colepenhagen

J.D. Martinez 2019 Outlook

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monster year.

first time last 4 years he played over 120 games

cant decide if JDM ceiling is worth more than Arenados consistency. both 3b and outfield are deep in 3 of. league

 

 

jdm shouldn't make it past pick 6

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1 hour ago, colepenhagen said:

monster year.

first time last 4 years he played over 120 games

cant decide if JDM ceiling is worth more than Arenados consistency. both 3b and outfield are deep in 3 of. league

 

 

jdm shouldn't make it past pick 6

 

I've got him at number 6 right behind Arenado at 5 mainly because with the 1st pick in my draft I always lean toward the "safer" player. Also, it's not like Arenado's consistency is all he provides. The fact that last year he drove in 20 fewer runs that any year since 2015 and still had 110 RBIs speaks volumes to the level of excellence he provides on a consistent basis. Back to JDM...I would not fault anyone for taking him over Arenado because of the type of hitter he's proven himself to be. If he stays healthy again I don't see any reason why he would not post similar numbers to last year. It's really a coin toss and a matter of personal preference when debating the two. 

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On 1/31/2019 at 11:58 AM, colepenhagen said:

monster year.

first time last 4 years he played over 120 games

cant decide if JDM ceiling is worth more than Arenados consistency. both 3b and outfield are deep in 3 of. league

 

jdm shouldn't make it past pick 6

 

In Yahoo he is pre-season listed 5th behind Trout, Mookie, Lindor and Arendo.  That seems about right.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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As a guy who had both Arenado and JD Martinez last year, JD was awesome.

 

Arenado took a smalllllll step back (hardly worth mentioning), but both are fine picks. Both will undoubtedly hit .290+, 30 HRs and 100 RBI and score 90+ runs.

 

 

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This guy is a stud. Would draft top 5. Hits the ball hard, great ballpark, great lineup, has DH going for him, showing absolutely no signs of decline (actually gotten better). Buying with confidence.

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Won't be on any of my teams.

Injury history, going in top 6 picks, plays OF for position, doesn't steal. Pass. 

 

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Yeah, love everything he does but I won't be taking him over Trout, Betts, JoRam, Lindor, Turner - steals are just too valuable. Then after than I think I'd have to give the nod to Arenado because of Coors, and I could easily be convinced of Yelich or any of the elite starters over him. Its all about speed early on I think.

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just sharing a few things I heard on the radio for those that missed it.  He was about 43rd in exit velocity. 40th in average HR distance, and mid 30s for HR apex ( I cant remember the exact numbers, but they were in that ballpark, no pun intended.)  This suggests that a lot of his HR's just scraped over the fence in many cases.  He also had a .375 .babip (again, for a guy that doesn't hit it THAT hard and isn't that fast.)  A likely decrease in HRs and AVG. coupled with the fact that he doesn't steal would make me question taking him top 7 where he seems to be going.  Still an awesome player, don't get me wrong, but not top half of round 1 awesome.

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1 hour ago, Cesare13 said:

just sharing a few things I heard on the radio for those that missed it.  He was about 43rd in exit velocity. 40th in average HR distance, and mid 30s for HR apex ( I cant remember the exact numbers, but they were in that ballpark, no pun intended.)  This suggests that a lot of his HR's just scraped over the fence in many cases.  He also had a .375 .babip (again, for a guy that doesn't hit it THAT hard and isn't that fast.)  A likely decrease in HRs and AVG. coupled with the fact that he doesn't steal would make me question taking him top 7 where he seems to be going.  Still an awesome player, don't get me wrong, but not top half of round 1 awesome.

Agreed, last year everything went right for him. Another metric you missed was ground ball rate was second highest after yelich in regards to top 24 hitters. Regression is definitely coming. I see a 290/33/95/90  with more missed games this year which is still great, and you won't lose your league because of that. But it's simply not worth a top 5 pick. 

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1 hour ago, jay2491 said:

Agreed, last year everything went right for him. Another metric you missed was ground ball rate was second highest after yelich in regards to top 24 hitters. Regression is definitely coming. I see a 290/33/95/90  with more missed games this year which is still great, and you won't lose your league because of that. But it's simply not worth a top 5 pick. 

