elroypedro

Kenyan Drake 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

I’ve posted this elsewhere, but here are some very interesting efficiency numbers for fantasy...

 

Here are some players fantasy points per touch, half ppr, for their careers, to give you an idea of what a good number is(0.80 or below is bad, .90 is about average, 1.00 good, 1.10 very good, 1.20 or above is elite):

Hyde = 0.73

Breida = 0.87

Gurley = 0.95

Hunt = 0.99

Chubb = 0.92

Conner = 0.97

Gordon = 0.86

Barkley = 1.09

McCaffery = 1.18

 

Now, here are some numbers relevant to this discussion:

2018 fantasy points per touch -

Gore = 0.57

Drake = 1.04

Clearly Drake was well underused, and Gore shouldn’t have even been on the field. As anyone with eyes and a brain knew, Adam Gase was a HORRIBLE judge of talent and talent manager in Miami. 

Here are Gore and Drake’s career fantasy points per touch:

Gore = 0.69

Drake = 1.05

Tells the story perfectly, as Gore is an unatheltic volume back, and Drake is a very athletic playmaker. 

 

Interestingly, and as an aside, here is the other ridiculously talented back that Gase mismanaged in Miami and his numbers:

2018

D Williams(w Chiefs) = 1.35

2014-2017

D Williams(w Dolphins) = 1.19

Career

D Williams = 1.24

 

 

Edited by elroypedro
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1 hour ago, elroypedro said:

I’ve posted this elsewhere, but here are some very interesting efficiency numbers for fantasy...

 

Here are some players fantasy points per touch, half ppr, for their careers, to give you an idea of what a good number is(0.80 or below is bad, .90 is about average, 1.00 good, 1.10 very good, 1.20 or above is elite):

Hyde = 0.73

Breida = 0.87

Gurley = 0.95

Hunt = 0.99

Chubb = 0.92

Conner = 0.97

Gordon = 0.86

Barkley = 1.09

McCaffery = 1.18

 

Now, here are some numbers relevant to this discussion:

2018 fantasy points per touch -

Gore = 0.57

Drake = 1.04

Clearly Drake was well underused, and Gore shouldn’t have even been on the field. As anyone with eyes and a brain knew, Adam Gase was a HORRIBLE judge of talent and talent manager in Miami. 

Here are Gore and Drake’s career fantasy points per touch:

Gore = 0.69

Drake = 1.05

Tells the story perfectly, as Gore is an unatheltic volume back, and Drake is a very athletic playmaker. 

 

Interestingly, and as an aside, here is the other ridiculously talented back that Gase mismanaged in Miami and his numbers:

2018

D Williams(w Chiefs) = 1.35

2014-2017

D Williams(w Dolphins) = 1.19

Career

D Williams = 1.24

 

 

 

 

Aaaaaand D. Williams has less career touches than anyone on your list.  Including the 2018 rookies 🤣

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1 hour ago, MJJ28 said:

 

You are making things up. Nowhere in the article does it say that he had the most efficient season for a RB that PFF has ever recorded. The article is about a single stat that PFF measured that Drake performed better than anyone else in from 2007-2017. 

MJJ, I cannot assist your reading comp: in the statistic that you heavily maligned?  Yes, the most efficient RB on record in human history.  Again, do with that info what you will, but please, stop pretending that it didn’t happen.  It’s unseemly.

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33 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

 

Aaaaaand D. Williams has less career touches than anyone on your list.  Including the 2018 rookies 🤣

Mostly irrelevant with how far of an outlier D Williams is, but also, you're fibbing: Damien has 240 touches, Saquon comparable at 252. Conner only a bit more at 302. Breida 306. Chubb less at 212.

Also, comparing Hunt in 2018 and D Williams in 2018 on the same team had Hunt = 0.99 and D Williams = 1.35.

 

And back to Drake...on even less touches than Drake or D Williams or Gore or anyone else, Drake's biggest competition in the backfield this coming year is Ballage, who scored 0.78 fantasy points per touch last year, which is very bad, far below average, and down in the awful Carlos Hyde low-level backup territory.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, elroypedro said:

I’ve posted this elsewhere, but here are some very interesting efficiency numbers for fantasy...

 

Here are some players fantasy points per touch, half ppr, for their careers, to give you an idea of what a good number is(0.80 or below is bad, .90 is about average, 1.00 good, 1.10 very good, 1.20 or above is elite):

Hyde = 0.73

Breida = 0.87

Gurley = 0.95

Hunt = 0.99

Chubb = 0.92

Conner = 0.97

Gordon = 0.86

Barkley = 1.09

McCaffery = 1.18

 

Now, here are some numbers relevant to this discussion:

2018 fantasy points per touch -

Gore = 0.57

Drake = 1.04

Clearly Drake was well underused, and Gore shouldn’t have even been on the field. As anyone with eyes and a brain knew, Adam Gase was a HORRIBLE judge of talent and talent manager in Miami. 

Here are Gore and Drake’s career fantasy points per touch:

Gore = 0.69

Drake = 1.05

Tells the story perfectly, as Gore is an unatheltic volume back, and Drake is a very athletic playmaker. 

