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bradwatson

Rafael Devers 2019 Outlook

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9 hours ago, absknicks said:

...his ISO is currently sitting at .118

 

ISO is one of the dumber saber stats though. Devers' ISO is low mainly because he's cut way down on the strikeouts and is hitting .336, both of which are very good things.

For example, Tony Gwynn, one of the best hitters of all time, had a career ISO of .120. I think Red Sox fans would be satisfied with Wade Boggs at 3rd for another 10-15 years. Boggs' career ISO was .115.

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It's not like you can't cut down on your strikeouts and still maintain some power. If you're cutting down on strikeouts at the expense of power- that's not necessarily a good thing. And he's hitting .336 because of BABIP luck.

Don't get me wrong, his approach has improved and it's nice to see he has a pulse after last season but he needs to hit for more power. 

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8 minutes ago, absknicks said:

...And he's hitting .336 because of BABIP luck...

 

Striking out less often means putting the ball in play more often, which means getting more hits.

I'm not saying his batting average won't normalize. But if/when it does, so will his ISO. Which is why that isn't my favorite saber stat.

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Posted (edited)

I'm looking at launch angle percentage. Someone pointed out that it was 3.7% when he had 0 home runs. As of recently, it went up to 8% or so. League average was 13% or something I believe. He has the power, but it was a matter of putting it up in the air to get it out. You can't get it out if you're hitting it hard into the ground. 

Edited by hangin n wangin

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I mean, he's on pace for over 200 hits, a .335 avg. 72BB, 109 runs, 85 RBI and 20 SB, and he hasn't even found his power stroke yet. I think his SB total will even out a bit, but his HR numbers will take off as it warms up. It looks like he's getting confident at the plate. I wouldn't call it luck by any means, he is a big prospect for a reason. Those are impressive numbers for a 22 year old.

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Good hitters develop power. The kid has a good stick.

 

The power will come with time and in the shorter term, warmer weather.

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4 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

I'm looking at launch angle percentage. Someone pointed out that it was 3.7% when he had 0 home runs. As of recently, it went up to 8% or so. League average was 13% or something I believe. He has the power, but it was a matter of putting it up in the air to get it out. You can't get it out if you're hitting it hard into the ground. 

Yep that was me and it has come up. I feel pretty good about him moving forward. His launch angle is currently right where it was his rookie season when he showed plenty of power.

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He absolutely destroyed the ball on that home run. 

I think someone a few weeks ago boldly predicted he won't sniff 20 homers this year.  I didn't think that prediction would age very well and it certainly doesn't look like it will.  

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Posted (edited)

Gotta love the lineup he's playing in too. And a lot of credit to Cora for showing total faith in him during his struggles over the past year, and helping with his defense and not putting too much pressure on the kid.

Exactly how you should manage young kids. Looks like the patience is paying off now.

If we can get 10+SBs from him that would be an added bonus too.

Edited by swfcdan
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2 hours ago, swfcdan said:

Gotta love the lineup he's playing in too. And a lot of credit to Cora for showing total faith in him during his struggles over the past year, and helping with his defense and not putting too much pressure on the kid.

Exactly how you should manage young kids. Looks like the patience is paying off now.

If we can get 10+SBs from him that would be an added bonus too.

Seems like a lock at this point. Looks like the BSOHL reports were true.

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On 5/8/2019 at 4:03 PM, motown magic said:

Last year is History. Nothing matters but this year. If Devers had 4-5 or 6 hrs by now. I would agree he could hit 25 . Sure he may hit 2 in a game here and there. But the empty spots in between are what will hold him back. It also doesn't matter if he hit that ONE hr 459 feet or whatever it was. A homerun 350 counts the same. And what is it like 280 to the Pesky pole? Plus the bullpen wall if what 4 feet high ?

LOL ! Just keep saying over and over. I believe I believe I believe. Then before you know it the calendar will turn to Sept and you"ll see Devers sitting there with 14-15 hrs . Remember. I believe I believe I believe. This holds true for Buxton owners as well.

Bump

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I'm a believer of Devers but I also see a 20 hr season.

 

The kid can have a power surge when he becomes 25-26 and builds his core strength. 

 

Right now, while I still believe this kid will be a perennial all-star with superstar potential, I'm fine with him having a season close to .310/.390/.470 18-20 dingers and 10-15 sb.

 

If he can actually do that, he will become a top-50 player while he is still 23. 

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Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, jhsong916 said:

I'm a believer of Devers but I also see a 20 hr season.

The kid can have a power surge when he becomes 25-26 and builds his core strength. 

Right now, while I still believe this kid will be a perennial all-star with superstar potential, I'm fine with him having a season close to .310/.390/.470 18-20 dingers and 10-15 sb.

If he can actually do that, he will become a top-50 player while he is still 23. 

I don't think you have to wait that long.  His power is there already.  Has been from the beginning.  He just has been hitting more line drives early on this year.  But still with that scary power.

And that is probably because he first has been working on more plate discipline this year which really shows so being in control and barreling the ball etc has been what the coaches have had him do.  Now with more control he can add more lift without getting fooled playing wild whack-a-doodle chasing those low, outside pitches he used to chase last year way too much.  But whatever he hits is already like lightning off the bat.  The guy reeks of power.  He just has to use it in the right way.

