elroypedro

Kenyan Drake 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

 

I never have denied that he wasn’t. Like I posted above, his skillset and usage favors efficient per touch output. The disagreement comes from people who think that because he is utilized in a manner that compliments his skills, he is somehow deserving of getting more touches at the things he doesn’t do well. He’s a complementary CoP back who isn’t short, so people seem to think he is some mega stud held back by coaches when really he’s just an Ekeler/Cohen/White type.

 

So let me get this straight.

 

2017 Jay ajayi is traded and Adam Gase tries to split carries with Damien Williams and Drake. Once Williams gets hurt Gase is forced to start and play Drake as the feature back. What does Drake do? Has abetter 5 game stretch than any other player in the NFL at RB for that season.

 

2018 Drake gets less touches (which you are advocating for) and was less productive.

 

Something in your argument does not compute.

 

2017 Gase is forced to start Drake and Drake responds with an absurdly effecient stretch for a RB.

 

2018 Gase signs Frank Gore and drafts Ballard, limits Drake to a handful of touches per game and Drake's efficiency goes down?

 

Pretty clear that the more touches Drake gets the better chance of an explosive, game changing play like he did often in 2017 behind a putrid OLine.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
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2 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

 

He lacks vision and patience, doesn’t consistently setup his blockers and often runs into the backs of his lineman. He runs in an upright position and lacks leg churn when met in the hole. He doesn’t know when to cut his losses and take what is given. He runs East-West and circles back far too often often resulting in large negative gains. He’s a raw athlete.

I admit it’s hard to repudiate any of your observations as you have not cited any statistics whatsoever.  I suppose I will agree to disagree with your conclusion.

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3 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

 

He lacks vision and patience, doesn’t consistently setup his blockers and often runs into the backs of his lineman. He runs in an upright position and lacks leg churn when met in the hole. He doesn’t know when to cut his losses and take what is given. He runs East-West and circles back far too often often resulting in large negative gains. He’s a raw athlete.

 

Wow, this is an absurdly bad analysis

 

Are we watching the same highlights?

Drake literally does everything you said that he does not do well. Terribly disingenuous.

 

Again in 2017 Gase was forced to start Drake due to trades and injuries and when given a heavy workload he produced at an elite level.

 

Fast forward to 2018 and Gase has brought in Frank the Tank Gore and drafted Ballage. Gase was adamant not to start Drake, just sprinkling in a few carries to him as a gore backup and as the pass catching back and the result we're not as good as 2017 because of the lack of opportunity.

 

Gore in all his glory ran for 4.6ypc for Miami, Drake ran for 4.5. gore gives you nothing Drake doesn't do and Drake proved he is a lethal receiving threat along with being able to hit big, explosive running plays. When leaned on for 15 touches or more he proved he can produce at an elite level.

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Anyone that doubts drakes abilities just havent watched him play. What I doubt us his ability to stay healthy. His nfl career has a couple broke bones (arm and ankle). A couple concussions a couple soft tissue injuries (hamstrings) and last years shoulder injury. I dont think this guy can stay healthy if he gets a full load.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:

Anyone that doubts drakes abilities just havent watched him play. What I doubt us his ability to stay healthy. His nfl career has a couple broke bones (arm and ankle). A couple concussions a couple soft tissue injuries (hamstrings) and last years shoulder injury. I dont think this guy can stay healthy if he gets a full load.

 

I actually agree that Drake could share a little bit of the rushing load. He could cede a series here and there but I'd try to keep his touch total around 15-18 per game.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
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I also agree that he probably wouldn’t last as a bell-cow.  But why on Earth wouldn’t you give him around 15-18 touches a game?  He’s a proven playmaker.

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I actually agree that Drake could share a little bit of the rushing load. He could cede a series here and there but I'd try to keep his touch total around 15-18 per game.

Drake averages more than 1.00 points per touch in half PPR. He will likely continue that because of his prolific receiving ability and scoring production(on similar touches last year Drake had 9 TDs and Gore had 1 TD).

 

Last year he was RB 17 on only 10.8 touches per games, averaging 11.2 fantasy ppg.

 

If he gets 18+ touches per game, he will be a top 8 RB, as the top 8 RBs averaged 19.0 or above fantasy ppg last year. 