 

Interestingly, and as an aside, here is the other ridiculously talented back that Gase mismanaged in Miami and his numbers:

2018

D Williams(w Chiefs) = 1.35

2014-2017

D Williams(w Dolphins) = 1.19

Career

D Williams = 1.24

 

 

 

These stats are misleading because they fail to account for role. Although Drake played 60% of the snaps, he was only utilized (carry + target) on 35% of his snaps. Gore on the other hand, was utilized on 52% of his snaps.

McCaffery utilization = 36% (on nearly 2x the volume)

Barkley = 45% on over 1.5x snaps

Gordon = 46% on similar snaps

Conner = 38% on 1.3x snaps

Gurley = 41% on 1.5x snaps

Hunt = 43% on similar snaps

Chubb = 56% on .7 snaps

Hyde = 49% on .7 snaps

Breida = 51% on .6 snaps

As we can see, all of these guys saw the ball a greater percentage of the time while on the field AND were also on the field as much or more (the top RBs at least).

Given this info, we can pretty safely assume that teams were probably less focused on Drake than other good RBs. Turns out this assumption is most certainly true, as Drake faced 8+ in the box 10% of the time, which was 4th least of all qualifying RBs in the NFL.

Another factor that plays into Drake’s high fantasy points per touch is his high reception/touch ratio (31%), as we all know catches are typically going to score more fantasy points on a per touch basis than carries. Here are those same players above:

 

McCaffrey: 33%

Barkley: 26%

Gordon: 22%

Conner: 20%

Gurley: 19%

Hunt: 13%

Chubb: 9% 

Hyde: 5%

Breida: 15%

Gore: 7%

 

As we can see, an unusually high percentage of Drake’s touches are receptions. So now we’ve established that:

1. Defenses focused less on Drake than other good RBs

2. Drake got a greater percentage of touches through the air than other good RBs.

This helps provide context as to why his point per touch ratio is so high, and why it is likely unsustainable at volume (he’s just not McCaffrey caliber).

So many seem to think that Drake is some mega talent who is underutilized due to his high point per touch ratio, but it seems pretty clear that he scored big points/touch in large part because of his role, not despite it, and that he fit the role well. Drake’s role was in a way perfectly setup to maximize fantasy points/touch, which makes sense given his actual skillset fits the role he was given (get ball away from people, run fast). For him to get more touches, he’d have to start doing stuff that he’s not very good at, and stuff that Gore was better at (see: ypc/film). Drake is the perfect example of a guy utilized in a manner that fits his skill set.

Edited by MJJ28
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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, BMcP said:

MJJ, I cannot assist your reading comp: in the statistic that you heavily maligned?  Yes, the most efficient RB on record in human history.  Again, do with that info what you will, but please, stop pretending that it didn’t happen.  It’s unseemly.

The stat was average yards after contact/touch. Really doesn’t have much to do with total efficiency. Not sure why you don’t get this?

Edited by MJJ28

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27 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

Mostly irrelevant with how far of an outlier D Williams is, but also, you're fibbing: Damien has 240 touches, Saquon comparable at 252. Conner only a bit more at 302. Breida 306. Chubb less at 212.

Also, comparing Hunt in 2018 and D Williams in 2018 on the same team had Hunt = 0.99 and D Williams = 1.35.

 

It's not helpful to obfuscate stats to fit your argument.  Hunt still had 207 touches in 2018, compared to D. Willaims 73.  Of course Williams has a higher points per touch.  That number would have gone down with 130 more touches, and if he had handled the workload over the course of a season as a lead back.  None of which you can prove with any of the stats you've posted.  Comparing him to Barkley? Also irrelevant.  Barkley did that all in one season while carrying near 100% of the load through 16 games.  Another thing which you can't prove D. Williams can sustain.  It's funny that you can't wrap your head around that.

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6 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

The stat was average yards after contact/touch. Really doesn’t have much to do with total efficiency. Not sure why you don’t get this?

Can we at least agree that a RB who is able to generate yards after contact is more efficient a rusher than a RB who is not able to do so?

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47 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Can we at least agree that a RB who is able to generate yards after contact is more efficient a rusher than a RB who is not able to do so?

Semantically it might not be exactly correct to say that, but a RB who can do such a thing is invaluable regardless. It shows what makes Drake so good that we have all seen on tape, and coupled with his speed, elusively, and pass catching paints a very bright picture of him as a possibly elite RB given the touches

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BMcP said:

Can we at least agree that a RB who is able to generate yards after contact is more efficient a rusher than a RB who is not able to do so?

 

Not really, because it is ignoring the whole part of the run where the runner isn’t touched.

Also, Drake isn’t generating the most yards after contact. Last season he generated the highest average yards after contact/touch from 2007-2017. Funny enough, on that list he only generated the 12th most total yards after contact while receiving the 12th most carries, so the way the information is presented is designed to make Drake look good.

Edited by MJJ28

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

Can we at least agree that a RB who is able to generate yards after contact is more efficient a rusher than a RB who is not able to do so?