He is lucky too in that Alex Cora acts like a father with him and helping him improve on defense and telling him not to get down on himself.  That a lot of great players had tons of errors early on.  Cora sites Wade Boggs a lot as one of those guys who was terrible at 3B early in his career.  JD Martinez spends tons of time with Devers mentoring his hitting.  Kid is very coachable and works lots of extra hours on his craft.  No need to wait until his mid-20's to see him hit his full stride.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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3 hours ago, jhsong916 said:

I'm a believer of Devers but I also see a 20 hr season.

 

The kid can have a power surge when he becomes 25-26 and builds his core strength. 

 

Right now, while I still believe this kid will be a perennial all-star with superstar potential, I'm fine with him having a season close to .310/.390/.470 18-20 dingers and 10-15 sb.

 

If he can actually do that, he will become a top-50 player while he is still 23. 

IF he puts up those numbers you suggest he would be more valuable then Benintendi becaue of his position. AB would probably have a few more steals.

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Let's take a look at his monthly splits.

25,0 LD% in May (25,6% in April)

40,6 GB% in May (53,7% in April)

34,4 FB% in May (20,7% in April)

12,5 Soft% in May (15,7% in April)

12,7 K% in May (16,9% in April)

.219 ISO in May (.078 in April)

.562 SLG in May (.373 in April)

.941 OPS in May (.757 in April)

 

So far this month he's hitting less GB, more FB while maintaining his high LD%, low K% and Soft%. That's a good recipe for hitting for power and average.

All projections have him hitting 17 HR ROS despite his slow start. Projections have him at 5 SB ROS but I'll take the over. I don't think anyone expected him to run as often as he is and why would the BoSox tell him to stop? If he can continue what he's doing so far this month then he'll end up being a 20 HR/10+ SB player while hitting for average. I'll gladly take those numbers.

 

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3 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I don't think you have to wait that long.  His power is there already.  Has been from the beginning.  He just has been hitting more line drives early on this year.  But still with that scary power.

And that is probably because he first has been working on more plate discipline this year which really shows so being in control and barreling the ball etc has been what the coaches have had him do.  Now with more control he can add more lift without getting fooled playing wild whack-a-doodle chasing those low, outside pitches he used to chase last year way too much.  But whatever he hits is already like lightning off the bat.  The guy reeks of power.  He just has to use it in the right way.

He is lucky too in that Alex Cora acts like a father with him and helping him improve on defense and telling him not to get down on himself.  That a lot of great players had tons of errors early on.  Cora sites Wade Boggs a lot as one of those guys who was terrible at 3B early in his career.  JD Martinez spends tons of time with Devers mentoring his hitting.  Kid is very coachable and works lots of extra hours on his craft.  No need to wait until his mid-20's to see him hit his full stride.

Agree with this. He is already crushing the ball. His exit velocity and hard hit rate are both elite so the power is there. At some point he'll likely start turning some of those line drives into fly balls and those fly balls will start leaving the yard regularly. His launch angle is above where it was earlier this year before he hit his first homer, but at 7.1 degrees it's still well below league average (12.7).

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He has really improved against fastballs and offspeed pitches.

Vs fastballs in 2018: .227 AVG, .412 SLG, .311 wOBA, 26,9 K%

Vs fastballs in 2019: .340 AVG, .457 SLG, .389 wOBA, 17,4 K%

Vs offspeed in 2018: .240 AVG, .438 SLG, .296 wOBA, 21,0 K%

Vs offspeed in 2019: .297 AVG, .459 SLG, .333 wOBA, 10,0 K%

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2 for 3 and his 5th HR. If you believed and invested in him, enjoy the ride. Has the makings of something special. 

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3 hours ago, Sonny_D said:

2 for 3 and his 5th HR. If you believed and invested in him, enjoy the ride. Has the makings of something special. 

 

Yep. You can get lucky when it comes to AVG and HR but you can't get lucky when it comes to plate discipline. I'm extremely impressed by how he has lowered his K% by almost 10%. That's crazy.

Last night's HR was a 445 ft bomb at 114.4 mph. Tonight it was a 432 ft bomb at 108.2 mph. Those aren't cheap HR. The kid has legit power folks. Legit power. 

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Posted (edited)
On 4/28/2019 at 1:34 PM, motown magic said:

When Pedroia comes back next week Chavis will either sit or take over at third his natural spot.

Devers is not lifting the ball . He’s doing nothing to keep Chavis from stealing his job . 

 

This is the sort of stuff that makes online discussions, particularly fantasy baseball, so much fun.  

Another great snippet:

Quote

 

On 5/8/2019 motown magic said:

Last year is History. Nothing matters but this year ... LOL ! Just keep saying over and over. I believe I believe I believe. Then before you know it the calendar will turn to Sept and you"ll see Devers sitting there with 14-15 hrs

 

 

Edited by Overlord
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@motown magic

Don't feel too bad, I was prettty down on Devers too.

I didn't double down on my pessimism when he heated up, or triple down when he burst into the fire of a thousand suns like you did, but I admit was pretty disappointed in him a long time ago (in a galaxy far far away!)

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On April 30th he was on pace for 0 HR, 22 SB, 81 Runs and 43 RBI.

On May 22nd he is on pace for 20 HR, 20 SB, 109 Runs and 89 RBI.

giphy.gif

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