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Giancarlo Stanton 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2019 season will be locked on 2019-11-28. Please finish any 2019 discussions here, and take any 2020 outlook discussions to the 2020 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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The big man's first season in NY was deemed a disappointment. While it was certainly down from his monster 59 HR, 1.007 OPS season he put up in 2017, it was still a very solid season. 

 

Does he rebound to .280 45+ HR 120 RBI .950 OPS? When you look at his career, it's hard not to see 2017 as a clear outlier. But when you look at that Yankee lineup, in that stadium, after a year of getting accommodated to his new situation, it's hard not to dream.

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.271 average with 49 bombs and 220+ R/RBI. I really like him where he's currently going in drafts this year.

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Dude needs to make contact when there's a runner on 3rd with less than two outs a priority. Could've had 50 more RBI last year. 

Yankees lost at least 5 games because of his failure at this. 10 losses as a team due to the Ks of everyone else.

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23 hours ago, this guy right here said:

Dude needs to make contact when there's a runner on 3rd with less than two outs a priority. Could've had 50 more RBI last year. 

Yankees lost at least 5 games because of his failure at this. 10 losses as a team due to the Ks of everyone else.

He hit .296 with a runner on 3rd and less than 2, so it seemed like he did okay... he only had 43 PA in this type of situation, had 8 hits and 10 sacrifices, considering he was intentionally walked 3 times and HBP once in this situation that he hashed really had 39 PA chances, even if you blame his other walks on not being aggressive enough, that's 18 successful outcomes out of 39... 46%... that's pretty good.

 

His issue might be more with runners in scoring position in general... with RISP he hit a disastrous .241 Avg, .701 OPS, .139 IOS, and 37% K Rate.... WOOF!

Edited by StevieStats
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I feel that he was pressing a bit last season with a new team and in front of much brighter spotlights...etc. 

 

He should rebound on the HR to 45+, but the BA will be more or less the same as his career avg. .268.

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I think he gets back in the 40 home run club easily this year. I always wonder though why he can't ever have an elite OBP. I know the answer is probably he K's too much but he walks a good amount and is a feared hitter in a feared lineup where he could take pitches. Its strange to think with the season he had in 2017 that he only had a .376 OBP. 

Edited by Ry34No

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2018

Home: .229/.311/.468/.779, 20 HR, 104 wRC+

Away: .300/.374/.547/.921, 18 HR, 147 wRC+

He gets his HR in the Bronx, but balls in play seriously detrimental there. His walks and strikeouts are pretty even home/away, his hard hit rate is great 40+ both home/away... but oddly has a .262 BABIP at home and .400 BABIP on the road...

Is it just bad luck? Or with less real estate in that little league park are his hard hit balls going to continue to be at guys? I'm baffled.

So I pulled up fangraphs park factors and Yankee stadium is a great HR park, but everything outside of that suffers. Interesting. But... good news is that Stanton's biggest detriment last year (home park) should theoretically be a strong suit.

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23 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

2018

Home: .229/.311/.468/.779, 20 HR, 104 wRC+

Away: .300/.374/.547/.921, 18 HR, 147 wRC+

He gets his HR in the Bronx, but balls in play seriously detrimental there. His walks and strikeouts are pretty even home/away, his hard hit rate is great 40+ both home/away... but oddly has a .262 BABIP at home and .400 BABIP on the road...

Is it just bad luck? Or with less real estate in that little league park are his hard hit balls going to continue to be at guys? I'm baffled.

So I pulled up fangraphs park factors and Yankee stadium is a great HR park, but everything outside of that suffers. Interesting. But... good news is that Stanton's biggest detriment last year (home park) should theoretically be a strong suit.

 

pressure of the home fans and boo'ing? Maybe home #'s rise significantly this year now that he's settled in?

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a .400 BABIP on the road looks like a regression candidate

 

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4 minutes ago, jb_power said:

a .400 BABIP on the road looks like a regression candidate

 

 

half the balls in play are HR's :D

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His numbers based on his batting order position also fluctuated last season.  Significantly better when he batted cleanup as opposed to 2nd or 3rd in the batting order.

