Iron-cock

Todd Gurley 2019 Outlook

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He won’t play at all in the preseason and hopefully can still be had for a bargain. 

With that type of offense he does not need 30 touches per week. I would rather him get 18 touches and stay healthy (like Kamara for example). 

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5 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

So your position is that arthritis is a static condition?  You get it and it never changes from that point forward?

Arthritis very well could remain constant without progressing. It could also disappear for a period of time, or worsen. 

Gurley just turned 25 years old. I think this is overblown is all. Like MJD said, every rb has arthritis to some degree. 

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25 minutes ago, dms80790 said:

Arthritis very well could remain constant without progressing. It could also disappear for a period of time, or worsen. 

Gurley just turned 25 years old. I think this is overblown is all. Like MJD said, every rb has arthritis to some degree. 

I'd love to know where you're getting this information. Arthritis almost always progresses, it's just a question of how fast. I have never heard of it "disappearing." 

And MJD is an idiot. Every RB does not have arthritis. 

That all said it's impossible to know how much or even if it will affect Gurley this year. The way he broke down last year and the Rams' efforts to fortify the RB spots don't exactly build confidence though. 

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5 hours ago, johnnyboy8102 said:

He won’t play at all in the preseason and hopefully can still be had for a bargain. 

With that type of offense he does not need 30 touches per week. I would rather him get 18 touches and stay healthy (like Kamara for example). 

 

It's a unique and sucky situation at the same time.

If you're drafting, and Gurley falls past Pick 10-12, that has the chance to be league-winning for whomevers drafting him.

 

this is the way i see this season playing for Gurley:

Gurley is going to still be THE GUY. He'll likely sit out 1-2 games near the end of the season once the Rams have locked up a playoff spot. Couple that with LAR cutting his workload down per game by about 4-6 touches, and definitely taking him out of more plays where he's not needed.

But I would not be sleeping on this guy...I have a hard time believing that the Rams are suddenly going to start sitting arguably the best running back in the league.

Gurley, in my eyes, should be going between Pick 6-10. Maybe somewhere around 7-8 since there's concerns about his durability.

But for those of you who draft him, I believe he'll be just as solid as Bell, someone who will be contributing 14-18 PPR points per game for their owners.

 

Gurley should not fall, under any circumstances, past Pick 14-15...

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2 hours ago, CORTEz said:

He'll likely sit out 1-2 games near the end of the season once the Rams have locked up a playoff spot. Couple that with LAR cutting his workload down per game by about 4-6 touches, and definitely taking him out of more plays where he's not needed.

Which is why he's a scary pick. IMO he will tear it up Sept/Oct, but after that who knows. He could get a team on the brink of the playoffs and crush them in the end. 

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9 minutes ago, bomont said:

Which is why he's a scary pick. IMO he will tear it up Sept/Oct, but after that who knows. He could get a team on the brink of the playoffs and crush them in the end. 

 

Exactly. I think first 10 games, he's going to be good for RB1 numbers...

If he's sitting there at Pick 11 or 12, you've got to seriously consider taking him, even if you don't like it. 

Why Yahoo still has him ranked in the 30's is beyond me.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, bomont said:

I'd love to know where you're getting this information. Arthritis almost always progresses, it's just a question of how fast. I have never heard of it "disappearing." 

And MJD is an idiot. Every RB does not have arthritis. 

That all said it's impossible to know how much or even if it will affect Gurley this year. The way he broke down last year and the Rams' efforts to fortify the RB spots don't exactly build confidence though. 

I said disappear for a period of time, not outright disappear. Reading comprehension is your friend.

Maybe MJD is wrong, but I would think he would know more about professional running backs than you or me even though he isn't a physician.

I get what you're saying about lacking confidence though, we could surely have a repeat of last year.

To me, the increased chance of injury for Gurley does not outweigh the difference in output from a full healthy season of Gurley vs. other RBs being drafted ahead of him and their (perceived) lower risk of injury.

