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Motown_Magic

Jack Flaherty 2019 Outlook

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If there is a guy with the best chance to take his first leap into the top 12 SPs next year, this might be my pick. His advanced metrics under the hood all check out, he plays for one of the best franchises when it comes to grooming SPs, and he has an ADP around 70 right now in ESPN leagues. Averaged 10.8 K/9 last year, and should be able to push 180+ Innings & 200+Ks with relative ease. The video below does a great job summarizing his skillset and strengths, I encourage you to take a look.

https://razzball.com/the-baseball-show-jack-flaherty/

 

It's risky, but if you go hitter heavy and snag him as your SP1, you might not be all too disappointed. He's a target for me everywhere, and should be one of the bright young pitchers in the game for years to come. Thoughts on Flaherty? Too risky for an SP1? Nola was going right around 55-70 last year, and I'm seeing a lot of similarities here. Not saying he will jump to a top 5 SP, but I think top 10-15 is feasible. I see value here on draft day. 

 

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To me he has the same potential Nola did last year, I'm all in.

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I agree completely.  And you're right- all the peripheral stats point to a fair chance to be a legit staff ace and top 15 pitcher.  

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I heard someone mention this on another post but look at the difference in ADPs from Buehler and Flaherty. Buehler at 38 is high but I love the upside and sky high potential there. Now look at Flaherty at 64 and your getting a guy who is almost on Buehlers level but your getting him at a discount. The cherry on top is that he pitched 182 total innings last year so he could go 200 if he's healthy. 

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I commented on his thread last year that I thought he was going to emerge as the top pitcher from his high school--which was pretty bold at the time!

He really does have so many of the things you look for, as far as a guy to take a legit breakout and build on it.

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1 hour ago, Ry34No said:

I heard someone mention this on another post but look at the difference in ADPs from Buehler and Flaherty. Buehler at 38 is high but I love the upside and sky high potential there. Now look at Flaherty at 64 and your getting a guy who is almost on Buehlers level but your getting him at a discount. The cherry on top is that he pitched 182 total innings last year so he could go 200 if he's healthy. 

I saw something similar, couldn’t agree more. Barring health I think both of them will be atop the NL in a few years once the kershaws and Scherzers of the world age a bit more. As of now though, it’s hard to argue the value that Flaherty offers in this year’s draft. Like you said, will probably have less of an innings limit too. Praying he doesn’t creep up a few rounds come March. I may punt pitching altogether rounds 1-5 and end up with a Flaherty/Taillon/Clevinger combo. You could do a lot worse imo

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Traded Kluber for him in dynasty. Just to show how high I value him (not looking for advice, it already happened).

 

I think 60-70 percent chance I lose the trade for 2019, but reasonably sure I win it 2020 and beyond. And think 30-40 percent chance he beats Kluber this year (which would likely be a top 10 showing).

 

He had 223 K across 182.2 combined innings last year. Sign me up.

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On 1/29/2019 at 3:34 PM, Ry34No said:

I heard someone mention this on another post but look at the difference in ADPs from Buehler and Flaherty. Buehler at 38 is high but I love the upside and sky high potential there. Now look at Flaherty at 64 and your getting a guy who is almost on Buehlers level but your getting him at a discount. The cherry on top is that he pitched 182 total innings last year so he could go 200 if he's healthy. 

 

Buehler at 38?  WOW.  Aren't there people that subscribe to the theory that if a pitcher had a huge bump in innings one season that he flops the next?

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6 hours ago, B&F said:

 

Buehler at 38?  WOW.  Aren't there people that subscribe to the theory that if a pitcher had a huge bump in innings one season that he flops the next?

Could be the case. But Buehler looks to be a phenom. His numbers were as good as any pitcher down the stretch. I wouldn't bank on more than 160-170 innings this year though. 

Edited by Ry34No
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On 1/29/2019 at 3:34 PM, Ry34No said:

The cherry on top is that he pitched 182 total innings last year so he could go 200 if he's healthy. 

I love Flaherty and would be happy to get him on all my  teams, but 200 innings is not a reasonable expectation this year imo. Last year only 13 pitchers reached 200, and even if he makes 32 starts he would still need to average over 6 innings per start. If he makes a more realistic 30 or 31 starts he'd need to average 6.5+ innings per start, and that isn't happening.

