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Jared Goff 2019 Outlook

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14 hours ago, bomont said:

I'm thinking he is a good, maybe great, late QB play. Even if Gurley is spelled some, he should put up really good numbers.  He was QB6 last year with 4700/32/12 despite that 3-4 game late season stretch of nastiness. With Kupp back and assuming (yeah I know) he stays healthy...

 

QB6? He was QB9 if you discount Week 17 stats and he was much closer to the QB12 (Cousins) than the QB5 (Watson)

He had 2 monster shootout games vs Minnesota (465/5/0) and the Chiefs (413/4/0) and an awful final 4 games. I think I would rather have someone like Ben or Rivers as my late round QB.

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Rivers or Ben will likely not be a $1 purchase. Yeah those last few weeks stunk, but he otherwise was excellent the rest of the year (just one other clunker). And this assumes a healthy Kupp, which I think was no small part of that bad ending. 

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Goff is one of the most overdrafted QB's.    I see him going 8th/9th and he's just so pedestrian, and there are always 5-6 equally pedestrian QB's sitting there two, even three rounds later.  

He's gonna be in the pressure cooker this year, and he won't have Gurley to lean on.  They'll mix in RB's, but they lost Saffold and got a peak OL season that's unlikely to recur.    Maybe the kid's gonna shine and i'm wrong, but I dont see him as worth even a modest premium.    If I'm auction, I nominate him during that later QB wave to get someone else to take him, and not chase the 4-5 guys I prefer instead.   

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7 hours ago, BrianM said:

Goff is one of the most overdrafted QB's.    I see him going 8th/9th and he's just so pedestrian, and there are always 5-6 equally pedestrian QB's sitting there two, even three rounds later.  

He's gonna be in the pressure cooker this year, and he won't have Gurley to lean on.  They'll mix in RB's, but they lost Saffold and got a peak OL season that's unlikely to recur.    Maybe the kid's gonna shine and i'm wrong, but I dont see him as worth even a modest premium.    If I'm auction, I nominate him during that later QB wave to get someone else to take him, and not chase the 4-5 guys I prefer instead.   

i agree with you totally, yet i can't disagree with you more.

what i mean is, goff is a competent QB---not exceptional, but not poor---but he's also a sean mcvay QB, and that elevates him significantly, as we've seen.

he's also a significantly better QB with cooper kupp on the field. last year, goff averaged 250 yards / 1.5 TDs per game when kupp was injured. with kupp, goff averaged just shy of 300 yards and 2 TDs per game.

the point about gurley is certainly to be considered in our rankings, but really gurley is absolutely playing, and it wouldn't surprise me to see gurley playing all 16 games, though his touches may decrease by 20-25% to save wear-and-tear on his arthritis.

considering the solid WR corps, the top-level backfield, and the coaching, i have no issues with drafting goff as my QB. my only wish is that either gerald everett or tyler higbee would simply go away, because individually they're worthless, but together---and noting they have almost the same exact stats----they netted 67 receptions, 618 yards, 5 TDs, which is top 6, top 10, and top 7, respectively. pretty decent that a QB / offense can support 3 WRs and a TE, all for the round 9 / round 10 price tag.

ImpartialUnhealthyAldabratortoise-size_r

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I just have a bad vibe about him coming off the horrid finish.   Head only looks at opportunity cost, doesn't think he's all that bad.  Gut says dont do it..   Good callout on Kupp though- I traded for Goff midseason last year and got the downside.   

Also, 100% on Everett/Higbee.   I can't wait to overdraft Everett when he signs a Trey Burtonesque deal with the Seahawks in a couple years.   

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Yep would appear kupp makes a huge diff. If you buy him being healthy, I'm all for Goff as a budget option QB. 

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I have Goff as my QB14. I see Brady, Mayfield, Wentz, Cousins drafted later, but I think I prefer all of those over Goff.

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Me either, not that that makes it wrong necessarily, and I'm higher on Goff than most I think, but Mayfield has such upside, where Gurley's situation and Goff's stumbling towards the end of the season has me a bit nervous on him. 

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22 hours ago, bomont said:

Mayfield drafted later than Goff??   :wacko:

Huh, yeah. I was looking at my auction sheet, not snake. In snake Baker gooes rounds ahead of Goff, in Auction they have a similar price according to fantasypros:

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/auction-values/calculator.php

But to be honest, I don't believe that either. So, my bad, I flubbed that one.

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Not at all. If you have a valid rationale for that ranking (subjective obviously), it's not like that's so way out. In fact as I read that and was replying I realized they aren't so far apart. I could easily make a case for either QB in general or ahead of the other. And I don't put much stock in the rankings of any one site or fantasy sites in general.

So stand by your man!  ;)

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30 minutes ago, bomont said:

Not at all. If you have a valid rationale for that ranking (subjective obviously), it's not like that's so way out. In fact as I read that and was replying I realized they aren't so far apart. I could easily make a case for either QB in general or ahead of the other. And I don't put much stock in the rankings of any one site or fantasy sites in general.

So stand by your man!  ;)

Maybe you misunderstood me? I said:

Quote

I have Goff as my QB14. I see Brady, Mayfield, Wentz, Cousins drafted later, but I think I prefer all of those over Goff.

The bit about drafted later was wrong (that was the bit I flubbed), but I still prefer all of those over Goff.

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Whoops, yeah, I thought you said you preferred Goff over Mayfield, not that you saw him rated higher. Which you didn't. 

