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Josh Allen 2019 Outlook

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The hit was big for sure, but all things considered he looked great afterwards. Only thing that makes me think there's even a chance he doesn't suit up this week is their bye next week. 

I don't think it will but I just hope this doesn't limit his running moving forward cause that'll really hurt his value. 

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23 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

The hit was big for sure, but all things considered he looked great afterwards. Only thing that makes me think there's even a chance he doesn't suit up this week is their bye next week. 

I don't think it will but I just hope this doesn't limit his running moving forward cause that'll really hurt his value. 

 

I'm not too worried about that. Let's face it, Josh Allen is not a polished NFL quarterback. So he needs to do things like run or he's just not going to make it in the league, at least not anytime soon. I believe we were looking at upper-teens scoring if the hit didn't knock him out of the game. The thing with Allen is that he is ridiculously turnover prone, but his floor is very stable (if and when healthy). In many leagues he scored ~18 points in Week 1 while turning the ball over 4 times. 

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36 minutes ago, owenmills said:

I think they would've come back and won the game if he hadn't gotten knocked out. The guy has brass balls and their D was manhandling the Pats. Often he seems to start slow with mistakes but instead of shrinking he makes plays and brings his team back. A shame he got hurt, it probably would've been an exciting finish

 

Yeah definitely would've been fun to watch, I really hope Josh Allen matures into that franchise QB. This team can be downright nasty for years to come, if he keeps developing as a passer. Play makers on every level, amazing defense, emerging TE and a talented young buck at RB. Once Brady retires the AFC East will be locked down , but all dependent on Allen's development. About the only thing I see missing from this team is an X factor at the wide receiver position. Not that I don't like John Brown and Beasley working the middle 

Edited by RunCMC

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2 minutes ago, KenboSlice925 said:

 

I'm not too worried about that. Let's face it, Josh Allen is not a polished NFL quarterback. So he needs to do things like run or he's just not going to make it in the league, at least not anytime soon. I believe we were looking at upper-teens scoring if the hit didn't knock him out of the game. The thing with Allen is that he is ridiculously turnover prone, but his floor is very stable (if and when healthy). In many leagues he scored ~18 points in Week 1 while turning the ball over 4 times. 

Thats what stung about this game, Allen typically doesn't have many fantasy points until that fourth quarter rolls around. He has ice in his veins and kills it at the end of games.

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It would have been beneficial if they had gone to the crossing routes earlier.  Too many run, run, long 3rd down bomb attempt.  A lot of deep ball attempts with a lower than average probability of happening, and a lot seemed by design.  He isn't the most accurate but he is better than I gave him credit for in that department.  They should have had him running earlier by design.  The scramble hit probably will kill his running value going forward as the coaches will avoid it more often.

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17 hours ago, Sternes said:

It would have been beneficial if they had gone to the crossing routes earlier.  Too many run, run, long 3rd down bomb attempt.  A lot of deep ball attempts with a lower than average probability of happening, and a lot seemed by design.  He isn't the most accurate but he is better than I gave him credit for in that department.  They should have had him running earlier by design.  The scramble hit probably will kill his running value going forward as the coaches will avoid it more often.

 

I doubt it.  If anything they will be preaching to Allen to slide and get the hell down.

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As an Allen owner, I got a feeling that the Bills will lean towards caution and have him sit out this game, and then a full bye week to recover

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7 hours ago, squidthunder said:

As an Allen owner, I got a feeling that the Bills will lean towards caution and have him sit out this game, and then a full bye week to recover

I'm not buying that. Starting Barkley is essentially conceding a winnable game. If Allen can play, he's playing.

Judging by him wanting to get up and being held down by staff, then jogging to the sideline, then sprinting to the tunnel... I think he'll be out there.

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11 hours ago, StevieStats said:

I'm not buying that. Starting Barkley is essentially conceding a winnable game. If Allen can play, he's playing.

Judging by him wanting to get up and being held down by staff, then jogging to the sideline, then sprinting to the tunnel... I think he'll be out there.