 

If he gets 15-18 touches per game, he will be a top 10 RB, but no higher than RB7-8, as RB8 last year averaged 19 ppg(above), but RB9-10 last year dropped off to around 15 fantasy ppg.

 

If he gets 12-15 touches per game, he will be a top 16 RB, as RB10-16 averaged 13-14 fantasy ppg last year.

 

If he gets under 12 touches season per game, he is again going to be a low end RB2 or worse.

 

Guve him the damn ball!

Edited by elroypedro
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Say you draft this guy....what's fair price (round)?  And do you snag Ballage (sp?) late round to hedge your bet?

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On 4/24/2019 at 5:16 PM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

So let me get this straight.

2017 Jay ajayi is traded and Adam Gase tries to split carries with Damien Williams and Drake. Once Williams gets hurt Gase is forced to start and play Drake as the feature back. What does Drake do? Has abetter 5 game stretch than any other player in the NFL at RB for that season.

2018 Drake gets less touches (which you are advocating for) and was less productive.

Something in your argument does not compute.

2017 Gase is forced to start Drake and Drake responds with an absurdly effecient stretch for a RB.

2018 Gase signs Frank Gore and drafts Ballard, limits Drake to a handful of touches per game and Drake's efficiency goes down?

Pretty clear that the more touches Drake gets the better chance of an explosive, game changing play like he did often in 2017 behind a putrid OLine.

 

But don't forget, Gase is an offensive genius!   

It seems this guy is going really cheap, I'm seeing him as low as RB40 behind guys like Henderson and Ito freakin Smith. Really? I think free of Gaseonomics he should put up decent and potentially quite good numbers.Can't speak to injury concerns though. 

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Posted (edited)
On 4/28/2019 at 11:03 PM, theSPANKER said:

Say you draft this guy....what's fair price (round)?  And do you snag Ballage (sp?) late round to hedge your bet?

 

You can get him in the 5th. Which is where I got him last year, and I value him more this year for obvious reasons.
Seems to be in the company of Montgomery, Carson, Michel, Ingram.

Ballage is a target of mine for uber-late rounds with or without Drake.

Edited by dropshadows
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Posted (edited)

Kenyan Drake is the same as most other explosive and fast guys.  They SEEM more efficient the more they touch the ball, but that is a reality only on paper.  

 

Gase and many coaches in the NFL for whatever reason want that back is going to run straight into the designed hole whether or not there are 2 opposing jerseys waiting for them.  They want the guy that is going to consistently get 3-4 yards.

 

Drake will just never be that guy.  He will never be that guy because he's explosive and fast.  Guys like him see 2 opposing jerseys waiting in the hole they pop it outside to the dismay of idiots like Gase.  When the game is on the line Frank Gore can get you 10 yards on a trick play then get tackled.  Kenyan Drake will do swirls and loops and cause Rob Gronkowski's pants to fall off as he glides into the end zone.

 

Drake might take a few negative plays here and there.  He may get 2 yards here and there trying to make something huge happen when he could've had 4 safe yards.  But if you give him enough run he's going to break a 30+ yarder being explosive and fast.  You just gotta get enough run to get to those chunk plays.

 

5 carries:  3+4+3+0+5 = 15 yards = 3 YPC - not efficient, not a good back most would think on paper

10 carries:  3+4+3+0+5+2+6+3+48+3 = 77 yards = 7.7 YPC - extremely efficient, great back on paper

 

If you put Kenyan Drake on the Chiefs and gave him run as the starter I could see Jamaal Charles 2 in the making.  I know little about O'Shea, but I doubt he's on Fat Andy's level.  I love Drake's skills, but worry he's about to get caught in the jaws of another Adam Gase.

Edited by Dreams And Dwightmares
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Posted (edited)
On 4/24/2019 at 7:18 PM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Wow, this is an absurdly bad analysis

 

Are we watching the same highlights?

Drake literally does everything you said that he does not do well. Terribly disingenuous.

 

Again in 2017 Gase was forced to start Drake due to trades and injuries and when given a heavy workload he produced at an elite level.

 

Fast forward to 2018 and Gase has brought in Frank the Tank Gore and drafted Ballage. Gase was adamant not to start Drake, just sprinkling in a few carries to him as a gore backup and as the pass catching back and the result we're not as good as 2017 because of the lack of opportunity.

