brockpapersizer

Marco Luciano- SF Giants- SS

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Everyone's excited about Victor Victor Mesa as the top international guy, but I have my eye on the upside further down the line. Top J2 signing guy

 

Last 3 top J2 signing guys

Vlad-Maitan-Wander Franco

 

2/3 became a top 5 prospect.  Luciano is years away and has a decent chance to move off SS, could be 3b or OF.  I'm  not actually sure what went wrong with Maitan, but it seems like he may have got fat and lazy for a while.  From everything I've read about Luciano, is that he's extremely humble and extremely hard working.  Every league is different, but if you invest in guys years away, he could be a big mover once he plays stateside. 

 

 

 

Mr. Fister: Who is your bet for young international prospect most likely to go all Wander Franco and make a huge leap up the board? Kristian Robinson? Marco Luciano?

 
12:31

Kiley McDaniel: Wouldn’t predict a Franco or Soto level jump from anyone, but the Luciano buzz is strong right now

 

 

Woodrow the Impaler: What could the Giants plan be for Marco Luciano in 2019? DSL?

 
12:22

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know the plan, but for top guys like him, it’s usually the AZL/GCL, with a possibility like Wander Francoto be promoted if he rakes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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On 2/1/2019 at 7:54 AM, brockpapersizer said:

Everyone's excited about Victor Victor Mesa as the top international guy, but I have my eye on the upside further down the line. Top J2 signing guy

 

Last 3 top J2 signing guys

Vlad-Maitan-Wander Franco

 

2/3 became a top 5 prospect.  Luciano is years away and has a decent chance to move off SS, could be 3b or OF.  I'm  not actually sure what went wrong with Maitan, but it seems like he may have got fat and lazy for a while.  From everything I've read about Luciano, is that he's extremely humble and extremely hard working.  Every league is different, but if you invest in guys years away, he could be a big mover once he plays stateside. 

 

 

 

Maitan put on bad weight. Got too big and lost all of his athleticism. There is a chance he rebounds, but the talk of the next Chipper Jones or some other HOFer is obviously in the rear view mirror. 

 

Marco is very intriguing to me. I took him 1.6 in my FYPD and pretty much every team left in the first round was disappointed to see him gone. He is a boom or bust pick, but I don't find that to be a bad thing. Prospects come around every year so if you know you can cut a failure quickly I consider that a positive. It is the prospects that you hold for 3+ years and then fail that are the worst. I think we will know pretty quick where Marco is on his pitch recognition and approach. The swing looks very promising. 

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1 minute ago, thezing1 said:

Maitan put on bad weight. Got too big and lost all of his athleticism. There is a chance he rebounds, but the talk of the next Chipper Jones or some other HOFer is obviously in the rear view mirror. 

 

Marco is very intriguing to me. I took him 1.6 in my FYPD and pretty much every team left in the first round was disappointed to see him gone. He is a boom or bust pick, but I don't find that to be a bad thing. Prospects come around every year so if you know you can cut a failure quickly I consider that a positive. It is the prospects that you hold for 3+ years and then fail that are the worst. I think we will know pretty quick where Marco is on his pitch recognition and approach. The swing looks very promising. 

 

Maitan has also gone through about 27 swings since he was 16.

 

Marco is really impressive but man the opportunity cost for waiting on a 17 year old is tough. 1.6 is pretty reasonable, but you know you're waiting 3-4 years at a minimum whereas guys like Larnach... or even Bart could be productive in 2. I fully support a mixed portfolio of guys. You want to have graduates almost every year, but its good to target a few of the long range guys like Marco or Orelvis too. Those are the ones that can often hit the biggest.

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3 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

 

Maitan has also gone through about 27 swings since he was 16.

 

Marco is really impressive but man the opportunity cost for waiting on a 17 year old is tough. 1.6 is pretty reasonable, but you know you're waiting 3-4 years at a minimum whereas guys like Larnach... or even Bart could be productive in 2. I fully support a mixed portfolio of guys. You want to have graduates almost every year, but its good to target a few of the long range guys like Marco or Orelvis too. Those are the ones that can often hit the biggest.

League settings are a massive factor in your prospect portfolio. I agree that a mix is really important. In general, almost everyone is a 3 year hold.  I just assume a pitcher will get TJ and be a 3-5 year investment. I targeted Puk a few years ago thinking he will move real quick and he is going on year 3 now. The youngsters that zoom up the list and hold attention, like Adell, Franco, Vlad, etc. are the ones that not only help your team, but create a crazy trading opportunity. Everybody wants the next Trout, especially when it is fresh in their minds seeing Acuna burst on the scene and Vlad getting his shot. 

 

The frustrating thing is that competitive or active leagues will be all over the J2 guys. More so now with Vlad, Franco, etc. You just aren't going to get value on those picks deep in your FYPD. So opportunity cost on the roster spot and an increase in draft capital to land those prospects that we know so little about. 

