DerrickHenrysCleats

Josh Gordon 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

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2 minutes ago, Grayson2401 said:

I mean, he put up 720 yards on 40 catches in 11 games just last season. What about extrapolating that to a full season is so difficult? It is not just hype or one great season. He puts up numbers when he plays. He just needs to play.  

Because that is like saying if Aquino played 162 games in baseball his on pace hr's would be 100 a year. When I draft a player I look for an entire season of stats. We all know he had that ONE great year. He gets credit for that 4 years ago. Besides that one year he has a total of 10 total td's.  Outside of that year he averages 545 yards and 33 catches a year. People are chasing a guy with one good season 4 years ago. Never seen this much hype for a guy averaging the stats I just posted outside of the which looks like one fluke year.

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Just now, FantasyGeek2018 said:

Because that is like saying if Aquino played 162 games in baseball his on pace hr's would be 100 a year. When I draft a player I look for an entire season of stats. We all know he had that ONE great year. He gets credit for that 4 years ago. Besides that one year he has a total of 10 total td's.  Outside of that year he averages 545 yards and 33 catches a year. People are chasing a guy with one good season 4 years ago. Never seen this much hype for a guy averaging the stats I just posted outside of the which looks like one fluke year.

His risk is baked into his ADP. If he plays a full season he is a steal. If he does not, he costs you a 6th+ rounder. Draft him or don't. 

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Just now, Grayson2401 said:

His risk is baked into his ADP. If he plays a full season he is a steal. If he does not, he costs you a 6th+ rounder. Draft him or don't. 

Easy don't. I don't waste 6th round picks on the stats I showed. 16th round pick? Maybe.

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Just now, FantasyGeek2018 said:

Easy don't. I don't waste 6th round picks on the stats I showed. 16th round pick? Maybe.

Cool.

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3 hours ago, Spyplane said:

JG isn't your typical WR when it comes to mileage and physical stress. He doesn't really fit on this chart for the same reason Ricky Williams wouldn't fit on a similar chart of RB's.

What you say is interesting. I think what you say is that because Gordon has played fewer seasons in the NFL, his body is fresher, and he can essentially still have his age 26 season at age 29. I like that argument, because I have played even fewer seasons in the NFL, so good things must be coming. That's great.

But you also make a serious statement that we can check: does Ricky Williams (who missed a couple seasons either partially or completely) fit the common chart for RBs or not?

image.png.4d7c0fc7a75126fba79a8caacfb457e1.png

This chart represents rushing stats; the thick line is the average for the top-100 rushers; I had already compared that with a couple recent Hall of Famers, to see if these guys have wildely different curves, and now I also included Ricky Williams.

Did Williams exceed the curve a lot after his return to the league? I don't think so.

What does that mean for Josh? Not that much. Never compare statistics on averages with specific situations. Still, the smart money is on betting he will on average be slightly worse than his best years, not better. That was my point.

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37 minutes ago, Grayson2401 said:

I mean, he put up 720 yards on 40 catches in 11 games just last season. What about extrapolating that to a full season is so difficult? It is not just hype or one great season. He puts up numbers when he plays. He just needs to play.  

He's better than that.

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4 minutes ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

"Outside of that year he averages 545 yards and 33 catches a year. People are chasing a guy with one good season 4 years ago."

 

Averages, yeah. With respect to chasing his ADP, some of us have had him rostered for weeks, very cheaply. Production-wise he did pretty well last year. Option routes are big in that system, should he gain the trust of Tom Brady, whether he's lost a step won't mean that much. Now, the team is doing their own eval so the whole thing could end up the big bombsa-buddha. If they're able to run the football, protect the QB, establish short & intermediate weapons in the passing game, Gordon will see plenty of zone & single man coverage.        

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How are you calculating his average? Including games he didn’t play?

1 hour ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

Because that is like saying if Aquino played 162 games in baseball his on pace hr's would be 100 a year. When I draft a player I look for an entire season of stats. We all know he had that ONE great year. He gets credit for that 4 years ago. Besides that one year he has a total of 10 total td's.  Outside of that year he averages 545 yards and 33 catches a year. People are chasing a guy with one good season 4 years ago. Never seen this much hype for a guy averaging the stats I just posted outside of the which looks like one fluke year.

