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Jared Goff 2019 Outlook

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Looked like a bumblng fool the last 2 months of his sophomore season.

 

I own him in a dynasty and think the SB experience is good for his overall development but holy crap man - he has some work to do.

 

One of the worst SB QB performances ever - doesn't get more brutal.

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This was his junior season.

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There’s more than just “recency” involved here - there are legit concerns about his ability.

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9 hours ago, devaster said:

This was his junior season.

 

I know he is young but I am not sure he has winning super bowl qb in him.

 

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41 minutes ago, BMcP said:

There’s more than just “recency” involved here - there are legit concerns about his ability.

For fantasy though he isn't a bad option if his ADP tanks. A healthy Gurley means a healthy Rams offense.

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1 minute ago, devaster said:

For fantasy though he isn't a bad option if his ADP tanks. A healthy Gurley means a healthy Rams offense.

 

I’d feel more comfortable pairing him with someone - he has fairly drastic home/road splits, and pressure/non-pressure splits.

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49 minutes ago, MrWannaBee said:

 

I know he is young but I am not sure he has winning super bowl qb in him.

 

 

I don't think he does either, but lots of useful fantasy QBs have similar home/road, pressure/non-pressure, clutch/non-clutch splits.  In real life, he looks like a guy who can never carry the team on his back, but may yet get carried to a ring on the strength of his defense and a healthy Gurley in the near future.

 

For fantasy purposes, it doesn't matter if the greatest coach in NFL history has his number and is able to expose him on the world's biggest stage.  He doesn't play against that caliber of talent most weeks.  He's got two games each against the Cards and 49ers next season, for starters.  I like him paired with a high-floor guy you can roll out for tough matchups.

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14 minutes ago, BMcP said:

 

I’d feel more comfortable pairing him with someone - he has fairly drastic home/road splits, and pressure/non-pressure splits.

His home/road splits are concerning, but I think losing Kupp then Gurley was bigger. Yes, Anderson ran the ball very well in Gurley’s place, but he’s a non-factor in the passing game. Kupp was his Edelman. Those 2 really helped Goff rack up numbers with YAC because he doesn’t seem to be a great downfield thrower

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13 minutes ago, lvsaint429 said:

His home/road splits are concerning, but I think losing Kupp then Gurley was bigger. Yes, Anderson ran the ball very well in Gurley’s place, but he’s a non-factor in the passing game. Kupp was his Edelman. Those 2 really helped Goff rack up numbers with YAC because he doesn’t seem to be a great downfield thrower

 

I agree with much of this, but to be fair, throwing downfield has always been one of his strengths.  He was great at Cal in that department, and was one of the most accurate QBs on deep balls last season.  

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44 minutes ago, BMcP said:

 

I agree with much of this, but to be fair, throwing downfield has always been one of his strengths.  He was great at Cal in that department, and was one of the most accurate QBs on deep balls last season.  

Fair enough, I didn’t watch a lot of Rams games this year. Seems to me he’s great up to 15-25 yd routes that get some YAC,  then a little weak deeper than that

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It was a tough game for him to say the least, but with the game on the line in the 4th quarter he did drop a dime which should have been for the tying score and it was dropped.  The very next play will be the one that is remembered on the int.  

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32 minutes ago, bombers3shooter said:

It was a tough game for him to say the least, but with the game on the line in the 4th quarter he did drop a dime which should have been for the tying score and it was dropped.  The very next play will be the one that is remembered on the int.  

He also had a wide open Cooks on a beautifully designed play earlier in the 4th quarter and was late on the throw allowing a NE defender to get to Cooks to defend the pass. Assuming that wasn't the dime you were talking about. Goff only had a couple good throws the entire game. Delivery was slow and he looked scared.

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46 minutes ago, bombers3shooter said:

It was a tough game for him to say the least, but with the game on the line in the 4th quarter he did drop a dime which should have been for the tying score and it was dropped.  The very next play will be the one that is remembered on the int.  

That play was PI. While it was a drop and he should have caught it either way, his arm was being pulled down.

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21 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

That play was PI. While it was a drop and he should have caught it either way, his arm was being pulled down.

You're talking PI?.?.  I call that karma hahahahahaha

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2 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

You're talking PI?.?.  I call that karma hahahahahaha

 

Strange comment from a fan of a team about to embark on a full rebuild

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11 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

You're talking PI?.?.  I call that karma hahahahahaha

Doesn’t make it not PI. 

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On 2/4/2019 at 1:30 PM, Gohawks said:

"That play was PI. While it was a drop and he should have caught it either way, his arm was being pulled down."

