DerrickHenrysCleats

Josh Gordon 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Anyone trying to turn this into an AB proxy thread will receive a warning and suspension.]

Message added by tonycpsu

Recommended Posts

The conservative estimate I come up with for Gordon's numbers...

--575 attempts for Brady seems reasonable as mentioned above (based on Brady's recent numbers)
--112 targets for Gordon (7 targets per game; he had 6.18 after coming over in the 2018 trade)
--68 catches (60.7% catch percentage; he had 58.8% with NE last year, so hopefully chemistry with Brady could get him here)
--1088 yards (that's 16.0 yards per catch, which is under both his career rate and his rate with NE)
--7 touchdowns (that's slightly higher than his career TD rate per catch, but could be reasonable with Brady throwing)

If he hit those numbers, that would have made him the #20 WR in 2018 (1 point PPR).

Of course Gordon has to play 16 games. That's the biggest IF as far as Gordon goes.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Corleone said:



Of course Gordon has to play 16 games. That's the biggest IF as far as Gordon goes.

Huge IF like you said...

 

His games since he entered the league....16,14, 5, 0, 0, 5, 12. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

Huge IF like you said...

 

His games since he entered the league....16,14, 5, 0, 0, 5, 12. 

Definitely agree...he has more risk than any other player in the league IMO. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

Huge IF like you said...

 

His games since he entered the league....16,14, 5, 0, 0, 5, 12. 

Hence his ADP in the 90s. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Grayson2401 said:

Hence his ADP in the 90s. 

 

Yep.  He isn't matching up against the biggest world beaters.  It is a place in the draft you can get a total bust and recover just fine:

80 Latavius Murray NO (9) 
 
RB33 87 67 94 82.7
81 Derrius Guice WAS (10) 
 
RB34 91 69 88 82.7
82 Jordan Howard PHI (10) 
 
RB35 95 85 72 84.0
83 Drew Brees NO (9) 
 
QB8 65 83 106 84.7
84 Rashaad Penny SEA (11) 
 
RB36 96 79 80 85.0
85 Josh Gordon NE (10) 
 
WR33 82 107 73 87.3
86 Dante Pettis SF (4) 
 
WR34 92 88 82 87.3
87 Darrell Henderson LAR (9) 
 
RB37 99 86 79 88.0
88 Sammy Watkins KC (12) 
 
WR35 93 93 81 89.0
89 Cam Newton CAR (7) 
 
QB9 77 92 102 90.3
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, AHF said:

 

Yep.  He isn't matching up against the biggest world beaters.  It is a place in the draft you can get a total bust and recover just fine:

80 Latavius Murray NO (9) 
 
RB33 87 67 94 82.7
81 Derrius Guice WAS (10) 
 
RB34 91 69 88 82.7
82 Jordan Howard PHI (10) 
 
RB35 95 85 72 84.0
83 Drew Brees NO (9) 
 
QB8 65 83 106 84.7
84 Rashaad Penny SEA (11) 
 
RB36 96 79 80 85.0
85 Josh Gordon NE (10) 
 
WR33 82 107 73 87.3
86 Dante Pettis SF (4) 
 
WR34 92 88 82 87.3
87 Darrell Henderson LAR (9) 
 
RB37 99 86 79 88.0
88 Sammy Watkins KC (12) 
 
WR35 93 93 81 89.0
89 Cam Newton CAR (7) 
 
QB9 77 92 102 90.3

This.

 

His ADP is fairly priced (IMO) considering his risk/reward, much more-so than last year when he was going in the 4th and 5th rounds of drafts. You are basically getting the same player and same risks on a better team only 4+ rounds later. 

 

If you draft Gordon and he gets suspended and it crashes your team, you probably need to worry more about your drafting skills than Gordon himself. 

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, ss3walkman said:

Nah. 27 is their peak, but prime for wide receivers is until 30-31 depending on the player. If you want to go that route, Gordon would have much less wear and tear than most receivers since he’s had two years off. Hopkins, Adams, Allen, Beckham. Gordon is only a year older than these receivers (he just turned 28) with less mileage (factoring “heavy drug abuse” for weed is ridiculous).  By your logic all those receivers are about to decline. Antonio Brown is 31 and is coming off a 1,300/13TD season. 

