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urban2014

Jimmy Garoppolo 2019 Outlook

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Might be the sleeper that everyone wants to get

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He has 13 games against sub par pass defenses next year. I don't see why he can't be a top 10 fantasy qb next year. If he does end up with AB, he could even be higher. He has some weapons around him and hopefully Mckinnion can bounce back as well.

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He even gonna get drafted? I'm out unless it's one of the last rounds.

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This year, the wisest Fantasy play on QBs in the draft was to be the last one to take a guy, then double up in the 13-16 ranked area.  This yielded Rivers, Mahomes, Roethlisberger, Ryan, etc.  Those guys probably Quarterbacked a vast amount of Championship teams.

 

I see no reason why Garoppolo wouldn't be an asset with the same approach in 2019.  His upside is 2016 Matt Ryan.

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31 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

This year, the wisest Fantasy play on QBs in the draft was to be the last one to take a guy, then double up in the 13-16 ranked area.  This yielded Rivers, Mahomes, Roethlisberger, Ryan, etc.  Those guys probably Quarterbacked a vast amount of Championship teams.

I usually don't even bother taking a qb until at least pick 100. Last year I took Mahomes,  the year before was Wentz and 2016 was Matty Ice. Honestly I would take Justin Tucker or Greg the leg before a qb. Jimmy G if healthy is going to have a decent year.

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37 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

This year, the wisest Fantasy play on QBs in the draft was to be the last one to take a guy, then double up in the 13-16 ranked area.  This yielded Rivers, Mahomes, Roethlisberger, Ryan, etc.  

 

This is true every year. 

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Jimmy needs another weapon other than Kittle. Please go to San Fran Antonio!

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6 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

I usually don't even bother taking a qb until at least pick 100. Last year I took Mahomes,  the year before was Wentz and 2016 was Matty Ice. Honestly I would take Justin Tucker or Greg the leg before a qb. Jimmy G if healthy is going to have a decent year.

please share your 2019 target since you’ve batted 100% the past few seasons.

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6 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

I usually don't even bother taking a qb until at least pick 100. Last year I took Mahomes,  the year before was Wentz and 2016 was Matty Ice. Honestly I would take Justin Tucker or Greg the leg before a qb. Jimmy G if healthy is going to have a decent year.

 

Well let's not go overboard. QB is watered down but you are still taking one before a kicker. Take a kicker last. Always. 

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8 hours ago, psygolf said:

please share your 2019 target since you’ve batted 100% the past few seasons.

 

Dak. 19 tds and 4 turnovers from the titans game on. Hate the cowboys, but since Amari trade. Schedule as of now is extremely pass friendly next year. They do have 1 tough road game, being Chicago.

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18 hours ago, urban2014 said:

Might be the sleeper that everyone wants to get


Probably not season-long fantasy relevant in most leagues (e.g. 12 team 1QB leagues with typical settings) as a draft target although he'll probably be a great pick in daily matchups presuming his price is right.  For season long there's too many other options even as a backup; examples of guys with a current (Jan '19) ADP higher than JimmyG are Dak, Cousins, Stafford and all those guys have actually history of performing at QB1 levels that JimmyG just can't match.  Further down the list there's even more guys well as some guys who I'd still probably take as my QB2 or even QB3 over Garropolo due to larger sample sizes such as Marriotta, Dalton, and Carr.  If he comes back post-injury and is able to go super-saiyan and evolve into Mahomes v2 then I'll gladly eat crow; but his current ADP or ~QB20 seems about right if even a touch too high.

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1 hour ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

 

Dak. 19 tds and 4 turnovers from the titans game on. Hate the cowboys, but since Amari trade. Schedule as of now is extremely pass friendly next year. They do have 1 tough road game, being Chicago.

 

Dak stinks.

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14 minutes ago, jumper said:


Probably not season-long fantasy relevant in most leagues (e.g. 12 team 1QB leagues with typical settings) as a draft target although he'll probably be a great pick in daily matchups presuming his price is right.  For season long there's too many other options even as a backup; examples of guys with a current (Jan '19) ADP higher than JimmyG are Dak, Cousins, Stafford and all those guys have actually history of performing at QB1 levels that JimmyG just can't match.  Further down the list there's even more guys well as some guys who I'd still probably take as my QB2 or even QB3 over Garropolo due to larger sample sizes such as Marriotta, Dalton, and Carr.  If he comes back post-injury and is able to go super-saiyan and evolve into Mahomes v2 then I'll gladly eat crow; but his current ADP or ~QB20 seems about right if even a touch too high.

 

I disagree with just about everything in this post.  Stafford?  Where is the upside in Matthew Stafford?  Dalton and Carr?

 

Top 20 for Garoppolo?  They scored on 65% of the team's possessions when he was playing in 2017, and he's playing for one of the best offensive minds in the game.  I think that other fella Mullens who took over for the Niners last year exceeded Top 20.  Mullens projected over 16 games was 4,500 Yds and 26 TD, and he's not even in competition for the job.