 

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He’s a bad hitter.  I’ll get flamed but he’s a close your eyes and swing out of your shoes type bat.  Congrats on your 40 homers you’ll connect on.  Guys like him thrive on feasting in front of 14 fans in low pressure environments like Miami.  NY eats dudes like this alive.  His at bats vs any pitcher with a pulse are a sorry a** sight to behold.  Yankees got dumped a terrible deal by Marlins.  He’ll run into his .250/40/90 at least in fantasy which is all we care about.  But those Miami numbers aren’t ever coming back again.  He’d have to get traded to a team like Rays again to produce like that. 

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On 2/13/2019 at 1:10 PM, jb_power said:

a .400 BABIP on the road looks like a regression candidate

 

 

Believe he was leading the league in infield hits as late as early-August.

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On 2/13/2019 at 11:03 PM, Cmilne23 said:

He’s a bad hitter.  I’ll get flamed but he’s a close your eyes and swing out of your shoes type bat.  Congrats on your 40 homers you’ll connect on.  Guys like him thrive on feasting in front of 14 fans in low pressure environments like Miami.  NY eats dudes like this alive.  His at bats vs any pitcher with a pulse are a sorry a** sight to behold.  Yankees got dumped a terrible deal by Marlins.  He’ll run into his .250/40/90 at least in fantasy which is all we care about.  But those Miami numbers aren’t ever coming back again.  He’d have to get traded to a team like Rays again to produce like that. 

 

This is exactly how i feel about him.  His swing is atrocious and good pitchers make him look like an absolute fool.  Sure, he mashes the ball and will always hit 30+ home runs if he’s healthy but he’s never hitting 50+ again and while he could hit 40 I don’t think he’ll do it more than once or twice for the rest of his career.  

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Probably like the worst 38-100-100 year ever.

 

Six-year low walk rate. Fifth highest strikeout rate in the league. Career high GDP. Doesn't steal. And he's a DH!

 

Situational splits, terrible. The only reason the counting stats looked were because he had a career high in plate appearances on a loaded team. 

q75RNlM.jpg

 

 

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On 2/13/2019 at 8:03 PM, Cmilne23 said:

He’s a bad hitter.  I’ll get flamed but he’s a close your eyes and swing out of your shoes type bat.  Congrats on your 40 homers you’ll connect on.  Guys like him thrive on feasting in front of 14 fans in low pressure environments like Miami.  NY eats dudes like this alive.  His at bats vs any pitcher with a pulse are a sorry a** sight to behold.  Yankees got dumped a terrible deal by Marlins.  He’ll run into his .250/40/90 at least in fantasy which is all we care about.  But those Miami numbers aren’t ever coming back again.  He’d have to get traded to a team like Rays again to produce like that. 

And this right here may be the hottest take of all time! 

Using actual data and numbers, please explain what exactly it is that makes Stanton a "bad hitter", or makes his at bats a "sorry a** sight to behold".

Career OPS over .900

Career OBP over .350

Career wRC+ over 140

Career batting average .268

 

Oh and as Yankee last year in what you must think was a godawful season, he was still 27% better than league average as a hitter. 

 

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On 2/13/2019 at 8:03 PM, Cmilne23 said:

He’s a bad hitter.  I’ll get flamed but he’s a close your eyes and swing out of your shoes type bat.  Congrats on your 40 homers you’ll connect on.  Guys like him thrive on feasting in front of 14 fans in low pressure environments like Miami.  NY eats dudes like this alive.  His at bats vs any pitcher with a pulse are a sorry a** sight to behold.  Yankees got dumped a terrible deal by Marlins.  He’ll run into his .250/40/90 at least in fantasy which is all we care about.  But those Miami numbers aren’t ever coming back again.  He’d have to get traded to a team like Rays again to produce like that. 