 

Just weed? Well seems like you don't know anything about Gordon... Perhaps you should lookup his documentary he did where he willingly rattles off about 7 different drugs he abused... If you are going to defend the guy at least know about his problems and past. The "iTs JuSt WeEd" crowd is laughable with Gordon at this point. He has major substance abuse issues by his own on camera admission and weed isn't even part of the equation.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

image.png.c1dc7f31c74963c9e7fffab24b4a1961.png

I created this in the Julio thread, check the discussion there and draw your own conclusions.

Thank you, this is exactly the post I got my info from on age 28 the start of decline.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

His games since he entered the league....16,14, 5, 0, 0, 5, 12. 

 

Those 2 0's are the valley, now we're gonna hit the peak :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Grayson2401 said:

Well he likely was not even drafted many of those years. He has often been a waiver stash but carry on. 

Last year if not mistaken Gordon was drafted between 44-60... 

He scored just around 110 points. ... Did people who drafted Gordon get there money’s worth? 

40th place in WRs in 2018... 

Was he worth it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Last year if not mistaken Gordon was drafted between 44-60... 

He scored just around 110 points. ... Did people who drafted Gordon get there money’s worth? 

40th place in WRs in 2018... 

Was he worth it?

Do you not switch out players who are ruled out? Ppg was decent. I guess if you left him in your lineup when he wasn’t playing that’s on you.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Do you not switch out players who are ruled out? Ppg was decent. I guess if you left him in your lineup when he wasn’t playing that’s on you.

You guys keep trying to defend him say these things. If you need to keep switching him out then that is the problem. If you are judging a guy on his draft value then you want him for the season. Not worrying about who you will put in for him when he is out. Like the poster you quoted said people spent a 4-6 round pick on a guy that was the 40th wr. If his stats are correct. Thats is the issue and not who you will put in for him. 110 points worth a 5th round pick last year?

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He averaged almost 12 points a game in PPR last year. He meant more to non ppr leagues. But still if you can grab him as your third receiver then he's a great gamble.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, GoalineD said:

He averaged almost 12 points a game in PPR last year. He meant more to non ppr leagues. But still if you can grab him as your third receiver then he's a great gamble.

He was drafted in the 4th/5th Round in 2018 ... that is a WR2 

 

1 hour ago, bhawks489 said:

Do you not switch out players who are ruled out? Ppg was decent. I guess if you left him in your lineup when he wasn’t playing that’s on you.

Come on ..you need to stop drinking the Gordon koolaid you gotta know how the game is played. Look at his game logs, ugly lines. The two times he went over 100 yards the week before both games he had 42 yards. Josh was inconsistent 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, shakestreet said:

He was drafted in the 4th/5th Round in 2018 ... that is a WR2 

 

Come on ..you need to stop drinking the Gordon koolaid you gotta know how the game is played. Look at his game logs, ugly lines. The two times he went over 100 yards the week before both games he had 42 yards. Josh was inconsistent 

 

Or the Pats developed a game plan to downplay Josh Gordon in favor of more touches to another player with designed plays they figured had a better edge against that week's opponent.  NE has done that to its RBs for a while now, I don't see why WRs wouldn't get the same treatment. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

He was drafted in the 4th/5th Round in 2018 ... that is a WR2 

 

Come on ..you need to stop drinking the Gordon koolaid you gotta know how the game is played. Look at his game logs, ugly lines. The two times he went over 100 yards the week before both games he had 42 yards. Josh was inconsistent 

His game log was fine. Brady’s throws looked awful but maybe he cleans up his throws this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

You guys keep trying to defend him say these things. If you need to keep switching him out then that is the problem. If you are judging a guy on his draft value then you want him for the season. Not worrying about who you will put in for him when he is out. Like the poster you quoted said people spent a 4-6 round pick on a guy that was the 40th wr. If his stats are correct. Thats is the issue and not who you will put in for him. 110 points worth a 5th round pick last year?