Everyone can have their own assessment of this risk, all I'm saying is it's possibly being overblown due to recency bias.

Edited by dms80790
grammar

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11 hours ago, dms80790 said:

I said disappear for a period of time, not outright disappear. Reading comprehension is your friend.

Yes I know and understood what you said. My point stands. 

 

Quote

Maybe MJD is wrong, but I would think he would know more about professional running backs than you or me even though he isn't a physician.

Irrelevant since we aren't simply talking about RBs in general. As you pointed out, he isn't a physician, though you don't need to be to understand the stupidity in "every RB has arthritis."

 

Quote

Everyone can have their own assessment of this risk, all I'm saying is it's possibly being overblown due to recency bias.

Yeah maybe. I'm just saying he still isn't cheap and it's a "do you feel lucky" draft pick. He will make or break so many teams this year. 

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He has stage 3 osteoarthritis of the knee. Avoid him like the plague. There is currently no medication or therapy to reverse or stop the progression of this condition and there's a high likelihood of him aggravating it. The rams are clearly aware of the reality of Gurley's knee which is why they drafted an RB in the 3rd this year. Do yourself a favor and put Gurley on your DND list. 

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11 minutes ago, Komfy said:

He has stage 3 osteoarthritis of the knee. Avoid him like the plague. There is currently no medication or therapy to reverse or stop the progression of this condition and there's a high likelihood of him aggravating it. The rams are clearly aware of the reality of Gurley's knee which is why they drafted an RB in the 3rd this year. Do yourself a favor and put Gurley on your DND list. 

Source? 

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They gave him a lot of money not too long ago, and I imagine they had an army of doctors say it looks at least good for the length of the contract.  Doesn't it seem more like a heavy workload likely led to a breakdown and they're kicking themselves for it, and have made all the requisite moves to adapt a new plan, which includes Gurley as a freakin stud RB with fewer touches in an amazing offense? Sounds pretty good, but god these things drive me crazy.  I felt like I had a completely sound, big picture kind of view, and before I could submit this post I'm questioning it!

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12 hours ago, Komfy said:

He has stage 3 osteoarthritis of the knee. Avoid him like the plague. There is currently no medication or therapy to reverse or stop the progression of this condition and there's a high likelihood of him aggravating it. The rams are clearly aware of the reality of Gurley's knee which is why they drafted an RB in the 3rd this year. Do yourself a favor and put Gurley on your DND list. 

 

I am very interested in more details/support for this statement.  First time I've read an actual diagnosis on his condition.

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4 hours ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

I am very interested in more details/support for this statement.  First time I've read an actual diagnosis on his condition.

 

It's all going to be about pain tolerance for him.  
Another thing that isn't mentioned is that I believe he will have eliminated or greatly reduced any lower body weight lifting.  Leg press and curls for sure. 

And I also believe that anytime he does get significant carries in a game, there's a good chance that he will not be able to play the following week.

Assuming the diagnosis is correct.

 

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, K197040 said:

It's all going to be about pain tolerance for him.  

If it is indeed osteoarthritis, it's not just about pain, but also about (bit by bit) reduced flexibility. You could get inflammations under heavy usage, and you could start to get other injuries or problems by changing the way you walk or run, etc etc etc.

It's really not a question of popping a pill (or smoking a joint) before and after the game. They will have to monitor him closely, and if they still want to have him in January, they will have to spell him a bit.

If it is indeed osteoarthritis, of course.

I'm sure this was posted before here, but I hadn't seen this one yet:

 

Edited by Boudewijn
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am I the only one who thinks the worry surrounding Gurley is going to make him the steal of the draft?Even at 80% this guy is in the conversation for the rb1

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10 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

am I the only one who thinks the worry surrounding Gurley is going to make him the steal of the draft?Even at 80% this guy is in the conversation for the rb1

 

Nah, there are plenty saying this, but he's still a stay away for me. Mayyyyybe if he drops to the third, but an RB with these issues on a team that should cruise into the playoffs? Even if he carries your team early, I just see way too many scenarios in which he either doesn't play during the fantasy playoffs or has a severely limited role. If I'm in a ten team league, I take fliers on guys like this all day, he'll always be replaceable. But I'm not taking Gurley as one of my cornerstones in a 12 or 14 teamer. Unnecessary with all the other talent you could take instead that is guaranteed barring injury.

