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murraygd13

Joey Votto 2019 Outlook

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To say Votto struggled last year is an understatement.

 

The inevitable decline in skills that comes with age?  Or some decline, but more bad luck the reason?  The Reds lineup looks good with Suarez, Puig, Scooter, Peraza.

 

Will it be a good idea to draft Votto this year, hoping for the rebound?

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I'm still doing a lot of my research and prep for the year and hadn't gotten to digging deep on Votto until this morning. After doing so, I've come to the conclusion that his skills are not declining and that he may have had a bit of bad luck last year. First I looked at his K% and BB% and found that they were right in line with his career numbers but his ISO went way down. After seeing that, I started to look at his batted ball profile and nothing stood out to me indicating that his skills were declining. He actually had a higher line drive rate and hard hit rate than his career average and had the lowest soft hit % of his career. His plate discipline stats were also right in line with his career numbers as his SwStr% and Contact% were both better than his career averages. His BABIP, though lower than his career average, was also higher than it was in his spectacular 2017 season. 

 

So I'm actually chalking this up to the injuries he dealt with between his back and his knee. It's awfully hard to generate power when one or both of those parts of the body are not 100%. 

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He's one of my must own players for 2019 especially at the reduced price. Still led the NL in OBP once again last season and I think he rebounds this season.

Edited by Evincar
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im conflicted.  im keeping him in my OPS keep 8 keeper

 

not sure if ill be drafting him in my 5x5 redrafts yet.

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47 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

I'm still doing a lot of my research and prep for the year and hadn't gotten to digging deep on Votto until this morning. After doing so, I've come to the conclusion that his skills are not declining and that he may have had a bit of bad luck last year. First I looked at his K% and BB% and found that they were right in line with his career numbers but his ISO went way down. After seeing that, I started to look at his batted ball profile and nothing stood out to me indicating that his skills were declining. He actually had a higher line drive rate and hard hit rate than his career average and had the lowest soft hit % of his career. His plate discipline stats were also right in line with his career numbers as his SwStr% and Contact% were both better than his career averages. His BABIP, though lower than his career average, was also higher than it was in his spectacular 2017 season. 

 

So I'm actually chalking this up to the injuries he dealt with between his back and his knee. It's awfully hard to generate power when one or both of those parts of the body are not 100%. 

But back injuries for aging players never seem to improve.  Something he might deal with the rest of his career?

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1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

im conflicted.  im keeping him in my OPS keep 8 keeper

 

not sure if ill be drafting him in my 5x5 redrafts yet.

 

I'm the same- kept him in a keeper league.  League also has OPS and with 1B being thin...

 

But when he is going in redraft- beginning of the 5th in a 12 team league (#50)- I'm passing.  Too many other assets to get at that point.  If he makes it into the 7th I'd probably bite if I don't have a 1B.  Maybe it is the underlying stats that don't show a decline, but people seem to trust a bounceback more than some of the other oldies with declining production.  For the sake of my keeper league, I hope they're right...

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I haven’t given up on him either. The plate discipline is still there and he’s not an injury concern. Call it a fluke power outage year.

 

As long as he’s healthy his game will age well. I think he gets back to 30 HRs this year while giving you the same lovable AVG and OBP ratios

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In OBP leagues I'll still be all over him because he's a virtual guarantee to be top 5 in OBP. In standard, he's tough for me because he won't be dominant in any one category. He may hit .300 with 20 HR, but at 1B how valuable is that in the 4th round? Just looking at Yahoo ranks and who's around him, Votto is a tough guy to pick in standard. I can easily argue for the guys ahead of him and that the lower guys are better values.

 

Hoskins

Bellinger

Abreu

Votto

Carpenter

Aguilar

Murphy

Encarnacion

Olson

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Looking at his profile, I just dont see any red flags. The underlying metrics looks good. Batted Ball, Plate Discipline, he got unlucky with his power but his exit velocity actually went up.

And add in his quote about being bored last year and toying with pitchers, I think he's in for a big season with the reds adding so much to their offense and them possibly competing for a playoff spot. 

