Trubisky actually graded out pretty well under pressure last year. Now he suddenly imploded under pressure last night. Also, Bears oline really should be a lot better than this and normally are (fringe top 10 last year). Most things simply went wrong on offense week 1, to me it really looks like a big anomaly for the most part (well, 3 points scored pretty much already told us that). I guess that's what can happen on TNF and season opening TNF especially. Expecting a way better functioning offense going forward.

Still nice to see ARob stepping up and totally carry the offense when almost everything else fell apart. 40% of the team's yardage last night. For comparison, 2018 Todd Gurley, perhaps the modern epitome of an offense centerpiece, had 27% of Rams' yardage.

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3 hours ago, ACLs said:

As can be said of quite a few WRs, A Rob is a top 8 receiver in a Chiefs uni. But alas, he is not. He did look great last night but in the Bears O is not going to translate to consistent WR2. He 'll have some big games and a nice receiver for the Bears but he cannot be counted on in fantasy. Mid WR 3 at best. 

Says you...but that don’t mean s---. No offense.

Edited by hangin n wangin

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I drafted him at great value IMO. So he's a big part of my team. 

 

I can't see many scenarios where he replicates what he did with last night's points again without ripping off a huge play or getting TD's (which he's definitely capable of). 

 

I won't be shocked if his 14 targets are a season high. He only had 1 double digit target game last season when the Bears were kicking A and they lost last night. Doubt they wanna mimmick last night's game plan anymore this season. 

 

If the Bears want to have success in 2019 mitch should probably be throwing right around 30x / game while spreading the ball a bit more evenly like they did in 2018.

 

Bottom line if someone offered me something decent for arob, I'd probably accept and sell high. 

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Did a little crunching to put some numbers on the situation as well. Always helps putting it in perspective even if it's never the end-all.

Team alpha receivers usually max out around the 30% target share mark. Hopkins had 32% last year, Julio 28%, Corey Davis 30%, Davante 29% and so on.

ARob had 23% with Trubisky last year in first season coming back from ACL tear. We already discussed he looks like a way better player this year so a few steps up towards the 30% mark should absolutely not be a surprise given his ability. Especially considering all the praise throughout summer and Trubisky's words during camp that if ARob is one-on-one, the ball is going to him. Week 1 vs Packers he was right around these numbers; 29% or 31% depending on if 13 or 14 targets, I've seen both numbers thrown around.

This target share is not strange at all. What we obviously won't see continuing is Trubisky chucking it 45 times per game. He averaged 32 last year and really should be held around this if the Bears want any success as a team. Worth noting though is the Bears do seem to have a harder schedule this year so might not be able to have their defense bail them out as much as last year. Trubisky forced into a slight uptick in attempts wouldn't surprise me, but let's stick to 32 for now.

ARob had a 59% catch rate and 13.7 yards per catch last year. I'm expecting it to climb simply considering how much better he looks, but just to play it safe I'm using these numbers as well. Some outcomes depending on target shares below (Trubisky 32 attempts per game, ARob 59% catch rate, 13.7 ypc):

Target share - Targets per game - Receptions per game - Yards per game - Total yards
25% - 8.00 - 4.72 - 65 - 1035 yards
26% - 8.32 - 4.91 - 67 - 1076 yards
27% - 8.64 - 5.10 - 70 - 1117 yards
28% - 8.96 - 5.29 - 72 - 1159 yards
29% - 9.28 - 5.48 - 75 - 1200 yards
30% - 9.60 - 5.67 - 78 - 1242 yards
31% - 9.92 - 5.85 - 80 - 1283 yards
32% - 10.24 - 6.04 - 83 - 1324 yards

Hopefully this sums it up pretty well why I think the WR2 floor is rather safe. Remember, except for the expected uptick in target share these are all 2018 parameters, not taking into account growth for either Trubisky or ARob or the likely scenario Bears defense not being as dominant in 2019.
 

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What do people think after last week’s game? Looked like Chris Harris was on him for most the game, and he did draw a pass interference call on Harris in the end zone at one point.

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I completely expect AR15 to be on everyone's WW by week 6.

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The Bears offense leaves a lot to be desired, but Robinson is really good and Trubisky's #1 target. He'll have a good season.

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Just now, owenmills said:

The Bears offense leaves a lot to be desired, but Robinson is really good and Trubisky's #1 target. He'll have a good season.

That’s not going to happen. He’s going to maintain WR3 status on talent alone, despite Trubisky.

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1 hour ago, smeeze said:

That’s not going to happen. He’s going to maintain WR3 status on talent alone, despite Trubisky.

I’m assuming you meant to quote the guy above?

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7 hours ago, nb009 said:

I’m assuming you meant to quote the guy above?

Yep, oops.

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Really trying to gauge ARob's value for the week. His production has been pretty good considering how awful the Bears defense has been. And the Bears have a fairly favourable matchup this week. [...] Any signs this Bears offense is in for a week to finally get things together or should a "wait and see" approach be taken if we have other options?

Edited by tonycpsu
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4 hours ago, Idoolittle said:

Really trying to gauge ARob's value for the week. His production has been pretty good considering how awful the Bears defense has been. And the Bears have a fairly favourable matchup this week. [...] Any signs this Bears offense is in for a week to finally get things together or should a "wait and see" approach be taken if we have other options?

Redskins have been getting shredded through the air.  If Trubisky can't show anything this week, then I'll be concerned about Robinson ROS.  Still, having him as my WR4 isn't bad

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He’s in that if I need a starter I’ll throw him in but I’d rather start someone better. Just cause of Trubisky

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