 

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8 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

How are you calculating his average? Including games he didn’t play?

 

Counting years with no excuses of why he did not play or have full season stats. You draft him and those are your season stats. 

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1 minute ago, bhawks489 said:

How are you calculating his average? Including games he didn’t play?

 

That is what I was wondering LOL.

And to be honest, 33 catches and 545 yards a year for the amount of games he has missed is actually a pretty decent average-- though I am not taking the time to check because it is irrelevant. 

That is a similar average to a lot of the WRs being drafted around him: Kirk, Davis, Samuel, Dede, Mike W., etc. 

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8 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

How are you calculating his average? Including games he didn’t play?

 

Pretty sure the math is:

Take totals from age 21, 22, 26, and 27 seasons and divide by 4.  That yields a 545 yard/season average.  

Also yields a 16 game pro-rated average of 917 yards per season (i.e., total yards / total games x 16).

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52 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

What you say is interesting. I think what you say is that because Gordon has played fewer seasons in the NFL, his body is fresher, and he can essentially still have his age 26 season at age 29. I like that argument, because I have played even fewer seasons in the NFL, so good things must be coming. That's great.

Well then, pack your bags and get moving. I'm sure that prolific season you posted and your world class athleticism is in high demand seeing how you're in your prime at age 28.

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14 minutes ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

Counting years with no excuses of why he did not play or have full season stats. You draft him and those are your season stats. 

Well he likely was not even drafted many of those years. He has often been a waiver stash but carry on. 

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3 minutes ago, Grayson2401 said:

Well he likely was not even drafted many of those years. He has often been a waiver stash but carry on. 

Enjoy another year of 500 yards and 3 tds. He is always drafted.

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5 minutes ago, Grayson2401 said:

Well he likely was not even drafted many of those years. He has often been a waiver stash but carry on. 

Stop using logic. Just use bad math to predict future stats.

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Using his career to date, I question where to value him.  There is a granted risk of him not playing that should be baked into everyone's numbers but what is his upside?

Career Avg Per Game Excluding 2013, Pro-rated over 16 games is 918 yards.

Career Avg Per Game Including 2013, Pro-Rated over 16 games is 1,178 yards.

 

So you'd factor in meaningful risk of serious missed time and a ceiling of somewhere between 918 yards and 1,178 yards.  So his value seems to depend on how much of an outlier you think 2013 represented and how his head is screwed on this year.  

If you are talking 6th round value for him, I think that is too rich for me but there becomes a price point where he becomes attactive.  Just tough to put a finger precisely on it given how much unknown there is with him.

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In all seriousness, I think it is crazy to chase his 2013 (and I don't think many people are). But he could be a worthy pick with upside (and of course he has downside as well). He had a good connection with Brady last season (despite being an in-season trade acquisition) and has the ability to do so in 2019. In my auction league, he ended up being tied with two other players as the 26th-most expensive WR ($8). Getting him around that spot amongst WR's seems reasonable enough to me, as all the guys behind him have their own set of question marks. 

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, AHF said:

Using his career to date, I question where to value him.  There is a granted risk of him not playing that should be baked into everyone's numbers but what is his upside?

Career Avg Per Game Excluding 2013, Pro-rated over 16 games is 918 yards.

Career Avg Per Game Including 2013, Pro-Rated over 16 games is 1,178 yards.

 

So you'd factor in meaningful risk of serious missed time and a ceiling of somewhere between 918 yards and 1,178 yards.  So his value seems to depend on how much of an outlier you think 2013 represented and how his head is screwed on this year.  

If you are talking 6th round value for him, I think that is too rich for me but there becomes a price point where he becomes attactive.  Just tough to put a finger precisely on it given how much unknown there is with him.

I do not think his 2013 season was an outlier minus his targets. He is unlikely to ever see 159 targets again (over 14 games, mind you) and-- without looking at stats-- I would venture to guess his Average Air Yards per is going to be less in NE than it was in CLE when he had backups chunking it all game. I do recall him catching a significant number of long TDs which you can never count on but it did not seem to skew his average YPC that season as it was in line with his career average. 