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On 2/9/2019 at 8:28 PM, Sidearmer said:

In OBP leagues I'll still be all over him because he's a virtual guarantee to be top 5 in OBP. In standard, he's tough for me because he won't be dominant in any one category. He may hit .300 with 20 HR, but at 1B how valuable is that in the 4th round? Just looking at Yahoo ranks and who's around him, Votto is a tough guy to pick in standard. I can easily argue for the guys ahead of him and that the lower guys are better values.

 

Hoskins

Bellinger

Abreu

Votto

Carpenter

Aguilar

Murphy

Encarnacion

Olson

 

Why in God's name would you want Hoskins or Abreu over Votto

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On 2/9/2019 at 5:28 PM, Sidearmer said:

In OBP leagues I'll still be all over him because he's a virtual guarantee to be top 5 in OBP. In standard, he's tough for me because he won't be dominant in any one category. He may hit .300 with 20 HR, but at 1B how valuable is that in the 4th round? Just looking at Yahoo ranks and who's around him, Votto is a tough guy to pick in standard. I can easily argue for the guys ahead of him and that the lower guys are better values.

 

Well, to be fair anyone can argue anything, the point is that some arguments are better than others. 

You say that Votto "won't be dominant in any one category" indicating that your argument centers around a 1B (or perhaps any player) being dominant in a category.  But then you say that the following guys are better values, in spite of the fact that no one is dominant in any one category. I mean, let's do this because these guys can be grouped very easily:

Guys who will give you a slight edge in HR/RBI but will tank your BA: Hoskins, EE, Olson.

Guys who are literally worse than Votto in every stat: Carp, Aguilar, Murphy.

Hey look, it's Joey Votto: Votto, Abreu.

And Bellinger, who likely should be taken ahead of Votto due to upside and steals.

 

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33 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

 

Well, to be fair anyone can argue anything, the point is that some arguments are better than others. 

You say that Votto "won't be dominant in any one category" indicating that your argument centers around a 1B (or perhaps any player) being dominant in a category.  But then you say that the following guys are better values, in spite of the fact that no one is dominant in any one category. I mean, let's do this because these guys can be grouped very easily:

Guys who will give you a slight edge in HR/RBI but will tank your BA: Hoskins, EE, Olson.

Guys who are literally worse than Votto in every stat: Carp, Aguilar, Murphy.

Hey look, it's Joey Votto: Votto, Abreu.

And Bellinger, who likely should be taken ahead of Votto due to upside and steals.

 

 

Hoskins, EE, and Olson all have significant RBI / HR potential and could be dominant. Carpenter and Aguilar were dominant in HR and RBI last year. Murhpy is Votto lite playing in Coors now.

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On 2/9/2019 at 5:28 PM, Sidearmer said:

In OBP leagues I'll still be all over him because he's a virtual guarantee to be top 5 in OBP. In standard, he's tough for me because he won't be dominant in any one category. He may hit .300 with 20 HR, but at 1B how valuable is that in the 4th round? Just looking at Yahoo ranks and who's around him, Votto is a tough guy to pick in standard. I can easily argue for the guys ahead of him and that the lower guys are better values.

 

Hoskins

Bellinger

Abreu

Votto

Carpenter

Aguilar

Murphy

Encarnacion

Olson

 

It's interesting to see how 1B is getting drafted this year. I make it a priority to get one of the "top" guys before the cliff. Last season goldy, rizzo, freeman, votto were gone by the 3rd and abreu was the last one I was comfortable with and I grabbed him. This year you're seeing guys like Bellinger/Votto/Abreu being taken between rounds 4-7. Don't understand why it's happening, but I'll gladly wait on 1B if I can grab one of them that late.

 

Hoskins - Struck out a lot last year, but will likely take a step forward after having another year under his belt

Bellinger - For both hoskins and bellinger, you're really betting on upside over the older guys

Abreu - Probably the most consistent floor aside from Votto. Season was cut short last year because of a surgery and then a thigh injury. It was right as he was getting hot too.

Votto - Has the best lineup around him of these guys. Just be prepared for his 1st half tinkering lol

Carpenter - he's being drafted this high because of an unsustainable hot streak last season. He's one of my biggest avoids.