 

Gore in all his glory ran for 4.6ypc for Miami, Drake ran for 4.5. gore gives you nothing Drake doesn't do and Drake proved he is a lethal receiving threat along with being able to hit big, explosive running plays. When leaned on for 15 touches or more he proved he can produce at an elite level.

 

I watched a lot of Dolphins games last year and think the truth lies somewhere between what you and MJJ28 are saying.

 

I saw a decent amount of what MJJ28 saw as well, but I also don't think it's necessarily a bad thing.  If you've got the ability to turn nothing into something, why would you accept a 1 yard gain when you want to prove you deserve more PT and believe you can turn this broken play into a 50 yard home run?

 

Just watched this highlight video...

 

0:27 - Looks to be an off cuff pop to me.  Hard to be 100% with poor angle though.

0:37 - Another one where he went against play design

1:22 - Another one... (this is 3/4 highlights now that are ad-libs against play design)

 

I'm not going to do this anymore.  I've seen enough.  Bottom line.  I think his style of football is beautiful and exciting and if I was a head coach this is the RB I would start and target for my team.  Adam Gase is an idiot though, and Patriots Coaches over the years don't seem to have much desire to see this play either from ALL the Patriots losers that have gone on to coach their own teams coupled with seeing Pats RBs over the years.  I don't think MJJ28 was that far off from what he saw, personally, but I see it as amazing where some others might see it as sloppy.

Edited by Dreams And Dwightmares

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Posted (edited)
On 6/28/2019 at 10:38 AM, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

I watched a lot of Dolphins games last year and think the truth lies somewhere between what you and MJJ28 are saying.

 

I saw a decent amount of what MJJ28 saw as well, but I also don't think it's necessarily a bad thing.  If you've got the ability to turn nothing into something, why would you accept a 1 yard gain when you want to prove you deserve more PT and believe you can turn this broken play into a 50 yard home run?

 

Just watched this highlight video...

 

0:27 - Looks to be an off cuff pop to me.  Hard to be 100% with poor angle though.

0:37 - Another one where he went against play design

1:22 - Another one... (this is 3/4 highlights now that are ad-libs against play design)

 

I'm not going to do this anymore.  I've seen enough.  Bottom line.  I think his style of football is beautiful and exciting and if I was a head coach this is the RB I would start and target for my team.  Adam Gase is an idiot though, and Patriots Coaches over the years don't seem to have much desire to see this play either from ALL the Patriots losers that have gone on to coach their own teams coupled with seeing Pats RBs over the years.  I don't think MJJ28 was that far off from what he saw, personally, but I see it as amazing where some others might see it as sloppy.

 

You have made good points. I don't have much to counter you on except for the fact that Gase was an idiot. I firmly believe he lets his ego get in the way of his knowledge of football 

 

I think the new coaching staff will believe in Drake more. At least that is my hope. If you watch Drake he has a lot of Lasean McCoy type of moves. Shady was known to ad lib a little bit. That is what makes some of the best backs dangerous, David Johnson, shady mccoy, McCaffrey, Barkley. Most those guys have an OLine way better than Miami and and coaches committed to give them touches but all of us that have watched Drake see that same kind of athletic talent. I watch the highlights of Drake and he does so many things well, receiving, running, blocking, Drake trying to make something out of nothing on a few running plays pales in comparison to the explosive element he brings to the backfield. 

 

I can't think of a better later round RB to take than Drake. Dolphins offense should be on the field a it playing catch-up and he is by far their best pass catching RB and is good enough to carry the ball 12-18 times a game. I envision Drake as an 18-22 touch guy a game. Something like 12-15 carries and 4-6 catches a game.

 

If you get him at flex you have to consider that a big win, in my opinion.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
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On 4/24/2019 at 7:31 PM, Stonej14 said:

Anyone that doubts drakes abilities just havent watched him play. What I doubt us his ability to stay healthy. His nfl career has a couple broke bones (arm and ankle). A couple concussions a couple soft tissue injuries (hamstrings) and last years shoulder injury. I dont think this guy can stay healthy if he gets a full load.

 

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What I like about Drake is that he's not just an athlete.  His vision and patience aren't elite, but they're good.  He's a natural, instinctive runner.

Flores should recognize Drake's talent and versatility, since Flores was on the sidelines when Drake utterly dominated the Patriots on MNF.  Flores must be aware that Drake can even split out wide and beat DBs.  He even has the instincts to get open when the QB is under pressure (1:41).