 

So if Garoppolo puts up the best statistics in the history of the game and matches Patrick Mahomes, you'll eat crow?  Way to go out on a limb.  If he stays healthy, which is a big if, he's top 10 in a mediocre season in that offense, with top 5 upside, especially if Antonio Brown lands there.

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2 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

 

Dak. 19 tds and 4 turnovers from the titans game on. Hate the cowboys, but since Amari trade. Schedule as of now is extremely pass friendly next year. They do have 1 tough road game, being Chicago.

 

LOL. How do you know the strength of schedule for the 2019 season when free agency or the draft haven't even happened yet?

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There's some logic here to seeing value- he'll slip behind the top QB's and get forgotten in the typical leagues where QB's aren't prioritized.    There's not much reason to fear an issue with his knee since it was fairly early in the season, and one would think their weapons are better than he had in September, just 

 

That said, i'm still probably not really going nuts here.   If i can snag him for 2 or 3 bucks in my auction, assuming I'm happy with my team enough to that point to want a 2nd QB, fine.   I wont make a point to get him though.     Fell hard last year and that didn't work out, and while he was injured, he was struggling plenty before that went down

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2 hours ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

I disagree with just about everything in this post.  Stafford?  Where is the upside in Matthew Stafford?  Dalton and Carr?

 

Top 20 for Garoppolo?  They scored on 65% of the team's possessions when he was playing in 2017, and he's playing for one of the best offensive minds in the game.  I think that other fella Mullens who took over for the Niners last year exceeded Top 20.  Mullens projected over 16 games was 4,500 Yds and 26 TD, and he's not even in competition for the job.

 

So if Garoppolo puts up the best statistics in the history of the game and matches Patrick Mahomes, you'll eat crow?  Way to go out on a limb.  If he stays healthy, which is a big if, he's top 10 in a mediocre season in that offense, with top 5 upside, especially if Antonio Brown lands there.

 

You're not aiming for upside with Stafford or Dalton, it's a loss aversion pick (especially Stafford since he's been very durable) as a backup/QB2 in a standard 12-team QB1 league like I said.  If you want to take him as your QB1 in such a league feel free, I doubt you'll have a ton of competition in your auction for him.  I personally wouldn't feel comfortable with him as my QB1 unless I was planning to mix-and-match him with as the junior partner with a QB1 in the ADP range of 100 or over (Big Ben, Wentz, etc) and hope for a repeat of the guys who drafted a Big Ben/Mahomes combo in 2018.  Even so I wouldn't devote a bunch of draft capital to it. 

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52 minutes ago, BrianM said:

There's some logic here to seeing value- he'll slip behind the top QB's and get forgotten in the typical leagues where QB's aren't prioritized.    There's not much reason to fear an issue with his knee since it was fairly early in the season, and one would think their weapons are better than he had in September, just 

 

That said, i'm still probably not really going nuts here.   If i can snag him for 2 or 3 bucks in my auction, assuming I'm happy with my team enough to that point to want a 2nd QB, fine.   I wont make a point to get him though.     Fell hard last year and that didn't work out, and while he was injured, he was struggling plenty before that went down

 

That's fine to think "he'll slip and be forgotten" but why should we prioritize JimmyG for this when there's tons of players who could be in the same boat? You could literally substitute any player name and the "logic" would still hold;  "Crowell will slip behind the top RBs and *could* have Top 5 upside."  I've not yet seen a case made where JimmyG has some special situation which makes him MORE likely to return surplus draft value than any other player who might slip, the mere fact he's a QB who might slip in ADP doesn't make him more valuable than a TE who slips or even a kicker. 

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38 minutes ago, jumper said:

 

That's fine to think "he'll slip and be forgotten" but why should we prioritize JimmyG for this when there's tons of players who could be in the same boat? You could literally substitute any player name and the "logic" would still hold;  "Crowell will slip behind the top RBs and *could* have Top 5 upside."  I've not yet seen a case made where JimmyG has some special situation which makes him MORE likely to return surplus draft value than any other player who might slip, the mere fact he's a QB who might slip in ADP doesn't make him more valuable than a TE who slips or even a kicker. 

 

What? Pointing to a player who you think might have sneaky upside to outperform his ADP is not the same as attaching the same logic to "literally any player". If I think Garoppolo is in for a good year and see he has a low ADP, that is value to me. Just because someone feels like way about Garoppolo doesnt mean they would feel that way about Chris Hogan or more specifically, your strange example of Isiah Crowell.

 

Am I missing something here?

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11 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

What? Pointing to a player who you think might have sneaky upside to outperform his ADP is not the same as attaching the same logic to "literally any player". If I think Garoppolo is in for a good year and see he has a low ADP, that is value to me. Just because someone feels like way about Garoppolo doesnt mean they would feel that way about Chris Hogan or more specifically, your strange example of Isiah Crowell.

 

Am I missing something here?

