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En Votto Veritas

Cesar Hernandez 2019 Outlook

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2015 (452 AB): .272/.339, 1 HR, 35 RBI, 57 R, 19 SB (first full season in MLB at age 25)

2016 (547 AB): .294/.371, 6 HR, 39 RBI, 67 R, 17 SB

2017 (511 AB): .294/.373, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 85 R, 15 SB

2018 (605 AB): .253/.356, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 91 R, 19 SB

 

Obviously 2018 seems like an odd departure from 2016 and 2017.  One important note when looking at his 2018 season is that he played through an injury to his foot resulting from a foul ball.  Here are his splits:

1st half: 359 AB, .270/.378, 8 HR, 31 RBI, 63 R, 14 SB (2 CS)

2nd half: 246 AB, .228/.324, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 28 R, 5 SB (4 CS)

We can see that his first half, prior to the foot injury, closely resembles his previous two seasons.  In fact, he matched the stats of the previous seasons in the first half of 2018.  The second half saw his newfound power remain but all speed lost.

 

So what does 2019 hold for Cesar?

- Leading off for PHI with Segura, Cutch, Hoskins, and Williams/Franco/Herrera behind him.

- Healthy.

- Offers an impressive 10-13% BB% and a respectable 19-21% K%.

 

And yet, the projections for him are relatively negative, I have eyeballed an average from over 7 sources:

2019 projections eyeball average: 550 AB, .265/.355, 11 HR, 53 RBI, 77 R, 15 SB

This is reflected in his ADP; he's being drafted after Moncada, Dozier, Odor.  NFBC ADP is currently #180 making him the 15th(!) 2B off the board.

 

I think--if he stays healthy and continues to lead off--he should easily surpass those projections.  I see him for:

600 AB, .285/.370, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 100 R, 20+ SB

 

FanGraphs Page

BaseballReference Page

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Highly underrated guy, especially OBP leagues. I think your projection is not far fetched by any means. Batting in front of Segura, Cutch, Hoskins and then soon to be Harper. The Phillies are going to be fun to watch this year if everyone stays healthy. 

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The increase in hrs last year seems to have been due to a 9% increase in his fb% from 2017 and more than a 12% increase from his 2014-2016 seasons.  This also caused his babip to drop to .315 which was the lowest of his career and more than 30 points lower than his 4 previous years.  So clearly he just started hitting the ball in the air more, which ended in some more hrs but at he cost of his average.  His .350+ babip marks of were carrying his batting average from 2015-2017, so he seemed to live off groundball singles and line drives, but moved away from that a bit last year.  

 

I’ve always thought he was underrated, especially in Obp leagues, but don’t really see him eclipsing the 15 hr mark again unless he sacrifices his average again as well.  He simply doesn’t have enough power(career .098 iso).

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I’m my yahoo OBP league he finished 9th among 2B eligible players. Guys in front of him were Jo Ram, Carpenter, Baez, Merrifield, Rizzo, Muncy, Shaw, and Scooter. Nearly every one of those guys are going to cost you quite a bit more than what you’ll pay for Cesar. I’m targeting him hard this year as he paid off for me last year and people still haven’t seemed to catch on. 

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7 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

2015 (452 AB): .272/.339, 1 HR, 35 RBI, 57 R, 19 SB (first full season in MLB at age 25)

2016 (547 AB): .294/.371, 6 HR, 39 RBI, 67 R, 17 SB

2017 (511 AB): .294/.373, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 85 R, 15 SB

2018 (605 AB): .253/.356, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 91 R, 19 SB

 

Obviously 2018 seems like an odd departure from 2016 and 2017.  One important note when looking at his 2018 season is that he played through an injury to his foot resulting from a foul ball.  Here are his splits:

1st half: 359 AB, .270/.378, 8 HR, 31 RBI, 63 R, 14 SB (2 CS)

2nd half: 246 AB, .228/.324, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 28 R, 5 SB (4 CS)

We can see that his first half, prior to the foot injury, closely resembles his previous two seasons.  In fact, he matched the stats of the previous seasons in the first half of 2018.  The second half saw his newfound power remain but all speed lost.

