DerrickHenrysCleats

Josh Gordon 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Anyone trying to turn this into an AB proxy thread will receive a warning and suspension.]

Message added by tonycpsu

Recommended Posts

On 8/17/2019 at 11:30 PM, ss3walkman said:

I don’t see why.

Fantasy wise, he only missed one week last season.

We knew he wasn’t playing in ‘15.

We knew he wasn’t playing in ‘16.

He finally came back at the end of ‘17. 

As a fantasy football owner, if you didn’t research before drafts, it’s kind of your fault for being let down. The suspensions were always there. The other seasons it was fantasy owners hoping he would win appeals and return. You draft at your own risk. 

This is actually different than most other seasons. He’s eligible to return and be available week 1. Only time that’s occurred in previous years is last year. And yes, he did slip up. But if you weren’t in the championship last year, it wouldn’t had mattered anyway. 

 

Because like you said there are people who either don't research are go all out on gordon just to recapture old success and cash in on year after year of failed belief. And it was to big slip ups which were in line with the slip ups that kept him off the field in previous years. but you know...

 

ALL ABOARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Corleone said:

The conservative estimate I come up with for Gordon's numbers...

Forgive me if I don't think 1100 yards is "conservative" for Gordon. 850 would be conservative. Because you don't know if the guy's head will be screwed on. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

His game log was fine. 

Define "fine." Based on what he did with NE last year, it extrapolates over 16 games to about 60/950/5. You could do worse for a backup/late-round WR but not exactly greatness. However if by some miracle he grew a brain over the past year and does not screw up there is upside. His YPC is great.

 

Quote

 

game log catches ... in order

3 5 4 5 3 3 2 3 5 5 5 1 5 2 4 2 4 (WR16 overall last year)

 

WTF are you talking about? Those aren't his game logs at all. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, bomont said:

Define "fine." Based on what he did with NE last year, it extrapolates over 16 games to about 60/950/5. You could do worse for a backup/late-round WR but not exactly greatness. However if by some miracle he grew a brain over the past year and does not screw up there is upside. His YPC is great.

 

WTF are you talking about? Those aren't his game logs at all. 

He was fine, I mathed out his extrapolated stats below. He was dealing with some injuries mentioned earlier in the thread and joining the pats after week 3 or so. 

 

If you watched the games you would have seen that the chemistry was off with Brady/Gordon. He was also tackled short of the GL a few plays. He looked good catching the ball and think hes set up for a good year. Just hope he stays on the field.

 

Ave yards/Gm Ave TD/Gm
65.45454545 0.27272727
   
Extrap yds Extrap Tds
1047.272727 4.36363636
Edited by bhawks489

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, ponza88 said:

I see no reason, if he's playing a full season, why he can't build upon last year and become a Top 15 WR... With #1 upside.

 

Probably the best value/player you can get in rounds 6-8.

 

DISCLAIMER: I draft him every year cuz he's my bae 🥰😍😘

 

Me too. Have had him every year since trading for him in 2013. This year I picked him up in the 13th. Virtually no cost. He will crush last years production and be a top 15 WR. No doubt in my mind.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

game log catches ... in order

3 5 4 5 3 3 2 3 5 5 5 1 5 2 4 2 4 (WR16 overall last year)
When you average 18-19 yards per reception... that's what happens.

 

Since it seemed to go over people's head, these are the catch logs of Tyler Lockett for 2018.  (WR16 overall last year)
I was comparing them to the quoted catches of Josh Gordon as a reference point.

As stated, when you average 18-19 yards per reception, these are typical catch numbers you can expect.  You don't expect the same per-game receptions as Edelman, Landry, and other people who run 5 yard routes.

Therefor... it's completely menial to try and use a low number of 'catches' as a foundational argument against a player being a top 20 WR.
If James White or Edelmen averaged 19YPR they aren't getting 10+ catches a game anymore, that's just common sense.

 

We're looking at 2017 Brandin Cooks; 114/65/1082 but with the TD upside of Gronkowski, ~12.

That's 245 Fantasy Points if you want to view it that way.  That's 13th overall last year.

