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Jared Goff 2019 Outlook

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5 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Ooof I specifically didn’t use that example lol.

 

theres multiple reasons I don’t think Goff is good. I could actually point to his play in the SB, but obviously don’t want to judge a player on one game. Here’s a link to his ply action vs non play action splits. It seems like he’s more a product of mcvay than actually being good. He was also awful with fisher (most rookies would be, but still). Also every time I watch him I’m not impressed. Plays with Arguably the best rb in the game, best 3 wr set in the game, best HC, and top 5/10 OL? 

 

 

To give some context to those splits... those are only his numbers from under center.

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I don't really care why he puts up his numbers, the point is he does, at least when Kupp is there. How important Kupp is or if that's partly coincidence is hard to know but assuming Kupp stays healthy I like Goff as a great cheap buy upside QB.

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8 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Ooof I specifically didn’t use that example lol.

 

theres multiple reasons I don’t think Goff is good. I could actually point to his play in the SB, but obviously don’t want to judge a player on one game. Here’s a link to his ply action vs non play action splits. It seems like he’s more a product of mcvay than actually being good. He was also awful with fisher (most rookies would be, but still). Also every time I watch him I’m not impressed. Plays with Arguably the best rb in the game, best 3 wr set in the game, best HC, and top 5/10 OL? 

 

 

i agree with you well enough if you're saying, "i don't think goff is good," but just like damien williams in kansas city, if you put an average guy into a well-oiled machine, the machine will elevate his performance. think of it as adding a nitrous tank to your honda accord for a drag race: it's a decent automobile that wouldn't be race worthy in another situation, but with that nitrous it's a rocket on wheels.

so i think that was the point i was making (or attempting to make) in my post: while goff might not be an outstanding QB, his performance is outstanding 1) within a sean mcvay offense, and 2) when cooks, woods, and kupp are on the field: 300 yards / 2 TDs is exactly the kind of average we're looking for in fantasy, right? (technically it's 293 yards and 1.9 TDs)

it's not outlandish to consider that if goff gets hurt, even blake bortles would produce well (ish) within the rams' offense. not something i'd like to see, but i believe mcvay and the tools around him elevate the QB. with that in mind, and considering LA and mcvay like goff, we may see goff perform above his actual skill-level for 10+ more years, which would be great, and we could expect his skill-level to rise as well. they're a fun team to watch. i consider goff an excellent buy in two-QB leagues as long as kupp's recovery remains decent.

FantasticCheeryBarnacle-size_restricted.

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I project Goff as a solid, if somewhat inconsistent, low-end QB1. Great deep WR group obviously and he could end up throwing even more in 2018 if Gurley indeed sees a significant drop in usage. I'm not going out of my way to get my hands on him but if Goff is there when I'm ready to draft my QB, I would have no qualms about rolling into 2019 with him as my starter. 

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On 7/11/2019 at 2:09 AM, Panthers8912 said:

In just the last 7 mins of Q4 or OT, however, Goff plummeted to 30th (76.8), while Mitch was 5th (115.4).

On 7/11/2019 at 3:28 AM, bomont said:

And?

If you play in a league that only counts the last 7 minutes of a game, draft Trubs over Goff. I thought that was obvious.

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Posted (edited)

While losing Kupp hurt Goff last year, I recall seeing analysis last year towards how defenses were adjusting to the Rams following the Rams bye week (which came prior to their first December game). Here's one example: https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2018/12/17/nfl-rams-eagles-jared-goff-defense-bye-week/

Overall, as has been noted, Goff wasn't good at the end of the season. Here are the specific stats for his final 8 games...
--Week 13: at Detroit: 17 for 33 - 207 yards - 1 TD - 1 INT - -2 rush yards
--Week 14: at Chicago: 20 for 44 - 180 yards - 0 TD - 4 INT - 5 rush yards
--Week 15: vs Philly: 35 for 53 - 339 yards - 0 TD - 1 INT - 11 rush yards
--Week 16: at Arizona: 19 for 24 - 216 yards - 1 TD - 0 INT - 6 rush yards - 1 rush TD
--Week 17: vs San Fran: 15 for 26 - 199 yards - 4 TD - 0 INT - 0 rush yards
--Divisional Round: vs Dallas: 15 for 28 - 186 yards - 0 TD - 0 INT - 12 rush yards
--NFC Championship: vs New Orleans: 25 for 40 - 297 yards - 1 TD - 1 INT - 10 rush yards
--Super Bowl: vs New England: 19 for 38 - 229 yards - 0 TD - 1 INT - 0 rush yards

