Motown_Magic

Jack Flaherty 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2019 season will be locked on 2019-11-28. Please finish any 2019 discussions here, and take any 2020 outlook discussions to the 2020 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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27 minutes ago, Gandalfthecat said:

If he's "hot garbage" then there's what? 20 useable pitchers in all of fantasy baseball?

 

Do your league mates a favour and drop him. 

I'd say that number is much less than 20

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Lowered his ERA from 4.90 to 4.41 in his last 2 starts and even though 1 came against SF I'm very encouraged by the results because he's busted out the slider again.  (He'd only been using it ~26% of the time and used it 30% last season.)

 

7/7 vs SF - 30% sliders (25/83) - 8 swinging strikes, 4 called strikes, 2 balls in play

7/16 vs PIT - 36% sliders (36/101) - 8 swinging strikes, 6 called strikes, 2 balls in play

 

 

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36 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

Lowered his ERA from 4.90 to 4.41 in his last 2 starts and even though 1 came against SF I'm very encouraged by the results because he's busted out the slider again.  (He'd only been using it ~26% of the time and used it 30% last season.)

 

7/7 vs SF - 30% sliders (25/83) - 8 swinging strikes, 4 called strikes, 2 balls in play

7/16 vs PIT - 36% sliders (36/101) - 8 swinging strikes, 6 called strikes, 2 balls in play

 

 

I was so close on giving up on him until I watched that start, and this start he looked fantastic as well. I think his pitch mix is the biggest thing for him. Usually 5th/6th inning his selection gets stale and I think that really hurts him. 

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37 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

I was so close on giving up on him until I watched that start, and this start he looked fantastic as well. I think his pitch mix is the biggest thing for him. Usually 5th/6th inning his selection gets stale and I think that really hurts him. 

 

Agreed. So many times he's cruising through 5 innings with 5+ K's and then you tune back in and his final line is 5 2/3, 7 H, 4 ER, 7 K's.

He either needs to develop a third pitch or use his fastballs essentially as different pitches by elevating the 4-seamer and keeping the 2-seamer down or even just being able to command the 2-seamer to both sides of the plate.

If not, he'll continue to keep getting into trouble the 3rd time through the order and will probably be a 5-6 inning pitcher like Odorizzi. Which is fine, but well short of his potential.

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He's been on a roll here lately and I almost never sit my starters, but I'm nervous about this one tonight against the Astros.  Anyone starting him?

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14 minutes ago, DFWSooner said:

He's been on a roll here lately and I almost never sit my starters, but I'm nervous about this one tonight against the Astros.  Anyone starting him?

 

Didn't he go like 4.1 innings last time out? Wouldn't call that a role. 

However, I'm starting him. Sometimes you gotta dance with the ones that brung you. 

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18 minutes ago, Gandalfthecat said:

 

Didn't he go like 4.1 innings last time out? Wouldn't call that a role. 

However, I'm starting him. Sometimes you gotta dance with the ones that brung you. 

Jack has a 4-6 record, a 4.2+ ERA and a 1.23 WHIP.  we may have drafted him early, but he certainly hasnt brought us very far....

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37 minutes ago, DFWSooner said:

He's been on a roll here lately and I almost never sit my starters, but I'm nervous about this one tonight against the Astros.  Anyone starting him?

You should be nervous, he’s not very good. And what is this “roll” you speak of? 

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Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, phisouza33 said:

You should be nervous, he’s not very good. And what is this “roll” you speak of? 

 

Flaherty's Stats (last 30 days)

2.35 era

1.22 WHIP

28 Ks (in 23 IP)

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers
Knock it off with the vituperation.

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His whip is still a little high indicating that he's probably getting good luck to counteract the bad luck he got early in the year. The truth is he's probably somewhere in between the Flaherty of last year and the Flaherty of this year. I project him as a 3.8ish ERA, 1.2 WHIP 9.5-10K/9 kind of guy, at least if I was going to draft him next year that's what I would expect.

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49 minutes ago, mike11 said:

His whip is still a little high indicating that he's probably getting good luck to counteract the bad luck he got early in the year. The truth is he's probably somewhere in between the Flaherty of last year and the Flaherty of this year. I project him as a 3.8ish ERA, 1.2 WHIP 9.5-10K/9 kind of guy, at least if I was going to draft him next year that's what I would expect.

 

I think a 3.8 + era with high strikeout numbers is a pretty solid pitcher in this 5 / 6 inning outings and juiced ball environment. We all probably need to reset our baseline a bit on what qualifies as a good pitcher. 

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1 hour ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Flaherty's Stats (last 30 days)

2.35 era

1.22 WHIP

28 Ks (in 23 IP)

these numbers put him at SP 72 over the same time span.  i get pitchers arent what they used to be, but hes still a SP5/6 at best.

