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Mike Clevinger 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

Mike K-levinger

Edited by sharpee
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i love this guy.  Drafted him the last 3 years and he's evolved into a mid tier SP1.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

SP1

 

  1. SP1 for sure. The question is how high can our boy go? 
  2.  
  3. Not trying to base this off 1 game, but rather his profile coming into the season (this game does help, however) - am i being too cute in saying that he could legitimately be a top 7 arm this season? i personally don't see why not.
  4.  
  5. Thoughts?
Edited by sharpee
wording / spelling

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, sharpee said:

 

  1. SP1 for sure. The question is how high can our boy go? 
  2.  
  3. Not trying to base this off 1 game, but rather his profile coming into the season (this game does help, however) - am i being too cute saying that he could legitimately be a top 7 arm this season? i personally don't see why not.
  4.  
  5. Thoughts?

 

he could be a top 7 arm especially with a few of the top dogs falling a little.  kershaw, severino, mad bum, grienke, maybe even kluber.  edit: maybe sale too.

buehler and flaherty may have been over drafted this year.  i have flaherty in a few leagues but i usually have clevinger as my sp2...or i went something like Clevinger/wheeler or clevinger/marquez. and im very happy/comfortable about that.

 

so ya, i trust he can be top 12, which an outside shot at top 7 or so

Edited by jfazz23
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Anyone rolling with the new strategy of drafting long haired SPs next year?

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16 minutes ago, UberRebel said:

Anyone rolling with the new strategy of drafting long haired SPs next year?

Don’t forget about hader 

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I. Am. Loving. It. 

 

Although regretting using Tailon as a keeper over him but I made sure to ‚Äúoverdraft‚ÄĚ him(according to those in my leagues.)

 

The last Indians pitcher I fell in love with  had his mom defending him on the forums.  He then had fangraphs jump on board with a weekly Appreciation society in 2013. That seemed to work out pretty good. 

http://forums.rotoworld.com/topic/295038-corey-kluber-2012-season-outlook/

 

Clevinger has even better eye popping strikeout potential going forward. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, bcobb311 said:

I. Am. Loving. It. 

 

Although regretting using Tailon as a keeper over him but I made sure to ‚Äúoverdraft‚ÄĚ him(according to those in my leagues.)

 

The last Indians pitcher I fell in love with  had his mom defending him on the forums.  He then had fangraphs jump on board with a weekly Appreciation society in 2013. That seemed to work out pretty good. 

http://forums.rotoworld.com/topic/295038-corey-kluber-2012-season-outlook/

 

Clevinger has even better eye popping strikeout potential going forward. 

 

 

 

Kluber's breaking stuff is probably better but I get your point. Clevinger has multiple offerings and let's hope that his control sticks. Top 10 is definitely within reach.

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Posted (edited)

Clevinger is WAY more Carrasco than Kluber. At least IMO. They're actually incredibly comparable to me. 

Edited by taobball

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I feel like he's always incredibly overlooked, at least compared to Clevenland's other three aces, but Clevinger should put together a season just as great as any of theirs. Just a really great pitcher with great strikeout stuff.

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Killer performance. Really great pitch mix and I was a bit taken aback by how hard he was tossing the FB compared to last year...

Sure enough, SIS confirmed it was his career high for FB velo at just a hair under 95 MPH, also 9 of 12 Ks came on heater.

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Feel like I want to sell, but no good reason to feel that way.  Probably an subconscious bias against long hair...

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22 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Killer performance. Really great pitch mix and I was a bit taken aback by how hard he was tossing the FB compared to last year...

Sure enough, SIS confirmed it was his career high for FB velo at just a hair under 95 MPH, also 9 of 12 Ks came on heater.

Read an article saying he worked hard on strength and inc fb Velo in offseason.  He even commented that it was too cold yesterday and feels he has another level 97 mph when it gets warmer.   

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He even got squeezed on two of the 3 walks yesterday. Both on full counts.