So in those final 8 games: 165 for 286 (57.7%) - 1853 yards (231 yards per game) - 7 TD - 8 INT - 42 rush yards - 1 rush TD

That is...not good. If defenses found a way to game-plan against the Rams passing attack, it could be a long season for Goff owners. Now of course, Sean McVay has had a whole offseason to game-plan himself, and perhaps he'll be able to get Goff back on track. Having Kupp back can only help. But a potentially diminished Todd Gurley could have a huge negative impact on the team. He does have a fairly easy strength of schedule across the first 8 weeks of 2019, so if he does play well early, he could be worth trying to sell high before a more difficult back-half of the 2019 schedule. 

Edited by Corleone
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Outstanding post, Corleone.  I am issuing you an immediate ration of five gold stars.

I am very worried about Goff's outlook for 2019.  And, best believe, all of the Ram's opponents will be taking a deep dive into the film of that 3 pt Superbowl.

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Posted (edited)

I would still feel confident drafting Goff as a lower end qb1 this year.  I think he'll be fine especially with Kupp back.  I won't draft him too high but I'm not going to go out of my way to avoid him either.  I always wait on drafting a qb unless it's a 2 qb league especially this year and Goff and Jameis Winston are 2 lower end qb1's that I'll be targeting.

Edited by sjm76

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1 hour ago, Corleone said:

While losing Kupp hurt Goff last year, I recall seeing analysis last year towards how defenses were adjusting to the Rams following the Rams bye week (which came prior to their first December game). Here's one example: https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2018/12/17/nfl-rams-eagles-jared-goff-defense-bye-week/

Overall, as has been noted, Goff wasn't good at the end of the season. Here are the specific stats for his final 8 games...
--Week 13: at Detroit: 17 for 33 - 207 yards - 1 TD - 1 INT - -2 rush yards
--Week 14: at Chicago: 20 for 44 - 180 yards - 0 TD - 4 INT - 5 rush yards
--Week 15: vs Philly: 35 for 53 - 339 yards - 0 TD - 1 INT - 11 rush yards
--Week 16: at Arizona: 19 for 24 - 216 yards - 1 TD - 0 INT - 6 rush yards - 1 rush TD
--Week 17: vs San Fran: 15 for 26 - 199 yards - 4 TD - 0 INT - 0 rush yards
--Divisional Round: vs Dallas: 15 for 28 - 186 yards - 0 TD - 0 INT - 12 rush yards
--NFC Championship: vs New Orleans: 25 for 40 - 297 yards - 1 TD - 1 INT - 10 rush yards
--Super Bowl: vs New England: 19 for 38 - 229 yards - 0 TD - 1 INT - 0 rush yards

So in those final 8 games: 165 for 286 (57.7%) - 1853 yards (231 yards per game) - 7 TD - 8 INT - 42 rush yards - 1 rush TD

That is...not good. If defenses found a way to game-plan against the Rams passing attack, it could be a long season for Goff owners. Now of course, Sean McVay has had a whole offseason to game-plan himself, and perhaps he'll be able to get Goff back on track. Having Kupp back can only help. But a potentially diminished Todd Gurley could have a huge negative impact on the team. He does have a fairly easy strength of schedule across the first 8 weeks of 2019, so if he does play well early, he could be worth trying to sell high before a more difficult back-half of the 2019 schedule. 

 

I don't think anyone suddenly figured out Goff, I think it was, as you noted a couple of times, the loss of Kupp and likely the injury to Gurley that hurt Goff the most. 

Personally, I don't think Goff is all that good but when you surround him with a great system and great weapons he can succeed. So while I am not worried about defenses figuring him out I am worried about the Gurley situation and what happens if he loses a WR or the Oline suffers injuries. He isn't good enough to overcome those sorts of challenges. 

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40 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Outstanding post, Corleone.  I am issuing you an immediate ration of five gold stars.