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6 minutes ago, herschel said:

these numbers put him at SP 72 over the same time span.  i get pitchers arent what they used to be, but hes still a SP5/6 at best.

I'm not going to back check your numbers, but you can't honestly believe he's SP 72. 

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1 minute ago, jmcampbe11 said:

I'm not going to back check your numbers, but you can't honestly believe he's SP 72. 

i believe the numbers.  in 4 out of his last 8 starts, he has failed to throw 5ip.  he is frustrating to own, because ive watched a bunch of those games and he seems to be cruising for 3-4 innings and then just totally runs out of gas.  i think all things considered, he is a back end starter in 12 team leagues (SP 50-60).

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I'll be targeting him next season.  I won't pay much though.

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2 minutes ago, herschel said:

i believe the numbers.  in 4 out of his last 8 starts, he has failed to throw 5ip.  he is frustrating to own, because ive watched a bunch of those games and he seems to be cruising for 3-4 innings and then just totally runs out of gas.  i think all things considered, he is a back end starter in 12 team leagues (SP 50-60).

 

And you also believe the numbers of all 71 pitchers ahead of him? It sure seems like you're putting a lot of faith in a very small sample size. At worst, I think Flaherty will be a no. 3 / 4 caliber SP in 10 team leagues next season. And IMO the difference between him and other comparable pitchers is the upside. He demonstrated in 2018 that he can be elite. So you're drafting a back end starter with the potential to be more.  

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4 minutes ago, B&F said:

I'll be targeting him next season.  I won't pay much though.

 

You shouldn't have to. I imagine you can probably get him 40 picks later then where he was drafted this year. 

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39 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

And you also believe the numbers of all 71 pitchers ahead of him? It sure seems like you're putting a lot of faith in a very small sample size. At worst, I think Flaherty will be a no. 3 / 4 caliber SP in 10 team leagues next season. And IMO the difference between him and other comparable pitchers is the upside. He demonstrated in 2018 that he can be elite. So you're drafting a back end starter with the potential to be more.  

Same argument was made going in to this season and it just didn’t happen.  That doesn’t mean it won’t happen next season, just means I won’t be paying to find out.  

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Posted (edited)

I didn't really look deep into his numbers, i just know in his last 3 starts he's only given up 2 runs with 21 Ks.  I didn't even notice that he only went 4.1 innings in his last start, but I have a lot of pitching categories so the 0 ER, 7 Ks and 14.54 K/9 helped me despite not going deep into the game.    In his two prior starts before that game he was great.  So i guess that's what I meant by "on a roll."   Not a long roll, but I was at least hoping it was a sign of better things to come. 

Edited by DFWSooner

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I have Jack in a dynasty league, and he has been disappointing. Still optimistic about his long term future though, and I believe the upside is there. 

All of that aside, I mainly just posted to comment on Fuzzy_Slippers use of the word "vituperation" in his edit of jmcampbee11's one post. Well done, sir. 

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He looked vary sharp against a strong cubs lineup. Actually took a no-no into the 6th I believe. Starting to think he might've rounded the corner (I can be an optimist, right?).

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Two potent offenses in a row, both at home though.

 

Still wary of his road starts, but he's inspiring alot of confidence right now.

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2 hours ago, crotchcrickets said:

Two potent offenses in a row, both at home though.

 

Still wary of his road starts, but he's inspiring alot of confidence right now.

@ LAD next week

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On 7/26/2019 at 12:58 PM, jmcampbe11 said:

I'm not going to back check your numbers, but you can't honestly believe he's SP 72. 

Completely believable. Starters who routinely fail to make it through 5 innings are not very valuable, even if they have a solid K%... especially when they dont have elite ratios (which they almost never do, because if their whip was better they would be going deeper into games)

SP5/6 seems pretty accurate. I certainly would NOT feel good about my fantasy rotation if he was my 3rd or even 4th best starter

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I think y'all are overthinking this.  Roto rankings of pitchers over 30 days are virtually meaningless.  The amount of noise that comes with opponent matchups and the luck associated with the W category drowns out almost all of the signal.  Batters at least play most everyday, so the chances they play 25-30 games all against weak opponents are low.  Starters can, depending on how they line up, entirely miss the tough opponents.  Meanwhile the W category represents 25% of their production, and because wins are so scarce, just 2 of them in a month can push them way past much better pitchers who happened not to get their wins in that particular 30 game sample.

With that said: Flaherty is certainly better than an SP5/6, not because he's great -- he's not -- but because there's not many better pitchers to put ahead of him in this hostile pitching environment.  I'm sure we can all cherry-pick some names ranked below him on PitcherList's latest top 100 that we'd put ahead of him, but can you find 30 or 40 of those names?  I certainly can't.  Just because you wouldn't feel good about him as your SP3/4 doesn't mean he's an SP5/6.  It may just mean that there's not that much good pitching out there, and what talent is out there isn't evenly distributed in your league.

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