 

He could have had 14K/1BB instead of 12/3.

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5 minutes ago, Choo on Wieters said:

He even got squeezed on two of the 3 walks yesterday. Both on full counts.

 

He could have had 14K/1BB instead of 12/3.

 

He also got a ton of borderline pitches to be fair. 

Only thing that keeps me from hyping him like some of you guys are is how inefficient he is with his pitches. He turns a lot of 0-2 and 1-2 counts into full counts by playing around the edges of the zone.  But since his control isn’t pinpoint, a lot of those pitches are easy takes. Even a garbage offense like the White Sox pushed him over 100 pitches before the end of inning six. Thankfully he pitches in a horrific division, but better teams will make him pay from time to time. A lot of his heaters were also very hittable. In warmer weather against a team fielding more major league bats, some of those pitches are going to be drilled. I see him more as a 3.40/1.15 guy than an elite level ace. Still obviously a bargain for what most paid for him. 

Comparison to Carrasco is probably a good one. I could definitely see them putting up eerily similar numbers, though I do like Carrasco’s SO and W upside a little bit more. 

 

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24 minutes ago, sleepysock said:

 

He also got a ton of borderline pitches to be fair. 

Only thing that keeps me from hyping him like some of you guys are is how inefficient he is with his pitches. He turns a lot of 0-2 and 1-2 counts into full counts by playing around the edges of the zone.  But since his control isn’t pinpoint, a lot of those pitches are easy takes. Even a garbage offense like the White Sox pushed him over 100 pitches before the end of inning six. Thankfully he pitches in a horrific division, but better teams will make him pay from time to time. A lot of his heaters were also very hittable. In warmer weather against a team fielding more major league bats, some of those pitches are going to be drilled. I see him more as a 3.40/1.15 guy than an elite level ace. Still obviously a bargain for what most paid for him. 

Comparison to Carrasco is probably a good one. I could definitely see them putting up eerily similar numbers, though I do like Carrasco’s SO and W upside a little bit more. 

 

 

He was a 3.0 /1.15 guy last year and it only seems like he's getting better. Don't really see how his upside is limited to what you're saying. I think that's a modest projection at best. 

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I think he's a top 12 SP now. He may never develop the control to be a top 5 arm, but he could get pretty close. 

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I mean here's what you need to know. Last year his fastball sat around 93. It was his weakest offering. He has 3 quality offspeed pitchers, typical slider curveball, changeup. But now he's pumping 95-96... That's breakout immiment. It was one start against the white Sox? But if his fastball is up a couple clicks you have every reason to be excited. That! And the walks. But even 3 per 9 is servicible with a 10/9 k

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6 hours ago, Willsea33 said:

 

He was a 3.0 /1.15 guy last year and it only seems like he's getting better. Don't really see how his upside is limited to what you're saying. I think that's a modest projection at best. 

 

Well he had a bit of a fortunate year. A little regression and a weaker bullpen will slide those numbers back a bit. He could outperform it, sure, but one start against a bad team is way too early to start calling him a top 10 guy...

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1 hour ago, dkrocka said:

I mean here's what you need to know. Last year his fastball sat around 93. It was his weakest offering. He has 3 quality offspeed pitchers, typical slider curveball, changeup. But now he's pumping 95-96... That's breakout immiment. It was one start against the white Sox? But if his fastball is up a couple clicks you have every reason to be excited. That! And the walks. But even 3 per 9 is servicible with a 10/9 k

 

His FB was up 0.7 mph. That's still significant if sustained all year. but not the 2-3 mph your'e claiming. It's also within the normal realm of fluctuation from game to game.

I don't want to sound like the Clevinger buzzkiller -- I do have him in a couple leagues -- but I need to see 6-8 starts of sustained domination with more whiffs, better velo, etc to say he's made the jump into tier one like some of you are saying. 