Upside, is that this guy literally could have given MegaTron a run for his money if he wasn't an idiot, but still has a chance to be on a yearly basis.
Downside, is he could be out of the league before we even reach kickoff.
16 game floor of 71/41/767/4.  Low End WR3/Flex Material.
I don't logically see how he can be worse than he was last year.

So for the investment of ~WR25-30 on draft day, you have a *16 game* WR3 floor, with legitimate WR1 upside, bust most likely a mid WR2... at the risk of a WR0 before the game starts.

That's a risk I'm willing to take for someone being drafted as a WR3 in the 5th-8th round this week of 12 team PPR leagues.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Your logic is flawed but I agree with your conclusion, that's he's well worth his ADP due to upside. But I'm guessing his value will skyrocket now due to others seeing a diamond in the rough or a great sleeper and it will be highly debatable to draft him due to risk when you can get quality WRs with less upside but far less risk. This would be a great time to have a draft before that happens!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

where  do you guys see him going? haven't had a draft yet in ppr so wondering where you see him going

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, floppy said:

where  do you guys see him going? haven't had a draft yet in ppr so wondering where you see him going

Hard to say. I got him at 90 in a 12 team PPR. I probably could have waited longer but did not want to risk it. 

Where to target Gordon is difficult to assess because he probably has one of the larger standard deviations from his ADP. Some have absolutely no interest and others (many here) cannot resist the potential and will reach in drafts. He could easily go in the 6th in some drafts and 12th in others. 

7th+ sounds about right to me. I would confidently draft as a WR3 or possibly WR2 if you have two good running backs and drafted one of the Big 3 TEs. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I feel like Brady’s decline is not being discussed enough. Outside of a few brilliant moments down the stretch last year, I thought he looked flat out bad when throwing downfield. I’m sure someone will pull out some respectable stats to refute this (I understand Gordon had a very high YPC last season), but my eyes tell me TB is on the decline. He will still be one of the best in the league at short passes, but that doesn’t help Gordon.

Gordon will still get some production off of quick slants, but I think Brady’s questionable deep ball accuracy will limit his upside this year. Still not sure I can resist the upside where he is going, but I have a feeling we are in for disappointment even if he plays a full season. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, FinsUp24 said:

I feel like Brady’s decline is not being discussed enough. Outside of a few brilliant moments down the stretch last year, I thought he looked flat out bad when throwing downfield. I’m sure someone will pull out some respectable stats to refute this (I understand Gordon had a very high YPC last season), but my eyes tell me TB is on the decline. He will still be one of the best in the league at short passes, but that doesn’t help Gordon.

Gordon will still get some production off of quick slants, but I think Brady’s questionable deep ball accuracy will limit his upside this year. Still not sure I can resist the upside where he is going, but I have a feeling we are in for disappointment even if he plays a full season. 

Brady certainly is not what he used to be but the volume alone should be enough to offer upside. Gordon has never relied on efficiency/accuracy. NE was top 3 in scrimmage plays and right outside the top 10 in passing attempts last season. If they hover around those numbers again, Gordon should still have plenty of upside. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, FinsUp24 said:

I feel like Brady’s decline is not being discussed enough. Outside of a few brilliant moments down the stretch last year, I thought he looked flat out bad when throwing downfield. I’m sure someone will pull out some respectable stats to refute this (I understand Gordon had a very high YPC last season), but my eyes tell me TB is on the decline. He will still be one of the best in the league at short passes, but that doesn’t help Gordon.

Gordon will still get some production off of quick slants, but I think Brady’s questionable deep ball accuracy will limit his upside this year. Still not sure I can resist the upside where he is going, but I have a feeling we are in for disappointment even if he plays a full season. 

Gordon’s not just a deep threat. Hit him on a slant. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, floppy said:

where  do you guys see him going? haven't had a draft yet in ppr so wondering where you see him going

I'm in a 16-team PPR slow live draft and he was just picked today at pick #70 (which would make him a late 6th rounder by 12-team format).

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Corleone said:

I'm in a 16-team PPR slow live draft and he was just picked today at pick #70 (which would make him a late 6th rounder by 12-team format).

