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Amed Rosario 2019 Outlook

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Actually seemed to figure some things out as the season went along last year.  Do we expect him to take another step forward, making him an intriguing keeper in keeper/dynasty leagues, or does he still have too much work to do yet?

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It does seem that his last two months of the season stats shows he started to figure something out.

 

A closer look at his K rate dropped from 28.8% in '17 to 20.1% in '18 and BB% increased from 1.8% to 4.9%; obviously none of the two rates are where we'd like to see for a player rely from on his speed than power. But at least the numbers are getting closer to his minor league K% of 17.3% and BB% of 5.8%. 

 

I see him as a low double digit HR guy with 20+ SB and a BA of around .275; depending on your team roster and how many you get to keep per season, but in a 12 team keep 10 format, I wouldn't necessary keep him as there are many other keeper worthy SS out there. I see him at best a top 15 shortstop at season end.

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For redraft and shallow keeper leagues(non-dynasty, not many keepers) he's simply a breakout candidate that could put up some very nice sb numbers if he cuts down on the ks and increases his walks.  He took some good steps last year and ended nicely, but he still has a long way to go to get that obp north of .300 and up to a more reasonable number like .320-.330.

 

For Dynasty leagues and deeper keeper leagues he's still a strong asset and would be one of the top prospects in the league if he hadn't been called up at age 21, and asked to play an entire season at age 22.  He has a lot to work on, mainly just getting on base more and also increasing his success on the base paths 24/35 ain't the best success rate.  He has 15hr/30+sb upside though and will have an extremely long leash to figure it out.  Could see him making some big leaps this year if he puts it together.

 

I'd probably say he's at least 1 full year away from being truly fantasy relevant though.  If he builds on what he had last year, maybe we hope for a .265/12hr/80run/60 rbi/30 sb year, which i'd be perfectly fine with at his current ADP of 273. 

Edited by BackyardBaseball

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21 minutes ago, svachon said:

I'm a bit worried about PT with all the infielders NYMets have.

 

The only person they have that can play SS is Lowrie and he’s currently their starting 3B.  I’m pretty sure he’ll cycle more between third and 2nd to give cano some rest and Frazier some playing time more than he takes Rosario off short.  The Mets are pretty committed to keeping him at short and developing him as much as possible, don’t think Lowrie is gonna get in the way of that

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Keep an eye on where he hits in the lineup.  RosterResource has him in the 7 hole which doesn't bode well for his counting stats, but if he can cut down on his Ks and increase his BB rate, perhaps like his teammate Nimmo, and should an injury befall Nimmo or Lowrie, he could end up at the top of the order and see his value dramatically improve.


At this point, though, I like him only for a good source of mid-round SBs.  I'd rather have Polanco, Hampson, or Simmons as my SS in standard leagues, and for cheaper draft prices too.

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2 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

Keep an eye on where he hits in the lineup.  RosterResource has him in the 7 hole which doesn't bode well for his counting stats, but if he can cut down on his Ks and increase his BB rate, perhaps like his teammate Nimmo, and should an injury befall Nimmo or Lowrie, he could end up at the top of the order and see his value dramatically improve.


At this point, though, I like him only for a good source of mid-round SBs.  I'd rather have Polanco, Hampson, or Simmons as my SS in standard leagues, and for cheaper draft prices too.

If Hampson wins the job. 

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6 hours ago, cdd10 said:

If Hampson wins the job. 

 

I agree. If there's anything Colorado does well, it's holding back there young guys from developing. Played average veterans last year while Ryan McMahon rotted on the bench. I worry the same about McMahon/Hampson/Rodgers. In a Dynasty League I'm in I thought about offering Rodgers for Amed, just because of the way Colorado poorly handles their prospects.

Edited by Team Dynasty

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On 2/4/2019 at 8:35 PM, svachon said:

I'm a bit worried about PT with all the infielders NYMets have.

 

 

He may get a day off here and there, but I can't see him losing playing time simply due to the alleged depth of IFs. If he struggles, maybe, but SS is clearly his position to lose, there is no battle for that spot.

Not a fact, just my opinion.

 

On 2/4/2019 at 9:23 PM, En Votto Veritas said:

Keep an eye on where he hits in the lineup.  RosterResource has him in the 7 hole which doesn't bode well for his counting stats, but if he can cut down on his Ks and increase his BB rate, perhaps like his teammate Nimmo, and should an injury befall Nimmo or Lowrie, he could end up at the top of the order and see his value dramatically improve....

 

I see him as the leadoff hitter. He excelled there, and though I like Nimmo just as much as a player, if not more, I'd say Rosario's ceiling is higher, so why put his ceiling at risk?

Nimmo seems like an easier lineup move, can swap him with Lowrie in my projected lineup:

 

  • Amed Rosario - SS
  • Brandon Nimmo- RF
  • Robinson Cano- 1B
  • Wilson Ramos- C
  • Michael Conforto- LF
  • Todd Frazier- 3B
  • Jed Lowrie- 2B
  • Juan Lagares- CF

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You’d hope he leads off, but he’ll need to get his Obp up stick there long term.  He did lead off 58 games last year and definitely did well, but for his own standards.  .301 from the leadoff spot isn’t great

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They were going Rosario/McNeil/Nimmo/Conforto down the stretch last year.  Adding Cano and Lowrie. My feeling is they go McNeil/Lowrie 1-2 this year. Could be wrong.  People are worried about McNeils PT, i'm not really.

