Iron-cock

Todd Gurley 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

I had originally written off Gurley as a high pick this season but as we get closer to draft time, I'm starting to see the potential appeal of pouncing on Gurley if he becomes a value pick.

Even for those of you who are concerned about his health, at what point in the draft does he become a no-brainer value pick?

Also, how high are you willing to reach for Henderson in the event that you do end up drafting TG? 

 

He was a value around 2.02 - 2.05 (IMO) which was his consensus ADP back in 2017 post Jeff Fisher. I think he's priced fairly well between 1.08 to 1.12 with the concerns highlighted in this thread (injury/workload reduction/offense regression). I wouldn't reach for Henderson at his current ADP because I'm aiming for a few players there (7.10) but I'd take Brown in the 11th or 12th (ADP at 13.12 atm). If Henderson falls to the 9th I would consider him there (news is that he's having trouble adapting to the offense but I can't find the source [still looking].

Edited by JSA2422
guy before me posted source

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I think he has to be taken in the 1.12-2.5 range.  You can’t let the top 4 pickers stack gurley with their elite back

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15 minutes ago, Rickydragon said:

I think he has to be taken in the 1.12-2.5 range.  You can’t let the top 4 pickers stack gurley with their elite back

I draft and sometimes he often drops to 23, very hard to not pick him. Imagine rolling out Barkley and gurley for your rbs and on top of that a wr like evans/allen/etc. Gives yourself 50/50 shot at winning.

 

 

 

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On 8/5/2019 at 12:58 PM, bomont said:

Yeah maybe. I'm just saying he still isn't cheap and it's a "do you feel lucky" draft pick. He will make or break so many teams this year. 

 

Just like any other player picked in the 2nd-3rd. And it's not as drastic as "do you feel lucky". I think his chances of being a bust are about the same as Fournette, A.Jones, Carson, etc.. I get the concern, but it's being overstated I think.

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On 8/13/2019 at 11:48 PM, Rickydragon said:

I think he has to be taken in the 1.12-2.5 range.  You can’t let the top 4 pickers stack gurley with their elite back

Shhhhhhh!

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Especially with today's report...Gurley shouldn't be falling outside of the Top-15. If he's there still past Pick 15...regardless of how much you hate the situation, you've gotta take him.

 

I still think Gurley is a lock for 1,300 APY along with 8 TDs.

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8 minutes ago, CORTEz said:

Especially with today's report...Gurley shouldn't be falling outside of the Top-15. If he's there still past Pick 15...regardless of how much you hate the situation, you've gotta take him.

 

I still think Gurley is a lock for 1,300 APY along with 8 TDs.

Out of curiosity, which report are you referring to? Is it the one about him clocking in at 21 mph? 

Thanks for sharing, if you wouldn't mind

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19 minutes ago, cbsholy said:

Out of curiosity, which report are you referring to? Is it the one about him clocking in at 21 mph? 

Thanks for sharing, if you wouldn't mind

 

I believe it was stemming from that report, but read somewhere (can't remember what fantasy site) saying that he looked really good in the work he was doing, and that he looked extremely healthy. I just remember someone today said he looked great, but that (obviously) fantasy owners are kind of "flying blind"

Obviously, that doesn't mean much until we see him in pads...

But if we keep hearing "he looks good" and nothing negative, having him fall outside of the Top-15 is going to be crazy.

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3 hours ago, CORTEz said:

but read somewhere (can't remember what fantasy site) saying that he looked really good in the work he was doing, and that he looked extremely healthy

Any chance it was McVay himself reporting this?

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That Mike Tyson quote about being punched in the mouth probably applies here - all good until 300lbs of nose tackle is diving at your knee and 240lbs of linebacker hitting you from the top.

3 hours ago, cbsholy said:

Out of curiosity, which report are you referring to? Is it the one about him clocking in at 21 mph? 

 

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38 minutes ago, DeliciousGravy said:

That Mike Tyson quote about being punched in the mouth probably applies here - all good until 300lbs of nose tackle is diving at your knee and 240lbs of linebacker hitting you from the top.

 

Yep, all it takes is one hit the wrong way and that thing can swell up and ruin the season.

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Posted (edited)

What worries me is his usage. If Rams get a lead Gurley isn't gonna get all those late TDs and yards this year. Not to mention how is he going to hold up as the season progresses? Players are supposed to look their best before the season. Plus his handcuff, if you believe it's Henderson, is rather pricey.