 

I would draft him expecting somewhere near the ~170ish inning range.

Edited by cs3
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5 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

 

 

Jesus. 

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On 1/29/2019 at 5:27 PM, azeri98 said:

To me he has the same potential Nola did last year, I'm all in.

 

this.  hes gonna be my SP1 in several redrafts

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5 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

 

 

so should we just ignore the sinker, slider and curve?

 

Flaherty is 13th best swinging strike rate, and 10th best rate of contact outside the zone. Scherzer, Corbin, Bauer, Snell are in the top 10 contact outside of zone....this causes soft/weak contact, so its no surprise these studs are in the top 10 for this stat

 

his bigest drawback was command last year, but it was up from the minors.  so if he improves there you may have a real SP1 and possibly top 10 pitcher on your hands.

Edited by jfazz23
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1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

 

so should we just ignore the sinker, slider and curve?

 

Flaherty is 13th best swinging strike rate, and 10th best rate of contact outside the zone. Scherzer, Corbin, Bauer, Snell are in the top 10 contact outside of zone....this causes soft/weak contact, so its no surprise these studs are in the top 10 for this stat

 

his bigest drawback was command last year, but it was up from the minors.  so if he improves there you may have a real SP1 and possibly top 10 pitcher on your hands.

The tweet was addressing his fastball. Do with it what you will.

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He throws to the best catcher in the world. I think they can find a way to sequence his pitches in order to give him his best chance at success.

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8 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

The tweet was addressing his fastball. Do with it what you will.

 

His slider, his best pitch, looks exactly like his fastball coming out of his hand.

 

That is why his fastball isn't getting hit as much as others like it.  Context.

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10 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

 

so should we just ignore the sinker, slider and curve?

 

Flaherty is 13th best swinging strike rate, and 10th best rate of contact outside the zone. Scherzer, Corbin, Bauer, Snell are in the top 10 contact outside of zone....this causes soft/weak contact, so its no surprise these studs are in the top 10 for this stat

 

his bigest drawback was command last year, but it was up from the minors.  so if he improves there you may have a real SP1 and possibly top 10 pitcher on your hands.

Tanaka has a superior SwStr rate with 2 plus secondary pitches and similar fastball Velo + much better command/control. They both have flat fastballs.They both have release points that are so similar between their FB and secondary pitches that helps them play up 

 

So you can't ignore questions about FB. Since Jack is being drafted way before Tanaka.

 

Jacks FB was a plus pitch in results last year. The Tweet is simply questioning if the results off 4 Seamers will maintain. What he ignores his Jack induces a very high number pop ups with his FB.  There is zero apperication for sequencing and location.  Simply put Jack throws his otherwise un-remarkble FB with extreme confidence.  Challenges them up, changes eye level all the time. He trusts his ability to keep them off balanced due to release point.

 

While Tanaka hides his and when he throws it. He stays low mostly. Which players right into a hitters swing path. Which has a lot to do with his poor results off the pitch along with its flatness. The actual HR/FB difference between Tanaka and Jack was not much. 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Slatykamora

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3 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Tanaka has a superior SwStr rate with 2 plus secondary pitches and similar fastball Velo + much better command/control. They both have flat fastballs.They both have release points that are so similar between their FB and secondary pitches that helps them play up 

 

So you can't ignore questions about FB. Since Jack is being drafted way before Tanaka.

 

Jacks FB was a plus pitch in results last year. The Tweet is simply questioning if the results off 4 Seamers will maintain. What he ignores his Jack induces a very high number pop ups with his FB.  There is zero apperication for sequencing and location.  Simply put Jack throws his otherwise un-remarkble FB with extreme confidence.  Challenges them up, changes eye level all the time. He trusts his ability to keep them off balanced due to release point.

 

While Tanaka hides his and when he throws it. He stays low mostly. Which players right into a hitters swing path. Which has a lot to do with his poor results off the pitch along with its flatness. The actual HR/FB difference between Tanaka and Jack was not much. 

 

 

 

 

 

flaherty has a better 4 seem than tanaka.  plus tanaka pitches in the AL east and his biggest problem is consistency  and health. (i think his consistency ties to health too)

 

when hes been healthy hes been a borderline SP1 pitcher.  His K rate was also never close to Flaherty's 

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