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Rosario is going to have to earn a spot in the top third of the lineup as it stands now. The Lowrie acquisition kind of messed things up. Roster Resource as Nimmo/Lowrie at 1-2 with Rosario batting 7th. He'll certainly have an opportunity to move up as I feel the Mets are 100% in on him, but that OBP has to rise this year for it to stick.

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Too bad Rosario can't play CF as well.   Lowrie could play SS and McNeil at 3B.   

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3 hours ago, Dakines said:

I see him as the leadoff hitter. He excelled there, and though I like Nimmo just as much as a player, if not more, I'd say Rosario's ceiling is higher, so why put his ceiling at risk?

Nimmo seems like an easier lineup move, can swap him with Lowrie in my projected lineup:

 

  • Amed Rosario - SS
  • Brandon Nimmo- RF
  • Robinson Cano- 1B
  • Wilson Ramos- C
  • Michael Conforto- LF
  • Todd Frazier- 3B
  • Jed Lowrie- 2B
  • Juan Lagares- CF

 

I do not see Amed Rosario as a lead-off hitter. I don't know what traits others particularly look for in a lead-off hitter, and I'm not saying he can't develop into that skill-set, but ideally I want my lead-off hitters to be much more like Brandon Nimmo than Amed Rosario. 

 

I don't really see how he "excelled" there necessarily. He had a .268/.301/.390 Slash Line with a 91 wRC+. He was a below average hitter and a .301 OBP is pretty bad from lead-off. I don't want my lead-off hitter having a .301 OBP. 

 

Amed Rosario looks like a 7 hitter to me, personally. 

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Need to give him some time and opportunity, imo.  If you look at his numbers in AA and AAA, he had OBP's of .374 and .367 respectively, and that was like at 20-21 years old.  Obviously adjusting to MLB pitching takes some time for most.  He played all of last year at 22 years old, in New York, on a team that struggled.  Hopefully they give him a chance to lead off in the spring and he can parlay it into a big season.  Lowrie has not been a traditional lead off guy, so Nimmo would seem to be the only other option.

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8 minutes ago, BigPapi44 said:

Need to give him some time and opportunity, imo.  If you look at his numbers in AA and AAA, he had OBP's of .374 and .367 respectively, and that was like at 20-21 years old.  Obviously adjusting to MLB pitching takes some time for most.  He played all of last year at 22 years old, in New York, on a team that struggled.  Hopefully they give him a chance to lead off in the spring and he can parlay it into a big season.  Lowrie has not been a traditional lead off guy, so Nimmo would seem to be the only other option.

 

Right, but he had high OBPs by nature of having very high BAs, not BB%'s. I like my lead-off hitter taking walks. 

 

You can say "only other option," but when we're talking about a .301 OBP, IMO, almost everyone on the roster is a better option. If this is my line-up construction or any line-up construction I think is logical, there's no way they keep him up there at that. 

 

And even if does hit better, I still want my lead-off hitter taking pitches and walks, ideally. 

 

You can give him opportunity batting 7th or 9th. He's playing everyday. He has plenty of opportunity. He does not have the traits I would want to see in a lead-off hitter right now. 

 

 

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You guys must be assuming McNeil will be on the bench often.

 

McNeil-Lowrie-Nimmo-Conforto-Cano seems like the optimal top 5. 

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31 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

You guys must be assuming McNeil will be on the bench often.

 

McNeil-Lowrie-Nimmo-Conforto-Cano seems like the optimal top 5. 

I think they'll still use Todd Frazier, more than they should probably.  And then you have Alonso coming up in June maybe.  I just don't see them starting McNeill in the OF much so that leaves him 2 to 3 starts a week.  

 

Your opinion on Rosario comes down to it you believe his last two months were because of luck or improved skills.  I'm somewhere in between, which fits better at the bottom of the lineup, likely 7th. But maybe 8th behind Broxton or Legeras.

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Will be interesting to see where Mets bat him early on in Spring. I doubt he's leading off or batting 2nd much, but it is possible. He has 10/30 upside at SS and is going for nothing, pretty high upside at that price.

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Nothing but a flier for stolen bases. Development isn't linear. He could provide huge dividends if he develops some power. Draft as a backup if you're interested. He's very talented but still very raw

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1 hour ago, dkrocka said:

Nothing but a flier for stolen bases. Development isn't linear. He could provide huge dividends if he develops some power. Draft as a backup if you're interested. He's very talented but still very raw

His value will be in the quantity of the stats.  Guys like this with really bad walk rates and not a super overly exciting hit tool rely on the 155 game, 600+ plate appearance to reach the windy, inconsistent road they take to stats.  If he does that he’ll likely be 80+ runs, 10+ HR, 60+ RBI, 30+ sbs.  The question is can he improve that awful SB and BB rate?  Those are key growth areas he needs to take, especially if he wants a top 3 lineup spot.

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Anyone gotten to the root of why he can't hit at all at home? I know even his incredible stretch late last season was comprised of predominately road games with huge numbers mixed in with absolutely garbage home numbers. This was a 65 wRC+ guy at home (103 road).

From August 1 on last season:

Home - 24 games, .507OPS, .108 ISO, 47 wRC+

Away - 29 games, .892OPS, .144 ISO, 141 wRC+

Could be small sample size here, but those are some of the biggest home/road splits you'll see.

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5 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

 

 

I think it is where he should hit, and it is a value killer. 

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7 hours ago, taobball said:

 

I think it is where he should hit, and it is a value killer. 

It is true, counting stats wise.  I still think they should let him run plenty even in front of the pitcher though.  We'll see I guess though.

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