Well I still say they are closer than I realized initially. Don't confuse me I'm confused enough lol

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Goff has 3 WRS ranked in the top 20.  No other QB can say that.  One could argue that the Rams may run slightly more pass plays to keep Gurley fresh.  As a Rams fan, he looked lost in the Super Bowl but with a healthy Kupp I would expect similar if not slightly better numbers.  

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I think too much is being made of a few bad games, esp when they were really important ones. But that doesn't mean jack for fantasy. You have to look at the whole picture and he did really well most of the year and yes I think losing Kupp, then Gurley gimping around, were both huge factors..trying to predict how many bad games, never mind when they will come, a player has is a fool's errand. 

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Jared Goff is not a good nfl qb, but unfortunately, landed in a good spot and is pretty solid for fantasy. I wouldn’t be surprised if Blake bottles beat him out though

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18 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Jared Goff is not a good nfl qb, but unfortunately, landed in a good spot and is pretty solid for fantasy. I wouldn’t be surprised if Blake bottles beat him out though

Uhhhh what?  Super Bowl contending qb is not a good NFL qb?  Don't tell Marino that

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

Uhhhh what?  Super Bowl contending qb is not a good NFL qb?  Don't tell Marino that

Is this seriously your argument? That he made it to the SB? Any qb that makes the sb must be good? Good thing bottles didn’t squeak out a win against the patriots that year

Edited by Panthers8912

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6 hours ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

Uhhhh what?  Super Bowl contending qb is not a good NFL qb?  Don't tell Marino that

gotta agree with @Panthers8912 here. case in point, peyton manning’s noodle-arm season of 2015, a win for SB50 over the cam and carolina panthers, but eli-type numbers at 2249 yards, 9 TDs, 17 INTs for manning on the season.

that said, a better argument for goff is his 300 yards and 2 TD average per game when cooper kupp was on the field, as this clearly shows [to me] that a sean mcvay goff is quite capable when he has 3 solid WRs.

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1 hour ago, Sack Exchange said:

gotta agree with @Panthers8912 here. case in point, peyton manning’s noodle-arm season of 2015, a win for SB50 over the cam and carolina panthers, but eli-type numbers at 2249 yards, 9 TDs, 17 INTs for manning on the season.

 

that said, a better argument for goff is his 300 yards and 2 TD average per game when cooper kupp was on the field, as this clearly shows [to me] that a sean mcvay goff is quite capable when he has 3 solid WRs.

Comparing golf to a Peyton manning on his death bed is like comparing apples to oranges, Peyton's body caught up with him but his cerebral approach was there in that game to not eff it up.  This was goffs third season, he's got great things coming ahead

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1 hour ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

Comparing golf to a Peyton manning on his death bed is like comparing apples to oranges, Peyton's body caught up with him but his cerebral approach was there in that game to not eff it up.  This was goffs third season, he's got great things coming ahead

Dude, you were the one bringing up Marino, implying (even though you were joking (a bit)) that to get to the Superbowl you have to be a great QB.

Manning 2015 was not. Flacco in 2012 was not, nor was Kaepernick. Goff is fine, not great. He has a great offense though, and he should have decent yardage.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

Dude, you were the one bringing up Marino, implying (even though you were joking (a bit)) that to get to the Superbowl you have to be a great QB.

Manning 2015 was not. Flacco in 2012 was not, nor was Kaepernick. Goff is fine, not great. He has a great offense though, and he should have decent yardage.

 

Flacco was absolutely brilliant that playoff run. Whatever you wanna say about him. 0 people in the world that watched that playoff run can deny his 4 game greatness. 

 

Kaep was also incredible under Harbaugh. Watch his playoff run again and try to convince me he wasn't. 

 

Manning is probably the most brilliant QB to ever play the game. He knew he was dead, but still made clutch passes when necessary and leaned on the best defense in the game. 

 

All that said... Goff might very well be a product of his system, but to deny what he's done because of a RUN HEAVY COACH IN A PASSING NFL is a bit short sited to me. 

 

I personally believe the book is still out on Goff. I think he has what it takes to be in the 7-11 range of QBs for a long time. I think he'll never touch the Aaron Rodgers or even cam Newton level (his super bowl year) , but he's right after that and far ahead of the Andy Dalton levels. 

 

You lose your #1 and #2 weapons when it matters most when you've got the most pressure you've ever been under your whole life it's not crazy to think you'd fail against a tried and true battle tested super bowl team. 

Edited by Dreams And Dwightmares
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4 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

gotta agree with @Panthers8912 here. case in point, peyton manning’s noodle-arm season of 2015, a win for SB50 over the cam and carolina panthers, but eli-type numbers at 2249 yards, 9 TDs, 17 INTs for manning on the season.

 

that said, a better argument for goff is his 300 yards and 2 TD average per game when cooper kupp was on the field, as this clearly shows [to me] that a sean mcvay goff is quite capable when he has 3 solid WRs.

Ooof I specifically didn’t use that example lol.

 

theres multiple reasons I don’t think Goff is good. I could actually point to his play in the SB, but obviously don’t want to judge a player on one game. Here’s a link to his ply action vs non play action splits. It seems like he’s more a product of mcvay than actually being good. He was also awful with fisher (most rookies would be, but still). Also every time I watch him I’m not impressed. Plays with Arguably the best rb in the game, best 3 wr set in the game, best HC, and top 5/10 OL? 

 

 

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Hard disagree with kaep being incredible. He was an above average qb that year on a great team. 

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