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24 minutes ago, kball09 said:

 

Nah, there are plenty saying this, but he's still a stay away for me. Mayyyyybe if he drops to the third, but an RB with these issues on a team that should cruise into the playoffs? Even if he carries your team early, I just see way too many scenarios in which he either doesn't play during the fantasy playoffs or has a severely limited role. If I'm in a ten team league, I take fliers on guys like this all day, he'll always be replaceable. But I'm not taking Gurley as one of my cornerstones in a 12 or 14 teamer. Unnecessary with all the other talent you could take instead that is guaranteed barring injury.

Agreed that the real risk is the injury flaring up near the end of the season and the Rams deciding to severely limit his role or hold him out altogether like last year.  If Gurley plays every game, shares touches, and consistently scores like 66% of what he did last year he's still a strong fantasy RB.  It's whether he'll still be playing at the same level at the end that scares me and I think others.

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Guess you always could cuff his backup and run with it that way, but Gurley sounds like he's gonna be a headache throughout the season. Feel bad for the guy...he looked great for a year and a half and what? That injury toward the end of the season tweaked things? Or did the knee ailment just catch up to him? Weird how fast it happened and then he has this outlook...

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, tpat30 said:

Guess you always could cuff his backup and run with it that way, but Gurley sounds like he's gonna be a headache throughout the season. Feel bad for the guy...he looked great for a year and a half and what? That injury toward the end of the season tweaked things? Or did the knee ailment just catch up to him? Weird how fast it happened and then he has this outlook...

 

Signs point to the ACL tear contributing to the arthritis. But yeah, sucks. I'm a UGA guy, dude was obviously a beast and the ACL injury stole that time. Then he blows up the NFL and this. At least he got his big contract.

And in regards to cuffing his backup, good luck with that. There's no definition there either. Coin flip on who would even take over if not both. I'd bet on Brown and he can still be had cheaper.

Edited by kball09

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, kball09 said:

Signs point to the ACL tear contributing to the arthritis.

That is indeed interesting:

https://drrobertlaprademd.com/arthritis-after-acl-surgery-knee-osteoarthritis/

Quote

However, despite surgery intended to stabilize the joint, individuals who undergo an ACL reconstruction have a 3 to 5 times greater risk of developing posttraumatic arthritis of the knee. Thus, it is important to develop early and effective interventions to prevent posttraumatic arthritis after ACL surgery for this population.

Not that it really matters. I mean, the Rams are so secretive about the whole thing we don't even know for sure it is arthritis. We don't even know 100% sure there is a real problem. Lots of things point to it, and I for one am staying away as far as I can, but we won't really know for a while what's what.

Edited by Boudewijn

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Joe Odam said:

am I the only one who thinks the worry surrounding Gurley is going to make him the steal of the draft?Even at 80% this guy is in the conversation for the rb1

 

hard to draft him in regular leagues, but im grabbing him in a lot of best ball leagues with 8 10 people, 12 i got him in one with henderson.

just seems really weird to pass him up in the second round ... ya know? ride those wheels til they fall off. i may not take a chance on him but i just might. 

tough cause he really could be the steal of the draft and take you to the ship

Edited by CABLE87

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i dont know what to believe but im really considering just riding this ship til he sinks and worry about it later ....lol seems like he looks good to me, if he gets taken early f--- it

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His best statistical days are behind him. Extremely hard to pick a guy who is a lock to take a downward hit when so many players are on the comeup.

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I'll be very happy to see someone else take him. Helped me to a title 2 years ago but even a 2nd round pick just does not seem worth the risk with the other top talent available in the 2nd who don't have an arthritic knee.

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