 

Well it would help if you provided some context why you thought he had sneaky upside to outperform. "Coming back from injury" doesn't really count. Has there been a development which would be the catalyst for outperformance?  Examples might be a change in coaches, offensive scheme, significant personnel acquisitions (like a WR or OL)? Or have significant adverse events occurred to likely opponents next year that will make it significantly easier for him next year (e.g. Aaron Donald traded to an AFC team, making the two times they play the Rams an easier task)? 


Absent that could you provide some context why you think his peers in that range don't have a similar upside opportunity?  For example, why would JimmyG have sneaky upside but (insert random player in the QB15+ ADP range here) does not?  Or why the ADP rankings are incorrect and JimmyG is being ranked unfairly low?  

 

Again, not trying to imply you're wrong or that JimmyG doesn't have upside, but absent given some reason for the upside the prediction is mostly vaporware. 

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1 minute ago, jumper said:

 

Well it would help if you provided some context why you thought he had sneaky upside to outperform. "Coming back from injury" doesn't really count. Has there been a development which would be the catalyst for outperformance?  Examples might be a change in coaches, offensive scheme, significant personnel acquisitions (like a WR or OL)? Or have significant adverse events occurred to likely opponents next year that will make it significantly easier for him next year (e.g. Aaron Donald traded to an AFC team, making the two times they play the Rams an easier task)? 


Absent that could you provide some context why you think his peers in that range don't have a similar upside opportunity?  For example, why would JimmyG have sneaky upside but (insert random player in the QB15+ ADP range here) does not?  Or why the ADP rankings are incorrect and JimmyG is being ranked unfairly low?  

 

Again, not trying to imply you're wrong or that JimmyG doesn't have upside, but absent given some reason for the upside the prediction is mostly vaporware. 

 

 

 - 2017 Garoppolo Niners - 65% scoring rate, which is off the charts

 - 2018 Nick Mullens - paced for 4,500 yards and 26 TD on a dreadful team

 - Garoppolo > Mullens

 - Kyle Shanahan produces offense, everywhere he's been, no matter what he has to work with his offense competes.  In my opinion he's the best playcaller in the NFL.

 

I don't think Jimmy G needs a development necessarily, just to play the games.  His stats will be there.  But one key "development" would be the infusion of talent he'll will hopefully have to work with.

 - The potential of AB joining is a huge variable, but they'll undoubtedly add to their WR group in the offseason regardless, hopefully moving Goodwin back to where he          belongs as a 3rd WR.

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20 minutes ago, jumper said:

 

Well it would help if you provided some context why you thought he had sneaky upside to outperform. "Coming back from injury" doesn't really count. Has there been a development which would be the catalyst for outperformance?  Examples might be a change in coaches, offensive scheme, significant personnel acquisitions (like a WR or OL)? Or have significant adverse events occurred to likely opponents next year that will make it significantly easier for him next year (e.g. Aaron Donald traded to an AFC team, making the two times they play the Rams an easier task)? 


Absent that could you provide some context why you think his peers in that range don't have a similar upside opportunity?  For example, why would JimmyG have sneaky upside but (insert random player in the QB15+ ADP range here) does not?  Or why the ADP rankings are incorrect and JimmyG is being ranked unfairly low?  

 

Again, not trying to imply you're wrong or that JimmyG doesn't have upside, but absent given some reason for the upside the prediction is mostly vaporware. 

 

I never said either of those things, so I don't understand where your assumption comes from? Would you mind showing me where I said what you're quoting me on? My saying "If I think...isn't the same as..." was meant as a general blanket statement.

 

I was just pointing out that just because someone thinks one player has value and can outperform his ADP, doesn't mean you can apply that logic to all players such as your example of Crowell.

Edited by ThreadKiller

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3 hours ago, jumper said:

 

That's fine to think "he'll slip and be forgotten" but why should we prioritize JimmyG for this when there's tons of players who could be in the same boat? You could literally substitute any player name and the "logic" would still hold;  "Crowell will slip behind the top RBs and *could* have Top 5 upside."  I've not yet seen a case made where JimmyG has some special situation which makes him MORE likely to return surplus draft value than any other player who might slip, the mere fact he's a QB who might slip in ADP doesn't make him more valuable than a TE who slips or even a kicker. 

 

Well, yeah, i did lazily not point out why there's that sneakiness to him- but i just didnt feel like hashing it out, i thought it was common knowledge so i didnt bother typing a novel.   Also, the second part of my post tells you that I'm kind of "whatever, man" about the whole thing.   I was one of his biggest rah rahers last summer, just didnt feel like it again. 

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6 hours ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

LOL. How do you know the strength of schedule for the 2019 season when free agency or the draft haven't even happened yet?

 

To be fair, he did say "as of now", acknowledging that things can change. 

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9 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

 

Dak. 19 tds and 4 turnovers from the titans game on. Hate the cowboys, but since Amari trade. Schedule as of now is extremely pass friendly next year. They do have 1 tough road game, being Chicago.

If he sustains that pace, it projects to a 4200-4300yd, 23 passing tds + 8 rushing tds.    Reasonable QB1 numbers.

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