I am very worried about Goff's outlook for 2019.  And, best believe, all of the Ram's opponents will be taking a deep dive into the film of that 3 pt Superbowl.

Thank you very much :) I'm worried about his 2019 outlook as well and agree that the SB film will be heavily dissected by opponents (along with film from their games starting with the Lions). More on that below...

35 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

I would still feel confident drafting Goff as a lower end qb1 this year.  I think he'll be fine especially with Kupp back.  I won't draft him too high but I'm not going to go out of my way to avoid him either.  I always wait on drafting a qb unless it's a 2 qb league especially this year and Goff and Jameis Winston are 2 lower end qb1's that I'll be targeting.

I think that's reasonable, though I currently have him as a higher end QB2 (as I don't have him ranked in the top 12). I have him around QB #15 or #16 (Winston is one of the guys I have ranked ahead of him). I could even end up going lower when it's all said and done. Put it this way, I had him in a 16-team league last year...and this year, I do not want him as my starter even in that deep league. 

30 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

I don't think anyone suddenly figured out Goff, I think it was, as you noted a couple of times, the loss of Kupp and likely the injury to Gurley that hurt Goff the most. 

Personally, I don't think Goff is all that good but when you surround him with a great system and great weapons he can succeed. So while I am not worried about defenses figuring him out I am worried about the Gurley situation and what happens if he loses a WR or the Oline suffers injuries. He isn't good enough to overcome those sorts of challenges. 

Here was another article that mentions defensive adjustments made against the Rams, with specifics on what the adjustments were:

"According to Ted Nguyen’s article for The Athletic, defensive coaches may have figured out a defensive fix for the Rams scheme.
Early in the year, the Rams relied on the outside zone run play to Todd Gurley to set up play action for big gains in the passing game.  According to Nguyen, defenses, starting with the Lions, used nickel personal and allowed the front six defenders (four down lineman and two linebackers) to flow with the direction of the offensive line in an attempt to stop the run.  The other five defenders, all defensive backs, maintain pass coverage.  The idea is that it allows the defense to not get caught on play action fakes and it limits the damage the Rams can do on play action boot-leg passes."


Whether it is defensive adjustments or some of the other potential situations that have been mentioned, I think you hit the nail on the head in that "he isn't good enough to overcome these sorts of challenges". 

 

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So I must be the only one that thinks he is actually good and will be for another 15 years.  Lots of the top QBs struggled badly down the stretch last year, and then put up weak stats in the playoffs.  Goff will be fine, if you watch the games you would know he has it. IMO one of the better pure passers in the league.  All QBs have a game like the bears one.  Why does he get such harsh reactions from it? Brees or Brady have a terrible game but it’s ok. I also remember him being extremely clutch in the tight games against the  Vikings, Seahawks, Chiefs, as well as the Saints playoff win.  Once again, if you watched these you would know what I am talking about.  He is the reason they won those games. He also almost pulled off the massive comeback from the Saints in regular season as well.  Most of the other games besides the Bears and Eagles, they weren’t even in a position to lose in the last 7 minutes.  

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38 minutes ago, SoxNation16 said:

So I must be the only one that thinks he is actually good and will be for another 15 years.  Lots of the top QBs struggled badly down the stretch last year, and then put up weak stats in the playoffs.  Goff will be fine, if you watch the games you would know he has it. IMO one of the better pure passers in the league.  All QBs have a game like the bears one.  Why does he get such harsh reactions from it? Brees or Brady have a terrible game but it’s ok. I also remember him being extremely clutch in the tight games against the  Vikings, Seahawks, Chiefs, as well as the Saints playoff win.  Once again, if you watched these you would know what I am talking about.  He is the reason they won those games. He also almost pulled off the massive comeback from the Saints in regular season as well.  Most of the other games besides the Bears and Eagles, they weren’t even in a position to lose in the last 7 minutes.  

 

It all comes back to his rookie season with Fisher and his Hard Knocks quotes. People saw those and just assumed he is dumb and bad, and nothing he will ever do will get that out of their heads.

Those who actually have seen the majority of his games though would recognize he is an excellent pure passer with tremendous potential and pinpoint accuracy from the pocket. His only weakness are mobility and pocket awareness when dealing with pressure. As time progresses, it is reasonable to believe the latter will improve. The sky is the ceiling.