 

As you say, it wasn't Harmon breaking it up or even Cooks dropping it. It was the fact that just as he attempts to catch it with both hands, Gilmore prevents him from getting his inside hand up. All the hand-checking that goes on with any given WR/CB battle, once Cooks is focused entirely on making the catch, Gilmore isn't looking back playing the ball, he's beat, it should've been called! Then on the next play, they try to go right back to the same thing, only this time the Patriots are in cushion coverage across the board & showing blitz. On the snap 3 of Goff's rec'rs run shorter routes. Goff is staring at Cooks the whole way down, Gilmore has his eyes clued on Goff & the ball. Gilmore is overplaying the very thing they're trying to go back to, but Goff just chucks it down there anyway? That isn't professional-level knowledge/read or execution.      

 

Another critical call was the holding penalty negating a 1st down run by Gurley into Patriot territory with the game still tied. 

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Cooper Kupp coming back should help him. Goff looked lost without Kupp most of the time.

 

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18 hours ago, dylanj said:

"Cooper Kupp coming back should help him. Goff looked lost without Kupp most of the time."

 

Kupp is a good player & does help but I think your premise is a reach. What their offense has lacked, for whatever reason, is an effective Todd Gurley. He's who they really didn't have this past Sunday. But as feared, not w/o some exception, while they didn't have him, it didn't open up ...anything, anywhere else, at any time. The INT discussed above is entirely on Goff. On the pre-snap he must recognize that Gilmore is eight yards off the ball. He continues to give ground on the post-snap, opens his hips to the inside so that he can focus solely on Goff & the ball.

 

The Rams are in a decent play, it's cushion man coverage & Goff's other three rec'rs all break off their routes in front of it. Plain as day, Gilmore isn't honoring anything else here, he's not accounting for Cooks to break off his route. He runs downfield to defend about the same spot as the play before. How did he know to overplay that? On the replay it's obvious that Cooks isn't even aware that the ball is coming. It's when he recognizes Gilmore's reaction that he then knows that it is. With his rec'r running right into the teeth of the coverage & equally problematic, the DB, 1st to know that it's coming, that's not a professional-level throw. 

Edited by markrc99

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For what its worth I was reading somewhere, maybe PFF, that Goff has been awful between the numbers in his last few games of the season and the SB. Teams were taking away the middle of the field. His throws outside the numbers are inaccurate. He is awful against pressure, but has a top OLine. Kupp's impact was probably felt over the middle of the field though (between the numbers). He was their best receiver in that area. Reynolds did not fill in that role well, nor was that probably his skillset.

 

Combine the loss of Kupp over the middle and defenses crowding the middle with whatever is going on with Gurley and it was a recipe for disaster.

 

At least we all know the Saints should have been the team in the SB and it would have made for a good game.

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On 2/7/2019 at 12:27 PM, devaster said:

"For what its worth I was reading somewhere, maybe PFF, that Goff has been awful between the numbers in his last few games of the season and the SB. Teams were taking away the middle of the field. His throws outside the numbers are inaccurate. He is awful against pressure, but has a top OLine. Kupp's impact was probably felt over the middle of the field though (between the numbers). He was their best receiver in that area. Reynolds did not fill in that role well, nor was that probably his skill set. Combine the loss of Kupp over the middle and defenses crowding the middle with whatever is going on with Gurley and it was a recipe for disaster. ..."

 

I wanted to check your source because I remember O'Hara and/or Billick breaking down the Rams offense, showing that one of the things they liked to do was flood either side of the boundary at every depth. Your article doesn't state that Goff struggled with throws to the perimeter. Another source (a chart) shows that he was very proficient at every depth/area with one exception, the 10-20 yd range for the z-slot primary. I think you're right about Reynolds, when they needed something, they should've had Cooks run the short zone. Perhaps they did? If Goff is their guy, I'd get him a dominant primary WR!

Lanky, narrow-framed & lean muscled, that's one part. The mental part, to me he doesn't seem to be as far along as a Carson Wentz or DeShaun Watson, not to suggest he won't be. But perhaps McVay is overrated some as his ability to bring QBs up to speed is seemingly behind him having or choosing to do all the thinking for them. I happened to check Kirk Cousins at playerprofiler & he hasn't done as well w/o McVay as his play-caller. Because he was 4th in pass attempts with a high completion %, he of course ranked in the top 10 in a lot of the volume & per attempt categories. I was surprised that they ranked his supporting cast as middling, that they don't separate very well. 

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Apart from struggling to his right outside the numbers on intermediate pass attempts (10-20 yards downfield), I don’t see any glaring issues with his perimeter accuracy:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theramswire.usatoday.com/2019/01/02/nfl-rams-jared-goff-passing-chart-stats-analysis/amp/

Edited by BMcP

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Posted (edited)

I'm thinking he is a good, maybe great, late QB play. Even if Gurley is spelled some, he should put up really good numbers.  He was QB6 last year with 4700/32/12 despite that 3-4 game late season stretch of nastiness. With Kupp back and assuming (yeah I know) he stays healthy...

Edited by bomont

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