Edited by scheibler

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32 minutes ago, scheibler said:

What worries me is his usage. If Rams get a lead Gurley isn't gonna get all those late TDs and yards this year. Not to mention how is he going to hold up as the season progresses? Players are supposed to look their best before the season. Plus his handcuff, if you believe it's Henderson, is rather pricey.

 

And you don't even know it's him. So you either waste a high pick to handcuff him or you grab Brown late and you're also wrong.

Orrrrr, they end up splitting the load like the Eagles and everyone is pissed.

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1 minute ago, kball09 said:

 

And you don't even know it's him. So you either waste a high pick to handcuff him or you grab Brown late and you're also wrong.

Orrrrr, they end up splitting the load like the Eagles and everyone is pissed.

 

Interesting point. I've always liked Brown. 

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9 hours ago, kball09 said:

 

And you don't even know it's him. So you either waste a high pick to handcuff him or you grab Brown late and you're also wrong.

Orrrrr, they end up splitting the load like the Eagles and everyone is pissed.

 

+1 , exactly I personally wouldn't cuff him . Your gambling on his health anyways drafting him, might as well double down on that and hope for the best. With my luck I would cuff the wrong guy anyways lmao. 

9 hours ago, scheibler said:

What worries me is his usage. If Rams get a lead Gurley isn't gonna get all those late TDs and yards this year. Not to mention how is he going to hold up as the season progresses? Players are supposed to look their best before the season. Plus his handcuff, if you believe it's Henderson, is rather pricey.

 

Very interesting how many touches he gets to start and end the season. I sorta want the Rams to start him slowly, and ramp up his usage as the season progresses. I don't need elite numbers in the regular season, just for him to break down come FF playoffs. That's no good for me or the Rams irl . Sean McVay is smart coach and I believe he will go in this direction. 

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I fully expect Gurley to start strong. But owners better hope the Rams don't run away with the division again. They'll likely take any chance they can to lessen his workload before the playoffs.

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Todd Gurley is 25 years old.  I mean.  Age is on his side right now.  We talk about him like he is a crippling 30 year old.  Dude has a track record of being a stud 2017 through most of the season last year.  Enough said.  Guy runs for 65 yards and gets a TD in the Super Bowl and we might not even be having this conversation.  On the other hand, he does have a history of injuries....but even Tom Brady gets something torn up at some point.  We are talking about probably one of the league's beastiest if not THE BEASTIEST RBs in the NFL here.  

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If he actually played a prominent role in the Super Bowl, people would believe the PR from the Rams. But they've already lied through their teeth, so anything out of Rams camp must be taken with a 20 lb grain of salt. That's my main concern honestly. The Rams are not going to be honest about his status, they've already proven it.

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Yep. This is the hardest guy to call IMO. He should be great in Sept and Oct at least but as the season wears on who knows?  Clearly the Rams are full of it, declaring him "fine" in Dec last year too. Yeah right. Then they re-sign Brown and draft Henderson. Doesn't exactly inspire confidence. 

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Aside from his arthritic knee and the inability to fully trust anything the Rams say about Gurley's health I'm worried about that OL as well. Goff is one of the most ineffective QBs in the league when pressured and with the interior of the line being a concern I wonder how that might impact Gurley too. Could see defenses being a lot more aggressive against them.

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https://www.espn.com/blog/los-angeles-rams/post/_/id/40424/what-todd-gurleys-lightened-workload-means-for-malcolm-brown-darrell-henderson

 

What's worrisome about Gurley is that you don't know HOW they will limit him.  Obviously his practice reps are limited.  In a real game, is he on a pitch count?  Does he get 65% of the work?  But only if they are winning?  If they are losing, does he go all out?  I think what's clear is that they won't have him put the pedal to the floor to start the season and then just play until his knees can't take it anymore, because then they have a repeat of last year.  I think we're in for a year of Malcolm Brown and Henderson rotating in regularly into the backfield.

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^ That article and quotes within make me lean HEAVILY towards Brown over Henderson as the guy to have behind Gurley in that backfield.

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"Lightened workload"  ...hell...I am thinking that might be a positive.  Keeps Gurley fresher and playing longer.  I'll take a bit of regression for his current draft price...seriously...he was absolutely a ridiculous fantasy player...take a little off of his points and he is still an absolute stud.  

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Posted (edited)

"Per Bonsignore, Todd Gurley has looked "fabulous and healthy" all summer. " - from latest rotoworld blurb on Darrell Henderson

Anyone hear otherwise yet?

This guy is going to make or break teams this year.

Edited by Brownsfan74

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