 

tenor.gif?itemid=7570725

 

 

We play a weekly game.  I'll take a player who averages 20PPG for 8 weeks, over a player who averages 12 points for 16 weeks.
EVERY

SINGLE

TIME

Weekly PPG positional advantages are what win you matchups, not season long stats.

No, I'm not saying Gordon did, or will average 20ppg, I'm making an example, miss me with the bull-ish.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

tenor.gif?itemid=7570725

 

 

We play a weekly game.  I'll take a player who averages 20PPG for 8 weeks, over a player who averages 12 points for 16 weeks.
EVERY

SINGLE

TIME

Weekly PPG positional advantages are what win you matchups, not season long stats.

No, I'm not saying Gordon did, or will average 20ppg, I'm making an example, miss me with the bull-ish.

So youre saying its not a good idea to include games where a player hasnt actually played into averages? Gee what a crazy concept.

 

Agree with ya there. Also, I'd rather have a player sit games out rather than underperform so I can slot in someone from the bench.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, bhawks489 said:

His game log was fine. Brady’s throws looked awful but maybe he cleans up his throws this year.

Koolaid excuses .. blame Brady

game log catches ... in order

1 0  0 2 2 5 4 4 5 4 bye 5 3 5 1 0 0 

6 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

tenor.gif?itemid=7570725

 

 

We play a weekly game.  I'll take a player who averages 20PPG for 8 weeks, over a player who averages 12 points for 16 weeks.
EVERY

SINGLE

TIME

Weekly PPG positional advantages are what win you matchups, not season long stats.

No, I'm not saying Gordon did, or will average 20ppg, I'm making an example, miss me with the bull-ish.

LOL 

WEEK 4th-10th Josh  scored 73 pts / 7 = 10.4 pts per game 

WEEK 12th- 15th Josh scored 37.3 pts /4 = 9.3 pts per game 

those numbers are NOT 20 points per game.....

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, shakestreet said:

Koolaid excuses .. blame Brady

game log catches ... in order

1 0  0 2 2 5 4 4 5 4 bye 5 3 5 1 0 0 

LOL 

WEEK 4th-10th Josh  scored 73 pts / 7 = 10.4 pts per game 

WEEK 12th- 15th Josh scored 37.3 pts /4 = 9.3 pts per game 

those numbers are NOT 20 points per game.....

 

Im not even sure what your argument against gordon is. If you even have one. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, bhawks489 said:

Im not even sure what your argument against gordon is. If you even have one. 

Just keep drafting Gordon and blaming Brady 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, shakestreet said:

Just keep drafting Gordon and blaming Brady 

Keep trolling forums with no real reason why you are bashing the players.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

3 minutes ago, shakestreet said:
12 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

No, I'm not saying Gordon did, or will average 20ppg, I'm making an example, miss me with the bull-ish.

those numbers are NOT 20 points per game.....

 

giphy.gif

 

5 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

game log catches ... in order

1 0  0 2 2 5 4 4 5 4 bye 5 3 5 1 0 0 

 

game log catches ... in order

3 5 4 5 3 3 2 3 5 5 5 1 5 2 4 2 4 (WR16 overall last year)
When you average 18-19 yards per reception... that's what happens.

 

3 minutes ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

LOL at saying 20PPG....I will take a player that averages 20 PPG for 16 weeks over one that does for 6 weeks. Easy logic

Josh Gordon will average 32PPG for 19 games this year, including the SuperBowl.  What now?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Keep trolling forums with no real reason why you are bashing the players.

It’s not trolling. I’m trying to help so you won’t be the one who drafts Gordon. 

3 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

 

giphy.gif

 

 

game log catches ... in order

3 5 4 5 3 3 2 3 5 5 5 1 5 2 4 2 4 (WR16 overall last year)
When you average 18-19 yards per reception... that's what happens.

 

Josh Gordon will average 32PPG for 19 games this year, including the SuperBowl.  What now?

OK ..the new math 

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.