 

So what does 2019 hold for Cesar?

- Leading off for PHI with Segura, Cutch, Hoskins, and Williams/Franco/Herrera behind him.

- Healthy.

- Offers an impressive 10-13% BB% and a respectable 19-21% K%.

 

And yet, the projections for him are relatively negative, I have eyeballed an average from over 7 sources:

2019 projections eyeball average: 550 AB, .265/.355, 11 HR, 53 RBI, 77 R, 15 SB

This is reflected in his ADP; he's being drafted after Moncada, Dozier, Odor.  NFBC ADP is currently #180 making him the 15th(!) 2B off the board.

 

I think--if he stays healthy and continues to lead off--he should easily surpass those projections.  I see him for:

600 AB, .285/.370, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 100 R, 20+ SB

 

FanGraphs Page

BaseballReference Page

Love it! He played with a broken foot for half a season.  I am hoping for the projections you are predicting.  Just traded for him in my dynasty league for a minor leaguer. 

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On 1/30/2019 at 2:57 AM, Johnny289 said:

Love it! He played with a broken foot for half a season.  I am hoping for the projections you are predicting.  Just traded for him in my dynasty league for a minor leaguer. 

Yeah wasn't just 'an injury' as referenced by OP...dudes' foot was broke.

He seems massively underrated yet? But I am not at all certain he's leading off either. There's still plenty of profit with him hitting 7th or 8th. I am hoping with a healthy foot he will be running more. A lot to like in this profile--esp if the swing alterations he made last year stick!

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58 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Yeah wasn't just 'an injury' as referenced by OP...dudes' foot was broke.

He seems massively underrated yet? But I am not at all certain he's leading off either. There's still plenty of profit with him hitting 7th or 8th. I am hoping with a healthy foot he will be running more. A lot to like in this profile--esp if the swing alterations he made last year stick!

 

Eh. I love Hernandez more than most, but I’m not as confident that he’s a player you’re going to get value on if he’s hitting 7th or 8th. I think he’s a huge steal, but I do think that’s contingent on him keeping the lead-off spot. 

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7 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Eh. I love Hernandez more than most, but I’m not as confident that he’s a player you’re going to get value on if he’s hitting 7th or 8th. I think he’s a huge steal, but I do think that’s contingent on him keeping the lead-off spot. 

Yeah, I think a healthy Cesar is the best option for that lead-off spot, but we'll have to see how it shakes out too. Roster resource shows Cutch there, but I've seen nothing reported about what sort of order Gabe is thinking of trotting out--things still can hinge on Harper coming to town, I suppose.

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From CBS:

Manager Gabe Kapler labeled Hernandez as "an ideal leadoff hitter" earlier in spring training, Meghan Montemurro of The Athletic reports.

Hernandez has ranked either first or second on the Phillies in starts out of the leadoff role in the past four seasons.

Hernandez's status as the incumbent looks like it may be enough to keep him atop the order to begin the season, but he may not have a long leash if he struggles in the early going now that there are some more appealing alternatives available than in years past.

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12 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

From CBS:

Manager Gabe Kapler labeled Hernandez as "an ideal leadoff hitter" earlier in spring training, Meghan Montemurro of The Athletic reports.

Hernandez has ranked either first or second on the Phillies in starts out of the leadoff role in the past four seasons.

Hernandez's status as the incumbent looks like it may be enough to keep him atop the order to begin the season, but he may not have a long leash if he struggles in the early going now that there are some more appealing alternatives available than in years past.

 

Hernandez has a great, low-key skill-set for the lead-off. Speed and OBP. I love him there, and hear the trends going in that direction. I'm thinking he'll be a good ADP value. 

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Interesting if it's true. So if the rumors are true and Harper signs what would the batting order be?  They're flush with high OBP guys in McCutcheon/Realmuto/Hoskins/Hernandez/Segura, 3 of whom would be reasonable MLB leadoff hitters.

Edited by Baur10

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28 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

Interesting if it's true. So if the rumors are true and Harper signs what would the batting order be?  They're flush with high OBP guys in McCutcheon/Realmuto/Hoskins/Hernandez/Segura, 3 of whom would be reasonable MLB leadoff hitters.