 

But as evidenced by his career high catch rate last season (which he would figure to improve upon with another season in the system), he should not need an insane amount of targets per game to do real damage. Even a 42 Brady is an upgrade over what he had in CLE. 

 

He averaged a shade over 6 targets last season. With Gronk and a number of others now gone, is it fair to imagine he sees 8-10 targets a game? FWIW: He averaged a shade over 9 targets in the games Gronk missed. 

 

If we go conservative with 8 targets a game at a 57% catch rate and 18 yards per reception (last season's averages, respectively), that gives us something like:

128 targets/73REC/1,315YDS

 

He could easily put up a very good to great season without doing anything out of the normal-- you know, minus playing a full season. 

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1 minute ago, Grayson2401 said:

If we go conservative with 8 targets a game at a 57% catch rate and 18 yards per reception (last season's averages, respectively), that gives us something like:

128 targets/73REC/1,315YDS

Thanks for the post.  Some good info in there.

For me, I think that projecting 1,315 yards is the opposite of conservative even if you assume he stays healthy / non-suspended / etc.  

If he played 16 games last season with the same productivity he had during his 11 games in NE, that would mean 1047 yards in 16 games.  So 1,315 is a 26% increase over that 11 game sample.  That is a huge bump. 

I agree that he had increased targets with Gronk out but the Patriots have had a full offseason to adjust to Gronk being gone now whereas they simply dropped their top target in the middle of the season last year which to my mind is more favorable than Gordon's position after the offseason.  I.e., I think the Pats are more likely to increase usage in the short-term during Gronk's unanticipated midseason absences as opposed to their target distribution after a full offseason.  (I also don't consider his 24 yards per reception when Gronk was out to be sustainable and chock that up to SSS). 

Assuming he doesn't miss a single game (which is a huge risk item as I think you've noted), I don't put your projection down as impossible but I put it clearly on the aggressive side of the spectrum.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, AHF said:

Thanks for the post.  Some good info in there.

For me, I think that projecting 1,315 yards is the opposite of conservative even if you assume he stays healthy / non-suspended / etc.  

If he played 16 games last season with the same productivity he had during his 11 games in NE, that would mean 1047 yards in 16 games.  So 1,315 is a 26% increase over that 11 game sample.  That is a huge bump. 

I agree that he had increased targets with Gronk out but the Patriots have had a full offseason to adjust to Gronk being gone now whereas they simply dropped their top target in the middle of the season last year which to my mind is more favorable than Gordon's position after the offseason.  I.e., I think the Pats are more likely to increase usage in the short-term during Gronk's unanticipated midseason absences as opposed to their target distribution after a full offseason.  (I also don't consider his 24 yards per reception when Gronk was out to be sustainable and chock that up to SSS). 

Assuming he doesn't miss a single game (which is a huge risk item as I think you've noted), I don't put your projection down as impossible but I put it clearly on the aggressive side of the spectrum.

 

 

Fair points as well.

1,300+ yards for any WR is anything but conservative; that is a great season. 

I used his last season averages to figure my results with the only variable changing being targets per game. Even with a full offseason to game-plan without Gronk, it is hard to imagine one of their best receiving options to not see a bump in targets. It is probably fair to assume Gordon was due for an increase even had Gronk not retired, getting a full offseason to better learn the playbook and develop chemistry. Game-planning aside, there are 72 targets available with Gronk's departure and another 55 from Hogan's. Those targets are going somewhere, and Gordon-- along with Edelman-- are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries. 

Just going from 6 targets a game to 8 is a 33% increase so it would be completely reasonable to expect a significant increase in production (e.g 26% increase). 

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To continue:

If Brady has 575 attempts on the season (a reasonable number to expect) Gordon would need only a 23% target share to see 8 targets a game. Without much other than Edelman and James White catching dump-offs, who is Brady going to throw to on a consistent basis? 23% seems about right if not low. 

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