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3 hours ago, sleepysock said:

 

Well he had a bit of a fortunate year. A little regression and a weaker bullpen will slide those numbers back a bit. He could outperform it, sure, but one start against a bad team is way too early to start calling him a top 10 guy...

 

That's a black-and-white statement a bit, no? Would you mind pointing to where you think or how you think he was fortunate? 

 

His BABIP (.280) was reasonable and HIGHER than the previous year (.273)

His LOB% was identical to the previous year or nearly so (79.7% / 79.8%) 

Same with his GB%, HR/9, and HR/FB%

 

I mean maybe he was a bit fortunate... but let's not pretend there's something in the profile that shows some crazy lack of sustainability. To me, nothing here is unsustainable. 

 

2nd, it's an inherent logical flaw to just say "One start against a bad team... yada yada." Presumably, at least SOME who made the claim were fairly high on him prior to. 

Let's see... yep

On 3/14/2019 at 2:12 PM, taobball said:

Mike Clevinger continues ascent, finishes in the top 10 among SPs.¬†ÔĽŅ

Now that's a bold prediction, but all Bold Predictions come with a shred of belief. All I'm saying is it is a little... off put to pretend that those who have Clevinger are simply high on him because of one start.

I mean...

3 hours ago, sleepysock said:

but I need to see 6-8 starts of sustained domination with more whiffs, better velo, etc to say he's made the jump into tier one like some of you are saying. 

Ya talk about him like like he just came out of nowhere. You talk like calling him a "3.40" guy is "just what he's been" or even "better." But it's not. He's a career 3.30 ERA SP who has posted a 3.11 ERA or better for two consecutive years and 321+ Innings. Same with economy of pitches. I get why you'd be concerned about economy of pitches in general, but making a big fuss about it is being a little willfully ignorant of last year. He had 32 GS and 200 IP. That's 6.25 IP per start... which is not AT ALL bad in our current climate. Blake Snell's Cy Young Campaign he had 5.8+. I guess I just don't get what you haven't seen in two years.... that you'll find in another 4 starts. 

 

IF you believe he's a 3.40 Guy, fine. All I'm really saying is, be aware that you're calling for him to have a considerably worse ERA than the past two years, worse than his career average, and just know that you're taking a bit of a hard-nosed stance against Clevinger if you see him falling off after last year. 

 

And then...

10 hours ago, sleepysock said:

 

Comparison to Carrasco is probably a good one. I could definitely see them putting up eerily similar numbers, though I do like Carrasco’s SO and W upside a little bit more. 

 

My Clevinger to Carrasco comp goes back two+ years. They're insanely identical to me from an Arsenal standpoint. Fastball worst pitch. Slider arguably best. Second breakingn ball and change-up. All secondary work and play up. 

I guess I just don't at all get why you don't believe Clevinger has the upside. Carrasco has a bit more control and a bit more swing-and-miss.... but it isn't by that much. Especially because I think Clevinger can continue to improve in that regard. I mean, Carrasco was having his first good season ever as an SP when he was Clevinger's age. Clevinger has accomplished way more before turning 28. Clevinger pitched more innings per start than Carrasco did last year. He had a 10+ K/9 in 2017 and in the second half of 2018. And he's at least potentially ascending as opposed to 32 and with an injury history. 

 

I know you said you didn't wanna come off as negative, so I don't mean to paint this picture of you as some ridiculous Clevinger hater. I just don't agree with a few interpretations. 

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7 hours ago, sleepysock said:

 

Well he had a bit of a fortunate year. A little regression and a weaker bullpen will slide those numbers back a bit. He could outperform it, sure, but one start against a bad team is way too early to start calling him a top 10 guy...

Indians BP was hot trash last year. They had names, but they sucked.  BABIP has a lot to do with hangtime (longer time a defender reacts, better odd he catches the ball)

He has a .277 BABIP in 381 IP. You have 2 full seasons of data. When does it stop being luck?

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