 

Agreed. They could really lean on Gore a lot more. But playing Barkley is a loss for a team 3-1. If there is anyway he can play, he will play period.

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9 minutes ago, TennisDude said:

 

Agreed. They could really lean on Gore a lot more. But playing Barkley is a loss for a team 3-1. If there is anyway he can play, he will play period.

Hopefully he can get thru the concussion protocol without any issues

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Yeah this guy is a baller, if he can get through protocol he’ll play. I expect they might try to scale back the designed runs a little to protect him though. 

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Matt Barkley in 6 years of the NFL has 10TD’s and 20INT’s and a 65 passer rating and has never been in a game where his team won. Lol How is this guy even still in the NFL? 

Josh Allen playing unless he can’t see straight.

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7 minutes ago, cnewbykkn said:

Dropped regardless. Guy doesn't even have 2TDs in a game yet. 

First game. 1 Pass and 1 even more valuable rushing TD.......3 rushing TDs on the year.

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10 minutes ago, cnewbykkn said:

Dropped regardless. Guy doesn't even have 2TDs in a game yet. 

He's still got 2 games against the dolphins coming up, and the skins, and the Eagles secondary.

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Just now, cnewbykkn said:

 

You lose all credibility when you have to lol at yourself for reassurance that you are funny.  

I'm rolling with Winston and DJones now.  Rather have gunslingers with weapons and bad defenses than Allen with no weapons and a good defense.

 

Cool story - but if you plan on stating info that's incorrect, it's hard to take you seriously 

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Just now, squidthunder said:

 

Cool story - but if you plan on stating info that's incorrect, it's hard to take you seriously 

 

Feel free to correct me.

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1 minute ago, cnewbykkn said:

 

Feel free to correct me.

 

Guy doesn't even have 2TDs in a game yet. 

week 1 - 2TD (1 rushing)

week 2 - 2 TD (1 rushing)

 

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1 minute ago, squidthunder said:

 

Guy doesn't even have 2TDs in a game yet. 

week 1 - 2TD (1 rushing)

week 2 - 2 TD (1 rushing)

 

 

Obv meant passing.  QB rushing TDs are too flukey to depend on every week. Passing stats are more accurate when evaluating/projecting for the future.

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1 minute ago, cnewbykkn said:

 

Obv meant passing.  QB rushing TDs are too flukey to depend on every week. Passing stats are more accurate when evaluating/projecting for the future.

 

But it's who Allen is - he runs the ball. You draft/add him for the ability to get out of the pocket and get yards rushing

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1 minute ago, cnewbykkn said:

 

Obv meant passing.  QB rushing TDs are too flukey to depend on every week. Passing stats are more accurate when evaluating/projecting for the future.

 

Flukey!? That’s why you buy Allen is for the 50% chance he runs in a TD each game. He’s dynamic and a great mix of pass and run LOL HAHAHA HEHEHEHE

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Just now, MrPositive said:

 

Flukey!? That’s why you buy Allen is for the 50% chance he runs in a TD each game. He’s dynamic and a great mix of pass and run LOL HAHAHA HEHEHEHE

 

 

Super enticing... 1 pass TD and a 50% chance at a rushing TD.  Pass.

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1 hour ago, cnewbykkn said:

 

 

Super enticing... 1 pass TD and a 50% chance at a rushing TD.  Pass.

You know there's such thing as points for rushing yards too, right? 

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2 hours ago, cnewbykkn said:

 

 

Super enticing... 1 pass TD and a 50% chance at a rushing TD.  Pass.

 

Allen has 11 rushing TDs in 16 career games, which is actually like a 69% chance of a TD (and 3 of 4 this season is a 75% chance).  Most leagues score rushing TDs for 6 points and passing TDs for 4 points, which means a passing TD is only worth 67% of what a rushing TD is worth.

2 passing TDs is worth 8 fantasy points, and 1 passing TD and ~70% of a rushing TD is worth 8.2 fantasy points.  

So yeah, 1 pass TD and Allen's rushing game is more valuable than your arbitrary 2 passing TD threshold for QB fantasy relevance.

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