 

I absolutely agree with that. Drake and Henry are 2 of the best at it.

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2 hours ago, BMcP said:

Can we at least agree that a RB who is able to generate yards after contact is more efficient a rusher than a RB who is not able to do so?

 

Idk if it makes them more efficient or not. Idk how someone could even put a value on that. But its definitely a positive quality to have. I'd much rather have a guy I know can make a man or two miss a tackle than the guy who just gets what the oline blocks for him. 

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1 hour ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Not really, because it is ignoring the whole part of the run where the runner isn’t touched.

Also, Drake isn’t generating the most yards after contact. Last season he generated the highest average yards after contact/touch from 2007-2017. Funny enough, on that list he only generated the 12th most total yards after contact while receiving the 12th most carries, so the way the information is presented is designed to make Drake look good.

Ok, would you prefer to focus on his 5.0 ypc in 2016-17, tied with Mark Ingram for the best ypc in the league for RBs with at least 150 carries?

Or his .22 missed tackles forced per attempt in 2017, which is the 26th-best performance ever in that category by a RB with at least 100 carries?

I mean, at what point can we confidently state that Drake is an effective running back when given opportunities?

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10 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I mean, at what point can we confidently state that Drake is an effective running back when given opportunities?

Now. We can definitely say it now.

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

Now. We can definitely say it now.

If you look at the games where he had 15+ touches (arbitrary cut-off point), I see something interesting.

- In 2017 he had 5 such games, in which he scored 5.5 Y/A. That's pretty darn tasty, and he outperformed Ajayi by a mile. 
- In 2018 he had 4 such games, in which however he scored 4.1 Y/A; both Gore and Ballage outperformed that.

What happened, and why is 2019 going to be better?

 

 

Edited by Boudewijn
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58 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

If you look at the games where he had 15+ touches (arbitrary cut-off point), I see something interesting.

- In 2017 he had 5 such games, in which he scored 5.5 Y/A. That's pretty darn tasty, and he outperformed Ajayi by a mile. 
- In 2018 he had 4 such games, in which however he scored 4.1 Y/A; both Gore and Ballage outperformed that.

What happened, and why is 2019 going to be better?

 

 

 

feels kind of arbitrary without full context... who were all those games against, split run/receiving, etc etc..... ok back to lurk mode until July. 

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, JSA2422 said:

 

feels kind of arbitrary without full context... who were all those games against, split run/receiving, etc etc..... ok back to lurk mode until July. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DrakKe00/gamelog/

Of course it's arbitrary, but I followed up on a premise which was already pretty arbitrary, that was the point. 

 

The statement was that when given the chance, Drake is efficient. I'm saying in 2017 definitely (*), in 2018 he didn't outshine his competition.

 

And my question "what happened" is an honest one, I have no idea what the difference was.

 

(*) For sufficiently arbitrary values.

Edited by Boudewijn

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, BMcP said:

Ok, would you prefer to focus on his 5.0 ypc in 2016-17, tied with Mark Ingram for the best ypc in the league for RBs with at least 150 carries?

Or his .22 missed tackles forced per attempt in 2017, which is the 26th-best performance ever in that category by a RB with at least 100 carries?

I mean, at what point can we confidently state that Drake is an effective running back when given opportunities?

 

I don’t doubt that he is effective within his role. He clearly is. That doesn’t necessarily mean he is deserving or capable of opportunity outside of the things he does well.

He’s the runningback version of a Martavis Bryant or Desean Jackson. Great efficiency, limited skillset. As such he is likely to just keep doing what he is doing. Those hoping he becomes something he is not are set for disappointment.

Edited by MJJ28

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At least we can now both agree that he is efficient!  Progress!

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1 minute ago, BMcP said:

At least we can now both agree that he is efficient!  Progress!

 

I never have denied that he wasn’t. Like I posted above, his skillset and usage favors efficient per touch output. The disagreement comes from people who think that because he is utilized in a manner that compliments his skills, he is somehow deserving of getting more touches at the things he doesn’t do well. He’s a complementary CoP back who isn’t short, so people seem to think he is some mega stud held back by coaches when really he’s just an Ekeler/Cohen/White type.

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41 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

I never have denied that he wasn’t. Like I posted above, his skillset and usage favors efficient per touch output. The disagreement comes from people who think that because he is utilized in a manner that compliments his skills, he is somehow deserving of getting more touches at the things he doesn’t do well. He’s a complementary CoP back who isn’t short, so people seem to think he is some mega stud held back by coaches when really he’s just an Ekeler/Cohen/White type.

Well, it might help to explain what exactly it is that he doesn’t do well.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BMcP said:

Well, it might help to explain what exactly it is that he doesn’t do well.

 

He lacks vision and patience, doesn’t consistently setup his blockers and often runs into the backs of his lineman. He runs in an upright position and lacks leg churn when met in the hole. He doesn’t know when to cut his losses and take what is given. He runs East-West and circles back far too often often resulting in large negative gains. He’s a raw athlete.

Edited by MJJ28

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