Aguilar - An interesting case. Not the worst fall back if you miss out on guys ahead of him aside from carp

Murphy - This is interesting, though I think it'd be smarter to throw him at 2B with how shallow that position is this year

Encarnacion - hard pass with the rebuilding lineup

Olson - poor man's hoskins with a worse BA

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1 hour ago, street sharks said:

 

It's interesting to see how 1B is getting drafted this year. I make it a priority to get one of the "top" guys before the cliff. Last season goldy, rizzo, freeman, votto were gone by the 3rd and abreu was the last one I was comfortable with and I grabbed him. This year you're seeing guys like Bellinger/Votto/Abreu being taken between rounds 4-7. Don't understand why it's happening, but I'll gladly wait on 1B if I can grab one of them that late.

 

Hoskins - Struck out a lot last year, but will likely take a step forward after having another year under his belt

Bellinger - For both hoskins and bellinger, you're really betting on upside over the older guys

Abreu - Probably the most consistent floor aside from Votto. Season was cut short last year because of a surgery and then a thigh injury. It was right as he was getting hot too.

Votto - Has the best lineup around him of these guys. Just be prepared for his 1st half tinkering lol

Carpenter - he's being drafted this high because of an unsustainable hot streak last season. He's one of my biggest avoids.

Aguilar - An interesting case. Not the worst fall back if you miss out on guys ahead of him aside from carp

Murphy - This is interesting, though I think it'd be smarter to throw him at 2B with how shallow that position is this year

Encarnacion - hard pass with the rebuilding lineup

Olson - poor man's hoskins with a worse BA

Carpenter is all about whether you believe in the adjustments he made. His hot streak doesn’t make 30 plus HR a fluke. His power potential is elite and has been for years.

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His eye for the ball is absolutely insane and quite possibly one of the best the game has ever seen. This stat is one of the many that make me feel even better about drafting Votto at his lowered cost this year. His current composite ADP is 58 which I consider a steal. If you play in OBP leagues even better, though I do expect his ADP would increase in those formats. Still, even if he were there around pick 40 in OBP formats I would consider that a steal. 

 

He recently talked about how he spent a lot of time this off-season analyzing his swing to pinpoint the reason for the power dip. He mentions that he discovered it was something mechanical that changed the angle of his swing as it came through the zone. Being that he's one of the better hitters we've ever seen I feel pretty confident in his ability to analyze his swing and effectively implement a change. I fully expect a bounceback season in which he puts up a line in the range of .310/.425/.550 and 90/27/95/4 with room to improve in runs and rbis given the great lineup around him.

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^ That like seems pretty close to a best case scenario for Votto this year. The thing is, in close to a full season last year he had 12 bombs and 2 steals for the whole year. At a premium power position like 1B I need more power than that. He’s 35 now so age is not on his side. Maybe he bounces back in the power department, but in the 5th round I’ll probably let someone else find out

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Fair enough, but I think it would be shocking if he didn't hit at least 20 this year because none of his metrics from last season point to a decline in skill due to his age. In fact, as talked about throughout his thread, many of them were actually at or above his career averages. He even had career bests in Hard Hit%, Soft Hit%, and GB%, while having near career year stats in O-Swing% and Contact%. The one that jumps out that I have no explanation for is his HR/FB% being a career low 9.5%. 

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This means nothing but I was scrolling thoruhg Spring stats out of boredom and found it funny Votto is hitting .100 so far yet still sports a .438 OBP.

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To the bench you go Votto!

 

I know the legs have 7 games this week but all away, vs LAD and SD, I would rather stick someone hitting in my 1B slot than hand onto to long and have him be 3/20 this week

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Still early but he's striking out this season at a higher clip than ever before. Hard hit also way down. After the season he had last year it's definitely starting to feel like it was a mistake drafting him as it seems he's just old and it's over for him. 

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He does seem to be no longer the player he was, but I can't use terms like terrible to describe Votto.  Seems wrong to disrespect him like that.

He's batting leading off tonight for the first time since 2008. 

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