Iron-cock

Todd Gurley 2019 Outlook

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13 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

Anyone else concerned that they are sitting Malcolm Brown for the entire preseason as well as Gurley?  I understand sitting the starters, but Brown is the backup.  Could be an indication that Gurley may not be ready and/or they plan on playing Brown a lot?  You would think they would play him a lot in the preseason to get the reps in, in case he has to step in for Gurley.  

It's strange.

 

No, they want them healthy and not risk an injury, a lot of teams do this

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38 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

Anyone else concerned that they are sitting Malcolm Brown for the entire preseason as well as Gurley?  I understand sitting the starters, but Brown is the backup.  Could be an indication that Gurley may not be ready and/or they plan on playing Brown a lot?  You would think they would play him a lot in the preseason to get the reps in, in case he has to step in for Gurley.  

It's strange.

 

I think this says 1) Brown is definitely Gurley's backup, at least on 1/2 downs, 2) They are comfortable with Brown and don't need to see anything from him at this time

I don't think it necessarily says anything about Gurley, but all the Rams have done since this issue came up last year is act like everything is just fine. I'm not buying any of their positive PR anymore.

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It's nuts that if Gurley comes back fine, someone is going to pair a rd1 stud with the best player in football FF. Ugh.

And he has so many potential cuffs, it makes it hard to even gameplan for that. HEnderson is next on the depth chart, and looked really good in the preseason games. Been a while since I've seen Brown or KElly.

 

 

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7 hours ago, Brownsfan74 said:

Anyone else concerned that they are sitting Malcolm Brown for the entire preseason as well as Gurley?  I understand sitting the starters, but Brown is the backup.  Could be an indication that Gurley may not be ready and/or they plan on playing Brown a lot?  You would think they would play him a lot in the preseason to get the reps in, in case he has to step in for Gurley.  

It's strange.

I own them both so I'm not worried.  

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On 8/11/2019 at 4:53 PM, Chardo said:

But that's a big If.  Can't remember a more high risk high reward player.  You're getting by far the best RB in the league, if he plays.  But a real risk of not playing.  

 

 I’m confused.  Is Barkley injured?

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I'm completely happy gambling on him in the mid 2nd round. His ADP in the NFC in recent 3 days is pick 18 thats after D.Cook and one pick ahead of Mixon. He fell to me all the way to pick 12 of the 2nd round in a recent draft. 

Look I get it hes risky. So are the majority of the RBs this season. If he can give me 70% of what he did last season in the 2nd round I'm going to be one tough team to beat esp if hes going to my RB2. 

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1 minute ago, buzzkilloton said:

I'm completely happy gambling on him in the mid 2nd round. His ADP in the NFC in recent 3 days is pick 18 thats after D.Cook and one pick ahead of Mixon. He fell to me all the way to pick 12 of the 2nd round in a recent draft. 

Look I get it hes risky. So are the majority of the RBs this season. If he can give me 70% of what he did last season in the 2nd round I'm going to be one tough team to beat esp if hes going to my RB2. 

 

Hell, he came back around to me early in the 2nd and I picked him up. He carries just as much risk as Cook or Mixon.  I keep saying it....the resume is there.  Like...he just isn't going to go away.  This is a guy that wants to be a hall of famer and the best at his craft...this dude is going to get fed this year. 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, buzzkilloton said:

Look I get it hes risky. So are the majority of the RBs this season.

No they aren't. In fact few carry the risk this guy does IMO, despite all claims "he is fine." Yeah he's fine NOW...what about in Nov or Dec?

 

Quote

If he can give me 70% of what he did last season in the 2nd round I'm going to be one tough team to beat esp if hes going to my RB2. 

Agreed, but it isn't even about 70%. It's about 0%ish. If he does a swoon later in the year like last year, you are SOL.

I'm so on the fence on this guy. I usually avoid risk reward when it comes to injury issues. But the payoff could be wow.

Edited by bomont
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1 minute ago, bomont said:

No they aren't. In fact few carry the risk this guy does IMO, despite all claims "he is fine." Yeah he's fine NOW...what about in Nov or Dec?

Agreed, but it isn't even about 70%. It's about 0%ish. If he does a swoon later in the year like last year, you are SOL.