 

3 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

just sharing a few things I heard on the radio for those that missed it.  He was about 43rd in exit velocity. 40th in average HR distance, and mid 30s for HR apex ( I cant remember the exact numbers, but they were in that ballpark, no pun intended.)  This suggests that a lot of his HR's just scraped over the fence in many cases.  He also had a .375 .babip (again, for a guy that doesn't hit it THAT hard and isn't that fast.)  A likely decrease in HRs and AVG. coupled with the fact that he doesn't steal would make me question taking him top 7 where he seems to be going.  Still an awesome player, don't get me wrong, but not top half of round 1 awesome.

The RBI's at the very least are too low.  Regression or not, he's still in a great lineup and a great park and should have no problem driving in over 100 even if his average drops that low.  That is if he stays healthy for the whole season again, which isn't that farfetched honestly since he gets to DH a good amount now.

I don't think he'll suffer that much of a regression.  This is another case, like people have said about Jose Ramirez, where it doesn't matter how far they go or how hard they are hit as long as they go over the wall.  Even if he got "lucky" with some of his HR's because of the short fence in RF, he still is going to hit there for 81 games, so I don't see why he couldn't get "lucky" at times again considering how good he is at driving the ball the opposite way.  His opposite field power is why I don't believe his power numbers will drop, even if his average drops off a bit.

I'd still take him in the first round if I didn't already own him in my keeper league, and I'm going with a .300+, 100 R, 40 HR, 120 RBI prediction.

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7 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

just sharing a few things I heard on the radio for those that missed it.  He was about 43rd in exit velocity. 40th in average HR distance, and mid 30s for HR apex ( I cant remember the exact numbers, but they were in that ballpark, no pun intended.)  This suggests that a lot of his HR's just scraped over the fence in many cases.  He also had a .375 .babip (again, for a guy that doesn't hit it THAT hard and isn't that fast.)  A likely decrease in HRs and AVG. coupled with the fact that he doesn't steal would make me question taking him top 7 where he seems to be going.  Still an awesome player, don't get me wrong, but not top half of round 1 awesome.

Shows how useless those stats are.

3 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

Even if he got "lucky" with some of his HR's because of the short fence in RF, he still is going to hit there for 81 games, so I don't see why he couldn't get "lucky" at times again considering how good he is at driving the ball the opposite way.  His opposite field power is why I don't believe his power numbers will drop, even if his average drops off a bit.

I'd still take him in the first round if I didn't already own him in my keeper league, and I'm going with a .300+, 100 R, 40 HR, 120 RBI prediction.

I agree with almost all you said except about a short porch in right.  Actually it is one of the deepest porches in baseball.  Only right down the foul line to Pesky's Pole is it shallow and it juts out immediately into one of the deepest right fields in baseball.  (Which is why Mookie plays RF instead of CF btw).  So there is only about 10 feet of "short" right field at Fenway.  To hit homers there you have to hit more line drives types of shots (aka NOT high "apex" shots which are a waste of energy and can be knocked down by the incoming ocean winds half the season) because while really deep the bullpen walls are short height wise.

Opposite in left field because of the wall of course.  Less distance and more height needed.  JD learned to adjust his swing to the park depending on if he was trying to pull or go the opposite way.  He is totally a thinking hitter and could care a fig about exit velocity and crap like that.  He just adjusts to the park and pitcher to get the job done.

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This guy is such a student of the game; he turned himself from a middling talent to one of the best hitters in baseball. That can't be measured through just exit velocity, BABIP, etc.

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As others have said, don’t try to read in to the exit velo crap. If you have watched this guy with any regularity over the last 5 seasons, you know what to do. 

He might be the best hitter in all of baseball if you don’t factor in SB’s. 

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I don't think you can possibly poke any holes in JD's hitting profile.

It's a matter of health for him. He's a top 5 hitter in baseball and he's been so for a while

 

This is wRC+ last 3 calendar years (min 1000 PA). 1st in slugging, 2nd in OPS, 4th in AVG

image.png.d4a4c2badac066420fb74dd165d48fa1.png

 

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1 hour ago, TheGreatest42 said:

Anyone worry that the back stiffness will be an impactful situation throughout the season?

 

Not too worried. This injury isn't considered to be serious as he played two days ago. You can't look into Spring training too much. Last year Betts struggled mightily throughout spring training and wound up to have an MVP season.

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