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I think people are underestimating what a difference Kupp makes. If the WRs stay healthy and Gurley can even maintain 80-90% of his effectiveness all year, Goff is a great value. Granted those aren't tiny ifs.

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The interior line is a question mark right now.  I still think he performs well, but if you’re on the fence, that might be a tie-breaker.

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9 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Outstanding post, Corleone.  I am issuing you an immediate ration of five gold stars.

I am very worried about Goff's outlook for 2019.  And, best believe, all of the Ram's opponents will be taking a deep dive into the film of that 3 pt Superbowl.

 

Good thing that Mcvay is also allowed to look into that 3 point Superbowl. 

 

5 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

 

It all comes back to his rookie season with Fisher and his Hard Knocks quotes. People saw those and just assumed he is dumb and bad, and nothing he will ever do will get that out of their heads.

Those who actually have seen the majority of his games though would recognize he is an excellent pure passer with tremendous potential and pinpoint accuracy from the pocket. His only weakness are mobility and pocket awareness when dealing with pressure. As time progresses, it is reasonable to believe the latter will improve. The sky is the ceiling.

 

You absolutely nailed it. 

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I didn't see Hard Knocks with the Rams.
I have seen the majority of Goff's games.
Interesting assumptions in regards to those who have differing opinions on Goff though...

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I did not see Hard Knocks with the Rams either.  But I heard that Goff did not know the sun rose in the East and set in the West.  That's not a quip, that was a real thing.

Anyway I agree that Goff has a great arm.  But he has now been in the league for three years and still cannot read defenses that seems like a pretty troubling flaw.

And it was not a bad game here or there, as demonstrated by Corleone up thread, Goff was sub-par for an entire half season.  Possibly because defenses are starting to figure him out.

And I would probably say most of the Rams big wins down the stretch were because of the defense.  I did watch most of those games.

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How was it half a season he was bad? He had a rough 3 game stretch against lions bears eagles after the bye.  Had a 118 and 121 rating vs the cardinals and 49ers the last two weeks with 6 total TD’s and no INT.  Less yards but why throw a bunch extra if you don’t have too.  He was considered 3rd in mvp going into the bye after the chiefs game. 

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2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Anyway I agree that Goff has a great arm.  But he has now been in the league for three years and still cannot read defenses that seems like a pretty troubling flaw.

 

I'd love to know where you got this from. 

Mcvay gave Goff full ability to change the play at the LOS last year (after the headset cuts out, so don't bring up that stupid argument) and Goff did it plenty which led to a lot of success. 

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1 hour ago, afl5013 said:

 

I'd love to know where you got this from. 

Mcvay gave Goff full ability to change the play at the LOS last year (after the headset cuts out, so don't bring up that stupid argument) and Goff did it plenty which led to a lot of success. 

The Rams announced that Goff cannot read defenses.  Now getthefugouttahere.

For real though, my point is that Goff was entirely exposed in the Superbowl.  The secret's out.

 

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Posted (edited)

I think that Goff will be fine this year.  Maybe I'm biased because I took him as my qb1 in a draft yesterday but I just think that with Kupp back in addition to having Cooks, Woods and Josh Reynolds who is also decent, Goff should put up top 10 numbers at the very least with top 5 potential.  If Gurley's knee doesn't hold up, they're going to rely on the pass that much more.

Edited by sjm76
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

The Rams announced that Goff cannot read defenses.  Now getthefugouttahere.

For real though, my point is that Goff was entirely exposed in the Superbowl.  The secret's out.

 

 

Goff wasn't exposed in the SB anymore than Tom Brady was. The game was 3-3 for like 55 minutes and they finished with near identical production. It was one game decided by one drive.

Edited by MJJ28
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10 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Goff wasn't exposed in the SB anymore than Tom Brady was. The game was 3-3 for like 55 minutes and they finished with near identical production. It was one game decided by one drive.

Amen. And if Brandin Cooks didn’t drop that pass in the endzone (which he was interfered with on) we’d be talking about Goff as 24 year old Superbowl winning QB. Crazy recency bias on this one.

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