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41 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

 

Marco is very intriguing to me. I took him 1.6 in my FYPD and pretty much every team left in the first round was disappointed to see him gone. He is a boom or bust pick, but I don't find that to be a bad thing. Prospects come around every year so if you know you can cut a failure quickly I consider that a positive. It is the prospects that you hold for 3+ years and then fail that are the worst. I think we will know pretty quick where Marco is on his pitch recognition and approach. The swing looks very promising. 

 

This was my experience too. I got him at 1.8.  I agree that a lot has to do with your league. If you're in a 12 teamer with like 3-5 minor league spots, might be best to avoid these guys completely who dont have an EXTA within 3 years.

 

That being said, there's a lot to be said about upside. I was early only guys like Vlad, Tatis, Wander Franco and others because the cost was nothing but wait time for me.   Having prospects in the top 50 are nice, but you really want the guys who are going to be top 5-10 guys first and foremost.  The ones that do hit make up for the ones that don't.

 

Also a lot of these guys dont perform until late summer, it's tempting to drop, but you just have to hold. Owners in some leagues will just drop their J2 guy for someone raking in single A sometimes.

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On 2/4/2019 at 10:43 AM, brockpapersizer said:

 

This was my experience too. I got him at 1.8.  I agree that a lot has to do with your league. If you're in a 12 teamer with like 3-5 minor league spots, might be best to avoid these guys completely who dont have an EXTA within 3 years.

 

That being said, there's a lot to be said about upside. I was early only guys like Vlad, Tatis, Wander Franco and others because the cost was nothing but wait time for me.   Having prospects in the top 50 are nice, but you really want the guys who are going to be top 5-10 guys first and foremost.  The ones that do hit make up for the ones that don't.

 

Also a lot of these guys dont perform until late summer, it's tempting to drop, but you just have to hold. Owners in some leagues will just drop their J2 guy for someone raking in single A sometimes.

Funny. I wait until they start performing state side before investing and ignore J2 when they first come. This method may lose out on Vlad and Wander..but it got me Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna and Tatis. Tatis was not ranked very high initially.

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6 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Funny. I wait until they start performing state side before investing and ignore J2 when they first come. This method may lose out on Vlad and Wander..but it got me Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna and Tatis. Tatis was not ranked very high initially.

 

Kinda depends on your league depth and how j2 signings work. If there are less than 150 prospect owned that might make sense. Tatis was a J2 signing in 2016. Keith Law ranked him super high in early 2017 so I took him in my FYPD. Some guys you can wait on some you cant. In some leagues you cant wait on any of them. I think Luciano, Orelvis, and Marte seem to be the three to grab for now if your league warrants owning guys. That seems to be the order too. 

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Tatis was a 2015 IFA. https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/chicago-white-sox/white-sox-add-fernando-tatis-jr-three-other-international-players

 

Did not appear on MLB pipelines top 30 for either White Sox/Padres in 2016. 

 

 If you were able to acquire  him in 2017 its kinda proving the point.

 

A very heathly amount of IFAs are taken in FYPDs from my leagues every year.

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4 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Tatis was a 2015 IFA. https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/chicago-white-sox/white-sox-add-fernando-tatis-jr-three-other-international-players

 

Did not appear on MLB pipelines top 30 for either White Sox/Padres in 2016. 

 

 If you were able to acquire  him in 2017 its kinda proving the point.

 

A very heathly amount of IFAs are taken in FYPDs from my leagues every year.

 

I stand corrected on Tatis' J2 year, but he didn't do much in 2016 and I acquired him before the 2017 started. His numbers before I acquired him are not impressive.

 

I drafted Wander Franco and Vlad before they ever played a game, seemed to have worked out. Someone else drafted Ronny Marucio and dropped him and I scooped him up.  I'm sad to have not got George Valera in my draft last year too. Again, I wont argue your strategy doesnt work for you, but I'm confident it has to do with league depth. Once you reach a certain amount of prospects owned, the top J2 signing guys need to be owned even before they play.  Marco Luciano is the clear top one for me, and Mrte and Orelvis are up there too.  Do I think some guy who got a small bonus who is under the radar might emerge late this summer and you can swoop in to get him? Sure. Strategy of picking guys up late in season who were under the radar is great, but I dont think that necessarily means you should pass on some of the guys who are most highly touted. 

 

I'd say if 200+ prospects are owned in your league, Luciano probably should be one, and decent argument for the two guys I mentioned as well. My league for instance has 480. 

Edited by brockpapersizer

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All subjective and depends on the nature of the league but really bright upside here. If your league ignores J2 guys until they get ranked in top 100 lists you might be good for awhile. But after Acuna, Soto, Devers, Vlad, Franco etc. might want to get this lotto ticket early if you have room to stash. That's my 2 cents anyways. The knowledge of these types is making it's way out obscurity in general and the internet isn't slowing that down. If this dude hits stateside, move quickly.

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