Reminds me of a post someone made in 2017

"Posted June 27, 2017How a guy with so much power and athleticism can look SO bad at the plate so often is beyond me.  I dont think he is ever going to put up that "wow" season. "

 

I called this poster our at the time too. He was on pace to hit 40 home runs when he said that. He went on to hit 59

 

Pretty great that a disapointing season from stanto is 100+ RBI and runs, 266 average and 38 bombs. Two seasons in a row with 158 games. Still in his 20s. I dont know, I feel pretty good about owning him this year, certainly better in an OBP, SLG, or OPS league, but great in standard too.  Great 2nd round pick for me. Maybe you can find someone better, but could do a lot worse than his numbers from last year, a "down year"

Edited by brockpapersizer
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I get what Cmilne was alluding to. Obviously, by the numbers, Stanton is an excellent hitter. But when you watch him against quality pitching you often get the sense that he has little to no chance of even making contact. The ABs are often non-competitive. Contrast that with a hitter like Judge who even though he swings and misses at near the same rate as Stanton, he has a far better eye and even if he does strike out in a given AB, the ABs almost always look competitive. 

Now the obvious response will be who cares who he puts up his stats against... after all, most good hitters accumulate the lionshare of their stats against crappy pitching. And for fantasy purposes- there really is no need to make a distinction. But when he's on your favorite team and you watch him everyday and you get into the postseason where he's no longer facing 4th and 5th starters or end of the bullpen guys... well that's where that non-competitiveness against quality pitching is a big detriment. 

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I hear you guys about his contact issues, but saying he struggles against elite pitching isn't exactly correct...

 

Career vs:

Strasburg  48AB  1.088 OPS

DeGrom    27AB   1.234 OPS

Halladay   23AB    1.016 OPS

Cliff Lee    20AB    1.035 OPS

Bumgarner 19AB    1.677 OPS

 

I am worried about his struggles at home AND his .400 BABIP on the road which will regress. I still believe that when he gets into a hot streak, not much can stop him

 

 

 

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1000 career OPS vs Kershaw, the best pitcher of the decade

If you dont want Stanton on your team, I get it. That being said, over the course of a season he finds enough good pitches to hit 40 HR rather consistently, even if he looks bad at times.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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I'm still surprised not much is being said about the masterstoke by Derek Jeter -- we'll give him the credit I guess -- of unloading 90% of Stanton's money right before the baseball free agent bubble burst.

 

The contract looks comically inflated now.

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29 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

I'm still surprised not much is being said about the masterstoke by Derek Jeter -- we'll give him the credit I guess -- of unloading 90% of Stanton's money right before the baseball free agent bubble burst.

 

The contract looks comically inflated now.

Nothing comically inflated about it. On a war per $, he was worth 33 million in a disappointing year. Not nearly as comically deflated as a contract like jose ramirez or Mookie Betts was last year honestly. I'm sure Stantons contact will lose money on the back end, but thats the nature of big contracts. You hope to get a lot of value in the beginning. 

Your wins don't count for less if you spend more. The Yankees made money last year.

Good thing the Marlins are saving that money, they really put it to good use last year and this year. Garbage org. Losing Ozuna, Yelich And Stanton to save money. If this were a fantasy league and I were commissioner id have kicked them out.  The Realumto trade was only fine because the team was already gutted.

 

If anyone wants to take bets over who has more wins in 2024 Marlins vs Yankees DM me.  I'll take the Yankees even though the Marlins will be in prime Jeter masterstroke years. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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37 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

I'm still surprised not much is being said about the masterstoke by Derek Jeter -- we'll give him the credit I guess -- of unloading 90% of Stanton's money right before the baseball free agent bubble burst.

 

The contract looks comically inflated now.

He got paid 25 MM last year, gets 26 this year and is 29 years old... gets 26 in 2020. He can opt out after 2020, if he does not, the Marlins pay the Yanks 30 million.

The rest of the deal starting in 2021 pays 29, 29, 32, 32, 32, 29, 25, then a team option for 25.

He's been worth every penny so far. The structure of the deal accounts for payroll inflation and eventual decline. Maybe it goes belly up in the future, but as of now it's been a good deal.

Based upon his skills and performance I think he would possibly get even more than this on an open market -- but we'll see what Harper and Machado sign for, two players he's been more productive than. 

Jeter got virtually nothing for him.

I've never seen such disgust for a 102/38/100 season.

 

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