To add for additional context, he was the 25th WR taken overall. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

we went twice as much as ridley and ajg in full ppr auction (Gordon was a top 5 nomination)

Gordon went for 21 same as cooks and 2 less that woods. think people will overpay.

Edited by colepenhagen

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Got him in the 12th round just now... Definitely a player you can capitalize on, people!

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[Posts removed. We do not need a lengthy digression into every person's draft or league details. If you want to follow up on these details, PM is the way to go.] 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, ponza88 said:

Got him in the 12th round just now... Definitely a player you can capitalize on, people!

 

This is an incredible bargain if Gordon is in shape and slots right back in.  Gordon's snap count was in the 20%s the first 2 weeks in New England.  Throwing away those 2 weeks as he was clearly still learning the playbook, and you're looking at a receiver that when fully integrated was pacing for over 1,100 yards.  I'd keep an eye on how things are going in New England, but with their lack of a reliable vertical threat and the loss of Gronk, the situation is looking up for Gordon.  Don't think I'd let him get out of the 6th round factoring in the obvious risk that he comes with and I'd hope the frustration of previous owners will keep his price at a bargain.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Illusion_J said:

 

This is an incredible bargain if Gordon is in shape and slots right back in.  Gordon's snap count was in the 20%s the first 2 weeks in New England.  Throwing away those 2 weeks as he was clearly still learning the playbook, and you're looking at a receiver that when fully integrated was pacing for over 1,100 yards.  I'd keep an eye on how things are going in New England, but with their lack of a reliable vertical threat and the loss of Gronk, the situation is looking up for Gordon.  Don't think I'd let him get out of the 6th round factoring in the obvious risk that he comes with and I'd hope the frustration of previous owners will keep his price at a bargain.


People aren't targeting him as much as previous years because they're scared off on a future suspension... even though Gordon has had the full support of NE this whole offseason. He's thriving in that culture... and I'm buying.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ponza88 said:


People aren't targeting him as much as previous years because they're scared off on a future suspension... even though Gordon has had the full support of NE this whole offseason. He's thriving in that culture... and I'm buying.

 

Just feels like he was getting heaps of love and support in NE before the shenanigans at the end of last year. You can’t trust him to stay on the field all season, but luckily, it’s not a massive risk with where he is currently being drafted. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, FinsUp24 said:

 

Just feels like he was getting heaps of love and support in NE before the shenanigans at the end of last year. You can’t trust him to stay on the field all season, but luckily, it’s not a massive risk with where he is currently being drafted. 


Has he not stayed out of trouble this offseason and didn't get re-activated?

I just think the fear is a little overblown due to his past.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ponza88 said:


Has he not stayed out of trouble this offseason and didn't get re-activated?

I just think the fear is a little overblown due to his past.

 

Maybe I was alone, but it blew my mind when he couldn’t stay on track last year. Seemed like it could be his last shot to make it in the league, and the opportunity was immaculate. He had a chance to play a big part in a super bowl run and prove to the world that he could keep it straight and narrow and be a reliable and valuable asset. Well he wasn’t there when they needed him most.

Last year I was shocked. If he slips up this year, it’s par for the course. But as I said, all the risk is more than baked into his ADP, so I will be buying. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, FinsUp24 said:

 

Maybe I was alone, but it blew my mind when he couldn’t stay on track last year. Seemed like it could be his last shot to make it in the league, and the opportunity was immaculate. He had a chance to play a big part in a super bowl run and prove to the world that he could keep it straight and narrow and be a reliable and valuable asset. Well he wasn’t there when they needed him most.

Last year I was shocked. If he slips up this year, it’s par for the course. But as I said, all the risk is more than baked into his ADP, so I will be buying. 


This is a good point and something I didn't think about.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

anything after the 6th round, that is where i see him really becoming a value.  once you're in that part of the draft you're looking at vets with solid floors and low upside and the unproven tier with high or limited upside.  grabbing Gordon in the 7th and having him bust isn't going to really cost you very much in terms of what you could have drafted instead.  but if he comes through you have a guy 5 rounds worth of draft capital there

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...