I'm so on the fence on this guy. I usually avoid risk reward when it comes to injury issues. But the payoff could be wow.

 

Most fantasy football seasons end at around Week 15.  If Gurley carries a major load for my squad for 10 games, whether at the beginning or the end, that is a huge win for any fantasy squad.  

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Posted (edited)

I think a lot of the Gurley worry is recency bias. He's gonna have a lighter load and that needs to be factored in. But look at David Johnson. He's 2 years older, on a far worse team, with as much if not more injury history, yet he's a slam dunk to go earlier in your draft. I'm not letting Gurley get past 12. It's football. Any of these guys could get hurt. Give me the guy with the most talent.

Edited by fletch44
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11 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

Most fantasy football seasons end at around Week 15. 

I doubt it, but this doesn't change the overall point of not wanting to have a guy who gets you close to the finish line but not over it. If he falls apart, it will be before Week 15 IMO.

It's probably about cost for me. If he goes for less than expected because people are worried about injury, I might take a chance. If people see more the talent vs the injury risk and he goes more, not.

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9 minutes ago, bomont said:

I doubt it, but this doesn't change the overall point of not wanting to have a guy who gets you close to the finish line but not over it. If he falls apart, it will be before Week 15 IMO.

It's probably about cost for me. If he goes for less than expected because people are worried about injury, I might take a chance. If people see more the talent vs the injury risk and he goes more, not.

 

I'm ancy to see what happens. 

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, bomont said:

No they aren't. In fact few carry the risk this guy does IMO, despite all claims "he is fine." Yeah he's fine NOW...what about in Nov or Dec?

 

Agreed, but it isn't even about 70%. It's about 0%ish. If he does a swoon later in the year like last year, you are SOL.

I'm so on the fence on this guy. I usually avoid risk reward when it comes to injury issues. But the payoff could be wow.

 

Cook has never been healthy. Chubb has Hunt coming back.  Mixons offense is crap. KJ plays for the lions and has had tons of injuries and is a question for goalline work. Fournette injuries. Mack 3rd down work and upside. Jones injuries and is he getting all the work. MG3 and Zeke hold outs. Freeman hurt last year. Henry is banged up now and cant catch. Then you've got a couple rookies on the rise who are in RBBC.

Seems like a risky group of Rbs to me! 

Edited by buzzkilloton
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12 hours ago, poofinger said:

 I’m confused.  Is Barkley injured?

He scored more points in 14 games than Barkley did in 16 last year, I have no idea what point you're trying to make, especially in bumping a 2 week old post. He basically said that if Gurley is 100%, possible or not, he's the best RB in the league, and for fantasy he's absolutely right.

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3 hours ago, miasma16 said:

He scored more points in 14 games than Barkley did in 16 last year, I have no idea what point you're trying to make, especially in bumping a 2 week old post. He basically said that if Gurley is 100%, possible or not, he's the best RB in the league, and for fantasy he's absolutely right.

 

Oh.  Right. Being the best running back in real life is the same as being the best running back in fake football.  Got it.  I’ll show myself the door.  

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Just now, poofinger said:

Oh.  Right. Being the best running back in real life is the same as being the best running back in fake football.  Got it.  I’ll show myself the door.  

Are you lost? This is a fantasy football forum.

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2 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Are you lost? This is a fantasy football forum.

 

The quote was “by far the best RB in the league” 

 

 

not “by far the best fantasy football RB in the league” 

 

anyhow. Barkley is the best fantasy and real RB in the league.  

 

Good night. 

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1 minute ago, poofinger said:

The quote was “by far the best RB in the league” 

Which Barkley isn't, either. Again, why bump a thread that's been dead for 2 weeks just to try to start an argument by making an incorrect statement?

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1 minute ago, miasma16 said:

Which Barkley isn't, either. Again, why bump a thread that's been dead for 2 weeks just to try to start an argument by making an incorrect statement?

You’re delusional if you don’t think Barkley is the best RB in football. 

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Just now, Gohawks said:

You’re delusional if you don’t think Barkley is the best RB in football. 