That said, I expect Ballage to get a big chunk of the workload because of durability concerns and the Belichick RBBC influence

 

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Posted (edited)

Drake basically has no injury history as a pro. He had some at Alabama, but over nearly 400 touches across 3 seasons and 48 games in the NFL, the only injury he has had was a minor shoulder injury this last year that put him as probable on the week 11 injury report that caused him to miss no time.

 

Drake has never missed an NFL game due to injury, or any other reason, in his 3 year career. 

 

His college durability has some questions, but clearly that hasn’t close to translated to the pros, and he is now above average for RBs in terms of durability.

Edited by elroypedro
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He got hurt today.  No word on the severity yet, and it doesn't seem overly serious.  But even a minor injury can result in weeks of missed time at this point in camp, and any missed time for Drake could threaten hurt his workload, at least early in the year.  .

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3 hours ago, Nap Time said:

What I like about Drake is that he's not just an athlete.  His vision and patience aren't elite, but they're good.  He's a natural, instinctive runner.

Flores should recognize Drake's talent and versatility, since Flores was on the sidelines when Drake utterly dominated the Patriots on MNF.  Flores must be aware that Drake can even split out wide and beat DBs.  He even has the instincts to get open when the QB is under pressure (1:41).

That said, I expect Ballage to get a big chunk of the workload because of durability concerns and the Belichick RBBC influence

 

 

 

I don't trust Flores. Something stinks like fish in Miami.

 

Drake 2020 is when he will be a free agent. Patiently I wait.

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I’m hoping he can be had for cheap on draft day because of this injury, Ballage seems to be getting the hype but I still believe in Drake being the better back. 

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2 hours ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

I’m hoping he can be had for cheap on draft day because of this injury, Ballage seems to be getting the hype but I still believe in Drake being the better back. 

Agreed. 

I think both will have a role, and I think both can have stand alone fantasy value. Especially in PPR formats. And, if something were to happen to either one for an extended period of time, that value vaults up from a Flex to a RB2. 

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I think both of them are going to be relatively cheap. It's hard to get enthusiastic about this MIA offense after numerous years of mediocrity offensively and we really don't know yet who the QB is.

Drake in a boot 2nd week of AUG is mildly concerning, but OTOH I haven't been targeting MIA skill players anyway. No one on this offense stands out in any noticeable way. They're going to have to win by not committing turnovers and playing solid defense, at least in 2019.

Fitzpatrick is a journeyman. Rosen is basically a rookie. This offense does not inspire confidence, as usual.

Then there's the coach. Losing Gase appears to be addition by subtraction, particularly in regards to Drake. However in his place we have Flores, a career defensive assistant with NE. Not much is known about Flores's offensive philosophy, but of course he's coming from a team that pretty much invented RBBC. 

Bottom line for me is - w/o further info, which I acknowledge may come through preseason games - I'm avoiding Dolphins offensive players as a whole going into the draft. 

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9 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

I think both of them are going to be relatively cheap. It's hard to get enthusiastic about this MIA offense after numerous years of mediocrity offensively and we really don't know yet who the QB is.

Drake in a boot 2nd week of AUG is mildly concerning, but OTOH I haven't been targeting MIA skill players anyway. No one on this offense stands out in any noticeable way. They're going to have to win by not committing turnovers and playing solid defense, at least in 2019.

Fitzpatrick is a journeyman. Rosen is basically a rookie. This offense does not inspire confidence, as usual.

Then there's the coach. Losing Gase appears to be addition by subtraction, particularly in regards to Drake. However in his place we have Flores, a career defensive assistant with NE. Not much is known about Flores's offensive philosophy, but of course he's coming from a team that pretty much invented RBBC. 

Bottom line for me is - w/o further info, which I acknowledge may come through preseason games - I'm avoiding Dolphins offensive players as a whole going into the draft. 

 That's far, and all good points. Just hope my fellow league mates feel the same as I see still some value. 

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I think this is a "try to get both Drake and Ballage late and hope one emerges" situation.  Similar to TB, with Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber.

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1 hour ago, Brownsfan74 said:

I think this is a "try to get both Drake and Ballage late and hope one emerges" situation.  Similar to TB, with Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber.

 

I'm thinking about that too, but the downside is that you've handcuffed one of the least inspiring offenses in the league.

 

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