 

Cesar

Segura

Harper

Realmulto

Hoskins

Cutch

Franco

Herrera

 

Yikes.  Looking over ZiPS projections, and this is  kinda crazy, not a single hitter here would have a projected OBP under .300.  You could swap Cutch and Cesar, but you'd sacrifice a fair amount of speed in doing so and I feel like Cutch is a better pure hitter, someone I'd want coming up in the 6 spot with these guys ahead of him.

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It took Cesar over 700 PA to get to 15 HR and 19 SB, both of which are career highs. I'm only in on him in OBP leagues, because if he has any regression in the power or speed departments he becomes very ordinary in Average leagues. He should be a plus source for R regardless but that's it. InOBP leagues I will pay a premium with a floor of plus OPB, plus R, just not sure its worth it in standard leagues. Is there any reason to expect the speed or power to improve this year?

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2 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

It took Cesar over 700 PA to get to 15 HR and 19 SB, both of which are career highs. I'm only in on him in OBP leagues, because if he has any regression in the power or speed departments he becomes very ordinary in Average leagues. He should be a plus source for R regardless but that's it. InOBP leagues I will pay a premium with a floor of plus OPB, plus R, just not sure its worth it in standard leagues. Is there any reason to expect the speed or power to improve this year?

 

Power, no.  He likely has a 15 HR ceiling.  Speed, on the other hand, he has room to grow.  He played through the second half of last year with a broken foot which curbed his speed so looking at the first half where he stole 14 with only 2 CS, he could push 30 in a full healthy season.  I'm not betting on it; I projected 20+ in the OP, but he definitely can swipe more than 20 bags pretty easily if healthy.  Now in a standard 5X5 one might consider Rosario a better choice as he'll likely provide more speed, even Polanco is an interesting later round SS for standard leagues, but I don't think Cesar gets a fair shake.

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Grade 1 Hip Strain, suffered as he was running the bases. Pretty big bummer here, as he might not even be ready for the regular season--though that is largely speculative. Either way he's gotta drop, and likely significantly in drafts. There also exists a real threat that Kingery does quite well with his reps and creates a situation where he runs away with the gig...also a very speculative scenario, but the kid has the kinda talent to do that.

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Last I heard, Kapler is still expecting him to be ready for Opening Day. Has anyone heard anything to the contrary?

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Cesar Hernandez 2B | PHI

Phillies' Cesar Hernandez: Won't be leadoff man

Manager Gabe Kapler said he expects Hernandez to slot in as the Phillies' No. 6 or 7 hitter once the regular season begins, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports. Kapler's batting order may have some fluidity as the season unfolds, but Hernandez's move to the bottom half of the lineup to begin the campaign represents a sizable blow to his fantasy value. His run-scoring and base-stealing opportunities in particular will likely take a massive hit since he won't have the luxury of batting in front of the stellar quartet of Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura and J. T. Realmuto. The Phillies plan to use Andrew McCutchen as their table setter, with Kapler citing the veteran outfielder's combination of on-base skills and power as the main reasoning behind the decision.

CBS Sports

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I thought he had a much better year last year.  Overall it wasn't that great.  I don't think he's going to be on my team for long.                                                                                         

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7 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

I thought he had a much better year last year.  Overall it wasn't that great.  I don't think he's going to be on my team for long.                                                                                         

He played the 2nd half of the season with a broken foot. First half he had a .378 OBP, 63 R and 14 SB.

But not being the leadoff hitter kills his value. Really if they’re not going to hit him 1st or 2nd, they should bat him 9th. With his skill set he needs to hit in front of good hitters, not after them.

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18 minutes ago, JettNS said:

Anything here? Looks like he is settling in

Only if he leads off every game

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Quietly continues to produce quality numbers...has settled into the 6th spot in line-up, even has hit 5th as well recently.

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He's been solid, very consistent.  Not much in HR, RBI, R, or SB production.  He's been as good as one could hope him to be, but even at that he's not going to have weeks where he produces a ton of value.  Just solidly consistent.

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I would assume he takes over the leadoff spot of the Phillies now. Could be a big boost of production coming soon. 

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