 

5 minutes ago, poofinger said:

The quote was “by far the best RB in the league” 

 

3 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Which Barkley isn't, either. Again, why bump a thread that's been dead for 2 weeks just to try to start an argument by making an incorrect statement?

I'll even give you a second try.

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23 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

 

 

I'll even give you a second try.

 

 

Just go read what Gohawks said. 

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Y’all taking him in the second round...

I took him 9 overall. He’s the best fantasy back when healthy no discussion. Look at the numbers last year. 

Obviously the knee is a concern but that’s factored into his ADP. Even if his touches go down significantly on this offense he can still put up top 5 RB numbers (look at Kamara). Who are you gonna take when the top tier is gone at RB? Johnson with his awful team? Mixon with an equally awful team? Conner with a potentially disruptive Samuels? Chubb with a pro bowler set to come back during fantasy playoffs? Cook with his own knees? Bell on a new team and no in game experience in well over a year? 

Every guy has a serious question or two after the first tier. The difference is we know who Gurley is when on the field and that’s the best player in fantasy. Even if there’s an increased split with an elite offense, elite talent, and GL work he will finish top 5. If he’s out just take Henderson in round 7 or 8.

Thats at least my thought process. Recency bias is strong with Gurley.  

 

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Y’all taking him in the second round...

I took him 9 overall. He’s the best fantasy back when healthy no discussion. Look at the numbers last year. 

Obviously the knee is a concern but that’s factored into his ADP. Even if his touches go down significantly on this offense he can still put up top 5 RB numbers (look at Kamara). Who are you gonna take when the top tier is gone at RB? Johnson with his awful team? Mixon with an equally awful team? Conner with a potentially disruptive Samuels? Chubb with a pro bowler set to come back during fantasy playoffs? Cook with his own knees? Bell on a new team and no in game experience in well over a year? 

Every guy has a serious question or two after the first tier. The difference is we know who Gurley is when on the field and that’s the best player in fantasy. Even if there’s an increased split with an elite offense, elite talent, and GL work he will finish top 5. If he’s out just take Henderson in round 7 or 8.

Thats at least my thought process. Recency bias is strong with Gurley.  

 

Personally, after the top 4 RB's are gone, I'm shifting to a top 4 WR, then grab your question marked filled RB in the 2nd.

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5 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Y’all taking him in the second round...

I took him 9 overall. He’s the best fantasy back when healthy no discussion. Look at the numbers last year. 

Obviously the knee is a concern but that’s factored into his ADP. Even if his touches go down significantly on this offense he can still put up top 5 RB numbers (look at Kamara). Who are you gonna take when the top tier is gone at RB? Johnson with his awful team? Mixon with an equally awful team? Conner with a potentially disruptive Samuels? Chubb with a pro bowler set to come back during fantasy playoffs? Cook with his own knees? Bell on a new team and no in game experience in well over a year? 

Every guy has a serious question or two after the first tier. The difference is we know who Gurley is when on the field and that’s the best player in fantasy. Even if there’s an increased split with an elite offense, elite talent, and GL work he will finish top 5. If he’s out just take Henderson in round 7 or 8.

Thats at least my thought process. Recency bias is strong with Gurley.  

 

Id take Chubb & Conner over him

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Posted (edited)
On 8/24/2019 at 10:43 AM, bomont said:

Agreed, but it isn't even about 70%. It's about 0%ish. If he does a swoon later in the year like last year, you are SOL.

I'm so on the fence on this guy. I usually avoid risk reward when it comes to injury issues. But the payoff could be wow.

 

If you cuff him properly, 0% is survivable.  Your cuff might even go crazy, if what we saw from CJ Anderson in this offense is an indication.

0% wouldn't be the biggest worry.  50% is the worst situation, because neither Gurley nor your cuff would be very good and you'd have a hard time picking which one to start.

There are issues of course with the cuff.  Who is it, will there be a timeshare, etc.  But if there is a clear one (I think it's Malcolm Brown) then you have some safety.

Also, I'm not saying that your team wouldn't take a hit.  Anytime your starter goes down and you're using your cuff, your team take a hit.  What I'm saying is that it's not going to completely torpedo your season.  You can remain competitive.

Edited by Brownsfan74

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